Fantasy Football Fixture Analysis Gameweek 2
Welcome to Fantasy Football Fixture Analysis Gameweek 2. And as quickly as that, it is all over. All the optimism pumped into you on these boards over the past few weeks has been shattered, all that boasting to your mates that they may as well just pay you the league winner’s money before the season starts has backfired, and all that time picking hidden ‘gems’ was wasted. Indeed, the only hidden gem we truly managed to find – Aaron Wan-Bissaka – was parked on our benches, sandwiched between reckless Enabler A and feckless Enabler B. I joke, of course. We are one week in. I will save you the patronising hare and tortoise, sprint and marathon rubbish in the hope that someone wildcards for the entertainment of the rest of the site.
Gameweek 1 will never go perfectly. I am presuming every single one of us said ‘I had him’ when someone we had three weeks ago rippled the back of the net or grabbed an assist. Some of us probably said it so many times that our mates made it a drinking rule at the pub! Unfortunately, this is fantasy football, and your squad cannot have 40 players in it (and even if it did I bet you would have ‘almost put him in’!)
Forget Gameweek 1; we have a week to pump up the optimism once more, to boast to our mates again, and to find another hidden gem or two. Luckily, I am not on Tips this week so I will just rattle off the teams that have nice, pretty green fixtures and save the hard work for a better man. Sit tight and don’t do anything knee-jerk. If you watched the games, the ‘eye test’ might justify a transfer, but following the crowds of people who get bored after six gameweeks when they have not won a copy of FIFA 19, a match ball, a rucksack and a mug yet is stupid. Furthermore, the prediction websites often get price change calculations wrong at this time of the year so do not let the ostensible hive of activity on those sites trouble you.
Favourable Fixtures
Manchester City – Huddersfield (H), Wolves (A), Newcastle (H)
No surprises here. Just like the site team’s justification for Mo Salah, Manchester City is Manchester City. They breezed past Arsenal 2-0 in their own backyard with even more quality left sitting on the bench. Not only that, but their next six fixtures are as good as you could ask for (I deliberately refrained from saying ‘as good as money can buy’) – the six promoted sides over the past two seasons, four of which will be played in front of a home crowd at the Etihad. Picking players immune to Pepotation – and, yes, that is the best portmanteau I could come up with – might be nigh on impossible, but going without their players over the coming weeks is surely playing with fire. During their 3-0 defeat at home to Chelsea, Huddersfield look much the same as they did last year; rubbish. Wagner’s men conceded 33 away from home, placing them 16th in that regard overall and, having failed to strengthen at the back over the summer (except making permanent signings out of two of their best, Terence Kongolo and Jonas Lössl), I doubt they will be able to put up much of a fight against a free-flowing City team who averaged a staggering 3.21 goals per home game last season.
Manchester City then come up against newcomer golden boys Wolves who looked a bit fazed by all the unwanted pressure that has been put on them against Everton on Saturday. City averaged 2.37 goals per away game last season, and Wolves did not offer enough against Everton to instill me with much confidence of a solid defensive showing against the Citizens.
To round it off Newcastle make their way to the Etihad the following gameweek. Unfortunately for Newcastle fans, House of Fraser is not a shiny new £90m striker but just another business for their owner to add to his mountain of things he cares about more than the football club itself. They conceded a poor 30 goals away from home last season and I doubt they will cause City many problems.
Did I mention that they then face Fulham (H), Cardiff (A), and Brighton (H)? One thing you can do to help you stave off using your Wildcard early doors is to triple up on last season’s champions. It probably won’t be enough in itself to stop you, but at least you won’t have had a total car crash before getting twitchy fingers on the Saturday of Gameweek 4.
As for City defenders – not that Mendy is even a defender – which may prove to be a more concrete way of getting regular starters from City into your side, they only conceded 27 goals in total in the last campaign and neither Huddersfield (0.63) nor Newcastle (0.95) managed to average even one goal per game away from home.
