Fantasy Football Fixture Analysis Gameweek 4
Welcome to Fantasy Football Fixture Analysis Gameweek 4. Before the season kicked off, we posed the question on Twitter if you were ready for the rollercoaster that is FPL. Well, as I write my first fixtures article for this season, the ups and downs of the season are already in full flow as early as Gameweek 3, with the relative straightforward nature of the first two rounds suddenly in freefall. Fantasy favourite Richarlison was among a good number of players to be sent off, while only Huddersfield, Cardiff and Liverpool managed to keep a clean sheet and just a few of the most-owned footballers scored highly. No surprise the average was just 38 at the time of writing, before Man United and Spurs kicked off.
It may be early days, but here are some teams to bear in mind when you’re looking at your transfers, as you look to up the pace and beat your Nemesis – or need to rebuild from the complete derailment that has made you feel like your team has a Hex on it, falling into Oblivion. Enough rollercoaster puns, I could go on like a runaway train!
Favourable Fixtures
Manchester City – Newcastle (H), Fulham (H), Cardiff (A)
It’s no surprise the team tipped to win the Premier League for a second consecutive season is the first pick, especially when you look at the games they have ahead of them following the test at Molineux.
To start with, the Magpies’ trips to the Etihad have been very forgettable affairs for their fans in recent years, with Aguero and co. putting a massive 14 goals past them in the last three meetings there. In fact, it’s funny I should mention the Argentinian, as he particularly likes to play Rafa Benitez’s men, having scored 14 and assisted three in 11 Premier League games – of which nine were in the last four meetings. Don’t be surprised to see a good few FPL Managers triple captaining him this week.
Whilst Pep keeps us guessing on who his midfield will be, even in Kevin de Bruyne’s absence, we can look ahead to Fulham and then Cardiff also being put through their paces against the Cityzens. Like Newcastle, the team from West London don’t exactly have the best record when it comes to facing the boys in blue, with the last three games comprising 5-0, 4-2 and 2-0 losses and their last victory being on 12 April 2009. As for Cardiff, well, the teams have played each other 50 times – and Neil Warnock’s team has only won nine of those – however the last time they met in the Welsh capital resulted in a 3-2 triumph for the hosts, so you never know, though the odds will be in the travelling team’s favour.
Chelsea – Bournemouth (H), Cardiff (H), West Ham (A)
Unlike Man City, Chelsea have won three out of three games, having put three past Huddersfield and Arsenal and two past Newcastle (ish – one of the two against the Toon was admittedly an own goal). Also like Pep’s men, there is also the spectre of rotation looming, especially with Hazard making his first start in the fixture just gone. As the Harry J Allstars’ Liquidator rings out around Stamford Bridge with FPL favourites like Pedro and Alonso hopefully ready to go, we can look forward to another straightforward home win and, therefore, the points piling in. Right? Well, that may not have been the case the last time the two sides met, as the Cherries headed back to the south coast with a 3-0 win, but the Blues have been triumphant five consecutive times before that, scoring 13 and conceding just three in that period. On their current form – and the presumption their high profile players won’t start having another strop – you wouldn’t be surprised to see another win for Sarri’s team, even with Bournemouth’s impressive start that has seen them pick up seven points out of a possible nine, albeit against easier opposition.
Once the international break is out of the way, Cardiff City come to Stamford Bridge which will be on the back of playing Arsenal, who have the potential to give their own brand of welcome to the Premier League. Following that, it’s a trip to West Ham which does show a mixed affair when it comes to previous meetings as Chelsea have had a draw, two losses and two wins to make up the last five times they have faced the Hammers though, again, the form they should be bringing to this match should mean the west of London has the share of the spoils over the east.
Arsenal – Cardiff (A), Newcastle (A), Everton (H)
Now with their first points on the board, Arsenal have shown themselves to be not as good as Man City or Chelsea, but better than West Ham – something I’m sure the fans would be delighted with as a status. Whilst Mkhitaryan and Iwobi have rewarded fantasy managers, Monreal joined the party in the last fixture whilst Lacazette, Aubameyang and Ramsey have sat on the sides of the dancefloor looking sheepish and Ozil couldn’t even find his way there, storming out before the latest song played.
Suffice to say, the next three games are a great opportunity for the squad to perform for Unai Emery – if they want to, of course – with a trip to Cardiff first on the cards. Whilst the two teams have only met 44 times, the Gunners have won 20 of those – with eight victories and two draws between 5 January 1980 and today. To keep supporters and the media off his back, the manager will be hoping for a tour de force, rather than a tour de farce, in this one. After that, a trip to St James’ Park beckons which, last time, saw a run of 10 wins and 23 goals scored ended with a 2-1 loss – though lightning couldn’t strike twice, right?! Richarlison and Everton then make a trip to the Emirates.
