Fantasy Football Fixture Analysis Gameweek 17

Welcome to Fantasy Football Fixture Analysis Gameweek 17. GW16 was the round of action that determined whether or not your team made it into the annual FPL Cup competition. Some of you lost faith in Mo Salah, and there are more than a few readers here that may fail to even qualify for the Cup as a result. If this describes your situation, I have this quote to offer you:

“If pain must come, may it come quickly. Because I have a life to live, and I need to live it in the best way possible. If he has to make a choice, may he make it now. Then I will either wait for him or forget him.”

― Paulo Coelho, By the River Piedra I Sat Down and Wept.

Take these words to heart. Embrace the pain that comes from shunning Salah. Embrace it, know it, and then let it go. You have a life to live, and you’ve no time to waste on planning who to play against a random Cup competitor. You are now free to really put some thought into your Christmas shopping. You’ll find that perfect gift, in just the right colour. The rest of us in the Cup? We’ll make mistakes when shopping and planning holiday festivities. It’s bound to happen. But you’ll win the holidays with all of your newfound freedom.

For those of you with something left to play for – let me say that I’m supposed to bring you another issue of Fixtures analysis. But the staff here at FF247 being the great dudes that they are, have almost given me another free pass. You see, coming off of severe fixture congestion (and moving towards an even more packed schedule), I can’t really be held responsible for my picks here. If a certain manager decides to rotate his team this coming week, who am I to be held responsible? Either way, I’ll do my best here. I’ll do my best to guide ye Salah faithful into the first round of Cup action.

And for those of you out shopping instead of playing the Cup, I’m going through a black fashion phase right now (it’s very slimming – and I need all the help I can get).

The all important FPL FIXTURE TRACKER itself…

Favourable Fixtures
Arsenal – SOU (A), BUR (H), BHA (A)
I’m usually not very keen to tip Arsenal. It’s nothing personal, but they seemingly always let you down whenever your roster starts to depend on them too much. But this being the fixtures article for the week, I can’t find any fault here in this upcoming schedule. It should be noted that Arsenal will be playing Qarabag FK in the Europa League on Thursday – but I’d be shocked if any real team is fielded by the Gunners in that affair.

As for Southampton, well, they’ve only won a single league match all year, so it’s no real surprise that they sit at the very bottom of the table. Burnley are actually coming off a win against Brighton, but their previous three matches were losses by a combined total of 2-7. Brighton have actually done very well in the league this year given their calibre, but they struggle against bigger sides. All that being said, Arsenal look like a lock for 7 points through this stretch, and a 9 point trifecta can’t be dismissed.

Chelsea – BHA (A), LEI (H), WAT (A)
Chelsea are an interesting team this year. They don’t really win in any kind of blowout style. They can’t be trusted to provide a weekly goal scoring threat; and as a part of that, Morata is so bad that he makes Hazard a less attractive option. But Chelsea still defend, and they post clean sheets regularly. Interesting fact: Chelsea have posted a clean sheet on every even gameweek reaching back all the way to GW4.

This schedule that Chelsea have isn’t anything special. It’s not overly easy nor extremely difficult. But it’s the type of schedule that Chelsea will push through with little to no problems as long as they don’t rotate their side too much. Granted, they could stumble a bit like they did against Wolves last week – but remember they did follow that up with a 2-0 win against City right after.

Man City – EVE (H), CRY (H), LEI (A)
Prior to City’s defeat against Chelsea this past weekend, Pep’s team hadn’t actually lost a match, in any competition, since September 19 (a CL defeat against Lyon). With or without KDB, Kun and Mendy – this is still a spectacularly strong side, and their missteps are rare. It’s almost unfair, in a way. Had any other team in the league lost that same trio, they’d be struggling to stay in the top half. But City are that team that can say “next man up” and have it really mean something. Sterling didn’t just fill in for KDB and Kun, he’s the second leading FPL scorer right now (just behind Salah).

