Fantasy Football Fixtures Game-week 24
Let’s talk strategy! We are talking ML strategy. And by ML we mean mini-league strategy. And by mini-league we mean that one you are in with your mates at work or maybe even just your weekly football game, the one that you talk about, the one that probably means the most to you. The one you want to win, for kudos sake, if nothing else. Well, we want to help you win it. There are just 15 game-weeks left now and so we feel it is time to start concentrating on what is important to you rather than the overall position. Ideally, overall position and ML glory go hand in hand but in reality that is only if your overall rank is such that the opposition cannot touch you. Let’s cut straight to the chase here – if you are in the lead then just carry on doing what you are doing as that is most likely working and why you are doing so well. Basically, let them chase, look for differentials, and probably fail in doing so! But what if you are the Benny Hill in the given scenario?
Well, then that’s different. And difficult. But certainly not an impossible lost cause. The obvious temptation is to simply go differential but that’s not necessarily the right answer. The answer probably lies in doing some planning, preparation and research. Planning and preparation are what this article is based upon, planning ahead given the fixtures and factoring in form. The research bit we cannot teach but we can at least preach….
By research we mean looking at your opponents team/s, analysing their squads in relation to yours, looking at their chips and whether they have used them and using this information to your gain if possible. As a real life example we analysed a ML last week, one that is important to us and one that we win every year. One that we are currently sat in 6th place in. We analysed the top 5 teams and found that the majority of them had already burned their Bench Boost, Triple Captain and second wildcard. We concluded that this may be why we were sat in 6th! The interesting thing was that the bloke in 5th was concurrent with us in terms of points and general chip usage, or rather lack of.
Very interesting. And maybe crucial. In this new world of chips it’s difficult to tell how you are doing in relation to others until you analyse it closely. Our conclusion here was to actually just concentrate on that bloke in 5th as we feel that once the chips have come into play, unless anyone else has an amazing run of captains or something else, that we along with 5th place will be competing at the top come the final few weeks. We adjusted the team accordingly this week and rather than just blindly buying a differential we noticed he had Alli and fancied he may get a jump on us if we didn’t cover it. And so it proved.
This is all apropos of nothing really but we just thought we would share some strategy thoughts with you on a quiet week! Anyway, enough waffling and onto the main feature. Fixtures ahead, good and bad…
The Tracker…
We have rated each teams fixtures on a sliding scale. Remember that this is just our opinion and you may feel differently but if nothing else it gives you a nice easy visual aid as to each teams upcoming games…
We do have a comprehensive library of other useful trackers including the all singing, all dancing interactive one from Calvin Clyne and you can find them all here – Fixture Trackers
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FAVOURABLE FIXTURES
Tottenham – Norwich (A), Watford (H), Manchester City (A)
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Another week another stroll for Spurs. Sitting top of the form table again this week, with just the one defeat from the last six, Spurs extended their lead over fifth placed Manchester United to five points last weekend by putting Palace to the sword. A very productive cameo from one of last seasons budget midfielders, Nacer Chadli, bagging a goal and assist, Harry Kane’s solitary strike and a wonder goal from Dele Alli was more than enough to defeat out of form Palace and cement Spurs’ place in the top four. Pochettino will be delighted with how this season is panning out, especially as long as the forever wobbly United are the next best, position wise, that the league can offer. Looking ahead there are still plenty of excellent games for Spurs as well as some key, and more difficult encounters too. Our three featured games mix in a bit of both so lets get on to the games themselves and see what lies ahead…
Not a bad start. Despite remaining on their travels for Game-week twenty-four Kane and co will again be up against weaker opposition and we wouldn’t be at all surprised to see a similar scoreline to last weeks result against Crystal Palace. Norwich is the destination and if last week is anything to go by then the visit of Spurs, in particular young Alli, who has posted scores of 9, 12, 1, 8 and 13 from the last five away days, looks a juicy FPL prospect. Back to White Hart Lane next and tricky Watford are the visitors for what should be a good game but one we’d favour the home side in for sure. Pochettino’s men have been letting it slip at the back in recent weeks with no clean-sheets in five and they will have to remedy that against Watford or risk being run ragged by Ighalo and Deeney. If Watford are a team to be wary of, then our last featured fixture for Spurs is the ultimate team to be wary of. Back on the road for this one, it’s the daunting trip to the Etihad for a tussle with Manchester City, who are now equipped with a fully functional, fully charged Sergio Aguero. City have had lots of fun with Spurs in recent years but this time around things might not be so one sided. City took a 4-1 spanking earlier in the season and their defence still isn’t water tight so although this is one of the harder games of the season, a team in Spurs’s form, or at least the attackers, remain good prospects for this game.
