Fantasy Football Fixtures Game-week 23
Given the unpredictable nature of the season we have had so far we were beginning to wonder whether the fixtures themselves were actually even a viable consideration in transfer decisions and as such we paid particular interest to the comments this week to see how many times an answer referred to the fixture itself in terms of whether to pick, play, or transfer in or out a given player. Our extensive research on this matter concluded that at least 72% of such comments alluded to the strength of the fixture ahead or indeed to future fixtures. So it is with much relief that we can safely say that even if ‘anyone can beat anyone’ this season then the strength or otherwise of the opposition does still carry a fair bit of weight. This weeks results bore that out also with the likes of Spurs and Man City playing to expectations with fairly comprehensive home victories and we paid particular notice and interest to those two results as we wanted to know if the stats, form and trends would be backed up by the reality. And they were. Why did we go to such lengths though? Well, because we try and leave no stone unturned and that even extends to checking ourselves at times to see if we are missing anything that would help us to help you. We won’t get it right every time of course but here is how we feel things will pan out for the next few weeks as we look at those teams with favourable fixtures, those to be wary of and those to perhaps punt on this week alone…
The Tracker…
We have rated each teams fixtures on a sliding scale. Remember that this is just our opinion and you may feel differently but if nothing else it gives you a nice easy visual aid as to each teams upcoming games…
We do have a comprehensive library of other useful trackers including the all singing, all dancing interactive one from Calvin Clyne and you can find them all here – Fixture Trackers
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FAVOURABLE FIXTURES
Everton – Swansea (H), Newcastle (H), Stoke (A)
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[/three_fourth]The exodus has begun! A run of one win in six for the Toffees and a handful of blanks for season stalwarts Romelu Lukaku and Ross Barkley is all it takes for both to be sold in their droves. However, the masses are overlooking two things. First, the run of games Everton have had recently. Leicester, Stoke, Spurs, City and Chelsea is a harsh run for anyone in the league and although Everton haven’t picked up the desired results, they have maintained the attacking threat and scored ten goals during the last six – something that bodes well for the near future. Second, the near future! Our featured games this week are all very favorable and after those it still looks bright for us fantasy folk. Those who punted on dropping Everton cover recently may have got away with it to a certain degree but going forward it would, on the face of it at least, be a Seppuku type manoeuvre for our Fantasy teams to be Toffee-less. Lets have a peek at what lies ahead…
Back-to-back home games is always a treat for FPL prospects and that’s what we have, and the opposition couldn’t be much tastier either. The first to visit Merseyside is the nose-diving Swansea. Gone are the days of being a tough team to beat who could play some lovely stuff, it’s all come apart for them (apart from tonight!) and whoever takes the job is in for a hard task to pull them together. Udinese boss Francesco Guidolin is the current favorite to take the post, make of that what you will. Battling the drop and changing manager, they should be no match for Everton. Once the Swans have been dealt with, fellow relegation fighters Newcastle are the next to arrive at Goodison and attempt to upset the party, but we all know how this one should go! A much needed victory last week against West Ham came as surprise to everyone but travelling to Everton and repeating the process is another matter – we just cant see it happening. Comfortable home win. A slightly trickier fixture to finish off with, one that could go either way. The Brittania has been the downfall of many a team down the years and the newer, more attacking version of Stoke have been doing very well for themselves and sit four points above Everton. It promises to be an entertaining game and one that could produce plenty of FPL points to feast on, from both teams.
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Tottenham – Crystal Palace (A), Norwich (A), Watford (H)
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[/three_fourth]Speaking of teams who are doing well for themselves, our next highlighted outfit are doing just that and currently sit fourth in the league, two points ahead of a crumbling United and top of the form table. Not bad, not bad at all. The Pochettino stamp is well and truly on the team now – they currently boast the toughest defence in the top four with eighteen conceded, and are just one goal behind Leicester City for goals scored, making the new and improved Spurs a much more difficult afternoons work compared to the one who on so many occasions rolled over against the better sides and was patchy against the rest. Toby Alderweireld ensures the back-line is made of sterner stuff these days and with young Bamidele Alli emerging as a key figure, along with Harry Kane, the team has youth and hunger in abundance. Sunderland felt the brunt last week and were duly pounded 4-1 in an easy run-out for Kane & co, a scoreline that may well be reproduced over the coming weeks as the schedule continues to shine on Spurs…
Everything about Spurs’ fixtures is positive. Having just battered Sunderland at home, they next make a very short trip to neighbouring-ish Crystal Palace for a game that would usually be a potential banana skin, and still might, but as things stand Palace are having a wobble to say the least. No wins from the last five and not a single goal scored in those games is a clear indication of what’s wrong. Everything! Unless the Eagles can get their finger out during the week then it could be a long afternoon for them and we feel like that’s how it will go with Spurs dominating for the most part. A hop a skip and a jump, and Pochettino and his men go on the road again, this time to Norwich. The Canaries have shown a bit of fight recently in fairness to them but to get a result in this game should be a stretch too far. Back-to-back three goal beatings from Stoke and Bournemouth just about sums it up, Spurs should have no worries here at all. Turn up and win. Much like the last section, we finish off with a slightly tougher game than the previous ones. An encounter with Watford isn’t exactly the toughest game of the season but as we have seen so far, they’re highly competitive and have a very busy strike-force. Ighalo and Deeney have been excellent to date and Spurs will need to be careful or the duo will flip the script and make life very tough for the home side. Still, with Toby keeping things tight at the back we’re backing Spurs in this one, especially during this cluster of games.