And then you look to this schedule, and when you ponder the outcomes in your head, it’s hard to see just how any of these teams come out with a result against City barring something miraculous. Maybe Pep will put the academy side in against Everton to give the big boys some rest? Maybe for an added challenge, Ederson will play in goal with his back to the ball at all times? I mean, what else is there to say? I’d like to think that any team could beat any other team on their day, but I just don’t see any of these three teams pushing City around in any way.

Unfavourable fixtures
Burnley – TOT(A), ARS (A), EVE (H)
Burnley are just barely holding off the bottom three clubs for their continued place in the league. But statistically, they aren’t any better than the bottom three. They’re sitting on a -17 goal differential which puts them on par with Huddersfield and Southampton. They average less than 1 goal per game and concede an average of 2 goals at the same time. It’s all just bad numbers which points to a bad team.

And bad teams stay in the league with timely wins and treading water longer than the others in their range. But there won’t be any timely wins or treading water here. Spurs, with any kind of play from Kane, will easily brush past Burnley. Arsenal away isn’t doing them any favours either. And as for Everton? Everton aren’t as high as City for sure, but they aren’t as low a Burnley. Burnley would be lucky to pull out a point from these next three.

Everton – MNC (A), TOT (H), BUR (A)
Ah, my beloved Everton. I hate having to include Everton in the Teams to Avoid, but I can’t help it this week. The frustrating thing is that Everton have the talent, at least on paper, to play up to the level of the larger teams. What I mean is that Everton could beat Spurs if they played perfectly – they don’t need a miracle, just something near perfection. But as we’ve all seen, Everton still haven’t figured themselves out completely. So demanding perfection just isn’t realistic.

I think that any time any team plays away to City, you just chalk that us as a loss. No judgement there, it just is what it is. Everton over Spurs, whilst at home, might be worth a prop bet in a parlay if you can get the right numbers, but on a practical level, you still have to tip Spurs. And as we just discussed above, Everton will be looking to get some winning action against Burnley towards the end of the month. Everton should be able to pull out 3 points here, 4 if they’re lucky. Anything more than that? Doubtful.

Leicester – CRY (A), CHE (A), MNC (H)
If a team could be a flavour of ice cream, Leicester would be vanilla. No sprinkles, no syrup, no sugar cone. Just plain vanilla in a bowl. Completely bland and yet ever-present. Leicester sit in 9th place in the table. They’re on 6W-4D-6L and their GD sits at +1. They’re so vanilla that it hurts.

If all goes to plan, they’ll get some kind of result against Palace – maybe they’ll have enough to sneak out a 1-0 win. Or they’ll just become a double scoop of vanilla and play to a draw. Against Chelsea and City, they won’t have the goods to push past either. They won’t be too worried though, because they’ll pick those wins back up somewhere down the road at a later date in games that nobody will be watching. There will be a stretch where it will be appropriate to round out your squad with some vanilla points, but this isn’t it.

BONUS SECTION – FANTASY CHAMPIONS LEAGUE!

It’s back with us again on Tuesday so this is just a gentle reminder to get your teams sorted in time.

Deadline:
Tuesday 11th December @ 5.55pm UK time. It’s an early one again, as is now the norm.

Transfers:
You get 2 Free Transfers this week to use before the above deadline.

Order your subs correctly:
Don’t forget that you get to sub in any players who haven’t played on Tuesday for those who did, but who you didn’t much like the score from. Stick your Wednesday players on the bench basically, and make sure there are no Tuesday ones on there or else they’ll be staying there.

Captain Tuesday:
Same principle here; you get two stabs at it so make sure your deadline captain plays on Tuesday and if he fails then you get to switch him for a Wednesday player.

Wednesday Deadline:
Again it’s early doors at 5.55pm UK time so make sure you do all of the above subs / capo changes prior to this.

Fixture Tracker

CL Set-piece takers

*this hasn’t been updated since MD1 but should still be a very relevant guide.

Thanks for reading Fantasy Football Fixture Analysis Gameweek 17. This article was written by Guy Sanchez

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