FPL Fixtures Analysis Gameweek 36
Welcome to FPL Fixtures Analysis Gameweek 36. We’re very nearly there, the finish line is so very close. With just three more gameweeks to go, and a slew of of DGWs thrown in there, this end to the year will be one of the most eventful we’ve seen in some time. And with all of the doubles available, it’s sort of exciting in the sense that there’s still room for some movement in the ranks in these last days of the league.
But with the gluttony of DGWs, there is also the option to choose your teams poorly – the end of the season definitely has the feel that there is a right and wrong answer to the problem of building your team, doesn’t it? You’ll notice that I haven’t included Southampton nor Arsenal in my best bets section this week. I’m not putting them down as teams to avoid, but I feel like they’re going to be a sucker bet for people thinking that their next two rounds will have unlimited potential for points. Maybe I’m just getting cranky in my old age, or maybe the MLS has killed off my love of DGWs altogether. I’m not sure. But if you roll into this week with six total Arsenal and Southampton players in your team, just know that I’m somewhere shaking my head at you. Not only shaking my head, but wagging my finger also. That’s how you know I’m truly mad. Don’t make me wag the finger at you. Be smart.
Top 3 Best Bets
#1) Chelsea – MID (H), WBA (A), WAT (H), SUN (H)
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[/three_fifth]Chelsea are 4 points ahead of Tottenham at the moment, and that means that all they need to clinch the title is to win three of their next four matches. And without giving a ton of preamble about how great Chelsea are, let’s just look at their opponents first. Now seeing that list, you tell me if there’s any way that one of those teams has a chance against Chelsea. I mean, this is the bingo bango bongo pick of all time. Three home games, all against inferior teams…and they get to play Sunderland? This is such a no-brainer that it would be insulting to your intelligence if I somehow had to ‘make a case’ for Chelsea being the odds on favourite for the pick of the week.
So I won’t. I’m not going to advocate for Chelsea here in the hopes that you’ll stack three of their players on your team instead of going hard on Arsenal (“…but Guy, they have two DGW’s!”). I tend to figure that if you select Arsenal and Southampton at the cost of not maxing out your Chelsea allotment, you kind of deserve whatever you get. Now I’m not saying you shouldn’t have Arsenal/Southy players on your squad, just make sure you have the proven winners in your side first.
Again, I’m not making a case for Chelsea, you’re too smart for that. I’m just telling you what you already know. But when the leading scorers in the league (72 GF) get this kind of schedule, you have to take notice. Not a single one of their opponents has a positive GD in this stretch, and Chelsea just aren’t going to leave points on the table against that level of competition.
#2) Tottenham – WHU (A), MUN (H), LEI (A), HUL (A)
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[/three_fifth]If Chelsea are #1 in the list, Spurs are probably more of a #1A than #2. But due to strict internet guidelines, I’m not legally allowed to make picks as such, there has to be a clear order involved when making rankings. So even though Chelsea seemingly have this season wrapped up, and they have the best schedule possible, Spurs are still refusing to concede points and continue to steamroll through their own schedule. And they seemingly have everything going right for them at the moment; from top to bottom, there isn’t a real weak link in their style of play.
Their attack is consistent; between Kane, Alli, Eriksen and Son, there doesn’t seem to be any real chance that this team won’t put goals through every single match. Their defence is amazing; we know that their overall record for GA is phenomenal (only 22GA through 34 games), but they’re also on another run of form having not conceded a goal in their last four matches. So like I said, there isn’t a facet of this team that isn’t going to return fantasy points in some fashion or another. Both front and back, they’ve really been the best bet all season.
And when you look at this schedule, it’s hard to see where this team doesn’t wrap up their season grabbing the final 12 points available. West Ham are coming off of back to back nil-nil draws and can’t get any traction at the moment – and prior to that they failed to beat Sunderland in another draw, and not beating Sunderland is just not allowable. So the Hammers aren’t really a worry home or away for Spurs. Man United are a MASH unit right now. They may have to spring a bit of a surprise or two in attack based on their needs, but they’re stretched so thin at the back that Spurs should outscore them anyway. Leicester are overmatched here, no worries so far on that game. And finally, Hull? No chance.
#3) Man City – CRY (H), LEI (H), WBA (H), WAT (A)
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[/three_fifth]It’s almost not even fair that three of the top teams in the league have such easy schedules to end the year. But Man City, like Chelsea and Tottenham, can’t be denied a spot in the rankings this week. The real problem is figuring out how you’re going to afford all the players from these three teams. Oh that’s right, you’re going to pick up Arsenal and Southampton on the cheap (“Back to back DGW’s, baby! Woooo!”). And I get it, I have Gabbiadini in my team too, and he’s just swell lately, isn’t he?
Listen, all of the personal dialogue in this article is kind of like what you’d hear in a bad movie. I’m that drunken father character berating his oldest son, telling him how worthless he is and how he’ll never amount to nuthin’. But the audience, savvy as they are, know that the father isn’t talking to the son, he’s talking to himself. And that’s deep.
So let me tell you, dear reader, I’m not making fun of you for thinking that Southampton and Arsenal are better than my picks here. I have Gabbiadini and…Walcott…on my team. And I’m ashamed of myself. Just don’t make the same mistakes I’ve made. I’ll sober up, you’ll go off to college and make a name for this family. And our fantasy teams will be the talk of the town for years to come. You’ll see.
…Ok, so back to the actual advice in this article. Sorry, I went off on a tangent there, but we’ll find our way back. Let’s look at City’s schedule there for a minute. Not only do they have three home games, but they get their next three home games in a row. By the time they have to travel to Watford, they’ll have already wrapped up their spot in the Top 4, and they’ll still be relatively fresh from the complete lack of travel they’ll have to do in the month of May. And I’m not being bold when I say they’ll have the Top 4 spot wrapped up. When looking comparatively at the schedules of the teams in their point range, City have the easiest route to locking that down.
Teams To Avoid
Everton – SWA (A), WAT (H), ARS (A)
I’m sure many people wouldn’t have been tempted by Everton simply due to their lack of having a DGW to close out the year. But this team still has the league’s leading scorer in Lukaku (with a three goal buffer no less), and there will be people that will prefer a 90 minute guaranteed top player over a 180 minute potential output from a lesser one. But here’s the thing: Everton have closed up shop. They’re not playing for anything anymore, and it shows. The Chelsea defeat was probably inevitable, but their lack of caring about the outcome was surprising. Avoid this team and invest elsewhere.
West Brom – BUR (A), CHE (H), MCI (A), SWA (A)
On paper, this looks like it could be a little inviting for somebody to try to get a cheap defender or mid from West Brom to help round out your squad elsewhere. But this team is stagnant, and they’re really not worth your time, DGW or not. West Brom didn’t score a single goal in the entire month of April. But it’s not like their defence was much better – they did lose four of those five games. Honestly, there isn’t any part of this team that looks attractive, even if your only goal is to buy a cheap player and hope for the best, you’ll still be disappointed.
The Tracker in full…