Fantasy Football Fixture Analysis Gameweek 30

Welcome to Fantasy Football Fixture Analysis Gameweek 30.

There was a line in a movie once, a real classic you might have seen called “Demolition Man”. You remember that movie? Stallone was a superstar playing a cop in the future, and instead of trying to channel any of the great acting he’d done earlier in his career, he basically just copy/pasted his persona from Tango and Cash into every scene and collected his paycheck. But he did have a quote in that movie that applies to my participation in today’s article: “Send a maniac to catch a maniac.” Great stuff.

Why does that quote, of any movie quote I could’ve chosen, apply to today’s article? Because the powers that be here at HQ looked at the current tracker and decided that FPL is on the precipice of going full FMLS. And you never go full FMLS. So with Cup games and blank weeks and double game weeks upon us, who do you turn to? The old FMLS writer. Send a maniac to catch a maniac.

Maybe they’ve forgotten that covering FMLS fostered a hate within me so deep that I walked away from the MLS altogether? And yes, I type ‘the’ MLS on purpose because calling it ‘the’ MLS annoys the MLS apologists to no end. Well, no worries. I know what I have to do. I’ve got my DayQuil handy should I need it. I’ve got plenty of mockery tucked away for those players that literally can’t wait to TC a DGW player. I’ve been here before. But for the record: “Take this job and shovel it.”

FPL FIXTURE TRACKER

FIXTURE TRACKER LINK

FIXTURE TRACKER 2018/19

Top 3 Best Bets
Liverpool – (BUR (H), FUL (A), TOT (H))
Slow and steady wins the race – at least that’s the FPL theme for Liverpool here in this impossible scenario. Honestly, if you’re trying avoid the trap of outsmarting yourself, it doesn’t get much better than Liverpool. Not having a blank in GW31 is almost more valuable than having to worry about this team rotating essential starters for a second game in DGW32. And I know that this sentiment will fall on deaf ears because fantasy players completely lose their minds prepping for a DGW – and then they lose their minds all over again when the DGW sees rotation or reduced minutes or subpar performances from tired legs…etc.

Liverpool lost ground in the title race against Everton this past weekend (my inner fanboy is still screaming with joy), but if we’re being honest with ourselves, that’s only going to make them more dangerous here going forward. Burnley are just five points out of the drop zone, and Fulham have already sent all of their scouts down to the Championship to get a head start on the competition for next year, so Liverpool should roll those two teams in short order. As for having to play Spurs in GW32, you have to give advantage to Liverpool. Spurs will have to play away to the Reds and then (possibly) host Palace in DGW32, and I can’t see Liverpool letting off the gas at all during this run.

Not only do I feel 80% confident that Liverpool secure nine points from this run, but I think that their overall net score from a fantasy perspective will rival some of those DGW players that people are getting ready to onboard.

Manchester City – (WAT (H), BLANK, FUL (A) / CAR* (H))
If you’re weighing the DGW doubly as heavy as the BGW, City are going to have what you’re looking for. True enough, their double isn’t confirmed yet, but should it come to pass, you have to concede that playing against Fulham and Cardiff is the dream pairing for a team still motivated by chasing a title. As for giving tips on how to navigate your chips and transfers to accommodate the blank, I’ll defer that to the writers later this week. But from a purely Fixtures based approach, this is the team you need to target should the DGW manifest itself as we all are hoping it does.

City will have to play Swansea in the FA Cup prior to the DGW, but Swansea are currently a mid-table Championship side with little hope of playing in the Premiership any time soon. So City should be able to rotate the appropriate amount to ensure their victory in the Cup whilst keeping your key players rested for the title push in league play.

Manchester United – (ARS (A), BLANK, WAT (H) / WOL (A))
United have one of the two confirmed doubles already on the books, and it’s looking like it will be either boom or bust for them – without a lot of middle ground. Even though United blank in GW 31, they’ll be playing Wolves in the FA Cup. So either United will know exactly how their form stacks up against a surprising Wolves team come the end of the double, or Wolves will have learned how to mitigate any damage by that point.

It could be argued that the injury to Alexis Sanchez actually makes United better. No longer will they be trying to figure out how to manipulate their system to include Alexis, now they’ll be free to go back to what worked earlier in the post-Jose era that saw them shoot back up into Champions League spots in the table.