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West Brom – Aston Villa (H), Swansea (H), Newcastle (A)
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[/three_fourth]Has it finally happened? Have opposing teams finally cracked the Pulis code? This season it certainly seems that way. The Baggies have kept just one clean sheet in the last twelve, yes, twelve, games in a complete role reversal of what we come to expect from a Tony Pulis team. Predictably tough to play against and a nightmare to break down, Tony’s brand has been a major thorn in the side to everyone down the years and at times even the more flamboyant and creative teams have failed to finish them off. Not so much this season though. Southampton were the latest to put a few past West Brom, running out 3-0 winners last week in a breeze of a game that means three defeats from the last six and just seven points earned in that time. It begs the question: why the hell are West Brom in the favorable section if they’re playing crap and not keeping things tight? It’s a good question, and one we decline to answer. Call it a punt. Now, lets have a look at some fixtures…
If they cant do a job on this lot then consider this West Brom team dead. Deader than dead, in fact. To start us off it’s everyone’s favorite whipping boys, Aston Villa. Rock bottom Villa actually won a game recently, a real game! They won! Shame it’s the only one in the last six and one that really isn’t fooling anybody. They’re bottom and nine points off safety for a reason after all and the Baggies should deal with them handily enough. Sticking to the bottom three, Swansea are, as previously mentioned, on the slippery slope themselves and might well be coming off the back of an utter pasting by Spurs by the time West Brom entertain them. Not that West Brom are going to batter anyone, or anything like it, but another nail in the Swans coffin can’t be a bad thing. A long-running struggle for goals is music to the ears of anyone who still has a Jonny Evans or Craig Dawson lingering about, and indeed any of us who take a punt on these games as a short term differential. Rounding out the dodgiest teams in the league, it is of course Newcastle. Their struggles are well documented at this stage. Every season it’s either a massive battle to stay up or the odd surprise season where things click for a few months and it results in a decent finish. The former looks like the protocol this season, a big struggle. The Baggies have to travel for this one but if they get the results we think they should get in the next two then a trip to Newcastle should be that much easier for them, if it needed to be at all.
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Manchester City – West Ham (A), Sunderland (A), Leicester (H)
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[/three_fourth]It’s hard to know where City are at each week. Are they going to turn up and destroy the opposition with attacking flair and incisive play, or are they going to struggle badly and limp over the line against lame opposition? It’s anyone’s guess but one thing is certain now at least: Sergio Aguero is looking sharp and is instantly breaking our hearts once again. Sold him recently out of frustration? Merked. Weren’t quite sure if he was fit enough for a capo shout? Merked. A brace, an assist, and a scoop of the bonus points brought a haul of sixteen points, or a colossal thirty-two if you chose him to lead the line. Lord Pardew could do nothing as City dismantled his team with ease and in truth could have been a lot meaner if they wished. Just a point behind Leicester and Arsenal now, City have a fantastic run ahead and will hope to pull away from the pack – something that wont be all that hard if a certain someone can stay out of the treatment room and top off a lethal attack with De Bruyne, Silva, Sterling and Yaya Toure to back him up. Right, on to this fantastic run we mentioned…
In great form until last weekend, when they shockingly lost to Newcastle, West Ham aren’t exactly the basement dwellers we would like to see here but they are a team that can be scored against, especially by a powerhouse like City. Recent meetings have actually gone the Hammers’ way with two wins from the last three meetings, with the other being a 2-0 defeat. However, with the aforementioned array of stars all now fit, or very close to being fit, West Ham have their work cut out for them for ninety minutes and despite their best efforts, we feel like they will fall short this time, but might get a goal or two for themselves. Next up is “one of those games”. The ones we Fantasy managers drool over. All we can see is huge hauls from forwards and defenders and stupidly high capo returns, resulting in a beast of a Game-week. City have let us down in these games before but is it likely to happen again this time? It better bloody not! Sunderland are ripe for a beating and of all the teams in the league, City, along with Arsenal, are the ones who usually dish out the mega-beatings and this game has all the marks of one of those. Stock up for this one, for sure. Back to home comforts, City then entertain Leicester. The Foxes have started to come down from their incredible high of late. Just two wins from six is a long way from where they were considering teams like Bournemouth and Villa have not been dealt with well in the last few weeks. For a team who showed so much defensive frailty earlier in the season, they’d really want to get it together before they face an Aguero-led City, or it could be a confidence-killing, season-ending battering they receive.
