Fantasy Football Fixture Analysis Gameweek 12
Welcome to Fantasy Football Fixture Analysis Gameweek 12.
FF247 offered the Fixtures piece to me this week and, after some heated toing and froing and a good deal of unsavoury legal wrangling*, I accepted.
I was told to “break it up” and that I had a “blank canvas” to work with. Great, I thought. This is the perfect opportunity to discuss my thoughts on series 2 of Stranger Things, or perhaps this could be the ideal platform for me to divulge my definitive ranking of Mario Kart games.
But then I figured that FF247 probably didn’t intend for me to go so wildly off script and that for all intents and purposes, this was a fantasy football site and my approach should still be rooted in that. Plus, I doubt anyone really cares about my musings on Mario Kart history (MK64 ftw).
In all honesty, this has a similar feel to the usual offering, but I’ve thrown a couple of fancy graphics in there for good measure.
The Fixture Tracker…
Gameweek Tracker GW12-19
FAVOURABLE FIXTURES
#1) Manchester City – LEI (A), HUD (A), SOU (H)
I think part of the reason the torch was passed to me this week is because the regulars are sick of harping on about Man City, so here’s me…harping on about Man City.
No matter what spin I put on this article, there was no way I could avoid talking about the boys in blue. Their relentless march towards Premier League domination is getting kind of boring, but at least us lot can benefit from the plethora of FPL points on offer, right? Well, kind of. As Mito discusses in The Man City Dilemna, trying to correctly predict Pep’s starting line-up is akin to playing the EuroMillions – the chances of success are roughly the same.
Despite the constant selection migraine though, you simply cannot do without Man City coverage. The Kun/Jesus debate continues to rage on, whilst in the middle of the park the points are shared around like some FPL version of communism…even Fernandinho has been getting in on the act! As the graph below shows, City midfielders have combined to score 358 points this season, almost 100 more than their nearest rivals:
Up next for Pep’s boys are Leicester, Huddersfield and Southampton respectively. Other teams in the league may have conceded more goals than these three, but that’s partly explained by the fact that most of them have already played Man City. In all fairness, it doesn’t matter a great deal who they are facing at the moment. If only we knew the secrets to Pep’s starting line-ups, this FPL lark would be a whole lot easier.
#2) Manchester United – NEW (H), BRI (H), WAT (A)
We don’t have to travel far for our next recommendation. United have been forced to navigate some tricky fixtures lately and Mourinho’s approach was unsurprisingly to go full Mourinho, thus killing any hope of significant attacking returns. Their defence remains the best in the league however, having shipped just five times so far. On that note, Phil Jones has picked up yet another injury that probably won’t end up making a blind bit of difference to his Premier League minutes. Many of us have fallen foul of that already this season.
Newcastle, Brighton and Watford are all fixtures with clean sheet potential, but they are also games which should afford United the opportunity to flex their attacking muscles a little more than recent times, particularly with the first two being at Old Trafford. After a blistering start to life in a red shirt, Lukaku has been woefully ineffective lately. In fairness to him though, he has been feeding off scraps. This run of games could be just the thing to spark him into life. Says a hopeful owner.
This weekend’s opponents Newcastle won’t be too disappointed by their mid-table standing at this stage, but they’ve lost their last two and have only tasted victory once since GW5, and that was against Palace so it doesn’t count. Ultimately, United need 9 points from these next three fixtures if they are to harbour any hope of keeping pace with their cross-city rivals, and it would be wise to have some coverage if you don’t already.
#3) Bournemouth – HUD (H), SWA (A), BUR (H)
I know it’s Bournemouth, but sometimes you have to look beyond the ‘big 6’ if you want a couple of budget players with favourable fixtures, and Eddie Howe’s men certainly fall into that bracket at the moment. They found a bit of form before the international break, too, with away victories over Newcastle and Stoke sandwiching a narrow loss to Chelsea.
Two of their next three fixtures are at home, with the first of those being the visit of Huddersfield this Saturday; a team who, since their opening day win at Palace, have failed to score a goal away from home. That equates to 372 minutes without finding the net on their travels, so they aren’t exactly looking like stiff opposition. Swansea are no great shakes either, having lost their last three, but Burnley have been oddly impressive away from home that fixture does come with a warning.
It may be slim pickings in the Bournemouth team but there are a couple of viable FPL options. With a price tag of just £4.6m and with a couple of goals and an assist to his name, you could do a lot worse than Andrew Surman as a 4th/5th midfielder. In defence, the pick of the bunch, as always, is Charlie Daniels. He’s dropped to £4.8 in value and for a player with attacking threat and some decent upcoming fixtures, that isn’t bad value.
UNFAVOURABLE FIXTURES
#1) Southampton – LIV (A), EVE (H), MCI (A)
Southampton, whose only win away from home this season was against Palace – and again, I can’t stress enough how little that means – must travel to both Anfield and the Etihad over the next three gameweeks. The omens are not good, then. Lurking between those daunting trips is a more promising looking home fixture against Everton, but you never know…maybe the Toffees’ comeback win over Watford in GW11 will kick-start their season. If only for Guy’s sake.
