Fantasy Football Fixture Analysis Gameweek 7

Welcome to Fantasy Football Fixture Analysis Gameweek 7.

“If you never do anything differently, you’ll reduce your chances of enjoying lucky accidents.”

Those are the words of Rory Sutherland, Vice Chairman of Ogilvy UK, albeit it in a different context. Putting John Lundstram in your starting 11 would seem to support his assertion. I’ll tell you why I’ve decided today that I disagree with Mr Sutherland’s opinion later on (at least in the FPL context)!

The FPL community has had to endure a security breach this weekend. Liam Neeson wannabe and all-round hardman FPL Chef was issuing threats to his attacker. Fear not though, Swedish hacker – he is unwilling to travel beyond the Leeds ring road. I am intrigued to know what sort of a person can even be bothered to delete other people’s fantasy teams. What do they gain from doing it? What do they do upon deleting the team: a clenched fist in celebration or a gloat to their uninterested partner? The ‘Chef delete’ probably even got a knee slide. Seriously though, I sincerely hope that none of you was caught up in it. Get your passwords changed, people, and throw in a handful of sexy numbers and funky characters for good measure.

Now, without trying to specifically draw your attention to my embarrassing laziness, if two good teams both play the same two bad teams over the coming weeks, the article pretty much writes itself. Some might call me efficient!

FAVOURABLE FIXTURES
Chelsea – Brighton (H), Southampton (A), Newcastle (H)
What’s the best way to start the favourable fixtures section? With a warning not to pick that team’s players, of course! Despite the fixtures, don’t buy a Chelsea defender. And if you’ve got one, why? From an offensive point of view, however, there is much to be optimistic about. Well, at least once they sort out who’s taking the penalties.

Chelsea’s next fixture comes in the form of a visit from Brighton where Lampard will be hoping for a clean sheet given that the Seagulls have scored just twice in their last five matches after the 3-0 win over Watford in Gameweek 1. However, don’t go reaching for any Chelsea defensive assets just yet – they have conceded in every game so far and Kepa has been beaten more than once in all but one game (Leicester (H)). Offensively though, Brighton’s clean sheet against Newcastle at the weekend was their first in five and Chelsea have scored an impressive eleven goals in their last four matches since Lampard put his faith in Tammy Abraham. Expect goals from Tammy and co. That sounds like one of those clothes shops your other half loves to go into to touch everything and not buy anything.

The trip to Southampton screams both teams to score. Southampton have scored in their last 17 at home and conceded in all but one of those (against Fulham last season). To doctor the well-known “if I were a betting man” saying, I am a betting man and I will be having a dabble on that. Or not, because the odds will probably be awful which bodes well for your Chelsea attackers getting on the scoresheet.

After the second international break, Newcastle travel down to the capital. The Magpies have conceded six goals in three away from home so far; Norwich and Liverpool both managed to grab three after Spurs surprisingly drew a blank. Chelsea have rode out as 3-1, 3-0 and 2-1 victors against Newcastle in the last three meetings at Stamford Bridge (all competitions). In fact, the last seven such meetings have seen Chelsea score 2+.

Spurs – Southampton (H), Brighton (A), Watford (H)
Spurs are always capable of scoring goals, especially with Heung-Min Son back in the side. The Lilywhites have scored 2+ in four of their six games so far including two against City and Arsenal. Only managing to get one at the weekend is probably explicable by the benching of Eriksen. Defensively, I am toying with a straight switch from KWP (yes, I still have him) to Serge Aurier, who was unfortunate to not get a goal at the weekend to add to the two assists against Crystal Palace. They have not been the defensive fortress of old for a while now though and just the one clean sheet all season is certainly off-putting. The next few fixtures are considerably better than the opening six though and could be worth chasing.

Spurs’ next match is Southampton at home. The Saints actually have two clean sheets and two wins in three away from St Mary’s this season, although Sheffield United and Brighton are not close to Spurs’ level and the other game was a 3-0 battering at the hands of Burnley so there is certainly potential for success at both ends of the field for Pochettino’s men.

Gameweek 8’s trip to Brighton also has potential for a clean sheet. As noted above, Brighton ain’t scoring. The weekend’s 0-0 bore-draw against Newcastle was yet another poor offensive performance, typified by the gaffer substituting his entire front line. Brighton’s defence has already been discussed above. I told you I was going to be lazy.

