MLS GW29 Tips – Fantasy Major League Soccer

MLS GW29 Tips – Fantasy Major League Soccer

The FMLS GW29 gives us yet another change in the dynamic of the game. Now, outside of GW32’s mass of bye weeks (which we get a wildcard to navigate), there are no further bye weeks to have to consider in your weekly plans. All teams are on the board and their players can be selected with the confidence that you really don’t have to sell them off if you don’t want to. But, that being said, there are still a host of DGW teams that must be taken into account. If you’re one of those players that consider variety to be the spice of life, then a fantasy game has truly never made you feel more alive than the 2015 Fantasy MLS game.

The real trick this round is trying to determine if the DGW teams are going to do your squad any justice on a weekly basis moving forward. After all, only three players from a DGW team made the Dream Team this last week. So do we hunt for a roster of as many DGW players as possible, or do we simply pick the best players on the board now regardless of the number of fixtures that they have left? Full disclosure: I am struggling with that answer myself. In a perfect world, you would have a crystal ball or a special algorithm that could give you that answer. But you’re stuck with me instead. So let’s try to work through this week’s minefield and see if we can’t get some traction going into this week’s game.

*SIDE NOTE* This week’s rosters will lock on Wednesday at 7:30ET. The only thing worse than picking a bad player is not logging on in time to pick any new players at all.

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#1 — Take a step back and look at the league as a whole
When you get right down to it, the only thing that motivates a team in an American league is making the playoffs. Sure, we have the Supporters Shield for the most points, but the true champion of the league has to qualify for the playoffs and win their way to the title. And that’s all fine and good, but the problem in the MLS is that there’s not a promotion / relegation system to give any real consequence to not making the playoffs. In leagues with relegation, you can expect the teams at the bottom to throw their entire arsenal at their final matches in an attempt to scrape together enough points to stay in the league.

In America, the system is completely reversed. Since there’s no consequence to being absolute garbage all year, teams can continue to just be garbage. In fact in most instances, the worst teams get to pick first in the following year’s draft. We reward teams for playing poorly, or “tanking” as it’s called. The trick is to try to find when a team has simply given up the chase for the playoffs, and avoid their players like the plague. And equally important, try to find the bubble teams that haven’t lost all hope of qualifying for the playoffs, and try to get as many of their players as you can stomach.

The closer we get to the end of the regular season, you’re going to see three things start to happen. The first thing is that the teams that have given up the fight will start to rotate in younger players and try to get everybody some game time before the year is up. These players will be unpredictable, and when you see them start to filter in, you know that the team could care less about winning at that point. The second thing you’ll see happen is when teams start to clinch playoff spots. Be prepared for teams that have made the playoffs to start to give their star players more rest so that they’re 100% fit and rested before the first knockout games roll around. And finally, keep watching those bubble teams. When teams are right on the cusp of being in or out of the playoffs, you’ll certainly see their best players really go for it, so there could be some fantasy gold in there.

As of right now, no team has clinched a playoff spot, but we’re only a week or two out from seeing that start to happen. Likewise, no team has been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, but when a team like Colorado is already 7 points off of the pace, you can expect for them to fold up soon enough.

I only bring all of this up because it’s important to keep in the back of your mind that we’re going to see rotation issues in the coming weeks, and truly no single player will be immune from rotation once things start to shake out. So prepare yourselves.

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#2 — Know your DGW teams
We have six teams on a double this week, and they are: Montreal, New England, NYCFC, NYRB, San Jose and Toronto. In a typical week, I would go over each team and break them down by position, but six teams would make that a bit cumbersome. So in rapid succession, we’ll just go over each team and the key players and storylines you’ll want to watch out for.

Montreal v SJ (A), NE (H)
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[/three_fourth]The Montreal Impact, for lack of a better pun, are really going to be the team that impacts your team more than any other squad for the rest of the year. This week marks the start of a back to back set of rounds where they have a DGW, so you’re going to want to invest in them. The problem is that with that investment, their power to hurt you is as great as their power to really carry your team. And that risk assessment is something that you have to go over by yourself. Do you carry four Montreal players to the end? Or is your level of comfort more in the 2-3 players range?

Let’s be honest though, their fixtures this week aren’t great. San Jose did an admirable job of holding a renewed Seattle team to a single goal, and New England have really found some kind of form lately. The good news for Montreal is that Drogba was healthy enough to play 90 minutes over two consecutive matches. The bad news is that Montreal really didn’t travel well (at least offensively) away to LA this past weekend. There’s a lot of risk/reward with this team.

