Fantasy Football Fixture Analysis Gameweek 7
Welcome to Fantasy Football Fixture Analysis Gameweek 7.
“If you never do anything differently, you’ll reduce your chances of enjoying lucky accidents.”
Those are the words of Rory Sutherland, Vice Chairman of Ogilvy UK, albeit it in a different context. Putting John Lundstram in your starting 11 would seem to support his assertion. I’ll tell you why I’ve decided today that I disagree with Mr Sutherland’s opinion later on (at least in the FPL context)!
The FPL community has had to endure a security breach this weekend. Liam Neeson wannabe and all-round hardman FPL Chef was issuing threats to his attacker. Fear not though, Swedish hacker – he is unwilling to travel beyond the Leeds ring road. I am intrigued to know what sort of a person can even be bothered to delete other people’s fantasy teams. What do they gain from doing it? What do they do upon deleting the team: a clenched fist in celebration or a gloat to their uninterested partner? The ‘Chef delete’ probably even got a knee slide. Seriously though, I sincerely hope that none of you was caught up in it. Get your passwords changed, people, and throw in a handful of sexy numbers and funky characters for good measure.
Now, without trying to specifically draw your attention to my embarrassing laziness, if two good teams both play the same two bad teams over the coming weeks, the article pretty much writes itself. Some might call me efficient!
FAVOURABLE FIXTURES
Chelsea – Brighton (H), Southampton (A), Newcastle (H)
What’s the best way to start the favourable fixtures section? With a warning not to pick that team’s players, of course! Despite the fixtures, don’t buy a Chelsea defender. And if you’ve got one, why? From an offensive point of view, however, there is much to be optimistic about. Well, at least once they sort out who’s taking the penalties.
Chelsea’s next fixture comes in the form of a visit from Brighton where Lampard will be hoping for a clean sheet given that the Seagulls have scored just twice in their last five matches after the 3-0 win over Watford in Gameweek 1. However, don’t go reaching for any Chelsea defensive assets just yet – they have conceded in every game so far and Kepa has been beaten more than once in all but one game (Leicester (H)). Offensively though, Brighton’s clean sheet against Newcastle at the weekend was their first in five and Chelsea have scored an impressive eleven goals in their last four matches since Lampard put his faith in Tammy Abraham. Expect goals from Tammy and co. That sounds like one of those clothes shops your other half loves to go into to touch everything and not buy anything.
The trip to Southampton screams both teams to score. Southampton have scored in their last 17 at home and conceded in all but one of those (against Fulham last season). To doctor the well-known “if I were a betting man” saying, I am a betting man and I will be having a dabble on that. Or not, because the odds will probably be awful which bodes well for your Chelsea attackers getting on the scoresheet.
After the second international break, Newcastle travel down to the capital. The Magpies have conceded six goals in three away from home so far; Norwich and Liverpool both managed to grab three after Spurs surprisingly drew a blank. Chelsea have rode out as 3-1, 3-0 and 2-1 victors against Newcastle in the last three meetings at Stamford Bridge (all competitions). In fact, the last seven such meetings have seen Chelsea score 2+.
Spurs – Southampton (H), Brighton (A), Watford (H)
Spurs are always capable of scoring goals, especially with Heung-Min Son back in the side. The Lilywhites have scored 2+ in four of their six games so far including two against City and Arsenal. Only managing to get one at the weekend is probably explicable by the benching of Eriksen. Defensively, I am toying with a straight switch from KWP (yes, I still have him) to Serge Aurier, who was unfortunate to not get a goal at the weekend to add to the two assists against Crystal Palace. They have not been the defensive fortress of old for a while now though and just the one clean sheet all season is certainly off-putting. The next few fixtures are considerably better than the opening six though and could be worth chasing.
Spurs’ next match is Southampton at home. The Saints actually have two clean sheets and two wins in three away from St Mary’s this season, although Sheffield United and Brighton are not close to Spurs’ level and the other game was a 3-0 battering at the hands of Burnley so there is certainly potential for success at both ends of the field for Pochettino’s men.
