Fantasy Football Fixture Analysis Gameweek 23

Welcome to Fantasy Football Fixture Analysis Gameweek 23.

Hey all, it’s Guy – reporting once again from the Colonies. Funny thing about being in the States right now, our government is shut down – but the internet still works. So I guess that means I have no excuse not to do my part and write this article on the upcoming fixtures.

But I’m writing it a bit differently this week. Maybe it’s the new year, maybe it’s seeing Everton win a game… I don’t know. But I want to elaborate a bit more on the Best Bets this week. On the Teams to Avoid section, I’ll keep that short and sweet, no need to elaborate on those teams to the point of exhaustion, right? Why kick them while they’re down?

So in the effort to be more positive, I’ll use my energy to convince you of why something is good as opposed to why things are so bad. But don’t worry, I still took my shots at Jose Mourinho. I know he’s not in charge anymore, but he still had it coming.

Top 3 Best Bets
Liverpool – (CRY H, LEI H, WHU A)
The good times just keep getting better for this team. Not only do Liverpool sit (relatively) comfortably at the top of the table, but their only real ‘tough’ competition for the next 9 rounds will be playing away at Manchester United in GW27. As the table stands now, Liverpool won’t have to face an actual Top 4 team until March 30 when they play Spurs. That’s just absurd. You could theoretically max out your allotment of Liverpool players on your team and feel secure that they’ll only play a pair of Top 4 teams to close out the year, they’ll never have to play against Man City, and they’ll still get to play each of the current teams in the Bottom 5 of the table. The entire remainder of the schedule for Liverpool is set up to crown them as Champions. This team is so good, and their schedule is so favourable, they could probably re-hire Steven Gerrard to play off the bench and still close this thing up without much of a hassle.

So I guess the real question is: why haven’t you done your part to make Salah 100% owned and added two other Liverpool players to your team? And believe me, as a die-hard Everton fan, I’ll be rooting against them every step of the way. But as a fantasy player, I have to face the facts and fill my squad with the winning sides.

As per usual, looking at just the next three opponents that this team will face, you can’t say that there’s much here to worry about. Liverpool will get two home games back to back, and no other team has made more of their home form this year than Liverpool has. They’re the only team to have yet to lose at home this year (9W-1D-0L), and they’ve also only conceded a total of 3 goals whilst hosting at Anfield – and no other team even comes close to that level of play. Both Palace and Leicester, barring any major moves here to close out the month, just won’t have enough to bring to the table here. And as for the lone road match, West Ham aren’t juggernauts at home; they still have a negative goal difference at home themselves.

Again, and this is not rhetorical, why haven’t you maxed out your allotment of Liverpool players yet?

Manchester United – (BHA H, BUR H, LEI A)
Those of us who aren’t fans of United had more than a few laughs at this squad along the way this year. Under Mourinho, the same predictable behaviour manifested itself time and time again; from feuding with players, setting lineups that you’d only see in Football Manager as a goof, all the way to losing the locker room and losing his job – watching Mourinho coach United was good TV, but it wasn’t good football.

And for those of you out there that want to defend the chosen one and tell me it was the ownership and entitled players that killed the team, save it. Facts are facts and results speak for themselves. Looking at this last match, does anybody out there think that United wins this match against Spurs with ol’ Jose still in charge? Solskjaer had enough common sense to let Pogba be Pogba, didn’t feel obliged to let Lukaku lead the team so that he could pout after not getting service in the box when/if he decided to run…and more importantly, didn’t feel some bizarre compulsion to let Fellaini anywhere near the pitch or the bench. And what happened? Somehow United did enough to beat Spurs at Wembley with Pogba running around like a man possessed and De Gea playing better than he has in… well, has De Gea ever played that well before?

This year’s campaign to be Champions is over for United. They’re not going to make up 16 points on Liverpool and hold off all of the other Top 4. But they are playing better. They might not have regained their former form completely, but they’re certainly playing well enough to take on Brighton, Burnley and Leicester. Whether they get 7 or 9 points from this next run is yet to be seen, but I can’t see anybody taking a bet that they don’t get at least two wins from these next three games.