#2) Huddersfield – BOU (A), MCI (H), ARS (A)
If you do happen to own a Huddersfield player, then it’s likely it’s in defence (with the possible exception of Mooy). If that is the case, the outlook isn’t great. The Terriers start off with a trip to in-form Bournemouth, before hosting Man City – we know all about them – followed by a visit to the Emirates, where Arsenal just love bullying the little teams in the playground.
#3) Leicester – MCI (H), WHU (A), TOT (H)
For some reason I have Andy King in my FPL team. I don’t remember when this happened, but I’d like to have a stern word in the ear of my former self about his selection. Alas, it is done now, and I’m faced with the prospect of him trundling off the bench for 20-minute cameos against the likes of Man City and Spurs in the coming weeks. If you, like me, have Andy King in your team, help is at hand. Comment below and we can pull through this together.
That was a fairly elaborate way of saying that Leicester have some crap fixtures coming up.
LONGER TERM
Perhaps you want to look a little further ahead. If we extend the outlook to include the next five fixtures, here’s the average Fixture Difficulty Rating (FDR) for each team (the lower the number, the ‘easier’ the run of fixtures):
Chelsea and Liverpool start to come into the picture with a healthy run of games over the next couple of months. Palace have what is deemed as a very favourable run, but I wouldn’t suggest you rush out to snap up their players just yet. Then again, I own Andy King. Should you really be taking my advice?
How reliable is FDR as a tool for FPL players, anyway? Do outcomes meet expectations? Here’s a graph which shows the average points scored by all players (per appearance) in fixtures against teams with FDR ratings 2 – 5 (1 is seldom used as a rating and the sample was too small to include at this stage of the season):
On average, most FPL points are scored by players facing teams who are given an FDR rating of 2, followed by 3, 5 and 4. It’s more or less what you’d expect, and at least it doesn’t render my previous table a complete waste of time.
*Claims of legal wrangling may have been fabricated for dramatic effect.
Thanks for reading Fantasy Football Fixture Analysis Gameweek 12. This article was written by Mastermind from the Stats Zone
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*** NEW ARTICLE ***
Morning all! Welcome to the countdown to GW12 – there are still some internationals to play this week, but that won’t stop the FPL chat.
Big thanks to Mastermind for kicking things off with the Fixtures article. As per usual City lead the way, but there is a new entry at no.3 and some great charts to back up the info.
Thanks mate and enjoy all.
No worries – hope you all find it helpful! Enjoyed putting this together.
It’s been while since Pompey had a mention in one of these! Top work 😉
oooops sorry, my fault !!!
Got you excited for a while eh Banjo?!
Haha – I was wondering what that was about. Was sure I didn’t mention Pompey!
I was thinking it was some kind of cryptic message or cheeky reference that I didn’t get!!
Either that or You had hijacked the article Banjo!!
Morning all!
Cheers for this Mastermind! I love me some stats!!
I’ll be around for the next hour or so, if you have any burning questions RMT’s (thats Rate my team for those not familiar with all the abreviations we throw around at will!) or just general shooting the breeze then be sure to post up and i’ll help where and when I can!
I know we have a few lurkers who follow the articles and don’t post at all or very often, but don’t be shy, it would be great to hear some new voices so be sure to get involved!
Alright Rosco, how you doing?
What would you do with this rabble mate? 1ft, 0.2mln in ze bank.
I really like that team. I think you should save the transfer, boring but I don’t see any pressing issues
I’m thinking of captaining Aguero, should I dare?
I’m not too bad cheers Cookie!
I see you’ve already brought Charlie D in this week, could be a shrewd move! He certainly had me nervous with his 40 yarders when we played them last week!
I think you already know the answer here but Its a Save for me!
Obviously if it looks like Jones won’t play then you could consider switching Simpson to another 4.5 (Dunk/Duffy/ Mee – Im considering a Burnley Double up) But even then Maguire coming in, could get you attacking points.
I think with the imminent return of Pogba, your lack of Chelsea coverage ahead of their favourable fixtures, not to mention perhaps not having the optimal City mid then a save and working with 2FT next week would be your best move…but you knew that already right!?
Ps I really like this team, both in terms of the players but also your very pretty colour scheme! Is it just me or does a colourful team always just look that little bit better…just me then!
Thanks to you both Viktor & Rosco.
Simposon could well be the one to go if Jones is ruled out. Would usually be happy to play Maguire but City clearly worry me!
Did you mean my lack of Chelsea or United? Or both?!
