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Fantasy Premier League Tips Gameweek 21

Fantasy Premier League Tips Gameweek 21

Fantasy Premier League Tips Gameweek 21

Welcome to Fantasy Premier League Tips Gameweek 21. Just for a change we aren’t going to select players this week, instead we are going to let the game itself select them for us! We are going to take a look at the most transferred IN players for this round. And then we are going to tell you why we think this is and then whether we think thousands of other people are on the right track or whether they have lost their minds! It’s a fair sample selection as well because the transfer window has been open for well over a week already and the top 3 players from each position have attracted over 1.2 million transfers between them and that’s just at the time of writing*. Let’s take a look and see what people are up to…

Goalkeepers


#1 Tom Heaton – 38.020
Price : 4.9m
Ownership : 16.4%
Total Points : 80
Rank : #2 (overall points rank in keepers)
Analysis : To be ranked number 2 in keepers and only be trailing the leader Courtois by 5 points when your own team has conceded twice as many goals and only kept 4 clean sheets as opposed to their 11 is some feat. Now we know Tom is an expert shot stopper but it’s probably just as well as Burnley have conceded 120 shots on target this season at an average of 6 per game. Chelsea by contrast have just 51 against them which is just over 2.5 per game. This may explain then why Heaton has garnered 20 points from saves alone and Courtois just the 7. Heaton seems to attract an unusual amount of bonus points for a keeper too having got the full 3 on no less than 4 occasions. We haven’t checked every keeper in the league but we think we are on safe ground saying that no other has managed double digit points 3 times this season and as a perfect illustration of why clean sheets matter not to him the last time he did this he got 12 points and they got beat 1-0!

They play Southampton at home this week who have failed to score in exactly half of their away games this season and have only scored 9 in the others. For their part Burnley have conceded 11 in 11 at home but have won 7 of those and are ranked 6th overall at home whereas Saints have won just 2 away.

Transfer Rating : 4/5 You can’t argue with his consistency, you just have to rely on save points a bit. Ok, a lot.

#2 Lee Grant – 35,749
Price : 4.4m
Ownership : 7.8%
Total Points : 63
Rank : #8
Analysis : Stoke are away at Sunderland this week so we can only assume that some people have looked at Sunderland’s league position in relations to Grant’s price and decided that buying him for this week was a good idea. Now we aren’t necessarily saying it isn’t but looking ahead Stoke then face Everton, Man Utd, Spurs, Man City and Chelsea in 5 of their next 8 so that’s 5 of the next 8 when you won’t want him playing really! As for his chances this week Stoke have conceded 19 on the road in 10 games with just 2 clean sheets in those games. And they were against Hull and Watford. Sunderland have scored just 13 at home in 10 games but have only actually failed to score twice and even one of those was against Chelsea.

Transfer Rating : 3/5 If you need a budget replacement for someone to release funds then he’s ok. But only ok.

#3 Eldin Jakupovic – 29,921
Price : 3.9m
Ownership : 19.0%
Total Points : 23
Rank : #24
Analysis : Maybe people saw Jakupovic starting against Swansea in the cup and got excited at the prospect of a budget keeper returning to the line-up again. Or maybe it’s simply a case of shaving funds off a more expensive one to enable other moves. Either way it is worth noting that he hasn’t started a league game since GW5 but did feature against Newcastle in their last cup game way back in December so he has been available, he’s just not been selected. Whether the new manager changes that remains to be seen but for now he’s a big risk and unless you desperately need those funds we would look elsewhere as deliberately opting for just one playing keeper isn’t the route we would take to find them.

Transfer Rating : 1/5 As a last ditch attempt to fund a ‘must have’ move elsewhere then yeah go on, otherwise avoid.

Defenders


#1 Charlie Daniels – 116,050
Price : 5.2m
Ownership : 10.8%
Total Points : 88
Rank : #3
Analysis : Now this is a transfer we can really get behind and ticks most if not all of the boxes. Daniels has been Mr Consistent this season in so many aspects – he has 3 assists which puts him joint 2nd amongst defenders, he has 3 goals which is 2nd also, he has 12 bonus point which puts him 5th for those and he has 6 clean sheets which is joint 9th but basically puts him behind only Chelsea, Spurs, and Southampton defenders. Those clean sheet stats are interesting given Bournemouth’s next 3 opponents too. Basically 4 of them have been at home and 2 of their next 3 are just that. The away clean sheets have been against struggling or lower opposition (Stoke and Swansea) and up next for them is Hull away. Given all of the above we feel he is reasonably priced too as he is the only sub 5.5m defender in the top 10 points scorers.

Transfer Rating : 4/5 We like this move and for all the right reasons.

#2 Leighton Baines – 83,436
Price : 5.5m
Ownership : 8.6%
Total Points : 72
Rank : #8
Analysis : This one we can kind of understand, certainly from a form point of view anyway, as he has had a hand in 4 goals in Everton’s last 7 games (2 goals & 2 assists), racking up 11 bonus points in that period, 2 double digit scores and 2 clean sheets in the last 3 games. On the other hand they also play Man City this week who have averaged 2.2 goals per away game this season. We suppose you could argue that you’d be buying Baines for his attacking prowess as much as his defensive points but then City are fairly tight away as well with just 12 in 10 conceded. Long term though Baines looks a great shout as Everton then have a stretch of 8 games in which they play 7 of the current bottom 12 teams.