Key Players: Drogba ($10.2), Piatti ($10.4), Toia ($5.1). If you’re going to go with Montreal, take the two superstars and their trusty budget defender. You could take the chance and grab Bush ($5.2) or another defender, but you should still avoid Ciman ($7.2) and Oduro ($6.6). Ciman seems determined to earn a suspension every time he takes the field, and Oduro is still seeing too few minutes with Drogba coming on.

New England v NYRB (H), MTL (A)
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[/three_fourth]New England seem to come on strong at the end of every year. It almost makes you wonder why they don’t just use this same level of attack from beginning to end? Through the month of September, New England have scored three goals in each of their two matches and have only conceded one. In fact, on the year New England are now tied for the best home goal differential in the Eastern Conference with a +15.

But even with their fine form, they have a tough schedule for this round. The Red Bulls are the only team in the East that can boast a positive road goal differential, and Montreal will be looking to get Drogba back on the goals once they get home. The good news is that there won’t be a ton of travel for New England this round, and they’ll have the upper hand against Montreal returning from southern California.

Key Players: Nguyen ($11.5), Fagundez ($7.5) and Tierney ($7.5). Nguyen is the obvious first choice, he has five assists in his last two matches. Fagundez has rounded into fine form with a goal in each of his last three matches. And Tierney is a great value at defender due to New England keeping a much tighter back line lately. You could also pick up Shuttleworth ($5.4) or another defender, but unlike Montreal, New England won’t have the benefit of future DGW’s. The way the Revs are playing though, I’m perfectly content to have Nguyen or Fagundez on my team for the coming round either way — I just don’t want to go too heavy on the other players that I’d have to sell later.

NYCFC v TOR (H), SJ (H)
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[/three_fourth]NY ‘Citeh’ are going to give me heartburn this week. On the one hand, they’re the only team with double home games. On the other hand, NYCFC’s current plan just isn’t working out, is it? Even though Poku and Villa have shown that they can be dynamic together, the fact that Lampard and Pirlo are now fit to play means that Poku is relegated to the bench so that the old men can slow the whole game down. And if that isn’t enough, Villa was pulled at halftime in his last match as a “precautionary” measure for his hamstring. They’re not declaring that he’s injured or that he couldn’t have continued, but he was benched anyway.

Remember what I said about teams making rotations based on their standings? NYCFC are still out of the playoff spots, and in my mind the only reason you pull the one man out of the game that can still get you to the playoffs is because he really was injured. So we’ll have to wait and see how all of that shakes out.

Key Players : David Villa ($11.3), Poku ($7.1), Angelino ($4.8). This is really a list of players that I would pick if I knew 100% that they were healthy and guaranteed to start. Angelino is a great price and does get forward to provide crosses, but Villa and Poku are huge question marks right now. It may actually be best to avoid NYCFC depending on what their lineup card looks like on Wednesday.

NYRB v NE (A), POR (A)
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[/three_fourth]The Red Bulls have a tricky schedule themselves this week, but unlike NYCFC, the Red Bulls are all healthy and playing like a team that’s in first place. Are they completely fixture proof though? Like I said above, the NYRB are the only team in the East that don’t have a negative road goal differential, so they can win in any arena. Unfortunately, the two teams that they’re going up against this week are two very good teams in their own right. New England probably has the better chance to score against NY, but Portland has the better chance to come away with a clean sheet. Either way, NY can hold their own against anybody, and you should have at least one or two from their team in your squad this week.

We all know about BWP and Kljestan, but their cost is going to move your right out of being able to afford more than a few other big names. You could choose one or the other, but choosing both players in tandem in a week where you have two road games is really pushing it.

Key Players: BWP ($11.3), Kljestan ($10.3), Miazga ($6.1). BWP has reestablished himself as a main striker in the league as the year has gone on, but Kljestan has been the big story. After the subtraction of Henry and Cahill, nobody thought there was anybody that could be BWP’s equal in that lineup, and they were wrong. Kljestan is a superstar in the making, and he’s easily a player that you could keep in your lineup regardless of the fixtures. The fact that he’s managed to have a 10.2 point average per match over his last five is just astounding. You know what? Since NYCFC are so bad right now, maybe you could fit Kljestan and BWP on your team. Road fixtures be damned, these two guys are as good as it gets for a tandem in the league right now.

San Jose v MTL (H), NYCFC (A)
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[/three_fourth]San Jose actually have a decent schedule this round, all things considered. We all were left wondering how Montreal would fare on the road with Drogba, and I think that we can at least say that they aren’t near as good as they were at home (I’m sure San Jose were taking notes on how to slow down the Piatti/Drogba combo). And as I just got done saying, NYC are a complete mess right now, and San Jose could really capitalize on their slow play. Realistically, depending on Villa being active or not, San Jose could win that match outright.

