Value for money and points for free…
“Play air guitar with MTV
That ain’t workin’, that’s the way to do it,
Points for nothing & chics for free.
I want my, I want my, I want my FPL.”
No, I can’t do anything about partners for free, we ‘re talking someone who can’t score in a house of ill repute the night after winning the lottery here.
But through many Sunday mornings of a sore head from trying to work out how 3 pints and a poppadom with the lads cost me £70 I am now well equipped to advise on spending a bare minimum, even if it does severely limit your social life; but hey this is FPL not Love Island.
The way fpl bumps up the price of every player who remembered to tie his laces before going on the pitch means our wonderful polished end of season teams would now cost well over £110m.
Last season I was in Dire Straits spending weeks poring over reports of pre season versus the likes of Hicksville Galaxy and DownUnderChunder FC for who would be coming out the gates hot and who not. Yeh that’s right, I guessed, crossed my fingers, then despairingly Wildcarded in GW2.
Needing to squeeze £10m+ out of a team is not going to be easy, so knowing who was a banker & who was a late season luxury could be a vital guide.
To do this I used points per game rather than total points on the basis we transfer out players if they are injured or not getting in the team. We need players who were scoring at least 4 points per game each and to be averaging over 5ppg across the team to get a good OR. This is looking for the core of a squad, so bench fillers and rotators are not in consideration, hence I set a base of 4 points per game to consider. If they aren’t listed below, they weren’t a 4 pointer, and don’t get looked at.
To give a ‘valuation price’ for each player a base value of £5.5m for 4points per game, with an increase of £2m for each extra point per game gives a good comparison to actual cost.
What we are looking for are players whose actual price comes in lower than this valuation or at least not much over, to get as much ‘valuation’ over our £100m budget as we can.
Players priced well over the valuation need to have some compelling reason they will seriously out perform next season to be chosen otherwise we are overpaying for points on one player that will cost us heavily elsewhere..
All initial prices given are their points per game valuation in millions –
Forwards
Kane £12.5
Jesus £11
Lukaku £9.5
Aguero £8.5
Vardy £7
Firminho,Defoe,Llorente £6.5
Austin £6,
Ayew, Giroud £5.5
Taking away those overvalued by more than £1m, & showing actual price leaves only four -:
Kane £12.5,Jesus £10.5,Austin £6.5,Ayew £5.0
Kane & Jesus have high points per game and their valuations are equal or less than actual price so they are definitely the best choice here, I need to balance that cost with a cheap but still 4 pointer and so select Ayew at £5. Their total actual cost £28m. Added value in points per game +£1.0m
Midfield
Sánchez £11
Hazard £10
Eriksen, Alli £9.5
Mane £9
Coutinho, DeBruyne £8.5
Son, Ozil, Stanislas £7.5
Siggy £7
Pedro, Sterling, Lallana, Antonio £6.5
Zaha, Walcott, Phillips, Fabregas £6
Wijnaldum, Mata, Barkley £5.5
Some are heavily overpriced but there is quite a bit more value to be found here.
More of a problem is that if you take the luxury of Sanchez then its a hard squeeze to find any value with the cash left.
At actual price without £1m overprice are-:
Sanchez £12, Hazard £10.5, Eriksen, Alli, Mané £9.5, Coutinho £9, Sané £8.5, Son £8,Ayew, Fabregas £7, Stanislas, Phillips £6
With Hazard initially injured I chose to have mid/fwd value mix from top 5 teams and go
Eriksen, Mane, Fabregas, Stanislas 4.5m. Total cost £38 . value from points per game +£1.5
Defence
Alonso £9m
Cahill, Rose, Milner £7m
Azpi, Ake, Bertrand £6.5m
Valencia, Walker, Trippier, Bailly £6m
Baines, Daniels, Luiz, Aldo £5.5m
Better value here, with none overpriced. Though only one at the value 7.5+ that we really need to be hitting top OR.
Alonso at actual £7.0 is simply a must have. After that I have to select mainly on not overspending but still gaining value in points per game.
I chose Ake £5.0, Bertrand £5.5, Trippier £5.5 and a 4.0 for actual cost – £26m Added value in points per game +£5.0m
To justify this I’m classing Alonso as a MID and having 4-4-2 as my initial default base line-up.
The players in midfield below 7 (actual price) of good value are too few to choose over having Alonso + 3 good defenders.
