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FPL Fixtures Analysis Gameweek 29

FPL Fixtures Analysis Gameweek 29

FPL Fixtures Analysis Gameweek 29

Welcome to FPL Fixtures Analysis Gameweek 29. Did you all enjoy your four games last weekend? How much fun was that to have so many blank spots in your roster? And in typical FPL fashion, nothing worked out like we thought it should. But one brave soul out there put the screws to the game in his own unique way: the ‘highest’ score over the weekend scored 115 points, took a -52 to do so…and played his bench boost. See? That’s living, folks. Say what you will about how stupid that move is, but that football fan had fun this weekend.

But we can finally start to get things back to normal now, and I think that’s a welcome change. All teams are back in action, we actually have some games that you’d want to sit down and watch, and we can start to forget about how the Premiership tried to hijack our season with some last-minute scheduling changes that even the MLS had to respect. So let’s just get to the meat of the article, because I don’t know how it works in the UK, but Americans just set their clocks ahead an hour – and losing an hour of sleep has sapped my powers of preamble.

Top 3 Best Bets:

#1) Chelsea – STK (A), CRY (H), MCI (H)

Let’s start with the obvious here: Chelsea are 10 points clear at the top of the table and have shown themselves to be the very best that the Premier League has to offer this year. That’s not to say I’m a fan per se, but when the best team in the league makes their standing so obvious, it makes writing a fixtures articles a bit easier. Because truth is, most games will be favourable to a Chelsea side – especially when they have 2 out of 3 of their next games at home.

Just so you know, Chelsea have had 13 games at home so far this year and they’ve only lost 1 – the other 12 games were all wins. And it’s not that Chelsea just sneak by in their home games, they’re completely dominant in most cases. In the 12 games they won at home this year, they’ve managed to secure 7 clean sheets and have won by a total margin of 36-8. That type of form is just ridiculous, it’s almost like they’re playing FIFA on easy mode.

So, do we worry about Stoke away? Not so much. Of all of the teams in the top half of the table, Stoke are the worst with a -8 goal differential. And it’s not like they’ve made their home turf much of a fortress, at least not against the bigger clubs. Sure, Stoke have kept clean sheets in wins recently against Middlesbrough, Palace and Watford – but it’s a different story for them this year when they play clubs with a bit more substance. Stoke have lost 0-4 twice to Spurs this year, they’ve lost to City 1-4 and they’ve also lost to Chelsea 2-4. So yeah, when the big games come around, better teams will absolutely tag them.

As for Palace, they’re now just a point above relegation and going away to Chelsea isn’t going to do them a whole lot of good in staying afloat. And as for City travelling to Chelsea, well they still have Chelsea’s massive home favour to overcome. And Chelsea have already beat City this season 3-1, so there’s not much saying that City should be favoured at much more than a lucky draw here.

#2) Arsenal – WBA (A), MCI (H), WHU (H)

Now this is going to be one of those cases where I have to qualify that this team “on paper” should have a favourable run of fixtures here. But we all know that Arsenal are a bit of a head case again. Their coach is once more the target of the fans. Their best players are in turmoil and their contracts are winding down without much hope of early renewals. And they were completely embarrassed in the Champions League. But, like we saw against Lincoln in the FA Cup, this team is still dangerous enough to take care of business against lesser opponents when they’re up for it.

Will Arsenal fare well against City at home? They have the ability, and maybe that’s all we can say about that. But can they get some easy wins against West Brom and West Ham? They absolutely should. If nothing else, even if the Arsenal players aren’t playing for the love of club anymore, they are at least playing to audition for life elsewhere – and that’s as key for motivation as anything else I suppose.

West Brom were fantasy darlings for a minute with all of the goals that their defenders were giving. But they’ve gone two straight matches now being shutout themselves, and it looks like other Premier League teams have sort of figured them out at this point. They lost 0-2 to Palace and 0-3 to Everton in their most recent games and they didn’t look anything like the side we thought them to be just a month ago. Arsenal can probably build on that momentum and push them down even further. And as for West Ham, they’re winless in their last four. And even though they haven’t been shutout in any of their most recent games, they absolutely can’t stop anybody from scoring. Even Arsenal on a mediocre day should be able to secure a result against that defence.

#3) Leicester – WHU (A), STK (H), SUN (H)

I know, right? Leicester? For real?