And San Jose have everything to play for coming down the stretch. They sit just two points out of the playoffs, and I think it’s safe to say that at this stage in the season they would consider not making the playoffs to be a failure. Nobody expected them to be a playoff contender when the year started — but now that they’re this close, you know they want to surpass all expectations. The fortunate thing for fantasy players is that San Jose have left points on the table in their last two matches. At the start of September they lost stunningly to Philadelphia, and then followed that up with a draw against Seattle. With those four points they dropped, they could already be in the playoff picture — but since they’ll be scrambling to recoup those losses, you may as well jump on board to enjoy the fruits of their labor. I have a hard time seeing any team try harder this week to win matches than San Jose.

Key Players: Wondo ($11.0), Goodson ($8.4), Bingham ($5.8). For a bit there we were left wondering if Amarikwa was going to take the mantle from Wondo as the #1 striker — and he might, but just not yet. Goodson is expensive, but most of the San Jose backline have really risen in price — he’s still a good value for your top defender in my opinion. And Bingham is now just two matches removed from that impressive streak where he had four straight clean sheets. He could start another one of those streaks at will I think.

Toronto v NYCFC (A), COL (H)
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[/three_fourth]What do we make of Toronto right now? Giovinco was able to come back from injury much faster than anybody thought he would, but even in a match that he played 90 (at home no less), they still managed to lose horribly by the score of 3-1 against New England. Are New England really just that good that they’re able to stop Giovinco from being the force of nature that he is? Is he maybe really not 100% fit yet? Does Altidore just make every team he plays for incrementally worse each week?

Key Players: Sebastian Giovinco. Let me just skip the rest of the preamble and get to the point. The only player that matters for Toronto is Giovinco. The problem is that he costs $13.1, and if you get him, you’re really going to be short staffed somewhere else. Could you add Bradley to the list of key players? Maybe. But honestly, I would take five other mids off the board before I considered Bradley for this week. It’s all about Giovinco.

Right now, Giovinco is just shy of 15% ownership in the game. This means that if you don’t take Giovinco and he explodes, you’re going to lose a few ranks to people that had the moxie to spend the money to own the best player in the league. If you want players like Kljestan, Nguyen, BWP…you may end up pricing yourself right out of owning Giovinco. It’s a tough call, but assuming he’s healthy, I’m taking him for myself.

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#3 — The Rest of the League (Rapid Fire)
– LA have now gone two straight matches without scoring a goal. Even with that being said, they’re still the highest scoring team in the league with 49 goals. The problem this week is that they play on the road to RSL, and despite all of their goals, LA are the 3rd worst team in the West with a -11 road goal differential.

– If you want to capitalize on LA being bad on the road, and you don’t care about DGW players, get Javier Morales for the stretch run. RSL are six points off the playoff pace and Morales will be looking to replicate his last performance to get every point possible for his club.

– Further proof that you don’t need DGW players to hit the big points, Kei Kamara was the lone striker on the Dream Team last week – and he wasn’t on a double. Truthfully, Kamara is always a risk to get a brace, and he’s as good of a gamble at his position as anyone else.

– Orlando are on the road to Chicago this week, and Orlando have the absolute worst road goal differential total in the league with a -19. It may sound crazy, but picking up a Chicago forward this week wouldn’t be the worst idea. You could capitalize on them scoring against Orlando and have a forward already on your team going into Chicago’s DGW in the next round. Something to think about.

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#5 — Captain Picks
The Top Tier — Giovinco. I’ve already listed the anecdotal evidence for him being the number one choice this week, and that is he’s the most talented player the league has right now. But the main reason that I’m picking him this week is that the last time Toronto played in NYC, Giovinco had his best game to date. He scored three goals and grabbed an assist in Yankee Stadium en route to 20 fantasy points — and I just want to see if he can do that again.

The Second Tier — Lee Nguyen. It’s hard to argue with his form right now. Five assists in two games is just nuts. Whatever it was that finally clicked in New England, it’s really showing results. Nguyen is pinpointing players left and right to open up opportunities, and the players he’s targeting are finishing. If you’re too short on funds to get Giovinco, get Nguyen instead.

The Pick They Never Saw Coming — Diego Fagundez. There are any number of players I could’ve put in the second slot above Nguyen, but the true upset pick this week is Fagundez. At just 5.7% ownership and a decent price, there really isn’t a better value on the board. I don’t recommend him lightly, but three goals in three matches isn’t anything to turn your nose up at. And as long as Nguyen is feeding him the ball, Fagundez could see more scoring this week.

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MLS GW29 Tips – Fantasy Major League Soccer This article was written by Guy Sanchez (FootyFantastic)

Follow @Guy_M_Sanchez

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Don’t forget that Guy does have his own MLS blog and we highly recommend a visit as it expands even more upon the current GW – http://www.footyfantastic.com/