(This likely changes some weeks in when one or two of the cheap MIDs turn out to be gold dust)
Goalkeepers
Heaton,Lloris £6m, Adrian,Butland £5.5m
Given the initial fixtures, I am plumping Hart £4.5 (actual cost) & a 4.0 for £8.5m Added value in points per game +£1.0m
My Final Team
Based upon the above information my team looks like this, so far…
Hart, (A 4.0)
Alonso, Trippier, Bertrand, Ake (A 4.0)
Mane, Eriksen, Fabregas, Stanislas (A 4.5)
Kane, Jesus (Ayew)
Team actual spend £99m, Added value in points per game +£9.5m.
This means I should be getting 5 points extra every game week than if I wasn’t using this method.
Over the season that’s about 200 points for nothing, but no chics 
It’s going to be tighter than a gnats chuff, & the big call for now looks to be Kane &/or Sanchez.
Thanks for reading Value for money and points for free…. This article was written by Takasaki Tiger
The Fixture Tracker…
I’m seeing a lot of drafts (including mine) with Lindelof as United defensive cover. With their injury list would it not be wise to go with Blind (for the same price) instead? Plus he’ll probably offer a little more going forward?
They still have Darmian who might get the nod at LB. it’s a decent point though he tends to take corners
Good point. If he’s not nailed on I don’t really want to risk it, as my bench will be weak. Probably safer to stick with Lindelof I guess.
I have Lindelhof. Yeah I have currently got two 4 million defenders on my bench which is a massive concern
Got to make a cut by the sounds of it Smash. All well and good having a solid 11 but you can’t ever predict injuries and rotation.
Latest draft.
Thoughts?
Webstar
I couldn’t odds any of that. I really like it at least as a starting squad – let’s face it you couldn’t ask for a better selection of fixtures for opening day.
I’m not convinced Ogbonna is needed due to the fixtures (or if he’ll even play) so someone assured like Mee at Burnley would at least give you one more option from the bench – Burnley’s home fixtures are very fair to begin with.
Yup. Just thought Hammers are looking stronger though Burnley do like a CS at home – as you said, easy enough to bring Mee in.
West Ham have three away games to begin with so that looks a bit suspect. And I’m not sure as I say, that Ogbonna shifts Fonte and Reid.
Solid all over. Not sure Ogbonna starts. No Spurs attacking coverage but you can’t have everyone
Cheers. Yeah, every time I try to squeeze Alli/Kane/Eriksen in things look worse overall.
With Son out who is likely to benefit?
Things would be much earlier if Son was a guaranteed starter wouldn’t it!
With Son out they might go 3 at the back like they did a bit last season
Would like to see Eriksen/Ali in the midfield probably at the expense of Benteke
Yeah but would mean fielding a Gayle type over Teke.
Unless Chica comes in at a good price…
First one or second? And why? Thanks.
Banjo I don’t mean to be rude but I’d have to say neither, a bench with potentially 3 non starters at worst and 2 at best is going to get you in all sorts of trouble really fast. I’d say if your going to have any potential non starters 1 should be your max. If RLC looks guaranteed then you’re looking better but at the minute he’s not so I’d switch him and bring in a 4.5 def too
Hi Rosco… in all honesty, I’ve pretty much ignored the bench so far. I’m hoping to uncover some 4.0/4.5 starters in the coming weeks.
Fair do’s mate, think we’re all looking for that elusive 4.0 but if he doesn’t show up don’t go doing a Waxys!!
Haha I’ll try not too!! 😉 where would you shave a bit to bolster the bench then? With option 1 I could ditch McAuley and get two 4.5 defenders?
Or ditch Courtois for Foster and have 1.0 to bolster the bench?
I would either go option 1 and get foster and switch McCauley to say Ake and you would still have 1.0 to upgrade or option 2 drop Azpi to Luiz and use the 0.5!
I prefer the 1st one. Just think Lukaku will outscore the difference
Cheers Smash. Only probably with the heavy front 3 is I need to choose between Liverpool attacking cover or Alli.
Liverpool.
Cheers Elle. I’m currently preferring Salah over anyone else, but not overly comfortable having no spurs cover.
Howdy all, first draft of the season.
I feel the team is too standard to make a breakthrough, with only J.Rod and Stani as outside picks. That being said, torn between:
J.Rod/Gale
Stani/Chadli/Redmond
Also, what’s the current opinion on Lacazete/Morata.
I’d take Morata over Lacazette all day long. Arsenal’s squad doesn’t look settled, Chelsea’s is solid. If Arsenal get off to a bad start, the Wenger out brigade will be out in force and who knows how Ozil and Sanchez (not to mention the other players) will react?
I see what you’re saying but don’t necessarily agree. I think with no Champions League Arsenal will be more settled than last year and I felt they finished strong. Chelsea without Hazard however, looks to be a racehorse with three legs. I do see your point on the anti-wenger crew though.