Transfer Rating : 4/5 We haven’t seen the best of Baines for a good season or even 2 now due to a combination of both injuries and Martinez. Could this be his swansong?

#3 Nathan Ake – 67,881
Price : 4.4m
Ownership : 9.4%
Total Points : 51
Rank : #38
Analysis : Now we can’t tell when these transfers were actually made but we are willing to bet that at least 67,880 of them were prior to the news that Ake had been cruelly snatched back from Bournemouth by his parent club Chelsea. We won’t dwell on him too much as it’s nigh on impossible to predict what his role, if any, will be in the Chelsea set up. At 4.4m though he may be worth hanging onto for a week or two just in case he does indeed force a first team place. We certainly wouldn’t actively purchasing now though. It’s worth noting that if you already owned him prior to him moving back and already owned 3 other Chelsea players your next transfer OUT, whenever that may be, MUST be a Chelsea player.

Transfer Rating : 1/5 Don’t buy him just yet but if he gets a sniff of regular action then he’ll be the bargain of the season!

Midfielders


#1 Dele Alli – 318,782
Price : 8.5m
Ownership : 16.2%
Total Points :115
Rank : #3
Analysis : Probably the least surprising stat of the week is that Mr Alli is the most transferred in player so far and that figure will only rise as the deadline nears. In fact just to illustrate that point, in the short space of time on a Tuesday tea-time and just while we wrote this sole paragraph his transfers in had already jumped up to 319,881! After a relatively slow start to the season with 3 goals up until GW16 something clicked in GW17 and he now has 7 in his last 4, including a brace in each of his last 3 as well as taking 9 bonus points in those games. The only people disappointed with this transfer trend will be those who owned him already as something of a sneaky differential, when Eriksen was looking the way to go for Spurs coverage, or those who don’t have the funds to buy him. You could easily make a case for doubling up with Eriksen as it’s not as if Alli is stealing his thunder, the Viking still has 5 assists, 2 goals and 7 bonus points in his last 5 games.

Transfer Rating : 5/5 If you don’t have him we would seriously be making plans to ensure you do sometime soon.

#2 Matty Phillips – 181,194
Price : 5.8m
Ownership : 17.7%
Total Points : 100
Rank : #7
Analysis : Much like Alli it’s a been a case of a tale of two halves so far this season for Phillips. Only in his case literally so! Up to GW10 he had managed just 24 points, 0 goals, 2 assists and 0 bonus points. Since GW11 he has got 74 points, 4 goals, 7 assists and 12 bonus points. It’s fair to say that he is a man in form then and had his 1st half mirrored his 2nd he’d actually be the top scorer in the game. His immediate fixture is Spurs away who have the meanest defence in the league and have conceded just 0.5 goals per game at home. Much like Baines earlier though he’s a cracking long term prospect with a run up to GW28 which sees them play 6 of the current bottom 11, all of whom are below West Brom themselves.

Transfer Rating : 4/5 He’d be our pick of the ‘budget’ midfielders given both his current form and fixtures ahead.

#3 Robert Snodgrass – 139,296
Price : 5.8m
Ownership : 9.7%
Total Points : 94
Rank : #9
Analysis : Budget midfielders are obviously in vogue as yet another sub 6.0m one makes this weeks list and he is indeed the 3rd most transferred in player of the week thus far. If the other two have only just come to life then Snodgrass has been the more consistent over the piece as his 7 goals, 2 assists and 16 bonus points have been evenly spread out right from GW1 when he scored and took home 10 points right up until last week when he scored and took home 10 points. He’s managed double digits in a quarter of his games. All that is great but forgive us for being a bit more lukewarm on this one than some of the others and that is simply because of his fixtures after this week. It’s Bournemouth at home this week and Hull have scored the majority of their goals at home but even then it’s just at a rate of 1.1 per game. It’s what’s after this one though that concerns us! They play Chelsea, Man Utd, Liverpool and Arsenal and 3 of those are away and Hull have scored just 6 away. Snodgrass himself has returned very little against any top 6 team previously this season with just a goal against Arsenal his only significant contribution.

Transfer Rating : 2.5/5 Feels like a no brainer for this week but beyond that we’d have serious concerns.