Thanks re the colour scheme – it took me hours. It’s not quite right but it’s getting there
Yeah, I would hold fire, too. If Jones doesn’t play, then at least you have someone who will to come in, even if it is at home to Man City. Certainly not worth getting rid of him, unless he hear otherwise between now and Saturday, of course. Interesting captain choice – I’d be more tempted to go for Salah, which definitely means you should keep it on Kane 😉
Its Kane, Kun or Richarlison for me Swirls!
Thank you for that article, and I must say the graphics blew me away, it was like watching Avatar for the first time.
I’m up for some advice Rosco if you’re still there.
I have 1FT and 0.5 ITB. Thinking of switching a keeper, Mbemba or something else..
Thanks in advance
Sure thing Vik!
I think theres a few things you need to address here but certainly not all in one week!
I think you have too much money tied up in your 5th mid, I’d be looking to move Atsu into RLC to free up additional funds, I also think Foster needs to go and Mbemba needs upgrading.
I think its a very good team as whole, especially given how strong your front line is! Whats your TV if you don’t mind me asking?
I think depending on what formation you’re intending to play this week you should address one of those issues. I think you’ve got potential clean sheets in 2 maybe 3 at the back, you could switch Mbmeba to Duffy and play 4 at the back this week. I don’t see a high score for either Gray or Atsu this week. If you want to stick to 343, then this week is a good week to bring in RLC as they have a good fixture and he’ll be feeling confident after his international debut. I’ll likely be playing him this week.
If you do bring in RLC then you’ll £1.1m which would allow you more scope next week.
Thank you, very good tips
If you’re just looking to make one transfer, I would take out Mbemba and put in one of those boys from Brighton or Bournemouth.
Thank you
Afternoon all.
Thanks for the article mastermind.
What’s the crack with mane?
On a wc. What do u think?
Hey Shane Hows it going?
Latest on Mane is that he’s returned to Liverpool after suffering a recurrence of a hamstring injury. I think we’ll know more later in the week after he’s assessed by Liverpool. He’ll be a great differential if he’s not injured but if there are doubts then it’s an easy switch to Salah on your WC!
I like this WC a lot!
I think the only player that jumps out as someone I’d want to change is Francis, thats mainly because Bournemouth haven’t shown themselves to be defensively worthy of investment. However, they do have a good run of fixtures and he’s cheap!
Love the Azpi pick, and double United at the back. Jones will likely be rotated over the xmas period but with 5 playing defenders you should have that eventuality covered.
Up top I can’t argue with Kane. Lukaku hasn’t been in great form but the return of Pogba, should hopefully see his output increase dramatically ahead of their favourable fixtures!
Cheers rosco. Will change lukaku to morata in few game weeks.
Hope mane is fit. Cant afford salah. So might have to go coutinho If mane ruled out.
Francis only in there cus price not bad. Bournemouth can only get better with fixtures they got surely ha.
If you intend to change to Morata in a few weeks I would consider just going with him now, I genuinely think Morata will outscore Lukaku this GW!
Thanks Mastermind for the Informative chart. And Rosco if you’re still there! Jones’s injury might mean that I’m down to two defenders. So with 1 FT and 0 itb, what would be your suggestions?
Hey Coys!
Great looking team!
I think you have to address your defensive issues (everything else looks great!).
We know what its like with jones, we’ll likely get no solid information, so with that in mind it would probably be prudent to at least have coverage should he not play.
With no money I think your only option is to lose Otamendi or Jones. Personally I would keep Jones (who offers great value in the best defence and i think the double up has probably paid off very well for you) and lose Otamendi. I think a downgrade to a Burnley defender would be my move. You would then have money ITB to upgrade Hunemeir in preparation for the busy xmas period.
Thanks lot Rosco for the inputs. Appreciate it. Any thoughts on Cahill or even Christiansen. I’m priced out of Azpi move now that he gained 0.2m!
I think there is too much uncertainty around the Luiz situation to pick either this week. Hopefully things will become a little clearer this weekend. Perhaps Rüdiger is a safer bet but even then he’s not nailed!
Thanks once again Rosco! Appreciate it!
I actually made a calculation error, i could still downgrade DDG + Otamendi to Pope + Azpi for a hit and with 0.1m to spare! Worth doing?
I’d play Dunk ahead of Yedlin and take out Otamendi for Stones, if you still want Man City defence, or even someone like Daniels, Ward, Mee or Duffy which could save you some dosh to spend elsewhere.
I might not have the luxury to not play Yedlin assuming Jones will not be fit this wk. I’m also not really keen on City defence. Is Stones nailed for next few weeks without Kompany looking like another option for Pep. Thanks for the inputs mate!
Is it worth doing DDG + Otamendi to Pope + Azpi for a hit and with 0.1m to spare to upgrade yedlin to Mee the following week?
I always gauge hits based on longevity. Given that both these moves are for players you’ll likely keep in the long term then I think yes this would be worth a hit. Whilst the -4 may not be paid back in one GW ( although it could given both players ability and fixtures) it will in my opinion pay off very quickly.
Good point! Cheers mate!