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BE WARY OF…
Stoke – Leicester (A), Manchester United (A), Everton (H)
Now, before we begin, it’s worth stating that Stoke aren’t in a bad place just now. Much the opposite in fact. A solid seventh in the league and fourth in the form table is good going for Stoke. However, a number of tricky games lie in wait and it remains to be seen whether teams like Stoke can keep the pace and continue to pick up points. A trip to Leicester is one that no teams will look forward to and even if they are tailing off a bit, they’re no mugs and will happily kill off any team who isn’t on their game. This game could be a good watch, actually. Another away trip to United next. On paper it’s a tough game but we’ll see about that. United are on a major wobble but they should be beating Stoke at home. Shouldn’t they? The solitary home game might just be the hardest of the bunch – Everton are the visitors and they’ve shown some great stuff this season, as well as some bad, but mainly good. Have to fancy Everton in this one although it might be tight.
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Southampton – Manchester United (A), Arsenal (A), West Ham (H)
Back to winning ways recently after two and three-nil wins over Watford and West Brom, Southampton look to have come out of their slumber and have played some nice stuff. Another victim of back-to-back away games, it might not be the time to invest in Saints cover unless it’s a punt on the incoming Charlie Austin, who served so many so well the last time he was available to us. Old Trafford first and a game that will again be determined by which United turn up. United will at least be favorites going in to the game and, again, should be winning these games. From Old Trafford to the Emirates and a clash with league leaders Arsenal. The Gunners’ form has slipped a little recently but we’d have to favor them against Southampton at home, especially if Mesut Ozil has returned to the starting eleven, accompanied by Alexis Sanchez. A Payet-led West Ham then travel to St. Mary’s for what looks to be a pretty even match-up to be fair, one that could go either way. Considering the two that precede it, leaving Southampton cover be for a few weeks looks the best route just now.
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Chelsea – Arsenal (A), Watford (A), Manchester United (H)
Four draws and two wins from the last six games isn’t all that bad but, when looking at the opposition, Chelsea have failed to beat Watford, West Brom and Everton, all at home, and United away. One of the victories was against Sunderland so that doesn’t count – things don’t look all that good all of a sudden. Eight conceded in that time doesn’t bode well for some of the coming games and none more so than the first one, Arsenal away. Usually a cracker, this fixture looks more favorable for Arsenal as things stand but you never know in these big games. The potent Watford strike-force follows and another game that will test big Gus’ team. The Hornets have performed above expectation so far and sit a full ten points above the drop zone, and can score in the blink of an eye through their two dangerous strikers. A tough game ahead then. Lastly, the battle of the has-been’s! Not long ago, these two were battling it out for titles and these games were crucial six-pointers. How the times have changed, eh? It’s not easy to put a prediction on this one but some sort of sh*tty, boring to the point of depression draw sounds about right.
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Sunderland – Bournemouth (H), Manchester City (H), Liverpool (A)
Is there even any point in going over this lot? Probably not, but we’ll persevere nonetheless. A few Sunderland players have been doing well recently, namely Jermain Defoe who has five goals to his name in recent weeks and Patrick Van Aanholt, who has somehow managed to score in three weeks running, and pick up an assist! This may tempt many of us to take a punt on the dirt cheap differentials and hope to gain ground, but one look ahead suggests turning our attentions elsewhere would be a wise move. Home to Bournemouth doesn’t sound too bad but with the Cherries having found a bit of form, this should be a tough game, with form suggesting Bournemouth are actually the more likely team. We covered this next game earlier so just a quick reminder. A laughable game against City. ‘Nuff said. The third, and final fixture is Liverpool at Anfield. The ‘Pool have built a hilarious habit of tripping up against weak teams at home but we cant see it happening this time. At least with Klopp in there there’s a team that will attack the bejaysus out of Sunderland and steamroll to a 1-0 victory.