Best of the Rest
Crystal Palace – Southampton (H), Huddersfield (A), Newcastle (H)
It may seem a bit of a surprise to include Crystal Palace as, unlike Chelsea, Arsenal and Man City, they haven’t won since Gameweek 1 with losses against Liverpool and Watford on record already. In their defence, however, both the Reds and Hornets have shown themselves to hit the ground running with a contrasting three wins out of three.
So, looking ahead to Gameweeks 4 to 6, the fixtures for Roy Hodgson’s men do get quite a bit easier. First up is Southampton who have one point to their name following the 0-0 draw with Burnley and four goals conceded after the games against Everton and Leicester City. The next team, Huddersfield, is finding its second season in the Premier League more difficult so far, having picked the ball up from the back of the net nine times already. Newcastle, meanwhile, haven’t won at Selhurst Park since 24 September 2014.
Manchester United – Burnley (A), Watford (A), Wolves (H)
It may be another surprise to have a team widely reported as struggling here, however this article has been written before the Man U v Spurs fixture and so, with how fickle the media can be, I’ll leave it to your judgement when it comes to the Red Devils and, in particular, Jose Mourinho and his third season.
A winning mentality can be initiated as they face Burnley, a team that has been distracted by European football to only pick up a point in their league campaign so far, leaving them languishing in a relegation place. After that, a more difficult trip to Vicarage Road is on the cards if the home team’s recent form is anything to go by, though the Hornets have only won once in the last 15 meetings against Man United across all competitions – a 3-1 victory in the 2016-17 season. Wolves have also had a very respectable start to their Premier League return, with the 1-1 draw against Man City a particular highlight – though that was at home and a trip to Old Trafford may not be so straightforward.
Unfavourable Fixtures
Cardiff – Arsenal (H), Chelsea (A), Manchester City (H)
Whilst they may have two points – more than Newcastle, Burnley, Southampton, Huddersfield and definitely West Ham – Cardiff, I fear, will be the team that finds itself in the relegation area for most of the season and will be the one that a lot of other squads will eye picking up three points against. Life for them will be very difficult over the next three Gameweeks as they face three of the teams that will most likely finish within the top six and there is little to no FPL points potential.
Watford – Spurs (H), Manchester United (H), Fulham (A)
Even with Watford sitting pretty in third place with nine points and seven goals scored and the likes of Pereyra proving popular in the FPL transfer market, the next three games could prove to be mighty tests for them. No matter how Spurs perform against Man United, they will still be looking to continue their run against the Hornets that hasn’t seen them lose since 1994. Man United come to town afterwards, before a trip down the M25 to a team that could just be properly launching its Premier League campaign after dispatching Burnley 4-2.
Thanks for reading Fantasy Football Fixture Analysis Gameweek 4. This article was written by The Swirly
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I have made my changes.
Richarlison > Walcott (did the other day)
Pickford > Alisson
Zambo Anguissa > Højbjerg
Stekelenburg > Hamer (thought “why not, only a cheeky 4pts”)
Decent fixtures for my team in GW so I should be fat with points
So a -12to go with whatever massive hit you took last week. Was it -16 or more. You know it’s about getting the most points
Its early days and the prices are going crazy, you have to speculate to accumulate!
How’s the speculating going so far?
Is your total score positive or negative with all that speculating
Are you Waxy’s in disguise ?? 😉
@swirly-I swear to God, i had the same doubt.. haha. Good man Waxys.
Sorry brooks.
Ha ha 😉
If you mean that Rooney guy, I have had the same doubt for a while too.
Hamer probably won’t be first choice any more
Too many hits man.
Quite tempelted to play my wc but really wanting to wait for the break. I have 0ft 0.8itb but not quite liking king,firmino,luiz,jota,ralls or b.silva i know its still early doors but feel there could be better guys to be had. What woupd you guys suggest?
Don’t see much wrong with going with that. I’d probably play King over Boly
Rogueblood I agree with Smash that King should be in there. Even Newcastle scores inn chelsea. I’d play him over either WannyB or Boly!
Match-1 – Risk-1: Wann Bissaka starts vs. Swansea
you reckon joel ward will start on the weekend goal machine?
I think there’s a distinct possibility of that happening. On the other hand, if he gets the nod then we’ll know he is undoubtably first choice season long.
Evening all
Am I set for GW4?
Looks set Mitro.
Yep looks good
perfecto mitro. should be a high scoring one if every1 clicks
Tomkins first on the bench. First XI looks good.
This. Actualy, Tomkins ahead of Obi Wan, whit the later 1st on bench.