Everton – Southampton (H), Bournemouth (A), Huddersfield (H)
Defensively, Everton looked shaky against Wolves (perhaps understandably after Phil Jagielka’s first-half red card), although the late arrivals of Yerry Mina, Kurt Zouma and Lucas Digne should provide some degree of solidity. They conceded a steady if not impressive 22 at home last season, although Southampton’s measly 17 away goals last year coupled with Huddersfield’s 12 provides strong conditions for returns from Everton defenders. Bournemouth scored 26 at home last year, and will probably beat that tally this year if they start playing Josh King up front and giving him penalty duties (no points for guessing who forked out an extra £0.5m for Callum Wilson’s strike partner). Everton conceded a pretty terrible 36 away last season, which was only ‘bettered’ by West Ham, Leicester, and Stoke, so do not expect a clean sheet there, unless their acquisitions have a bigger (and quicker!) impact than expected.
Offensively, a brace from Richarlison was enough for Everton fans to decide that £40m was a bargain, which they proceeded to let every Liverpool fan on Twitter know about. They scored with relative ease at home last season (28) and the addition of Richarlison will likely see that total passed this time around. At the time of writing the severity of the Brazilian’s injury is unknown, although he seemed to be walking on it okay after the match and Marco Silva did not seem to make anything of it in his post-match interview. Bournemouth had one of the worst home defensive records last season, conceding 30.
Liverpool – Crystal Palace (A), Brighton (H), Leicester (A)
Two away games in their next three might make Liverpool seem a strange choice, but last season Crystal Palace conceded 27 at home, Leicester disappointingly let 22 past them, and Liverpool’s 39 goals away from home was second only to you know whom. Liverpool’s average of 2.37 goals per game at home last season should see them record a comfortable result against Brighton in Gameweek 3 despite strengthening in left and right-back through Bernardo and Martin Montoya, respectively.
It feels wrong, as with Manchester City (and I suppose Crystal Palace now!), to delineate Liverpool’s offence from its defence, but Crystal Palace were strong in front of goal at Selhurst Park (29) last season and Liverpool conceded 28 away, putting them on a par with the mid-table sides. They should have more joy at home to Brighton though, having only conceded ten at Anfield last year with some bolstering over summer, with the Seagulls scoring the joint lowest (10) away from home. It remains to be seen what sort of an impact marquee signing Alireza Jahanbakhsh will have on the club’s attacking returns having only come on as a substitute at the weekend, but he did come from the Netherlands…
Best of the rest
Arsenal and Chelsea would both have been included if it were not for playing each other this coming weekend. They both have a very favourable string of fixtures after their London derby, but like a terrible cliff-hanger in a soap opera, I will leave that for next week’s writer to enthuse you with.
Unfavourable Fixtures
Newcastle – Cardiff (A), Chelsea (H), Manchester City (A)
Newcastle’s next fixture against Cardiff seems relatively kind, although their away form has already been addressed above such that I would not be surprised to see the lads return from Wales disappointed. They then face a Chelsea side invigorated by trying to play ‘Sarri-ball’. I must admit, I did not really know what ‘Sarri-ball’ was. I watched the game, I still did not know what Sarri-ball was, although apparently they have not learned how to play it yet. I tried to find out what Sarri-ball is; ‘high intensity, passing football’, apparently. Ahh, right, sounds revolutionary that.
Whilst I do not think Sarri-ball is some newfangled style of football that will make Chelsea unplayable, I do think that Chelsea’s statistics from last season needs taking with a pinch of salt. Heck, maybe even as much salt as a portion of McDonald’s chips. Conte lost the dressing room before he had even managed to find it! They managed to keep hold of Hazard, which spells trouble for their opponents, although they failed to bring in a striker and have seemingly failed to inject their current striker with any confidence. At any rate, they still averaged 1.68 goals per away game and conceded just over one per game. I think it probably does suffice to say that Manchester City is Manchester City here, away from home of all places.
Brighton – Manchester United (H), Liverpool (A), Fulham (H)
The next two will not be easy for Chris Hughton’s men as they welcome Manchester United to the Amex before their most dedicated fans make their way up to Liverpool, unfortunately to play the ones that wear red, not blue. Liverpool has already been dealt with above, but Manchester United managed to concede just one goal per game on average away from home, so don’t expect your Brighton assets to be raking in attacking points, especially now that Mourinho has Toby Alderweireld Harry Maguire Diego Godin maybe, potentially, hopefully realised that the pairing of Jones and Smalling is not the answer. The visit of Fulham seems a long way away with these two fixtures before it, and even then Fulham appears to have a stronger side on paper than Brighton after a strong transfer window.