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One Week Wonders
All of the above is intended to give you an overview and an aid to planning ahead but we also appreciate that some managers take things week by week and so here are a couple of games that we feel may offer up some decent fantasy points for this week alone…
Watford v Newcastle
We feel there may be points on offer for Watford here, and at both ends of the pitch. The reason being is that Newcastle haven’t travelled very well this season and have scored just a paltry 5 on the road this season. That is, suffice to say, the worst in the league and in their 10 away games they’ve failed to score in 6 of those. They don’t mind conceding a few too and only 1 team outside of the bottom 3 has conceded more away from home. It’s possibly worth noting though that they did concede 11 of those 21 in just two games against Man City and Palace, although it’s hardly a recommendation is it?! Basically, if they capitulate they do do it in grand fashion. To further hammer the nail home though they also lost away to two teams in the bottom three (Swansea and Sunderland) by a net score of 0-5.
Everton v Swansea
Martinez loves a goal and doesn’t seem to mind which end it is at! Winning comfortably and just need to see the game out to it’s logical conclusion? Not a problem, send on some strikers and take off some defenders and midfielders, that should do the job… Everton should win this one, and it should be by a few goals to nil. Only Man City have scored more home goals and Swansea have only scored 8 away from home, the joint worst effort in the league (with West Brom). So again, attackers and defenders from Everton may be very popular and wise transfers this week. Just don’t forget to factor in the Martinez effect once they are 3-0 up and cruising!
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Fixture Fun
The game-week 23 DEADLINE is 23rd Jan 11.45am GMT
There are a few teams involved in FA Cup replays this midweek –
Tuesday
West Brom
Aston Villa
Wednesday
Leicester
Spurs
Liverpool
Be sure to monitor those games for any injuries or suspensions that may arise as a result should you have players from any of the five teams.
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Thanks for this NIN and Init, mostly NIN I’m sure
Ended on 70 (74-4) and am pretty happy with that. Init, I feel your pain with Ighalo scoring for fun until I bought him 2 weeks ago…
I’m thinking of maybe bringing Vardy back in for him but I’ll want him for Villa and Sunderland at home within the next 5…
I’m glad I’ll have some chances to play Evans and Moreno over these next 6 fixtures as they’ve both felt mostly like unproductive free-loaders this past while.
Thinking of shifting Scott Dann -> Everton cover this GW. Thoughts? Jags seems a good shout. Wish I could get Baines :/
An almost identical score for our team! Guessing we’ve joined up in the middle again since we went our separate ways 2 weeks ago?! If I was going Everton it’d be Baines given the upside on attacking gains, Jags feels like a poor alternative and reliant on a CS only which isn’t ideal for our lot!
Init, so money aside, coming from an Everton fans perspective, which three toffees would you get in your fantasy team? Im assuming Lukaku is one?
Hey Alex, good to see you on the boards. Are you considering going all in with 3 toffees? I already have Lukaku and was thinking about Baines and Barkley, but I’m worried that could be overkill.
Me? None. They’re a bloody liability!
Seriously, Lukaku for sure, the rest are so unpredictable. Baines if I had to have a defender. I probably wouldn’t bother with the midfield. I have Deulefou but I’m not even sure whether to start him, given mainly that Martinez obviously isn’t either! Looked like a world beater for a few weeks and then got dropped as a result! Go figure. I can’t. He’ll probably start the next one and assuming so I’d rather have him than Barkley given the attacking involvement but I wouldn’t go buying him given his rotation issues. Not much help that I realise but it’s an honest assessment.
Init, cheers pal. That kind of aligns with my thinking. Why are you not keen on Barkley? Seems to have been very involved over the last couple of weeks and unlucky not to have scored.
Just doesn’t push on and join the attacks enough for my liking. He’s got the ability and the platform but just seems to lack the final drive. He’s supposed to be playing the No10 role in behind Lukaku but more often than not is sat in alongside Barry and Besic / McCarthy. That’s down to Martinez again. Guy needs to spend a few games in the stands and see the game properly as per what Allardyce does. 38,000 other people can see these minor adjustments but he can’t because he’s stood at pitch level and if you’ve ever been to Goodison and stood there you’d know why – you can barely see half the pitch from down there given the huge bevel.
Hey Init, will Baines be on penalties now that he’s back?
Sorry Red, missed this, probably not. I’d be happy enough with his assist potential from open play, corners and FK’s though. Outside chance of CS’s too!
Austin for 7m, is it worth the gamble and how much game time will he get?
@Igy, with rumours that Pelle is leaving, I suspect Charlie takes the job from Long at the first sign of struggle.
However, I believe I seen that he was coming back from a hammy, so it might not be right away.
