Fantasy Premier League Tips Gameweek 30
Welcome to Fantasy Premier League Tips Gameweek 30. With the announcement of the majority of the upcoming DGW’s we are going to split this weeks Tips article into two sections. We will look at DGW34 a bit, as that one is nearest, and assess which teams and players involved in that one may be worth planning ahead for now in terms of bringing them in gradually over the next few weeks. We will then go on to look at this week specifically and who we would be looking at for GW30. It’ll be a juggling act over the coming games trying to accommodate both aspects so we may as well begin at the earliest opportunity and you can at least start to practice how to marry the two things up into a coherent fantasy team for the weeks ahead.
Let’s just get this out of the way right now – DGW34 does not look overly enticing. It’s certainly not displaying the sexiness that you normally associate with the word ‘DGW’. When you hear that word you probably dream of say Man City having something like Sunderland and Stoke, and then being able to unleash Aguero as Triple Captain. Oh, hang on…………… Too soon?! Whatever. It happened. 27 points is your target for that one by the way. And that may prove to be a lesson in and of itself really – if you can’t trust Man City / Aguero in a DGW then can you trust say Middlesbrough and Crystal Palace? Another lesson from the previous one, or at least a reminder, was of course rotation. Just ask Sterling owners… still too soon?!
The infographic above shows which teams are scheduled for doubles and which are still awaiting a new date. The Fixture Tracker at the foot of the article goes a step further and actually places the other games where we think they will land (all in 37 except the one). We shall now take a brief look at each team with a double in DGW34, their fixtures in that week itself, their fixtures prior to it and their fixtures after it, along with a brief comment on all of those things.
DGW34 Fixtures – LIV (A), TOT (H)
If you had to hand pick DGW fixtures then the pair they have been landed with wouldn’t be on the top of your shopping list by a long stretch. It’s difficult to argue that loading up on Palace players would be a good idea looking at those, despite their recent mini resurgence with 4 wins in their last 6. It’s probably worth pointing out though that none of those games were against a top 7 side. They even managed to lose to both Stoke and Sunderland in that run. 0-4 to Sunderland as well! At home…
The last time they faced a top 7 side was just prior to that run and they lost it. In fact they have played the top 7 teams 8 times and lost 7 and drawn 1. Both of their DGW fixtures are against top 7 teams. Which leads us onto their games before and after DGW34 which is also key when deciding whether to chance your arm with them, and when.
Prior to DGW34 – CHE (A), SOU (A), ARS (H), LEI (H)
After DGW34 – BUR (H), MCY (A), HUL (H), MUN (A)
Looking at that then they face top 7 teams in half of those games, and even outside of that going to Southampton is tough, and Leicester are suddenly playing like one again.
Loading up prior doesn’t seem to be a viable option here. If you do decide to chance your arm on a PvA, Zaha or Benteke for the DGW itself (they’d be the only ones we’d even consider) then we’d wait until the week itself. After it you could argue that they have Burnley and Hull in two of the next three, which doesn’t seem too bad at all.
DGW34 Fixtures – BUR (A), MCY (A)
On the face of it that’s two tough away games for United come DGW34 but let’s dig a little and see if we can’t shine some optimism on the situation. When you look at the league tables based on home and away results separately then United are actually sat third for away games alone. They have earned more points away and scored more goals away than they have at Old Trafford. They also sit joint 1st for away goals (not) conceded with just 13 against them. In fact it’s their home form which has cost them this season as had they converted those 7 home draws (top of that particular table) into wins, which Chelsea did (0 draws at home), they’d be troubling Conte greatly with 66 points and in 2nd.
Looking at their opposition in DGW34, Burnley and Man City, in respect of their home form they sit 6th and 8th in the ‘home only’ table, so not too shabby. Burnley have earned 91% of their points and scored 71% of their goals at home. But that probably says more about their abysmal away form than anything else.
