Fantasy Football Fixture Analysis Gameweek 12
Welcome to Fantasy Football Fixture Analysis Gameweek 12.
FF247 offered the Fixtures piece to me this week and, after some heated toing and froing and a good deal of unsavoury legal wrangling*, I accepted.
I was told to “break it up” and that I had a “blank canvas” to work with. Great, I thought. This is the perfect opportunity to discuss my thoughts on series 2 of Stranger Things, or perhaps this could be the ideal platform for me to divulge my definitive ranking of Mario Kart games.
But then I figured that FF247 probably didn’t intend for me to go so wildly off script and that for all intents and purposes, this was a fantasy football site and my approach should still be rooted in that. Plus, I doubt anyone really cares about my musings on Mario Kart history (MK64 ftw).
In all honesty, this has a similar feel to the usual offering, but I’ve thrown a couple of fancy graphics in there for good measure.
The Fixture Tracker…
Gameweek Tracker GW12-19
FAVOURABLE FIXTURES
#1) Manchester City – LEI (A), HUD (A), SOU (H)
I think part of the reason the torch was passed to me this week is because the regulars are sick of harping on about Man City, so here’s me…harping on about Man City.
No matter what spin I put on this article, there was no way I could avoid talking about the boys in blue. Their relentless march towards Premier League domination is getting kind of boring, but at least us lot can benefit from the plethora of FPL points on offer, right? Well, kind of. As Mito discusses in The Man City Dilemna, trying to correctly predict Pep’s starting line-up is akin to playing the EuroMillions – the chances of success are roughly the same.
Despite the constant selection migraine though, you simply cannot do without Man City coverage. The Kun/Jesus debate continues to rage on, whilst in the middle of the park the points are shared around like some FPL version of communism…even Fernandinho has been getting in on the act! As the graph below shows, City midfielders have combined to score 358 points this season, almost 100 more than their nearest rivals:
Up next for Pep’s boys are Leicester, Huddersfield and Southampton respectively. Other teams in the league may have conceded more goals than these three, but that’s partly explained by the fact that most of them have already played Man City. In all fairness, it doesn’t matter a great deal who they are facing at the moment. If only we knew the secrets to Pep’s starting line-ups, this FPL lark would be a whole lot easier.
#2) Manchester United – NEW (H), BRI (H), WAT (A)
We don’t have to travel far for our next recommendation. United have been forced to navigate some tricky fixtures lately and Mourinho’s approach was unsurprisingly to go full Mourinho, thus killing any hope of significant attacking returns. Their defence remains the best in the league however, having shipped just five times so far. On that note, Phil Jones has picked up yet another injury that probably won’t end up making a blind bit of difference to his Premier League minutes. Many of us have fallen foul of that already this season.
Newcastle, Brighton and Watford are all fixtures with clean sheet potential, but they are also games which should afford United the opportunity to flex their attacking muscles a little more than recent times, particularly with the first two being at Old Trafford. After a blistering start to life in a red shirt, Lukaku has been woefully ineffective lately. In fairness to him though, he has been feeding off scraps. This run of games could be just the thing to spark him into life. Says a hopeful owner.
This weekend’s opponents Newcastle won’t be too disappointed by their mid-table standing at this stage, but they’ve lost their last two and have only tasted victory once since GW5, and that was against Palace so it doesn’t count. Ultimately, United need 9 points from these next three fixtures if they are to harbour any hope of keeping pace with their cross-city rivals, and it would be wise to have some coverage if you don’t already.
#3) Bournemouth – HUD (H), SWA (A), BUR (H)
I know it’s Bournemouth, but sometimes you have to look beyond the ‘big 6’ if you want a couple of budget players with favourable fixtures, and Eddie Howe’s men certainly fall into that bracket at the moment. They found a bit of form before the international break, too, with away victories over Newcastle and Stoke sandwiching a narrow loss to Chelsea.
Two of their next three fixtures are at home, with the first of those being the visit of Huddersfield this Saturday; a team who, since their opening day win at Palace, have failed to score a goal away from home. That equates to 372 minutes without finding the net on their travels, so they aren’t exactly looking like stiff opposition. Swansea are no great shakes either, having lost their last three, but Burnley have been oddly impressive away from home that fixture does come with a warning.
