Fantasy Football Fixture Analysis Gameweek 4
Welcome to Fantasy Football Fixture Analysis Gameweek 4. Before the season kicked off, we posed the question on Twitter if you were ready for the rollercoaster that is FPL. Well, as I write my first fixtures article for this season, the ups and downs of the season are already in full flow as early as Gameweek 3, with the relative straightforward nature of the first two rounds suddenly in freefall. Fantasy favourite Richarlison was among a good number of players to be sent off, while only Huddersfield, Cardiff and Liverpool managed to keep a clean sheet and just a few of the most-owned footballers scored highly. No surprise the average was just 38 at the time of writing, before Man United and Spurs kicked off.
It may be early days, but here are some teams to bear in mind when you’re looking at your transfers, as you look to up the pace and beat your Nemesis – or need to rebuild from the complete derailment that has made you feel like your team has a Hex on it, falling into Oblivion. Enough rollercoaster puns, I could go on like a runaway train!
Favourable Fixtures
Manchester City – Newcastle (H), Fulham (H), Cardiff (A)
It’s no surprise the team tipped to win the Premier League for a second consecutive season is the first pick, especially when you look at the games they have ahead of them following the test at Molineux.
To start with, the Magpies’ trips to the Etihad have been very forgettable affairs for their fans in recent years, with Aguero and co. putting a massive 14 goals past them in the last three meetings there. In fact, it’s funny I should mention the Argentinian, as he particularly likes to play Rafa Benitez’s men, having scored 14 and assisted three in 11 Premier League games – of which nine were in the last four meetings. Don’t be surprised to see a good few FPL Managers triple captaining him this week.
Whilst Pep keeps us guessing on who his midfield will be, even in Kevin de Bruyne’s absence, we can look ahead to Fulham and then Cardiff also being put through their paces against the Cityzens. Like Newcastle, the team from West London don’t exactly have the best record when it comes to facing the boys in blue, with the last three games comprising 5-0, 4-2 and 2-0 losses and their last victory being on 12 April 2009. As for Cardiff, well, the teams have played each other 50 times – and Neil Warnock’s team has only won nine of those – however the last time they met in the Welsh capital resulted in a 3-2 triumph for the hosts, so you never know, though the odds will be in the travelling team’s favour.
Chelsea – Bournemouth (H), Cardiff (H), West Ham (A)
Unlike Man City, Chelsea have won three out of three games, having put three past Huddersfield and Arsenal and two past Newcastle (ish – one of the two against the Toon was admittedly an own goal). Also like Pep’s men, there is also the spectre of rotation looming, especially with Hazard making his first start in the fixture just gone. As the Harry J Allstars’ Liquidator rings out around Stamford Bridge with FPL favourites like Pedro and Alonso hopefully ready to go, we can look forward to another straightforward home win and, therefore, the points piling in. Right? Well, that may not have been the case the last time the two sides met, as the Cherries headed back to the south coast with a 3-0 win, but the Blues have been triumphant five consecutive times before that, scoring 13 and conceding just three in that period. On their current form – and the presumption their high profile players won’t start having another strop – you wouldn’t be surprised to see another win for Sarri’s team, even with Bournemouth’s impressive start that has seen them pick up seven points out of a possible nine, albeit against easier opposition.
Once the international break is out of the way, Cardiff City come to Stamford Bridge which will be on the back of playing Arsenal, who have the potential to give their own brand of welcome to the Premier League. Following that, it’s a trip to West Ham which does show a mixed affair when it comes to previous meetings as Chelsea have had a draw, two losses and two wins to make up the last five times they have faced the Hammers though, again, the form they should be bringing to this match should mean the west of London has the share of the spoils over the east.