Yeah, I think so. I mean, I could’ve put Man United here with their schedule, but with Zlatan missing games it felt like too much of a crapshoot. I could’ve put Everton here even, but I’m sure you’re all tired of me talking about how wonderful Everton are by now (but seriously, Everton are super awesome at the moment). Heck, I could’ve even put a team like Watford or Burnley in this spot just going off of the schedule.

But Leicester have changed their ways and deserve a second look now. Remember when Leicester couldn’t score? Like, they seriously couldn’t score to save their lives. And then they fired their most beloved of coaches, and the players were sad and the fans were devastated…but they started scoring again. And not only scoring, they were winning?!

Leicester’s last two matches have both resulted in 3-1 victories (over Liverpool and Palace), and the goalscorers look like they’re straight out of 2016. Vardy, Mahrez and Fuchs, all mainstays in teams last year, are now on the goals again. Vardy went 10 straight weeks in the game without scoring over 2 points in any game, and now he has 18 points in his last 2? I know this isn’t a tips article, but from a fixtures standpoint, any team that can turn things around so abruptly at least deserves a shout.

We just covered West Ham above, and like I said, they can’t stop anybody from scoring right now. Even when teams seemingly miss a penalty on purpose, West Ham still let them get that goal back just to be sporting. We’ve covered Stoke above too, and even though these two teams are probably evenly matched, Stoke will struggle if Leicester are able to hang 3 on West Ham. A team on that kind of roll will be hard to handle. And Sunderland are still Sunderland. Everybody beats Sunderland. Call me crazy, but Leicester have a fine chance at 9 points here in this run of fixtures and could get somewhere between 6-8 goals if their form continues.

Teams To Avoid:

#1) Man City – LIV (H), ARS (A), CHE (A)

Man City have the hardest schedule of any team on the board. I don’t think anybody could question that. And if you look at each game individually, you can make a case for how City could come out and win that one game. You could look at Liverpool’s tendency to not press their advantage when they clearly have the chance to break. You could look at Arsenal’s mental state right now. I don’t know what you’d say about Chelsea, that’s just a tough game. But you could make cases for each game one by one. But when you aggregate the schedule as a whole, it’s a bleak picture. Sure, City have the talent to beat anybody on their day. But to say that they’ll do it three times in a row is a bit of a stretch for me. Any team in the league with this schedule would be put here in this spot on my list. This week it just happens to be City.

#2) West Brom – ARS (H), MUN (A), WAT (A)

I touched on this a bit above, but West Brom have been found out to some degree. Their defenders had been their biggest source of goal scoring for a while now, and opposition teams have found a way to shut that down lately. And if the defenders aren’t scoring, who’s going to score for this team? Rondon? Chadli? Hardly. Playing Arsenal and United would be bad enough, but if you don’t have any real offence to counter with, what have you got? Maybe WBA come out of this with 2-3 points – but that’s a big maybe.

#3) Liverpool – MCI (A), EVE (H), BOU (H)

This isn’t a dig at Liverpool, but they’ve been wildly inconsistent as of late. And the problem is that I don’t think there’s a team that has more of a ‘feast or famine’ approach to their style of play than Liverpool do. When Liverpool are on their game and it works, it really works. But when they’re just a tad off, it makes you wonder how the team is even in the top half, much less in the top 4. I think this will be a tough schedule for Liverpool. City will be motivated to get just a couple more wins under their belt to secure their top 4 spot, and Everton will be up for the Derby and are in fine form themselves. The thing is, Liverpool could come away from this schedule with 0 points or 9 points – and they’ll look completely in their element achieving either result. They’re not a bad team, they’re just a team of peaks and valleys right now, so I can’t recommend them on this stretch of fixtures.

The Tracker in full…

FPL Fixtures Analysis Gameweek 27

FT Diff

Thanks for reading FPL Fixtures Analysis Gameweek 29. This article was written by Guy Sanchez

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  1. Simply put i an in trouble if those oranges do not dissapear!
    Whats the latest on Kane?
    Any advice? Rank 28k overall and leading all my ML so need to stay ahead.

    • Hi charlcupido. It’s being reported that Llorente is looking OK for the weekend and Ben Dinnery says Snodgrass is 50/50 at this point. Not sure on Firmino but he was close last GW so I think he may be alright for the weekend as well. I’d say your most pressing concern is Kane. If you just have the 1 FT I’d look at moving him on. Next thing for me would be getting a couple of those Liverpool mids out for one of Eriksen/Alli/Son and one of Hazard/Sanchez (or Pedro if funds don’t allow). Nice rank btw, good luck this weekend.

