Fantasy Football Fixture Analysis Gameweek 7
Welcome to Fantasy Football Fixture Analysis Gameweek 7. Well folks, I did it. I actually scored higher than the average. It only took me six rounds to get my act together, but I followed my own advice (finally) and just loaded up on the smart plays instead of trying to think outside the box. That’s just a polite way of telling you all that I’m really kind of stupid, and sometimes I try to overcompensate for my condition with some risky plays. But when that doesn’t work, I revert back to my natural state and just play some Route One fantasy football. In short, I capped Aguero against a bad team and earned big points. And believe me, you don’t have to be much of a genius to figure out that was a decent play.
In keeping with the theme of staying in my lane and not pretending that I’m some FPL savant, my top picks this week will look quite a bit like the top of the league table. Between FPL, NFL, work and kids being in school, I had to keep myself in check and get back to basics a bit for this round. Route One fantasy football. It’s a real thing, trust me.
The Fixture Tracker…
Gameweek Tracker GW7-11
Top 3 Best Bets
Manchester United – CRY (H), LIV (A), HUD (A)
It was a toss-up this week as to which of the Manchester clubs would get top billing in the article – but advantage has to go to whichever team gets to play Palace at home in their schedule. As we saw with City’s 5-0 dismantling of Palace this past weekend, there’s just a treasure trove of points, on both sides of the ball, for any team that takes them on. And United aren’t exactly lacking in talent at the moment, so it should be safe to expect similar results from them this weekend against a severely inferior team. But let’s be honest, United don’t need to play a severely inferior team to get results. And really, until we get to their next derby, both Manchester clubs are likely to be favourites in any game they play. Playing against Crystal Palace is just the icing on the cake, so to speak.
Maybe United haven’t scored quite as many goals this season as City have, but both clubs have allowed just 2 goals against them through six games. And that’s just madness when you think about it. This is all more impressive when you consider that United conceded both of the goals against them in a single match – so starting the year with five clean sheets is nothing short of spectacular. Now given the fact that Palace haven’t scored a single goal yet this season, the pessimist inside of each of us is absolutely screaming that this will be the game that sees Palace finally get off the schneid. But that’s just irrational fear. Don’t let this golden goose of a game pass you by.
As for Liverpool and Huddersfield, Liverpool will undoubtedly be the tougher challenge of the two matches, but they aren’t an obstacle that United can’t overcome. Three weeks ago, Liverpool lost to City 0-5 (with the aid of a red card), and they then followed that game with a 1-1 draw against Burnley and a narrow 3-2 win over Leicester. In short, Liverpool aren’t exactly defensive juggernauts, and they can be beat. Huddersfield have the third best defensive record in the league, but like I said last week, they haven’t had to play the big clubs yet. Let’s see how high everybody still is on Huddersfield next week after they take on Spurs this round.
Manchester City – CHE (A), STO (H), BUR (H)
There’s no getting around the fact that Chelsea are going to be a tough match for City. But when you consider the games that serve as bookends to the Chelsea affair, it’s not likely that anybody was ever going to sell their City players en masse to avoid this one game; the schedule City has is so good that it can absorb a single tough match. Over their last three matches, City have accumulated a combined score of 16-0. So when you see that City will soon host Stoke and Burnley in back to back home games, it’s pretty easy to just gloss over the Chelsea game as a necessary evil to be suffered for the greater good of your fantasy team.
And that’s not to say that City have no chance of winning the Chelsea match, it just means that any positive points you take away from that game should be considered as a bonus – because we’ve all seen what City can do to the lesser teams in the league, and that’s why they still deserve all of your attention going forward in this schedule of theirs. Looking past Chelsea, Stoke haven’t won a game since August 19 when they snuck by Arsenal. But their form has dropped off as of late and they’re currently sitting on a two-game losing streak that’s seen them get outscored by a total of 6-1. And Burnley are trying to lead the charge to be the best mediocre team in the league. Alongside Huddersfield, they have the most draws in the league (3), and they haven’t been able to score a crooked number goal tally since the first game of the year.
So like I said, just ride out that Chelsea game with your City players, and be sure to stick around for the games that follow it. There’s a points bounty waiting there for those that remain faithful.
Chelsea – MCI (H), CRY (A), WAT (H)
So what if I put the top three teams in the table as my best picks this week? Sometimes the best teams get the best schedules and it makes my job easier. And honestly, you could take everything I just said about City and apply it here to Chelsea. Look past their game this week, and continue to haul in those points with the second two games on their docket. How’s that for some analysis for you? Ignore hard game. Big points on easy games. If you say that in the most non-PC voice you can muster, it’s actually quite funny.