Arsenal – Cardiff (A), Newcastle (A), Everton (H)
Now with their first points on the board, Arsenal have shown themselves to be not as good as Man City or Chelsea, but better than West Ham – something I’m sure the fans would be delighted with as a status. Whilst Mkhitaryan and Iwobi have rewarded fantasy managers, Monreal joined the party in the last fixture whilst Lacazette, Aubameyang and Ramsey have sat on the sides of the dancefloor looking sheepish and Ozil couldn’t even find his way there, storming out before the latest song played.
Suffice to say, the next three games are a great opportunity for the squad to perform for Unai Emery – if they want to, of course – with a trip to Cardiff first on the cards. Whilst the two teams have only met 44 times, the Gunners have won 20 of those – with eight victories and two draws between 5 January 1980 and today. To keep supporters and the media off his back, the manager will be hoping for a tour de force, rather than a tour de farce, in this one. After that, a trip to St James’ Park beckons which, last time, saw a run of 10 wins and 23 goals scored ended with a 2-1 loss – though lightning couldn’t strike twice, right?! Richarlison and Everton then make a trip to the Emirates.
Best of the Rest
Crystal Palace – Southampton (H), Huddersfield (A), Newcastle (H)
It may seem a bit of a surprise to include Crystal Palace as, unlike Chelsea, Arsenal and Man City, they haven’t won since Gameweek 1 with losses against Liverpool and Watford on record already. In their defence, however, both the Reds and Hornets have shown themselves to hit the ground running with a contrasting three wins out of three.
So, looking ahead to Gameweeks 4 to 6, the fixtures for Roy Hodgson’s men do get quite a bit easier. First up is Southampton who have one point to their name following the 0-0 draw with Burnley and four goals conceded after the games against Everton and Leicester City. The next team, Huddersfield, is finding its second season in the Premier League more difficult so far, having picked the ball up from the back of the net nine times already. Newcastle, meanwhile, haven’t won at Selhurst Park since 24 September 2014.
Manchester United – Burnley (A), Watford (A), Wolves (H)
It may be another surprise to have a team widely reported as struggling here, however this article has been written before the Man U v Spurs fixture and so, with how fickle the media can be, I’ll leave it to your judgement when it comes to the Red Devils and, in particular, Jose Mourinho and his third season.
A winning mentality can be initiated as they face Burnley, a team that has been distracted by European football to only pick up a point in their league campaign so far, leaving them languishing in a relegation place. After that, a more difficult trip to Vicarage Road is on the cards if the home team’s recent form is anything to go by, though the Hornets have only won once in the last 15 meetings against Man United across all competitions – a 3-1 victory in the 2016-17 season. Wolves have also had a very respectable start to their Premier League return, with the 1-1 draw against Man City a particular highlight – though that was at home and a trip to Old Trafford may not be so straightforward.
Unfavourable Fixtures
Cardiff – Arsenal (H), Chelsea (A), Manchester City (H)
Whilst they may have two points – more than Newcastle, Burnley, Southampton, Huddersfield and definitely West Ham – Cardiff, I fear, will be the team that finds itself in the relegation area for most of the season and will be the one that a lot of other squads will eye picking up three points against. Life for them will be very difficult over the next three Gameweeks as they face three of the teams that will most likely finish within the top six and there is little to no FPL points potential.
Watford – Spurs (H), Manchester United (H), Fulham (A)
Even with Watford sitting pretty in third place with nine points and seven goals scored and the likes of Pereyra proving popular in the FPL transfer market, the next three games could prove to be mighty tests for them. No matter how Spurs perform against Man United, they will still be looking to continue their run against the Hornets that hasn’t seen them lose since 1994. Man United come to town afterwards, before a trip down the M25 to a team that could just be properly launching its Premier League campaign after dispatching Burnley 4-2.
Thanks for reading Fantasy Football Fixture Analysis Gameweek 4. This article was written by The Swirly
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Many thanks Swirly – helpful as always.
Just deciding what to do with Richarlison, who I brought in ahead of Wally this week after some discussion with AT:
“Can Walcott head it?” and “Richarlison certainly can, Robbo!”