My team going forwards, Rich is benched for now, Jiminez standing in. Any thoughts appreciated, thx
Looks lovely. I do appreciate a beefy defence. Wouldn’t be in a rush to be changing anything there.
It’s my new team after w/c, I like it a lot but need some insight from others, so ty mate.
Must admit I felt it looked a lot like a WC but Richarlison threw me off the scent. Did you play it last week or just done it this and including him regardless to avoid an inevitable future transfer?
This week, the players I wanted mostly have kind fixtures so I decided not to wait for Intl break. I’ll take a good score but my target is to average 60+ pts for the season. You know I invented My Rules, so I haven’t played a ‘proper’ team for 12 years ffs. Last couple of years Ivan and other regulars over at the bright side were nagging me to get a wriggle on and give it a bash. So, wish me luck…
Good luck!
I aim for 63 a week myself, as an average. Sort of superstitious but also has some logic in that that was my average over 38 from my best season and my aim is to try and beat that rank. Hasn’t happened mind you but I keep trying!
What was the winning average from last season, can you remember?
My all time best is 2414pts, averages 63.5pts a Gameweek… 😉
2,386 my highest, though that didn’t even get me into the top 10k that year.
I was 6850 OR, it was the Suarez’s last season when he was suspended for the first 5 (or so) games, 13/14
The amount of points and the OR don’t correlate at all, the seasons are so different…
Oh I know, I got less the following season – the Suarez season – and finished 6k. Stupidly I didn’t captain him at White Hart Lane.
6k, in fact, remains my zenith as a fantasy manager, achieved twice.
2512 won it last year SZ. So 66 as a rough average.
You made me check actually, well not you but me but you know what I mean – I’ve actually beaten that score 4 times but not the rank. Highest score was 2,417 but that only landed me at 6k odd and I’ve beaten that rank 4 times albeit with obviously lower scores. All apropos nothing really but it’s interesting to look. I’m sticking with my superstitious 63 anyway! On 75.3 so far but the first two weeks were probably superficially high across the board. Last week was far more typical.
Correction, the 6k was the season after the Suarez season.
Should just concentrate on RMTs…
Init, what’s your ranking then?
72k currently SZ. Team etc is linked on my username. When I said superficially high I didn’t mean mine btw, just across the board. My average and that rank suggests as much anyway.
chill innit, just curious mate. 72k, I’ll have to chase that down, that’d spoil your day
Apologies, wasn’t being snappy, sorry if it came across like that.
I like your team and I get the Richarlison thing but I’d probably still pop Wally in there for a couple of weeks having thought about it.
I think two doubles in your defence is asking for trouble. Liverpool’s fixtures turn tricky soon. I’d mix that up a bit and think about an Arsenal defender, maybe.
You could also think of three heavy hitters in defence and try to get Hazard in the mid.
To raise money think about a 4.5m and 4m goalie combo; there are cheap playing defenders around (Bennett, W-B).
Yup I know where you’re coming from, full squad now showing. Pool, I’d change the keeper if needed. If CFC have a wobble I’ll downgrade 1 of them if necessary. HAZ, nah, not yet, injury prone and needs a decent striker, but maybe later. My worry is Kun, if he gets injured or rotated could be difficult. Ideally I’d have liked KDB with PEA upfront and a lesser defence, but…
Hasn’t Haz got really good stats against Bournemouth? Great week to introduce him. Good price as well.
Man City attacking players are a continual headache; even when they play there’s the anxiety beforehand they may not.
Jiminez, why bother if you’re going to bench him? Might as well get Zohore, save a few quid.
If wildcarding shift Richarlison and buy him back once his price has fallen, again you save a bit of money.
Zohore? You trying to sabotage me? Lol. I will have playing subs my friend. I will also hold 2 fts for emergencies. 62+ average is excellent, a few years back that would have won the damn thing.
I’m trying to guide you towards the light, SZ.
You may as well play Jiménez than let him rot on the bench, with 2 cheap defenders tucked away there.
I like having 2FTs as well.
I think I’ll be leaning more your way as the season goes on, I’m not arguing the philosophy, more the timing. We can dissect our teams in the break, eh?
Don’t want to spoil your good looking WC team Zorro, but is there a plan in order to get Harry? Kane, that is, not Maguire…
If kun goes…
Evening fellas,
I already used my FT to do Richarlison >> Moura, do y’all think it’s worth it to take a hit? Possibly to do King > Mitrovic, and I also want to get Alonso but don’t think it’s possible without sacrificing Mendy or Robertson (which I don’t want to do). Any thoughts?
Thank you
Pea>Mitro, Ward>Alonso & Cairney>Rich when he’s back. Can do it hit free if you want…
I think I’ll bring Mitro in for King for a hit. Don’t mean it’s right I have the exact cash currently so have to keep an eye on price rises