      • Thanks alot Red, the plan was to get rid of coutinho forr either Ali/Pedro but Kane to Costa seems more pressing.
        Sanchez definately on his way back in my team

  2. Think Poch said Kane is definetly out for next match and got injured on the same leg or something like that, which kept him injured at the start of the season so should be out for longer time ! Firmino and Llorenter should be fine for next games imo. Would get Costa for Kane and get rid of one of the Pool mids don’t know if for a hit or not but 3 is overdose

  3. Hey guys, how’s it going? We’re in the middle of a massive blizzard here in the Northeast US, calling for 24+ inches of snow where I live. Kinda funny since I was out walking with my kid in a short sleeve shirt just last week, lol. What are people thinking of for transfers so far? I’ve got Brunt, Funes Mori, and Coutinho topping my list of problems. Would love to use my FT to ditch Coutinho but I’m afraid FM has lost his starting spot and Brunt’s fixtures (if he starts) are awful. With 5.9 to spend is Valencia my best option? I could take a hit and do Coutinho + Brunt out for Pedro/Son and Walker, but I’m not sure I want to eat that -4. Anyone thinking about bringing Son in? Great value if he starts and Kane is out for a while.

    • Hi Red. That makes it two then on the ‘covered with snow front’, it’s you and the Premier League fixtures… :)
      As it stands, spurs have a blank in 5 weeks time. Surely that’s very far away but if you have others that also blank and you want to save the WC+BB for 37 than maybe don’t pile up too much on those blanking (or wait for further news on that). Point being, maybe Walker, maybe Son, but not both, especially given that you seem to already have Eriksen.

      • Hey DMC, good to see you on the boards. Did you survive gw 28 OK? The Liverpool boys let me down big time but prior planning got me through better than many it seems. Yeah, that’s a good point about loading up on Spurs players. Think I may go with Valencia as United have a few good fixtures and some DGWs on the horizon. I wonder if Kane being out makes means it’s better to have Walker for the defensive aspect or if Alli/Son will profit more in Kane’s absence. What are you thinking about for transfers this week?

        • Cheers Red. I did survive. Got to 53(-4) and saw some much needed green arrows while also cutting ML gap to 45 pts. This will be a formality now looking at our respective teams.
          As for spurs I’m a bit torned here. I was ready to jump on Kane+Alli again but this injury to Kane doesn’t suit that plan. I would probably consider Davies then (4.7) for some cleanies which I sense they’ll keep getting. Son could be a gem but if I was buying right now I would probably still favor Alli given his ownership.
          For this week I am actually planning on saving it. I have a decent starting XI with no other pressing issues than Llorente being a doubt and I feel those 2FT will be very handy come gw 30 in two weeks time. By then, we’ll probably have a better view schedule wise and if that’s the case I could even take a hit but that would be for 3 new players which is always a big boost.
          I think we need that flexibility now, if our teams allow it. You do have a few more troubles though so maybe someone like the said Davies for Funes Mori is a good move? Valencia is good if you are looking for attacking returns but in that price bracket I would just get Coleman. He adds the cleanies and bps while Valencia not so much.

        • Nice one DMC. If you can save it I definitely would, and it sounds like Llorente has a good chance to be fit for the weekend. I actually already have Coleman, went for the double up with him and FM weeks ago setting up for gw28. I think I’m going to sit tight with the Spurs players and see how they line up and play this week. I already have Eriksen so that’s enough for now. Davies is a great call, might be a little risky with Rose getting closer though. Anyway, thanks for your thoughts. We’ll see what new info and dramas unfold before the deadline, bound to be something I’m sure! :D

        • Hey guys just to add what you wete saying regarding gw34 and the cancelled fixtures due to the fa cup,it was my belief that those fixtures would be moved to the following midweek,so they would still actually be in gw34.This has to be confirmed though from the f.a.

        • That was mooted initially and it’s the main reason I left the tracker alone for now. There seem to be all sorts of scenarios and speculation flying around twitter about what could go where and when but as you say until anything is confirmed there’s not much point planning for anything.

  4. All the deferred games are doing my head. I think I have the ‘big’ teams tracked, but not their opponents. Does anyone have a full list of the deferred fixtures? Many thanks.

    • Ki – I’m sure the lads will update the fixtures table in what regards gw34 soon.

    • Ki the deferred games are on the attached picture plus the new ones going from GW34 –

      Chelsea v Southampton
      Spurs v Leicester
      Arsenal v Sunderland
      Man City v Gareth McAuley

      I’ll update the tracker at some point in the next few days and will update the pic below to one of our own and include the above.