It may be slim pickings in the Bournemouth team but there are a couple of viable FPL options. With a price tag of just £4.6m and with a couple of goals and an assist to his name, you could do a lot worse than Andrew Surman as a 4th/5th midfielder. In defence, the pick of the bunch, as always, is Charlie Daniels. He’s dropped to £4.8 in value and for a player with attacking threat and some decent upcoming fixtures, that isn’t bad value.
UNFAVOURABLE FIXTURES
#1) Southampton – LIV (A), EVE (H), MCI (A)
Southampton, whose only win away from home this season was against Palace – and again, I can’t stress enough how little that means – must travel to both Anfield and the Etihad over the next three gameweeks. The omens are not good, then. Lurking between those daunting trips is a more promising looking home fixture against Everton, but you never know…maybe the Toffees’ comeback win over Watford in GW11 will kick-start their season. If only for Guy’s sake.
#2) Huddersfield – BOU (A), MCI (H), ARS (A)
If you do happen to own a Huddersfield player, then it’s likely it’s in defence (with the possible exception of Mooy). If that is the case, the outlook isn’t great. The Terriers start off with a trip to in-form Bournemouth, before hosting Man City – we know all about them – followed by a visit to the Emirates, where Arsenal just love bullying the little teams in the playground.
#3) Leicester – MCI (H), WHU (A), TOT (H)
For some reason I have Andy King in my FPL team. I don’t remember when this happened, but I’d like to have a stern word in the ear of my former self about his selection. Alas, it is done now, and I’m faced with the prospect of him trundling off the bench for 20-minute cameos against the likes of Man City and Spurs in the coming weeks. If you, like me, have Andy King in your team, help is at hand. Comment below and we can pull through this together.
That was a fairly elaborate way of saying that Leicester have some crap fixtures coming up.
LONGER TERM
Perhaps you want to look a little further ahead. If we extend the outlook to include the next five fixtures, here’s the average Fixture Difficulty Rating (FDR) for each team (the lower the number, the ‘easier’ the run of fixtures):
Chelsea and Liverpool start to come into the picture with a healthy run of games over the next couple of months. Palace have what is deemed as a very favourable run, but I wouldn’t suggest you rush out to snap up their players just yet. Then again, I own Andy King. Should you really be taking my advice?
How reliable is FDR as a tool for FPL players, anyway? Do outcomes meet expectations? Here’s a graph which shows the average points scored by all players (per appearance) in fixtures against teams with FDR ratings 2 – 5 (1 is seldom used as a rating and the sample was too small to include at this stage of the season):
On average, most FPL points are scored by players facing teams who are given an FDR rating of 2, followed by 3, 5 and 4. It’s more or less what you’d expect, and at least it doesn’t render my previous table a complete waste of time.
*Claims of legal wrangling may have been fabricated for dramatic effect.
Thanks for reading Fantasy Football Fixture Analysis Gameweek 12. This article was written by Mastermind from the Stats Zone
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Afternoon all, so what are peoples predictions for this weekends results?
I’ll post mine below, feel free to disagree and of course post up your predictions!
I’ll also be around for the next hour if anyone has any pressing issues, RMT’s or any general FPL musings!
Arsenal v Tottenham 1-1
Bournemouth v Huddersfield 0-0
Burnley v Swansea 1-0
Crystal Palace v Everton 1-1
Leicester v Man. City 1-3
Liverpool v Southampton 2-0
West Brom v Chelsea 0-3
Man United v Newcastle 0-0 (wishful thinking?)
Watford v West Ham 2-1
Brighton v Stoke 2-1
1-2
1-0
0- -0
:see-no: – :sleep:
0- :hippo:
3-0
0-2
2- :whatever:
2-2
1-0
Haha nice use of emojis, I fear you’ll be right on my lot… but positive mental attitude and all that!!
I hope that Rafa really muddies the waters on United and turns it into a boring 0-0 game, but I doubt it.
I take that back, I want that United CS wiped out somehow. So a 1-0 win for the Toon be great.
I’d Love it if we beat them, I’d love it.
Afternoon/Evening Rosco. How are you mate?
1-2
1-0
1-0
1-1
0-3
3-1
0-2
2-0
2-2
1-1
Putting some money on it? 😉
Im good mate, I’d have to revise my Man U prediction if I were to do that, even i’m not that hopeful! Wishful thinking!!
Haha you never know Rafa loves playing those Mancs. Could spring a surprise.
My predictions really aren’t that different to yours, Rosco!