Hey guys, how’s it going? Not a terrible week, ended up on 65 after a fortunate turn of events sees Gosling come off my bench for a nice 10 pointer. Credit to Gallant (and a couple others like Pancho who was also going with him) for suggesting Gosling for a 5th midfielder- worked like a charm! And thanks to NIN and Init for getting this article off the press quickly so we can start plotting for next weekend.
So I have 2 FT and would like to get rid of Kolarov before he drops tonight. Was thinking maybe Baines for a little differential action, maybe an Arsenal defender, or I could go for a budget guy and use the leftover money to get another premium mid or forward for Mahrez or Ighalo. Any initial thoughts or other ideas with this lot? Who would you bring in to replace Kola?
@Red, how about Kola and Ighalo to Olsson and Giroud?
Probably not very popular considering the GW’s they had.
Trying to work Kane in there, but it will most likely require a hit, unless you unload a premium mid. That defence is very expensive, makes money tight.
Red, hello mate, you well?! Yer, I headed back tot he UK for Xmas and thought id have loads of time free, turned out to be the opposite! I agree with Mito, get in Kane for Igloo. What would that leave you for a Kolorov replacement?
3.3
I see you couldn’t afford it. How about holding Igloo this week, downsizing one of your defenders this week and then making the move next week with two transfers? I think id lose Kolorov this week to say Danels and then Kane and Zouma out with the left overs.
Thanks Alex and Mito, I appreciate you guys taking a look. I’ll keep messing around with it and see what I can come up with. Would love to get Kane but he may just be too expensive with Aguero and Lukaku up top already. Luckily I have Alli who has been playing well and getting in good scoring positions. He’s no Kane though!
Thanks Mito. Giroud could be a nice Ighalo replacement as I can’t quite reach Kane. At 15% ownership he’s a semi-differential too compared to the likes of Vardy and Ighalo.
Thoughts on what second FT should be? Cheers.
Hey NIN, thanks for putting the Fixtures article together for us so quickly. Well done! I think I’d be OK with saving the 2nd FT, although you could drop Ivan for Baines and have a nice little differential attacking defender with a good schedule and pocket the .4. I’m actually thinking of doing Kolarov to Baines this week, probably tonight before the price changes. I have 2 FT as well and might just bank the other one until next week to see how things look. Still have Mahrez and Ighalo so I may monitor and see who gets the chop next week. They’ll be playing for their lives this weekend!!!
Update: Kolarov out for Baines just now. Baines’ 3.3% ownership pushed me over the edge, I need some differentials in my side.
I’d be happy enough with Ivan to Baines mate.
Cheers guys. I’m far from sold on Baines. He has no set piece duty anymore, right? Lukaku on pens. Hmm, think i’d rather Jags to be honest at 5.1m. Simpson –> Jags / Stones?
NIN thanks for the article! Great write up there!
If I had your squad I would think about getting a fixture proof keeper. For me Adrian is too expensive to have as he needs rotating. What about Howard for 5m or Lloris for 5.2m?! You could also go up to Cech to get Arsenal coverage.
Thanks mate, i appreciate that. init did work on it too
I’m quite content with Adrian. Rudd will play this week vs Liverpool, then it’s Adrian for a while if i remember correctly. Thoughts on Simpson –> Jagielka? It would leave me with a defence of Ake-Jags-Walker this week, with Ivanovic and ward to come in the week after for their nice games…
NIN I like the Jags option. I think Init said that he prefers Baines because Jags only has CS potential but I seem to remember last year and early this year that he often cleans up on BPs when they score a CS, so he often scored 9. I am considering moving Dann out for him this week as well. We’ll see :/
init is high on “good-GW-fumes”, don’t mind him 😉
To be fair the attacking threat of Baines is much higher but that’s assuming he’s back on all set-pieces. Jags did get four goals last season and a handsome return of BP’s.
Silva or KDB?
Hey Weller, if Silva is back and starting (he got rested in gw21 for some reason) I think I’d go with him instead of KDB and use the .9 somewhere else. When Silva and Aguero are on the pitch together they seem to boost each other’s points and both score well.
Weller I’m the opposite of Red here as I’d get KDB. I thought he looked much better than Silva this weekend. If it wasn’t for Kun being super unselfish then KDB would have had 2 assists and probably the 2 bonus that Silva got for his tap-in goal. I also think he copes better playing out wide than Silva does.
This is just my opinion though. It’s probably a coin flip at this point so saving the cash may be the way to go.
Cheers lads, crack of an article!
So a gw where all the cheap-to-mid popular choices blanked, except winaldum, and several of the highly-priced-low-ownership ones excelled! Is this ‘the’ turning point?