Prior to DGW34 – WBA (H), EVE (H), SUN (A), CHE (H)
After DGW34 – SWA (H), ARS (A), TOT (A) & SOT (A), CRY (H)
You can probably get away with this one, in terms of bringing them in now, as they have two decent looking games and two tough ones but even the latter are both at home. Exiting the DGW they then have Swansea at home so that’s fine too. After that it’s mixed again plus they’ll be involved in the latter stages of some important cup competitions by then also but you can deal with that as and when.
Buying ahead for the DGW now looks fine, buying for it itself looks ok and surviving after it looks safe enough. This is probably mainly about whether to buy Valencia, or a similar defender, and whether to buy Ibra. In terms of those two then both defending and scoring on the road isn’t an issue and the fixtures overall look like a good mix. You will of course have to wait until GW31 for Ibra as he is still suspended for this week.
DGW34 Fixtures – BOU (A), SUN (H)
The double itself looks fairly decent for ‘Boro. Certainly, as decent as any pair of fixtures can for a side in 19th who have scored the least goals in the league, anyway. On the plus side they’ll have a new manager if anybody is mad or desperate enough to hang their hat on it. Plus they have a lot to play for, which often counts for a lot now as we enter the ‘mid table teams preparing for the beach’ section of the season. Unfortunately neither opponent will be turning up wearing shades and a sombrero though as both will still be needing points themselves you’d expect.
Prior to DGW34 – SWA (A), HUL (A), BUR (H), ARS (H)
After DGW34 – MCY (H), CHE (A), SOT (H), LIV (A)
You know when your other half buys that expensive dress for the all important wedding that you are attending in a few weeks, knowing full well she can’t actually afford it, and then returns it the day after as if it’s the wrong size or something. But she still can’t resist wearing it a few times prior to said wedding…
If you didn’t get it from the analogy then yeah buy now by all means, wear them a little before, be resplendent during it, but by God make sure you return them immediately.
If ‘Boro are to somehow survive then the next six games are key and with a new manager there may be that typical bounce, so taking them now with a few good fixtures ahead may be a wise move ahead of their DGW (this isn’t just me… Guy said it as well here, just don’t forget that he said it first when it all goes t*ts up!). But yeah, don’t take too many ‘Boro players and be prepared to sell or at least bench them after it as that run in looks bloody horrendous! For the record Valdes, Gibson and Negredo are the only ones we would even consider.
Having spoken somewhat about future transfers we are now going to flip this on its head and focus solely on GW30 itself. Call it one hit wonders, call it Bingo Bango, call it what you like but these are the players we would pick up if we had the chance this week along with a little bit of reasoning why.
And if you unsure as to whether they would be worth it for a hit then we’d we also recommend you not only review our article on that subject which we published over the break but we’d also advise you to review the comments after it as there were some very strong and passionate responses on both sides of the ‘hit’ fence!
Thibaut Courtois £5.9m vs Crystal Palace (H)
Assuming he’s fit then Courtois is our number one pick this week in goals. He probably should be every week really as he and Chelsea top every stat league going for goals not conceded! Just the 8 against at home which is an average of 0.6 per game. If he isn’t fit then…
David de Gea £5.4m vs West Brom DDG has just 5 cleans sheets at home this season which is surprisingly low but looking at the stats it could very well have been so many more as they have conceded just once on 8 occasions and only conceded more than that on one occasion which was against Man City when they conceded 2. All that suggests that the basics are there and this weeks opponents have only scored 12 away all season. All of them scored by Gareth McAuley, according to urban myth….
Gary Cahill £6.6m vs Crystal Palace
Read above for clean sheets stats of course but Cahill also offers a goal threat. He has 4 so far but also has a couple in the cups. He’s 0.2m cheaper than Alonso and leads him in points mainly because he’s attracted more bonus points so far. He’s a touch more expensive than Luiz but leads him in overall points by more than 30.