Arsenal v Tottenham 1-1
Bournemouth v Huddersfield 0-0
Burnley v Swansea 1-0
Crystal Palace v Everton 1-1
Leicester v Man. City 2-3
Liverpool v Southampton 2-0
West Brom v Chelsea 1-3
Man United v Newcastle 1-0
Watford v West Ham 2-1
Brighton v Stoke 1-1
Still about Rosco ?
Arsenal v Tottenham 1-2
Bournemouth v Huddersfield 1-1
Burnley v Swansea 1-0
Crystal Palace v Everton 2-2
Leicester v Man. City 0-86
Liverpool v Southampton 2-0
West Brom v Chelsea 1-2
Man United v Newcastle 2-0
Watford v West Ham 2-0
Brighton v Stoke 1-1
Rosco if you have time then I’m happy to take this as unofficial Potty style comp and the winner can have a t-shirt?
Say 5 points for a correct score. 3 for a correct result.
Yeah that would be great!
Here’s mine
The Arsenal v Spuds 2-1 (Alli dive & Kane pen for double points)
Bourn v Hudd 2-2
Burnley v Swansea 0-0
Crystal Palace v Everton 2-1
Leicester v Man. City 1-4
Liverpool v Southampton 4-1
West Brom v Chelsea 1-3
Man United v Newcastle 3-0
Watford v West Ham 2-2
Brighton v Stoke 2-1
Evening fellas, much like Rosco I’ll be on the boards but I’ll give you more of my time than only an hour just because I care that much more 😉
Also something I’d be interested to get opinions on is something Rosco mentions in the article. With Hodgson coming in now at Palace and seemingly improving the Eagles especially at the back. Anybody thinking of going with some budget players there?
Personally I’m keeping my eye on Speroni for a cheap rotation with Eliot, Zaha because he’s probably Palace’s best player and maybe Milijoevic for a different 4.5 mid. Anyone else?
I think it’s fair to say I’ll be keeping an eye on them, but no plans at the moment!
Hey Swirls, I’ve got 2 fts this week and I’m considering just using one and doing Pope to Speroni but Pope has the better fixture so I might hold off.
Can’t argue against Speroni. They are going pretty defensive now and he’s so cheap. Dann at 4.7 maybe but there might be better options
Rosco didn’t write the article Matt :hippo: #helptheyoung 😉
Would love to put Zaha in and I think I would now on a WC but not on one of those yet so he will have to wait as I’m happy enough with my 4 mids as they are. Wouldn’t touch their defence just yet.
Haha I’m only realising now I wrote Rosco twice. I obviously meant Mastermind haha
I’m considering Zaha for a WC too but I don’t think I’ll play it yet. If Zaha does keep performing I might upgrade Carroll to Zaha and then rotate him with Wood.
Not the worst idea. Woody may be a bit knackered this week. Have you seen the miles the NZ team are doing?!
Jesus Christ!! That’s some distance. Wasn’t planning on doing the move yet but I just might.
Yeah Speroni is high on my list of possible transfers. Probably next week especially if Palace get a CS at the weekend too. I did look at Dann but he’s not been as prolific as he was last season and I honestly don’t see that changing so might look elsewhere. If the likes of Schlupp or PVA start playing well then they could be an option.
Yeah I think Speroni is best bet. But you don’t want to be getting rid of Pope especially not this week unless you are funding something else
Yeah i think Speroni will be one for next week.
Bit of info for all, Clyne out for another 3 months after undergoing back surgery, good news for TAA and Gomez i think. Mane to be assessed tomorrow (Wednesday).
Evening elle,
I was actually considering Moreno before the news of Clyne being out was announced. Is Gomez the better bet though? I think TAA is the CL defender and Gomez PL, would I be right?
I agree with you but Gomez can play at CB so both could play. Pair of class acts.
Hmmm will have to have a think but I’m seriously considering Maguire to a Pool wingback
It’s Monday today Elle :hippo: #helptheaged
Tuesday.
Just jealous mate. I look forward to being your age and retired and not even knowing what day it is
Evening all just whated to say thanks to all the writers for there articles during the IB good work guys 😉
Many thanks for this Mastermind, great work, you can come again 😉
Yeah City are becoming a bit tedious in this article aren’t they but what can you do! Having written this article for years I can’t remember another stretch with a perma team on there like this. Guess we just pick some, hope they play and enjoy the spectacle regardless. Special One eh Jose? Don’t think so mate, there is one and unfortunately for you he’s down the road right now.