Gameweek 8’s trip to Brighton also has potential for a clean sheet. As noted above, Brighton ain’t scoring. The weekend’s 0-0 bore-draw against Newcastle was yet another poor offensive performance, typified by the gaffer substituting his entire front line. Brighton’s defence has already been discussed above. I told you I was going to be lazy.
The battered and bruised Hornets will probably come to Spurs in Gameweek 9 just happy they aren’t playing City. I had written a few notes on what to write in this paragraph before Saturday’s game: “Rock bottom of the table with just two points. Conceded in every game so far, shipping eight at home but only two away”. 90 minutes of football later and Watford have now conceded fewer at home
than away! With just the four goals so far this season and only one away from home (against Newcastle), Watford is another game that offers Spurs a good chance of a clean sheet. So three pretty good games coming up from a defensive point of view. If I bring in Aurier, know that it isn’t a stupid transfer but merely a bid to increase my chances of a lucky accident.
Norwich – Crystal Palace (A), Aston Villa (H), Bournemouth (A)
Norwich currently sit in 16th and people are talking about doubling up on their attackers. Are we going mad? Well, they have scored 2+ in 4/6 games so far in a tough fixture list that included Liverpool (1), Chelsea (2) and Manchester City (3). Their attacking ‘who is defending?’ style of play certainly lends itself to uncovering a couple of attackers with real value from a fantasy perspective. That style of play does make it pointless to discuss clean sheet potential though. We might discuss it when they actually get one!
Next up is a trip to Selhurst Park. Crystal Palace have actually kept two clean sheets out of a possible three at home – and were only denied a full house by a 90+5th injury time equaliser from Diogo Jota on Sunday – so don’t be too optimistic about this one. Your Canaries are more likely to get some points against Villa the following week though who have played three lost three away so far (albeit against formidable opposition in the shape of Spurs, Palace and Arsenal) and, whilst they have managed two clean sheets already, the promoted side only managed six clean sheets away from home in the Championship last season. Leaky.
Gameweek 9 has a trip down to Bournemouth in store. Eddie Howe is doing a fantastic job again this season but, a bit like Norwich, they are set up to be good in attack but are crap at the back. The Cherries have conceded in every game so far and have only kept 6 at home last season. Another cheeky BTTS dabble? A nice little accumulator is building here. Or a ‘parlay’ – as I learned in Guy’s article last week – which only made me think of Captain Jack Sparrow.
Unfavourable Fixtures
Southampton – Spurs (A), Chelsea (H), Wolves (A)
And this is where it starts to get really lazy, which is just as well really as I note that I am way over 1000 words already. After two tricky games against Spurs and Chelsea (which I have dealt with above) there is no respite for Hasenhüttl’s men as they make a trip up to Wolverhampton. Whilst Wolves currently find themselves floundering in 19th without a win to their name, they have already faced Leicester, Manchester United, Everton and Chelsea. The Wolves match is also after the international break so the cloud of doubt over whether Wolves will struggle with weekend matches following Thursday night European fixtures will not be an issue. That being said, the tie the following Thursday could be an important one which Nuno might wish to prioritise, depending on how the group stage table is looking in a few weeks’ time.
Brighton – Chelsea (A), Spurs (H), Aston Villa (A)
Brighton are in a familiar position perched just above the relegation zone. Last season, they only managed to keep two clean sheets away from home (against Newcastle and Wolves) so they probably won’t be too pleased to see two away fixtures over the next three, especially when the attackers are not firing on all, if any, cylinders yet.
Brighton find themselves in this section really because of the next two fixtures as Gameweek 9 sees a relatively kind trip up to Aston Villa. However, Villa have still managed to score in 4/6 of their games and Villa Park has been a good source of their points (4) so far – all their points, in fact – so a Brighton clean sheet is not a sure thing. As noted above, Villa’s Championship season was not defined by a strong defensive performance on the road though so Brighton will be hopeful that they can turn their poor offensive fortunes around here.
Oh, and before I go, whilst starting Lundstram might support Rory Sutherland’s view, the Sheffield United defender-cum-midfielder also rubbishes it; leaving Lundstram on the bench was just doing what the masses did and yet most have enjoyed the spoils of a bloody lucky 12 point auto-sub. Follow the masses or go your own way, it all comes down to luck in FPL at the end of the day. Enjoy your week, folks!