The battered and bruised Hornets will probably come to Spurs in Gameweek 9 just happy they aren’t playing City. I had written a few notes on what to write in this paragraph before Saturday’s game: “Rock bottom of the table with just two points. Conceded in every game so far, shipping eight at home but only two away”. 90 minutes of football later and Watford have now conceded fewer at home
than away! With just the four goals so far this season and only one away from home (against Newcastle), Watford is another game that offers Spurs a good chance of a clean sheet. So three pretty good games coming up from a defensive point of view. If I bring in Aurier, know that it isn’t a stupid transfer but merely a bid to increase my chances of a lucky accident.

Norwich – Crystal Palace (A), Aston Villa (H), Bournemouth (A)
Norwich currently sit in 16th and people are talking about doubling up on their attackers. Are we going mad? Well, they have scored 2+ in 4/6 games so far in a tough fixture list that included Liverpool (1), Chelsea (2) and Manchester City (3). Their attacking ‘who is defending?’ style of play certainly lends itself to uncovering a couple of attackers with real value from a fantasy perspective. That style of play does make it pointless to discuss clean sheet potential though. We might discuss it when they actually get one!

Next up is a trip to Selhurst Park. Crystal Palace have actually kept two clean sheets out of a possible three at home – and were only denied a full house by a 90+5th injury time equaliser from Diogo Jota on Sunday – so don’t be too optimistic about this one. Your Canaries are more likely to get some points against Villa the following week though who have played three lost three away so far (albeit against formidable opposition in the shape of Spurs, Palace and Arsenal) and, whilst they have managed two clean sheets already, the promoted side only managed six clean sheets away from home in the Championship last season. Leaky.

Gameweek 9 has a trip down to Bournemouth in store. Eddie Howe is doing a fantastic job again this season but, a bit like Norwich, they are set up to be good in attack but are crap at the back. The Cherries have conceded in every game so far and have only kept 6 at home last season. Another cheeky BTTS dabble? A nice little accumulator is building here. Or a ‘parlay’ – as I learned in Guy’s article last week – which only made me think of Captain Jack Sparrow.

Unfavourable Fixtures
Southampton – Spurs (A), Chelsea (H), Wolves (A)
And this is where it starts to get really lazy, which is just as well really as I note that I am way over 1000 words already. After two tricky games against Spurs and Chelsea (which I have dealt with above) there is no respite for Hasenhüttl’s men as they make a trip up to Wolverhampton. Whilst Wolves currently find themselves floundering in 19th without a win to their name, they have already faced Leicester, Manchester United, Everton and Chelsea. The Wolves match is also after the international break so the cloud of doubt over whether Wolves will struggle with weekend matches following Thursday night European fixtures will not be an issue. That being said, the tie the following Thursday could be an important one which Nuno might wish to prioritise, depending on how the group stage table is looking in a few weeks’ time.

Brighton – Chelsea (A), Spurs (H), Aston Villa (A)
Brighton are in a familiar position perched just above the relegation zone. Last season, they only managed to keep two clean sheets away from home (against Newcastle and Wolves) so they probably won’t be too pleased to see two away fixtures over the next three, especially when the attackers are not firing on all, if any, cylinders yet.

Brighton find themselves in this section really because of the next two fixtures as Gameweek 9 sees a relatively kind trip up to Aston Villa. However, Villa have still managed to score in 4/6 of their games and Villa Park has been a good source of their points (4) so far – all their points, in fact – so a Brighton clean sheet is not a sure thing. As noted above, Villa’s Championship season was not defined by a strong defensive performance on the road though so Brighton will be hopeful that they can turn their poor offensive fortunes around here.

Oh, and before I go, whilst starting Lundstram might support Rory Sutherland’s view, the Sheffield United defender-cum-midfielder also rubbishes it; leaving Lundstram on the bench was just doing what the masses did and yet most have enjoyed the spoils of a bloody lucky 12 point auto-sub. Follow the masses or go your own way, it all comes down to luck in FPL at the end of the day. Enjoy your week, folks!

Thanks for reading Fantasy Football Fixture Analysis Gameweek 7. This article was written by AT.

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