Brighton pose little to no threat; they’ve lost 7 on the road this year and concede twice as often as they’ve scored. Burnley have the exact same record as Brighton on the road – but they concede even more than Brighton whilst away. As for Leicester, if there were a prize for being perfectly mediocre at home, they’d win it – with 4W-2D-5L, they’re going to be hanging their hats on the 2-1 result against City back in GW19 for a while yet. But nobody expects them to shock the world again. Remember, after beating City at home, Leicester went on to lose their next two home matches… against Cardiff and Southampton.

Tottenham – (FUL A, WAT H, NEW H)
This last spot was a toss-up for me between Spurs and City – but I went with Spurs based purely on the schedule itself. City will have rounds coming up against Arsenal and Chelsea here shortly, and Spurs’ schedule remains in the green for a bit longer. So advantage Spurs. Of course picking them here might be a complete mistake considering that nobody knows if Harry Kane is really truly injured at the time of me writing this article, so if Spurs lose both Son and Kane for these next three rounds, don’t blame me for not having that info prior to publishing.

Now as I was saying above, Spurs just lost to United. And that was a tough loss, but it wasn’t a loss that was due to any lack of attack or passion. De Gea played out of his mind in that game, and Spurs will just have to brush that loss off and chalk it up to the keeper playing one of the best games of his life. Lucky for Spurs, they’ll not face the caliber of De Gea here in this next run of games. So if they’re looking to build up a bit of confidence again, this is going to be their spot to do just that.

Fulham have the worst goal difference in the Premier League at -29. All of those amazing saves that got saved against United would’ve certainly gone in against Sergio Rico. Newcastle are slightly better in the GD category, but with a -15, they’re still deserving of their place in the table. The only real question mark here is going to be Watford. Watford have surprised people this year and currently sit in 7th place. They’re not elite yet, but they’ve definitely established themselves as one of those teams that can beat any other team on any given weekend. They did beat Spurs on their home ground earlier in the year – but Spurs should be able to split the difference when it’s their turn to host.

Teams to avoid
Arsenal – (CHE H, CAR H, MNC A)
If the media are to be believed, Arsenal can only afford loan players in this transfer window and won’t be making any permanent signings to improve the side. So basically, they’re running their team like a League One save in Football Manager… let’s see how that works out for them. For those owners of Auba, this is disheartening. The team has one clean sheet in their last 15 games, yet has the talent in the forward position to beat Spurs 4-2, and yet lacks the depth to build up enough attack to slot one in against West Ham. Arsenal are a confusing team this year even when things are going well. Now that they’ve decided against strengthening the squad, I’d just avoid them altogether when the schedule gets tough.

Huddersfield – (MNC H, EVE H, CHE A)
After 8 rounds of conceding goal after goal, Huddersfield finally kept a clean sheet this weekend in a bid to get out of the cellar. Unfortunately, they failed to pair that clean sheet with any goals – thus Huddersfield remain firmly at the bottom of the table, and they look to be relegation favourites at this point. The draw against Cardiff might be the last straw for this team. Cardiff are the team just out of the relegation spots, and Huddersfield desperately needed to beat them to keep the hope alive as the season moves into the second half. That stumble, now paired with games against a pair of teams from the Top 4 will probably be too much for Huddersfield to recover from.

Leicester – (WOL A, LIV A, MNU H)
Leicester are coming into the toughest stretch of schedule they’ve had all year. Extending this schedule out, they’ll be playing Spurs right after United. They’ll not have time to catch their breath in this run, so it’s a good thing that they’ve set themselves up firmly in the middle of the table. They’ll survive this run with nothing more than bruised pride and the knowledge that they’re not built to pull of a miracle season like they once were. My worry is for the owners of Pereira and Maguire (both largely owned at 12% and 9%) – those owners may want to bail now before the losing starts in earnest.

The all important FPL FIXTURE TRACKER itself…

Thanks for reading Fantasy Football Fixture Analysis Gameweek 23. This article was written by Guy

Follow @Guy_M_Sanchez