      • Hey Init, had a spare last hour at work so knocked up a chart for the above as I thought it might help me plan for the remainder of the season early doors. Think I’ve covered all the fixtures does this look about right?

      • Updated I noticed a I had duplicated the wrong names in the West From Fixtures!

        • You mean Gareth McAuley! :) Great stuff Rosco, appreciate the effort. This is going to get nasty!

        • That’s very cool Rosco. Mind if we use that and put it on the articles below the Tracker?

        • Awesome stuff !

      • No course not, just noticed a typo in the headline so I’ll correct that and send you an amended version in the morning – or just crop the top off!

      • East? You got me, have I made a mistake?

        • just poking fun.

        • Ha ha now I get it! I noticed my iPhone had auto corrected Brom, sometimes it would be handy to have an ‘edit’ feature in the comments section!

        • Like in the screenshot above? ;)

  5. Init,

    Thanks, as always.

  6. Thoughts on this team gents
    3.2mn in the bank
    cheers :)

    • Nishant

      Great defence and Mids
      Not keen on Vardy & Rashford however could be a good differential.
      Could you do Vardy > Costa and or Rashford > Gabi?
      Maybe even Fraser > King.

    • Why is Vardy in your team?

  7. For those who haven’t used their WC when are you planning to activate it?

    • jogabonito – before the caos that we now live in I was going to do it in 36 to prepare a BB in 37. I don’t now anymore. What I do know is that I will keep that strategy, that is, to play it prior to the week I plan to BB.

    • Snap with DMC. Whenever the bigger DGW is I’ll be using it the week prior.

    • I’m using mine this week. I figure that most changes coming up will result in additions to the schedule – and not as many subtractions.

      But I’m in a H2H at work and I had to move quickly to get back to 1st.

      • Guy – don’t forget FPL hasn’t changed into FMLS in what regards wildcarding every week! :) Why would you WC prior do an IB?

  8. Guy,

    Appreciate the article as ever mate.

    Don’t see anything wrong with that at all. Must be fun to write about Leicester after sooooo long?


    • I have a feeling we’ll see more articles on that from tonight and on. Can they reach the freaking final 8 in Europe?
      On that note, anyone changing capos in UCL fantasy? I had Robben (7), then Messi (6) and have it on Pjanic right now.

    • Yeah, I like when I get to write about changing storylines as opposed to swapping in and out teams from the top 4 exclusively. But as fun as it is to write about Leicester, it’s going to be so much more fun to write about Everton when they get into Euro spots. Oh yeah, it’s going to happen.

  9. Hola, ladies and gentleman. Keep cappo on Messi, he got 1 goala nd 6 point or go for someone like ummm Andre Silva tonight and Griezmann tomorrow?

    • Given that you have Griez I’d surely change it from Messi. Silva is worth a shout – he’s on penos.

      • Tnx mae. I sor of hope he will get a penalty. If he scores I get poins, if Buffon stops it, I also get points. HAHA. ;)

  10. Evening. It’s just dawned on me what Lukaku’s refusual to sign a new Everton contract might mean for us FPL managers.

    He’s playing at home again this weekend and surely won’t get a good reception… Koeman, although it would be quite wreckless, might even drop him! Doubt it but, still, this could make me take the captaincy off him.

    • Humm when is his current contract due?

      • He has two years remaining on his current one apparently, but I suspect it’s more the statement of intent which will hurt Everton fans, and it kinda shits on Koeman’s long-term plans.

        • Humm two years is a bit too much to initiate bulling treatments etc but I see your point. Certainly cools a bit the relationship with the fans.

        • I’ve seen some Everton accounts on Twitter already labelling him as a snake, calling for him to be dropped for the rest of the season, etc. but hopefully he’ll keep on producing!

        • Will you be putting him in your Captain article this week though?! ;)

        • This week? Shit! My phone’s been dead for a while now so I’ve had no access to WhatsApp.

          Can you drop me an email with the schedule / due dates please?

        • Yeah sure, it’s below :)

        • Cheers.

        • Cheer up, I’m only kidding ;)

    • Koeman won’t drop Lukaku unless he shows signs of not working for the team. You don’t drop one of your best players.

  11. Some thoughts for the upcoming GW. Moses is flagged with a calf injury I believe. Would Ake replace him? Think I might play him in case he does! Also, don’t know if people are seeing Dembele also injured his ankle. Spurs struggle without him, let alone him and Kane! Already have Alli but might hold off on bringing in Son now.

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