I honestly don’t think Arsenal have enough in the tank to take down United right now, neither home nor away. Watford have been decent of late, albeit against lesser teams – let’s not forget they just lost 0-5 against Liverpool a couple of rounds ago. And Wolves, though on a good run themselves, just have been beating up on teams lower in the ranks than they are. All in all, United are primed to hold their position in the table here for a long while.

Teams to Avoid
Chelsea – (WOL (H), EVE (A), CAR (A)/ BHA* (H))
Chelsea are the team for those that are a glutton for punishment. No matter how smart the Liverpool play might look, there are those fantasy players out there that 100% believe that more potential minutes will always equal more potential points. And these fantasy types are borderline fanatical in their approach. Personally, I don’t subscribe to this theory, but I’m obliged to include this warning here for those ravenous dogs that have long ago abandoned all good sense in their search for the 200 point DGW haul.

Let me explain. I personally don’t think that a team playing 180 minutes in a round is always as important as a team playing just 90 minutes. When you factor in tired legs, you’re going to see some diminished returns on those extra minutes – if you even see your player take the field at all. And Chelsea are set to play a lot of football here in the month of March, too much football for all of it to be any good.

Let’s start out with the fact that Chelsea will have to play Dynamo Kiev twice before BGW31. That’s not nothing. So for those looking at Chelsea as one of the sure picks for the BGW, you have to take into account that they’ll already have played 270 minutes of football before Everton take the pitch. And Chelsea really have their backs up against the wall right now. Do they really go against Kiev with everything they got? Or will they back off and focus solely on the league table knowing that they’re miles from the title? And even if they did somehow get the better of Wolves and Everton, how much will they still have left in the tank to take on Cardiff and (possibly) Brighton? Their schedule looks too good to be true on paper, I’ll admit that. But the congestion of the schedule, paired with the internal struggles between coach and player…it’s all a little too much for me to handle.

But for those of you who will absolutely move to Hazard, Higuain and Alonso in coming rounds, I say godspeed. Just know, if you post your frustrated Chelsea misses on twitter, I will find you and I will mock you.

Bournemouth – (HUD (A), NEW (H), LEI (A))
I’ve seen people touting getting some Bournemouth coverage in my FPL circles as a way to buy cheap, avoid a blank and leave funds for big DGW stars. And when you look at their schedule at face value, you think, that’s not a bad idea. But it is a bad idea. The problem with a team like Bournemouth flying under the radar when they do good, is that they also fly under the radar when they’re doing poorly. And look at their recent results, they’re poor enough to start panhandling. You can maybe forgive them losing to City or Liverpool, but getting blanked in a loss against Cardiff too? That’s just too far.

Maybe Huddersfield are bottom of the barrel and Newcastle are just barely out of the drop zone, but those two teams are in better form over the last five than Bournemouth are. And that’s sad to think about because they are still two very bad teams. But Bournemouth have somehow found a way to be worse over the same stretch. I’m all for finding sensible coverage over the blank week with a guaranteed starter in the next round, but look elsewhere for now.

Arsenal – (MNU (H), BLANK, NEW (H))
Arsenal are the inverse of Chelsea having too many games to play to be worthwhile. Arsenal simply don’t have enough games to play to make them a sensible play, even with a game against Newcastle where their starters will all have the most rest of nearly any team in the league. And the only reason I include Arsenal is because they still have some very expensive players owned in too great of a quantity for it to be ignored. There’s not a lot to say about this team except that I think they’ll lose against United and they’ll be so well rested, they might be a bit out of sorts against Newcastle. Unless you’re some oracle that thinks that Arsenal are going to come out and drop 6 goals on Newcastle and will spoil everyone’s day, I’d have to say that you can find better coverage elsewhere until April.

Fantasy Champions League – Bonus Section
The Champions League returns on Tuesday so we just thought we would mention it by way of a reminder for those that are still active in it. The key points are few but they are as follows;

• • It’s the second leg of the last 16 and you have three free transfers to tackle it with.
  • The deadline is on Tuesday at 8pm.
• But also remember that said transfers are for all 8 games, including the ones that begin next week too.
• Don’t forget to set your captain up, as well as your team itself, in terms of who plays first.




Thanks for reading Fantasy Football Fixture Analysis Gameweek 30. This article was written by Guy

Follow @Guy_M_Sanchez



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