Stupid me – when he said “it” I presumed that meant the ball, not the man :hippo:
Any thoughts? I’m leaning toward just benching him for the 2 weeks as I think other players need sorting out over coming weeks, and I need to set my team up to be a ghost ship from GW 9-12. I’ll probably want Richy back in anyway so roll my FT?
Oops – team below
If you want him back then just leave him on the bench and save your FT. Your team is ok to ride it out.
That’s a pretty tasty back line you’ve got Robbo!
His fixtures aren’t great atm but I do really like Pereyra! Sure you’ve heard the stats of how many of Watford’s goals he’s been involved in and they are looking decent so far this season ….you could do Jota to him if wanted to keep Ricky benched!?
Fixtures between 9 & 12 are really good too!
Thanks Redkev – Pereyra looks worth considering and Jota is on my “to go” list anyway.
Is there anyone’s season AT hasn’t ruined yet?!
I stand by my comment on the matter
hahah nice work AT! I’ll send you the contact info for my ML opponents!
smooth AT. is he leading now in the contributors league? think he is on around 256 according to fix
He is. And I’m proud of him, he’s my protege. It won’t last though :satansmoking:
Haha – looks like I’m just the latest victim of many!
Seriously though, as the o;d saying goes “you can lead the horse to water but you can’t make it drink” – nobody to blame but myself and dumb luck – though it is good fun to blame AT for a bit as well
Sorry …Re-post!
Right what shall I do everyone? Decent few weeks but don’t wanna lose ground ….should be able to play 11 but got Ricky out, Arnie a maybe and Shaw/Bilva questionable too!
1ft £0 itb
1 – Ricky to Walcott/Pedro (Ricky would HAVE to drop to £6.6 to buy back…don’t wanna be stuck with either 1 of the above!)
2 – Save ft and play Obi-Wan & Arnie/Shaw for next 2/3 GWs
3 – something else?
Wally & Pedro look like rising tonight so it’s now or never :/
Cheers
Bench Shaw, play Arnautovic and see if you have any other changes required on Friday.
I wouldn’t recommend bringing in Walcott if you don’t want him for more than 2 weeks – you have too many other things going on (potentially). If possible, save the FT and give yourself a chance to deal with the rest properly next GW.
+1
After their result tonight I would probably make Shaw your priority. Pereira could be a good replacement and good fixtures other than home to Liverpool this week.
Cheers Robbo yeah I do worry about him and Pereira has been my planned replacement since GW1! Having said that Forza had him and Moura as players of the match and he was only 2nd and 2 points off Smalling for bps ….think he might keep his place and Man U have gotta turn things round at some point…especially with the fixtures over next 5 weeks!? Slightly more worried about Arnie considering his past injury record!? Ricky to Wally could also potentially bank me 0.1 to deal with Hudson later on too…hmm?!?
I would hold fire on Arnie until the last moment as I also recall him being more or less ruled out and scoring a brace in a GW last season.
If you need to sort out Hudson then Stephens is close to dropping in price. No idea what all the sellers expected from hiom as he’s the perfect playing bench warmer and not much else.
i’d wait redkev, you are fine either with shaw or arnie. you will know more on friday
Cheers Dawids just worried that if Arnie is out with his past injury record and Shaw does get dropped that I’d only have 10 playing! If I had Wally would you play him over either of those 2 if they start?
Worth waiting for the press conferences. If Arnautovic is definitely out then bin him, if he has a chance then play him.
0ft, 0.2itb
Walcott in for Richarlison? Feel like I need to take a hit given the quality (or lack of) on the bench.
Cheers for above comment EBC …looks like we’re in same predicament!? Like myself it depends if you have faith in your cover of Tarkowski & Ralls? Burnley could grab a CS given Man U’s form! Ralls could also be swapped to Neves/Jorginho who have good fixtures if wanted to keep Ricky!
Im also a bit influenced by TV and whether I could make money on Ricky to Wally but for a -4 hit I’d probably just say trust your bench and hold!