Dunno…you have to wonder whether Sanchez’s heart is going to be in it. Ditto Ozil. If Giroud is going to be on the bench for long periods, is he going to feel unsettled? Is the Ox off?
Hi Hazardo… that’s a very solid first draft! All the decisions you’re struggling with are very close calls. In my opinion Morata offer much better value than Laca, and with the extra cash you could get some Chelsea cover, by doing Stan to Fabregas/Willian? I’d want some Chelsea in there if I were you. J.Rod and Gayle is a toss of a coin, but I’d probably lean towards Gayle.
I didn’t factor in that by getting Morata you’d be getting Chelsea cover! 😉
I didn’t even realise I had no chelsea cover as I had Faberegas in all through tinkering. Thanks for the shout!
Perhaps Stani –>Ramsey
Lacazette-> Morata?
I dunno what it is though but I do have a gut feeling about Laca, may just swap Stani –> Fab as I had 1.5m banked for a possible Kane desperation snatch if he gets off to a flyer.
I would go Morata before Lacazette I watched him in the friendly v Chelsea and did not look that great granted it was only a friendly and Arsenal were very poor
Watch Lacazette in the Emirates Cup.Chelsea game he was totally isolated so didn’t stand much of a chance.Im in the same situation as you.
Evening all.,
Hope all is well. Anyone else getting a headache already with the number of options this season? Top heavy strikers, premium midfielders or back 4; all seem options of which I’ve seen a fair few of so far on this site.
Latest team if you would mind RMT?
Also, would it be possible to join the regulars league this season?
Thank you
Team looks fairly solid, although not sure on willians current place in the team vs. Fabregas, bench looks slightly suspect also.
Thanks all. I am liking Willian to start as hazard injured and seems like he’s in fairly good pre-season form. Good thing there are options in and around his price so he’s really interchangeable.
I’m not really a massive fan of putting too much into my bench. Would like to think Carroll and lascelles will get game time
Lanzini is the same price as Willian and will definitely start and has a strong team around him this season.Worth considering imo.Bench is weak but them everyone’s team at has a weak bench:p
Good shout. I like Lanzini and if West Ham improve (look like they will, but who knows with them?), he is probably one of those players you can leave in all season and he’ll give you a good return.
Looks very similar to my drafts so I like it!
Think Willian is a fine choice until Haz comes back. Be surprised if it’s not him + Pedro supporting Morata up top.
That’s a good point regarding Willian. I’m currently on Fabregas, but with Willian likely to be playing slightly more attacking he could be the better option.
Anyone know whether this Hagazi fella is gonna be starting for the baggies? He seems to have impressed so far.
He seems a very Pulis-type player doesn’t he? One I’m seriously considering for a bench spot.
He’s played the two games so far.
They play simultaneous games this week so I’ll be interested to see who pairs with who.
He’s on my watchlist.
*pairs with whom
😛
There’s quite a few decent options at 4.5 it appears. Currently I’m on Simpson & Yedlin. Anyone else on your radar?
Newcastle and Burnley still. Pair up very nicely.
Lowton and Yedlin right now.
Martina at Everton. Shame their fixtures are so tough. Mee and Taylor at Burnley – good for bench maybe.
That’s a tough GW1 GP!
Yeah I might need two rotating 4.5s. Is Burnley/Newcastle the best? Would prefer one to rotate with Leicester though
I’ve only done 2 mins analysis, Smash. But palace might go quite well with Leicester? Maybe Tomkins?
I doubt you wanna spend the extra 0.5, but Jeffrey Schlupp looks very interesting. Looks like he’s playing wing back in pre season, and he has a good scoring record. He started his career as a striker!
Yeah you need to suck it up the first week banjo but no rotation is ever perfect.
For example your Palace/Leicester has a tough GW6.
I’ll have WC’ed by GW6 anyway 😉
Came on as a sub in the last one for the injured Evans, mind
He has. They still have Evans and McAuley there so not sure if he will start
If he starts then two 4.5 rotators could be him + Everton’s right back. Everton’s fixtures turn nice just as West Brom’s go bad. Bit of a punt though.
Big punt. Everton are in Europe (rotation) and there seems to be three right backs there not counting Coleman!
Yea I think I talked myself out of that as I was writing it
I’m liking Leicester / Palace as rotators at the moment. Leicester defence is generously priced, and palace seem to be playing quite defensive under de boer.
Banjo are you planning for these defenders to be #3 & 4 or 4&5?
3 & 4, so one playing every week.