Thanks for reading Fantasy Football Fixture Analysis Gameweek 7. This article was written by AT.
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***FIXTURES ANALYSIS GW7***
Our very own self-proclaimed lazy psuedo intellectual tries to explain the theory and benefits of doing nothing, funny that….
Not the best gameweek, seems to be a trend last few weeks! 2FT and 0 itb. Any thoughts appreciated.
(WC available)
I’d be looking to bin Ceballos and making Greenwood into Tammy. Whilst binning Zinchenko.
Which may not be possible with 2FT’s. WC may be a good option?
Can anyone explain why people are buying Gunn with those 5,6,or 7 fixtures depending which Everton turnup??
Herd mentality!? Expect lots of people just look at score board and pick the highest scorer they can afford regardless of fixtures etc. Tbf Southampton defence has been achieving more than expected although with Pope and Ryan only 1 point behind and with much better fixtures lined up I’m not tempted myself just yet!
No idea. I don’t think AT nailed them enough in all honesty, they have Leicester, Man City and Everton after the ones be already mentioned. It’s an horrendous run!
Hey Init sorry to butt in …you guys are over achieving with a new article up already…I posted at the end of the last one before I noticed…any chance of a quick look and your thoughts
Cheers
Sorry Kev, I was in bed by then! Still need help or all sorted?
No probs Init, was late, was just after your opinion on some moves. Made them now anyway, was at a cost of -12 which you’d have probably told me to avoid but always good to hear your opinions if you’re on, free and wanted a look anyway, post 18 has my team on
Another poor game week mainly due to captaining Sterling (Pukki) instead KDB. Big fat red arrow. Down from 73K to 789K in three GWs. Pretty hacked off. Is it time to wild card or should I just sell Ceballos for Mount? Don’t mind taking a hit.
Cheers for your opinions
Pretty decent team there Horse so no need to feel too bummed out! How many FTs or £itb you got?
Ceballos to Mount is a sound move and I’m planning same myself tonight. Only other problem areas are Zinchenko and maybe Digne as plays City this week. I’d say get Mount and play Soyuncu this coming gw … an extra -4 for Zinchenko to Otamendi would be enough to leave Digne on the bench and field a solid 11
Cheers RedKev. I got 1FT and 1.7m itb
Cool so a -4 and Zinchenko to Otamendi would leave you £1m itb yeah!? I’d probably just do that then and hope for something from, Digne,dendoncker, Lundstrom or greenwood (Mis-calculated before)
If thinking of dropping Digne, Aurier could be an option with the extra cash allowing Dendoncker or Greenwood upgrade (Tielemans, King etc)
Good morning Horse – no need to worry there. That bump in ranks only shows how little are the differences between say 1M and 10K. Plenty of time to let that settle down. I don’t think your team warrants a WC – I mean the ones playing it are looking at having something similar with what you have (specially in midfield) perhaps bar the non Robbo/TAA at the back.
Your weakest links there are obviously Ceballos and Greenwood and of course Zinchenko given the uncertainty of starts. You could perhaps bin Zinchenko for Tomori and Ceballos for say Tielemans or Mount for a -4?
That would leave around 2.0 to upgrade Greenwood for a 6.5 forward or Dendoncker to a max 6.5 mid and keep the 3-5-2. Another option is to upgrade Donkey to say a McGinn or a Cantwell and use the extra funds to get TAA – he looks too dangerous atm to not have.
Cheers DMC. Very good points.
.
Ranking drop is annoying. I have messed up the last 3 armbands. Thanks for that Raheem
Yes Ceballos has to go. Mount looks like an ideal replacement especially with Chelsea’s fixtures.
Ideally, I would like to rearrange my team to a 352 or 343, 442 isn’t really cutting it.
I am going to wait to hear about Rashford and Martial and see if Greenwood gets some more game time in the Premier League. There’s not a lot for 6.5m for a striker apart from King perhaps. McGinn looks more like an option and Leicester have done well with their tricky fixtures. Tomori looks a bargain if he is nailed with those fixtures.
TAA looks amazing in the high lights. I could do with him.