Yeah pretty similar although I’d much prefer your bench, I have zero faith in Ralls/Stephens.
I expect D Silva to do well and am slightly tempted to go Silva & Wilson in for Ralls & Firmino but feels wrong spending -8 on a rotation risk and Wilson away to Chelsea.
Yeah I think that’s a bit too risky for a -8 tbh! Wilson has always blown hot and cold but Ricky and Firmino to Wilson and Mane could be a safer option if wanna go that route!?
i wouldn’t take a hit EBC, just find a proper replacement for richi. which is a bit difficult. i’ve seen the highlights and wally didn’t impress me enough. pedro is risky.. now i’m looking at schurrle or moura.. what do you think?
Moura doesn’t jump out to me (although I didn’t see the game tonight). Fixtures are tough and Son will be back soon which could limit gametime.
Schurrle a decent option if you don’t have Mitrovic. Fixtures look tricky but Schurrle was lively and Fulham are full of goals.
hey guys,
can i have your thoughts on my team pls?
i’m struggling with the Richi dilemma as i’m not overly happy with any of the alternatives..
now i’m thinking of:
1 Richi to Moura
2 Stephens, Wood to Schurrle, Jimenez (-4) and bench Richi
or any other thoughts?
thanks a lot
Don’t think Mouras fixtures are a huge worry as spurs can score against anyone…if gonna get Ricky back after suspension there are prob better but if you keep him longer he’s got some nice fixtures coming! After his displays I think it’d be harsh dropping him as soon as Son back and Son probably won’t be rushed as been in a tournament ….so yeah think he’s pretty safe for few weeks at least!
Not convinced by options 2 …especially for hits! A straight swap from Woods to Mitro would be better imo!
Not a fan of option B but based on form Moura could be worth a punt.
cheers guys
Finished on 61 and delighted with that! Already done Richy -> Walcott. Gonna wait and see but I’m thinking of Bilva -> Moura as well, with the option to use the cash down the road for Pickford -> Ederson/Allison/Lloris. Thoughts on these ideas?
hey pancho, nice job!
i like the idea of moura. what do you think, can he be nailed on after the return of son? he looked excellent today…
Honestly have no idea Dawids…
They played a pretty straight forward 4-4-2 today, but had a back-3 in the last match. I think Poch will continue to be flexible in his system and Son will see game time in rotation with Dele and Lucas.
Last question on the subject if anyone is still up!?
Who would you play in each GW?:
GW4
Wally v Huddersfield at home
Arnie v Wolves at home
Shaw v Burnley away
GW5
Wally v West Ham at home
Arnie v Everton away
Shaw v Watford away
Wally in gw4
Him again in gw5, unless he did feck all in gw4, in which case, Arnie in gw5.
Thanks mate in that case I’m gonna push the button…just gotta pray Richarlison goes down by at least 0.1 over next 2 weeks
Arnie in 4
Wally in 5
Cheers Chins just brought Wally in after much debating …may play both Wally and Arnie and leave Bilva or Obi-Wan on the bench instead!?
Yeah Red – surely any of them ahead of Obi Wan
If I had to choose one, it’d be Wally for GW4. Huddersfield playing away have the worst stat of allowing the most shots per game out of all the Premier League teams, while Wolves playing away have the best stat of allowing the least shots per game. A coin flip between Wally and Arnie for GW5. Man United have a bit of a crisis on their hands, Burnley and a Watford away won’t be easy. Even though Shaw looked relatively great tonight, I feel like the other two have a better chance of getting points anyway.
Cheers Sergio good to have some stats and makes me feel better about using my ft to bring Wally in! Think most of my rivals woulda done the same move, gives me options over next few GWs and covers any potential Peptation too! Could even bench Bilva or Obi this gw and play both Arnie and Wally!?
I’d play both Arnie and Walcott and have three at the back.
Cheers Kralin…play Bilva over Obi-Wan yeah!?
Home game v Newcastle looks good to me.