I have no idea how that Chelsea v City game is going to end up. Either team could win, and there could be 6 goals scored in that game or none at all. I know I’m not being much help here with that statement, but just be prepared to ride out whatever the result is to get to the better points that are just on the horizon. And that’s just what there’ll be: points aplenty heading into October. Chelsea v Palace? With the form that Morata is in, that could be another easy hat trick. And against Watford, well, we’ve seen what Watford are actually capable of against big teams (0-6 loss against City still looms large). All in all, there’s still a lot to like in this Chelsea schedule moving forward.
Teams to Avoid
Crystal Palace – MUN (A), CHE (H), NEW (A)
Palace are still the only team in the league yet to get a win – and yet to get a goal. This would be a hard schedule for even the best of teams; for the absolute worst team in the league, it’s a killer. At this rate, Palace are probably sorting out which players they can sell in January to make a bit of a profit before they hit the Championship next season. But they most certainly aren’t focused on winning anything in the present, that much is clear.
Huddersfield – TOT (H), SWA (A), MUN (H)
There’s nothing wrong with Huddersfield, per se. But this is a tough patch in their schedule and will surely put them to the test. They’ve only allowed 3 goals total on the season, but they’re just now getting to the teams that can score at will. I think Huddersfield will count themselves lucky if they escape this run with 2-3 points.
Burnley – EVE (A), WHU (H), MCI (A)
Burnley have only one win in September – and that was a 1-0 over Palace. First of all, everybody should be beating Palace, but just sneaking by with a 1-goal win isn’t really good enough. Burnley are keen to play low-scoring games to a draw, but their away games here are going to put that strategy to the test. It’s possible that Burnley could get through this run with 6 points, but 1-3 points is looking more likely.
One Week Punt
Brought to you with a bit of a different slant on it again this week. We asked our FF247 League sponsor Starting 11 to give us their ‘One Week Punts’, given as this is what they do for a living basically. We shall hand over to them for their One Week Punts line-up for GW7 –
You can download Starting 11 now on iOS and Android.
Thanks for reading Fantasy Football Fixture Analysis Gameweek 7. This article was written by Guy
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Brilliant article Guy, many thanks. I’m still getting over (slowly) how you left me and my FMLS team high and dry to fend for myself. Don’t worry I’ll be ok 😉
I missed the price drop/rise but pulled the trigger on my 2 FTs already this week. Firmino > Morata & Hegazi > Mbemba. Fingers crossed.
Wassup all.
Does anyone know much about the workings of the free hit chip?
Can i make a transfer, say to bring in Player X, and then play my free hit, so that next week my team reverts back to last weeks time including Player X? Or will it always go back to the team i finished the last game week with?
Or, if not, does playing the Free Hit wipe out any transfers / hits already taken, just like when you make transfers and then play a wildcard?
And… does playing the free hit mean i’ll have 2 FT next week? Or just 1?
And… do i benefit from Price rises in my original squad while my Free Hit team are selected? Guessing i must to, otherwise it would imply that the process would fall over when it tried to switch me back to my old squad that i couldn’t now afford.
Damn. This is complicated. Can anyone help?
Hi Chins,
It goes back to what it was at then end of the previous week, I believe.
You lose any saved transfers so back to one next week.
Price rises and falls do still affect your dormant team.
Or what init said!
Thanks Init and DMC.
Chins – the free hit chip annuls any moves made in a given gw. I’m not sure on the second free transfer but yeah that’s what makes sense, even if you had already done one before activating the FH. Price change affects your players and you don’t benefit from those regarding the ones you buy under the FH.
Oh Chins!!
Don’t play it this week mate, it’s really not worth it. City home to Palace, Chelsea vs defenceless Stoke and Gooners home to West Brom would have been great, but this week doesn’t offer those possibilities. United will beat Palace 2/3 – 0 max.
Ok Cookie. But if United and Arsenal both score 4+ i’m going to hunt you down.
Hi.
I have already transfered inn Jones for next GW. Any other comments about my team? Im working on getting a solution on how to get rid og Fabregas, but cant seem to get satisfied. Been thinking about Richarlison , but Watford have shit fixtures comming up. 0 ITB. 0 FT.
Team looks good Kush. I’d be worried about this weekend without any United attacking cover. Any plans to get Kun in at some point?
I havnt had any United players before i just transfered inn Jones now before he went 5.1. Seems to be a surestarter now, so IMO a cheap united cs cover. The reason is personal as i really dont appreciate yhe club as mutch irl… 😛 And now with the price rises i cant see it happens. Depends on how low pogba will go.
Kun i want, but i dont want kane or morata out, so thats a problem also. Firminho better start delivering again or hes out! But i see Fab as the biggest consern atm. Got him inn for 6.9, so isnt so easy to replace
But again, cant be long now before Kün gets injured? 😛
Thanks for the article. Great work as always.
I am not happy with my team. Rang 150k two weeks ago, 450k last week and now 700k…
I have failed to recruit Kun and Morata, instead I have put my money on Siggy and kept faith in Jesus (!) and Firmino.