Much food for thought.
Most GWs so far this season I have made early transfers but this one feels like one to take my time on.
Horse: Yeah, Mount looks good value for money. The thing is, so does Tammy and Tomori, so what do we do, do we triple on them? Seems too much but yeah could work I suppose. You are right, not much around 6.5 up top so perhaps the 3-5-2 then but it will take you more than one week to ship Digne, Zinchenko, Dendoncker and Ceballos. Can you get TAA, Tomori, Mount and McGinn/Cantwell with that? I think you can and would do it over two weeks perhaps.
Tripling up on Chelsea’s sounds a bit crazy but have you seen their fixtures for the next 6? Also they are cheap so allow the other 7 outfield players to be a bit more pricey.
Maybe Tomori and Mount this game week for a -4
and TAA/Ota and McGinn/Cantwell next GW for another -4.
Horse
FWIW, my early plans are Digne and Ceballos to Tomori and Mount.
Yeah I can see the lure but it does put us in a bit of a pickle as and when the fixture turn for the worse. Granted that’s only in December if you don’t count the City game so why not!!
DMC: Might well be worth a punt. It’ll be good to have those positions covered and not need to transfer out until December. By that time there will be another set of players to jump on.
My only concern is how nailed Tomori is.
GP: Another high scoring week for you I see
. Mount and Tomori could be the way to go.
Got a ticket for the big match tomorrow PUP.
horse
First time I’ve seen Tomori with Chelsea yesterday and he looks a smart player in the making. Read the game well against a quality opponent. Can’t have been easy either having five different partners in defence in the one game. He moved forward a few times as well and I saw his goal at Wolves as well so he’ll have a bang.
With a potential injury list at Chelsea he could establish himself here and for just 4.5mln I think he’s worth a pop.
GP I agree. Having Tomori Soyuncu and Lundstrum at the back certainly frees up for funds of the front 7.
Horse: agreed. I’m on Tammy and Tomori as we speak and had I the funds to do so I’d probably upgrade Cantwell to Mount too. Or Tielemans!
Regarding Tomori: I think he’s now nailed. Actually, I suppose he’s the number one in there atm! Zouma has now been benched twice for him so no doubt he’s ahead of him. The other CB’s keep falling like flys and he’s now had three 90´´ in a row. You’d think Lamps puts in his strongest team vs Liverpool and he was there. Granted Rudiger wasn´t available and the only cenario in which this hasn’t been tested is the one with Christensen and Rudiger available because the only game they were Tomori also featured in that 3-5-2 at Wolves. Surely for the next couple though he’s nailed.
DMC: Great stuff. Feeling quite optimistic again now. With Tomori and Mount and a cheap defence I can get this team in for a WC. Looks tasty
My present team is:
Pope Button
VVD TAA Digne Kelly Lundstram
Sterling Salah McGinn Cantwell Ceballos
Aguero King Greenwood
With 1 FT and 0.2 ITB, thinking of playing a WC, though ideally would have preferred playing it a week later. But with the run Chelsea has, need to get tammy or mount which won’t be possible w/o a -4 / -8. Also with large no of price changes expected this week, should i WC now only? Or can hold a week?
Reply fail …comment on next page
Sid26 – it depends on what your WC team would look like. Did you have a go at it?
I would probably WC this team for the simple reason that you only have 7 players that you are condifent to play every week (that’s including Pope…) and you are missing many a in form player such as Son, KDB, Pukki, Tammy. Well, as I say, it depends on what you are looking at in terms of WC tinkering.
Hi DMC,
Thanks for your views here, appreciate that.
Yes, had a go and this is what i am right now on:
Pope Button
TAA Lundstram (Otamendi Tomori Soyuncu)
Salah McGinn Cantwell (KDB Mount)
Aguero (Pukki Abraham)
Have put the new incoming players on WC in brackets. What do you feel about this line up? Missing out on Son here, do u feel he is essential?
Gday all
What a very interesting week and hope everyone went well
0.1 in the bank with 2 free trades. Not entirely sure on what moves to do so some help would be appreciated please
Digne, Zinchenko & Hayden to Rico, Otamendi & Mount for a -4?