Forwards


#1 Jermain Defoe – 124,560
Price : 7.8m
Ownership : 25.7%
Total Points : 113
Rank : #3
Analysis : That Defoe is sat 3rd for points in the forward section is nothing short of a miracle really. That he trails Costa by just 10 points is bloody amazing. We say this not only based upon one team being 1st and the other being 18th but also consider this – Chelsea have scored 42 goals, having had 305 shots with 109 of them being on target. Sunderland have scored just 19 (3rd worst in the league) from 196 shots (3rd worst in the league) and only 60 of those have been on target (2nd worst in the league). That’s just 3 shots on target per game! Of those 19 goals Defoe has had a hand in 14 of them. He’s also 2nd overall in the game for bonus points with 21 to his name. Stoke are the visitors this week and they have let in an average of 1.9 goals per game on the road. We rate this transfer fairly highly as he seems the ideal 3rd striker in that mid-priced range if you are one of those who isn’t willing to completely bastardise their midfield to fit in 3 of the 4 premium forwards. The best thing you can say about Defoe really is that whenever there are games on and you hear Sunderland have scored you just know there’s a bloody big chance it was him!

Transfer Rating : 4/5 As a slightly ‘budget’ 3rd striker who isn’t one of the ‘big 4’ you can’t go wrong with him really.

#2 Olivier Giroud – 107,365
Price : 8.6m
Ownership : 4.9%
Total Points : 63
Rank : #13
Analysis : This is where stats can get thrown out of the window really but we will preface it with saying that we are glad he is in the discussion here and we would thoroughly recommend the transfer if it is viable or suits your needs. Prior to GW18 Giroud hadn’t played more than 30mins in any game. Since then he’s played all 3, scored 3, got 2 assists, 7 bonus points and has averaged 10 points per game. If you pro rata his points per minute this season against Costa he’d have 235 FPL points! His goals per 90mins come out at 1.2 as opposed to Costa’s 0.75, and he’s the leading scorer. That’s where stats lie slightly as we are simply taking a very small sample of an extraordinary patch of form. That said he can only notch when he actually plays and he’s clearly got the bit between his teeth to cement his starting place once more. One glance at his upcoming fixtures and you have to say he could be absolute gold as they include Swansea away (anywhere will do against them!) and Burnley, Watford and Hull at home. Feels almost irresistible.

Transfer Rating : 5/5 5?! Yes 5! That’s how highly we rate both his form and fixtures in tandem.

#3 Diego Costa – 61,983
Price : 10.7m
Ownership : 44.5%
Total Points : 123
Rank : #1
Analysis : The only question here really is what exactly have they been waiting for?! We can only assume that this is a case of those who briefly jumped off him back in GW18 now jumping back on again for the points ride. He’s the 2nd top points scorer in the game behind Sanchez, the leading goal scorer with 14 and has added assists to his repertoire this season with 1 in every 4 games as opposed to his previous of 1 every 4 seasons or so. Ok, we made that final stat of the article up but it feels about right. At 44.5% ownership you’d only be buying him to keep pace really, but that’s as good a reason as losing ground every week.

Transfer Rating : 4/5 If you don’t have him you probably need him just so that you don’t fall further behind those that do.

*all transfer IN numbers, % of ownership and price of players were correct at the time of writing, we appreciate all are a fluid number during the week.

Thanks for reading Fantasy Premier League Tips Gameweek 21. This article was written by Inittowinit


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Fantasy Premier League Tips Gameweek 21

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317 Comments

  1. 13

    So it looks like Carrol to Giroud and Alonso to a 4.4 defender, suggestions please. Already have McAuley, Williams, Pieters and Kingsley. Cheers.

  2. 14
  3. 15

    Absolutely love what you have done here Init (even if I am slightly jealous that I never thought of it first) :)

    Great format – look at the most popular picks and add your own research and rating to them. Fresh!

    Thanks very much my good sir. :thumbup:

  4. 16
    Colriles says:

    Gotta echo the sentiments of everyone else today, top shelf article Innit. Great format and great insight.

    Getting a little nervous about my def of Vert, Alonso and Ake (Nyom & Amat bench) this weekend. Do I take a -4 for Alonso > Kosc/Monreal or some other upgrade? Cheers.

    0FT, 0.1 itb.
    Grant, Pick
    Vert, Alonso, Ake, Nyom, Amat
    Sanchez, Haz, Eriksen, Phillips, Capoue
    Ibra, Defoe, Gray

    • 16.1
      inittowinit says:

      Cheers Col, not read back over them all yet but I believe there were some interesting ones! Should be fun :)

      Yeah your defence is looking a bit ragged there but I probably wouldn’t take a hit. At least not just yet. Wait on the Alonso news, if he’s out I suspect Ake may get that spot, ironically! I’ve still not seen proof that Nyom escaped alive though!

      • DMC says:

        FPL odds on him bean a meal are now on 75% and he seems to have posted something weird about his hat on twitter so there are signs that he may have just scrapped through that canibal lot! We just don’t know if his legs did!

  5. 17
    Andy says:

    Coutinho’s finally back in the Liverpool squad, it’s doubtful that many will take the plunge before the Man Utd game but with both Swansea and Hull in two out of the following three he’ll maybe top my transfer wish list for GW 22.

  6. 18
    Mitro says:

    Cheers init, actually tempted to take a punt on snodgrass this week

    • 18.1
      inittowinit says:

      Instead of…. ?!

      Either way I like the pick just for this week and you should be fine selling him again the week after. You know how the old saying goes, ‘Snoddy’s are just for Christmas, Alli’s are for life’ ;)

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