I was tempted to anger-transfer Jesus, Firmino, Siggy for Kun, Morata, Gross for a -8… except a- that City and Chelsea meet each other, while Pool plays at Newcastle and b- that I thought I would play my WC during the IB, so it would be kind of a waste to take 2 hits immediately before.
So instead I am tempted to hold my transfer, thinking that Jesus will play next WE (while maybe Kun will be rested, who knows!) and Bob will have a chance to glance at Newcastle. Finally, Siggy will have a last opportunity to show me that he wasn’t a pure waste of my time!
Then, during IB, I will decide whether I accomodate Kun and Morata for a -4 or possibly a -8 while keeping my WC; or whether I WC and remodel my team altogether (Alli to Salah, De Gea to Fabianski and one better defender, probably).
Would I be wise to hold my FT even with a frustrating team, or would you take hits/play your WC immediately?
Thanks!
Sorry, wrong (old) team
Vinci,
The way price changes have been, i wouldn’t bother waiting for the international break to play your wildcard if your only motivation is to grow team value. It doesn’t seem there have been that many 0.2+ rises in any gwk so far this year.
Siggy aside, i think your team looks really good. And with improving fixtures and some time to settle, he might come good too.
I’d leave FTs for this week. It might not be a bad week not to have Kun and Morata (although i suppose it could be a 3-3 as much as it could be 0-0).
Cheers Chins.
Last year, I have focused on building a high TV early in the season, but then my money was not particularly useful (even conterproductive since I bought Kun in january and kept him far too long. If you remember, he did not produce anything then!)
So this year, I figured I would try not to be influenced by price changes too much… My team would end up being worth 1.5 less, but I would spare a few hits due to late injuries and maybe make a couple of better decisions…
So far the theory.
In practice Morata and Kun will cost each at least 0.2 more, and Firmino will be worth 0.1 less, so this week only I will have lost 0.5 at least.
Anyway…
And you are right that the team, on the paper, is not that bad (bar Siggy).
But we are in a situation where other premium players offer good prospects. And when it turns out that they (Kun, Morata, Salah, Lacazette, Lukaku) deliver and mine (Jesus, Firmino, Mhiki… and well Siggy) do not, well it hurts!
Hard to find the proper strategy by not chasing last weeks’ scorers, while not keeping faith too long in non productive players!
Nice article, thanks!
Chins, re the Free Hit chip. I used it last week and did alright, 69. But at least half of my team were disappointments… And all it’s left me thinking is how I can get some City/Chelsea cover in! Might WC after this coming week…
Thanks Pippin.
Did your experience enable you to answer any of my questions?
I get what you’re saying though. It would be tough to bring in a player that did well, only to see him transfer back out of your team again. I can’t decide what to do. I might let the alcohol gods decide on Friday night.
lol, sorry
basically I used it as a punt because I wanted Chelsea and City and Arsenal and Everton coverage (only the latter backfired, surprise surprise!). I’d say if you 2-3 teams you want to cover for a week it’s as good a time as any to use it.
That’s what i needed to hear. Thanks Pippin!
Have a good one this week.
Hey Chins,
I can’t answer your transfer related questions with regard to the FH chip but I think somebody was going to try it out on a practice team so will probably be able to answer this when they see it (GP rings a bell but can’t remember if it was def him?)
What I would say is that the FH chip could be better saved for the BGW. Last season I spent 3-4 weeks prioritising players with a match (think it was GW35) and whilst I did ok in the GW and made some progress in rank, I missed out on a lot of other transfers and points I would have otherwise made. I think to have the luxury of literally dealing with the BGW in isolation without any hits will outweigh its use in a regular GW. This is of course pure conjecture and we’ll have to wait and see what fixtures that BGW brings, but i’d be kicking myself to blow it early and regret not saving it. Just my thoughts though!
Pancho did it!
This is exactly when I plan to use it. That BGW can mess up your team royally and it can affect it both the week before and for a few after it if you’re not careful.
Rosco, you make a good point sir. There is just no damn certainly what the blank / DGW’s are going to look like.
A Lukaku double digit score with the armband this week, plus Miki, plus Lacazette and a goonie defender or two that i don’t currently have could boost me right up the rankings. I have no recollection for how many points i could gain by using the chip to load up in a BGW so it’s hard to compare. Especially as you normally have a few weeks to plan for it.
I might go for it, and you can all learn from my mistakes.
I dont think you should use it with that aim Chins. Those weeks where several top teams have a nice fixture and you want to load up on their players happen more often than not so any rank boost would be temporary. It’s also too early in the season to be thinking about your OR. If it needs a temporary fix because more than 3/4 of your core players are out for a single gw than yeah, why not, but if it’s just for a given gw tasty fixtures’ I’d leave it for a rainy day (BGW or even DGW).
This is a great read Guy and definitely makes route one fantasy appealing. Might try and squeeze a Chelsea player into my team.