Thanks for reading Fantasy Football Fixture Analysis Gameweek 2. This article was written by AT
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How we all doing need to do a TF thinking Daniels to Holebas he was in my team ten minuets before kick off , might even do Ralls to Neves biting at the bit 😉
Silvers, I think you could argue that Holebas has easier fixtures for the next 2 GWs, but not that much better. Personally I’d stick.
There’s been a lot of chatter on Neves today and people seem pretty split on him. I thought he looked good at 5m and he’ll likely be rising so it doesn’t seem a bad move. I’m working hard to avoid using my ft this week though so that I can set a healthier pattern for transfers this season. Again, I’d stick.
Yeah Holebas seems to be a great one! Took 6 corners, 5 key passes and one big chance created!
Tough one Pancho & Zed but his stats did look good also concerned Daniels will lose his place soon & Holebas going up tonight
I’d probably risk it, should pay off in the long term like you said Daniels will most likely lose his place, and if Holebas goes up it’s not a straightforward swap anymore I’m GW3… If Holebas is nailed, he will be up there battling out for the best 4.5m def in the game I think!
Cheers Zed risk but might do it
save the transfer or Jota to Neves?
Or Perreya…
I’d save the transfer. Give Jota another game or two (or three, given who they have in GW3).
+1
thoughts on my team for gw2? gw1 82 points
Looks fine to be left for now.
Evening, all. Hope your GW1 turned out OK, and no major team surgery needed for a while. I’m thinking which goalie to field in GW2: Fabianski (home v Bournemouth) or Foster (away v Burnley)? Am thinking Foster, but open to persuasion/reason… OR is there not much in it?
Thanks
I don’t think there’s a lot in it.
I’m going for Fab but that’s because Fab is all I have.
This doesn’t count as one of my more distinguished posts.
LOL
Fab for me at home just edges it
Thanks, Kralin and Silvers. Torn, really. On the basis that Bournemouth scored in GW1 while Burnley didn’t, and Foster had a CS while Fabianski didn’t, and assuming all other things equal, wouldn’t Foster be the logical choice? OK, OK, Fabianski was playing against Liverpool and not many goalies would have managed a CS…and I get the home advantage thing too, and maybe Fabs might have to make more saves. Even so…
Qwk does Burnley play again midweek in a Europa qualifier? If they do then they will likely be more tired and thus I would play Foster. If they don’t play this midweek the. I’d go with Fab.
Hey, Pancho. I hadn’t taken that into consideration! Thanks. Will check fixtures.
Just like I said, this will be a season of defenders, I don’t understand the people who goes with Salah in squad and on captain since gameweek 1, don’t you want to try somethin different, to have your sugnature in your squad and if that works to be in advantage compared to the others. Fantasy is a game of lucidity and creativity, not game of safety predicting. All of you had wan bisaka in squad, but only because his price is 4.0, not because you beleived in him and put him on bench, so you don’t have right to say ” I was so close, I left him on the bench” no, you weren’t close, you didn’t beleive in him, you used him only because he is chip, and please don’t put players in team only to fill a team. You all put bisaka on bench only to fill a team and now you regret for that. My advice, go with walker and mendy next 4-5 gameweeks(sure points), don’t yet try with, kane, salah, aguero, lukaku… for rest of the team you need to research a little, find yourself, make a surprise, if you take somebody who alredy made a surprise then you’ll be always be for step back. And please don’t put bisaka now in your team, e already made a surprise, that’s it for him, next time maybe for 10 gamweeks, and you’ll be nervous and this is a game of fun and freedom, so just be yourself, ok I stand corrected, getting nervous is inevitable part of fantasy, but it’s stupid to get nervous if you copied the most of players and just went with template, it’s funnier to get nervous or be happy caused with some your unique move. This is going to be interesting season
I’m confused. Did you just tell everyone to make their own choices but then tell us what choices to make, only to tell us again to make our own choices? And people are only allowed to choose players that haven’t scored any points yet, because if they already scored points then they aren’t surprising anyone and we should only sign surprises? I’m confused… 😉
I like him / her Pancho…seems like a lovely person with a chilled outlook on life. I left Wan B on my bench so i’m off now to chop off my left arm for not believing in him … 😉
Vexonja, your spelling is diabolical and/or it’s text speak, please try avoid txtspk, lol. However, what you’re saying is spot on matey, get off the template and have a go yourself, 100% agree, do or die and all that!