Christian Fuchs 5.2m vs Stoke (H)
The Champions are back! The good news is that they’ve scored 9 in the last 3. And they hadn’t scored in 6 games prior to that, which stretches back until 2016. The bad news, for this particular selection at least, is that they’ve also conceded in all of those and their last PL clean sheet was on the 2nd Jan. Against Middlesbrough, of course. Who hasn’t! From small acorns and all that though… The next two are at home against Stoke and Sunderland so if ever there was a time to break that duck…
Eden Hazard £10.2m vs Crystal Palace
Look. Just stop fannying about with your ‘Pedro / Moses / Willian’ can cover for Hazard nonsense. Let’s go all Rafa on you with facts here –
Hazard – 163 points
Pedro – 124 points
Moses – 90 points
Willian – 87 points
Yeah sure, they’re all a fair bit cheaper but Hazard is proving the old adage that you get what you pay for.
Riyad Mahrez £8.9m vs Stoke (H)
The Champions are back! The good news is that they’ve scored 9 in the last 3…
Yeah we know you may have heard all this before (somewhere), but this time it’s relevant!
Last season’s bargain basement fantasy best mate has been something of an absentee this year but low and behold he’s suddenly piped up again to coincide with the overall revival, and with 2 goals in the last 2 games, and being on penalty duties, and being Leicester’s highest FPL midfield points scorer, and being owned by just 8.5% of teams (most of whom will be ghost teams picked in GW1!), maybe you can steal a march on rivals here with a sleeping giant awakening?
Gylfi Sigurdsson £7.8m vs Middlesbrough (H)
W, L, W, W, L, W, L, W , L, L…. #inconsistent?
To be fair to Swansea, up until those last two defeats they’d actually been consistent in respect of the results you’d maybe expect them to get – the losses were against Aresnal, Man City and Chelsea. In the win column they even recorded an improbable one against Liverpool so all was going well up until two weeks ago. Now if ever there was a chance to get back on the horse it is Middlesbrough at home and we are backing them to do so.
As for Gylfi himself he’s contributed a goal or assist in 7 of their last 8 games which is equivalent to having a hand in 7 of their last 13 goals which is just about par the course for him this season as he’s had a hand in 19 of their 36 in total. A touch over 50%. Not many players can boast that. If any. I’m not checking them all, before you ask!
Diego Costa £10.7m vs Crystal Palace
‘Mr Consistent, yet not Mr Explosive’ now has 17 goals and 7 assists in 27 games played. He’s only posted double digits on three occasions though and has never scored more than 12 points when doing so. If you like slow and steady then Mr Costa is your man. But don’t underestimate slow and consistent – only 4 other players have scored more FPL points than him this season. And only one of those makees it into our Tips article this week. (It’s Hazard to save you guessing or researching).
Fernando Llorente £6.5 vs Middlesbrough(H)
The strange case of Fernando. Since he finally starting getting regular minutes / starts in GW20 Fernando has scored 5 times in 10 weeks. Prior to that he was used sporadically and yet notched 6 times. Just don’t expect any assists though as the selfish git seems to simply stand in the 6 yard box and wait for stuff on a plate before shooting. Assist wise he’s somehow managed 2 all season and without reviewing them we will just assume that both were shots which were deflected in. We’d still take him this week though. Because of Middlesbrough.
Jamie Vardy £9.8m vs Stoke (H)
3 goals and 2 assists in his last 3 games. We don’t know what Mr Shakespeare has done but whatever it is, it’s working a treat. Some kind of Men In Black memory erasing device which goes back to May 2016 specifically we assume. Vardy and co look ready to party again and the Bard is just 4 games away from the Champions League final… It probably won’t happen but then again they probably shouldn’t have even been in with a shout of winning the league last season…
Thanks for reading Fantasy Premier League Tips Gameweek 30. This article was written by Inittowinit
The Tracker in full…
DGW34 IS ON THERE AS CONFIRMED BUT DGW37 IS VERY MUCH PROVISIONAL!
That’s our best guess as to how it will pan out and there is still Southampton vs Arsenal to be rearranged. That looks likely to be in GW35 or 36. The FPL site itself has said that they expect the remaining games to be confirmed on or around the 7th April.
Teams with DGW’s ahead… (with thanks to Rosco)
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