I believed in Obi Wan! … I believed he probably wouldn’t get many points as I knew little about him having not been to watch him in friendlies!
He was an enabler to fit in other players I really wanted and have seen before.
After having seen him now though, he’ll still be on my bench most weeks as I have better ones I could afford because of enablers at his price!
Umm, I went with Salah captain because he had the most potential for points for the weekend.
I don’t regret having Wan-Bissaka on my bench. He allowed me to afford more expensive defenders like Mendy and Robertson instead of TAA and Stones/Laporte.
Also, what is the template? The ‘template’ on FF247 is not what it is in the community of 5mln players, so I don’t really understand that either.
Wow, interesting way for a new poster to the site to make some new friends! Jeez vexonja why not say what you really think!! hahaha
Treat ’em mean, keep ’em keen
It definitely will be an interesting season if you keep posting.
I need to pee, but everyone else would just go to the bathroom, so I am going to hold it. Unless, I always believed in going to the bathroom then it be fair if I went now, but not sure if I be going out of my own conviction or because others thought it was a good idea and their ideas were pushed on me.
‘but it’s stupid to get nervous if you copied the most of pissers and just went with template, it’s funnier to get nervous or be happy caused with some your unique move’
You right, not going to the bathroom does have me nervous. 😉
I just laughed and a little wee came out, I usually just go but I’m inspired by you so I’m trying out something new now too, it’s called ‘tramps pants’ where I literally just wee my pants as and when… not sure I like it just yet ….
I do agree with a lot of what you’re saying… I also disagree with a lot of what you’re saying… It’s quite close to a 50/50…
Here’s to an interesting season!!! *cheers*
Oh no! Mané went up in price last night, hmm I am now stuck with Eriksen, I hope I do not regret not getting in Mane when I could even though it would have cost a 4pt hit.
Do you not keep an eye no the price rises?
I certainly would not recommend running your team beholding to prices changes, but it’s worth keeping an eye on them incase someone you do want is likely to rise, and price you out of your moves.
I think in this instance it could be a blessing, no need to ditch a seasoned performer like Erik after one game, he could easily outscore Mane this GW. I have Firmino and not Mane but I’ll be sticking to that for now, as it could just as easily be Bobby picking up the points next week.
To be fair I would have been hesitant to act on price changes last night given how poor the predictions usually are at the start of the season
This is fair, although Mane was one of about 7 players who would rise at some point this week, seems they’re not a million miles out with their predictions but that will improve over the coming weeks I’m sure.
They had loads to go up on Sunday night, and none did! But yeah, should be improving every day. Sunday would have been nigh on impossible to predict!
Yes I keep an eye on the prices, a few were supposed to go up the other day but they didn’t, I looked last night but didn’t see Mane over the Delta, I then looked this morning to see he had gone up in price, it is too late now he will never come back down to £9.5m unless he is out for a while injured.
I am hoping that Eriksen will do as well if not better than he has done in previous seasons, he is also a bit of a differential but he needs to start performing, he was going to be dropped for Mane otherwise but it’s too late for that now.
Yeah it’s hard to monitor as one site will say a player is going up whist another won’t, I know on FFix he was predicted to rise last night but then he was on Sunday too. It’ll be interested to see if any of tonight’s predicted risers go up, but it always takes a few weeks to settle.
That’s interesting, http://www.fplstatistics.co.uk/ has no one to rise at the moment… So quite a difference between the two sites, will be keen to see which site is more closer to the truth in a few weeks time!
Correct me if I’m wrong, but fplstats only tells you once someone is over their threshold, whereas fffix looks at hourly rate of change to work out when they will change? Still, on the basis, you’d expect some to be over the thresholds on both (those over +/-100% on fix)
Oh yeah, you’re right! It just shows the “current state”, it’s not a prediction like on Fix… I always look at it very late in the evening so it evens that out as it gets closer to the deadline of the change… So very late in the evening they should be similar (of course there are still differences in the way they do predict the changes)