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Arsenal – Southampton (h), Bournemouth (a), Leicester (h)
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Bottle? January? Blame it on whatever you like but it’s certainly consistent. A disappointing home loss to Chelsea only served to fan the flames of what is becoming a running joke now. Every year they trip themselves up at this stage. That loss sees them without a league win since GW20 and just 2 points from 9 means they have now slipped down to 3rd. Playing with 10 men for the majority against Chelsea clearly didn’t help but they need to arrest this slide before it becomes a slump.
They’ve had mixed fortunes against their upcoming opponents in the reverse fixtures earlier in the season, beating two of them and getting hammered by the other! The good news is there were 13 goals in the 3 games, 7 of them coming from the Gunners. First up is Southampton to whom they inexplicably lost 0-4 to just a few weeks ago. The Saints are on a good run now too so this will be a test for sure. Next it’s Bournemouth and you cannot have serious title aspirations if you don’t win games like these. The third is a fascinating one and could either put Arsenal right back in the mix or indeed catapult Leicester to within reach of the unthinkable.
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West Ham – Aston Villa (h), Southampton (a), Norwich (a)
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The Hammers are a bit of an FPL oddity. Despite sitting 6th in the league and having notched a very decent 36 goals you have to go all the way down to 27th place in the FPL points standings to find their top ranked player and even he (Payet) missed seven games on the bounce between GW’s 13 and 19 which says it all about the others really. Had Payet played all 23 games and maintained his points per game ratio he would be sat on 129 points and up there with the big boys so he really is worth your consideration if you haven’t already done so. Aaron Cresswell is his nearest contender on 84 points and may be worth a shout but as we say he’s actually played 6 games more.
West Ham have a good run coming up now and it begins in GW24 with a Villa side who have shown signs of life in the last few weeks but who have still managed to ship 24 goals on the road with just one win and eight defeats away from home. Next is a trip to Southampton which will be trickier but the Hammers have already put one over on them earlier on in the season with a 2-1 win. The third is again an away trip, this time to Norwich who have now lost their last 4 games in all competitions, conceding 14 in the process. It’s possibly also worth noting that after this little lot they have another potentially favourable game with a home tie against Sunderland.
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Liverpool – Leicester (A), Sunderland (H), Aston Villa (A)
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There’s just no predicting what this Liverpool team will get themselves into in any given minute, let alone entire game! The monotonous farce that was the Liverpool of a few months back is now one that is beginning to show the lunacy of it’s manager! Who else could get into a nine-goal thriller with Norwich? Not even the wide open Leicester of early season could achieve such a crazy scoreline. Anyone who had defensive cover in this game did awfully for the most part but it did however shine a bit of light on the attacking side of things, especially for Liverpool. Either side of the one-nil defeat to United there have been high scoring affairs with a 3-3 against Arsenal and of course last week’s madness. Eight goals scored then and one Roberto Firmino has bagged four of them and chipped in with an assist, as well as five bonus points. If he can remain fit then these next three games provide us with good potential for FPL points – anyone for a punt? Lets have a peak first…
A team well accustomed to high scoring affairs this season, although most of the time they have been favourable, Leicester City amazingly remain top of the pile in England after twenty-three gruelling weeks. Three clear of Manchester City the Foxes will be dreaming of the impossible but they have a game on their hands this weekend. Liverpool will, in typical Klopp fashion, come to win and if they can get the first goal, and early, then this one could turn into another feast of attacking hauls to munch on. Wonderful fixture next, one that has hammering written all over it. Most fixtures involving Sunderland tend to have hammering written all over them though! We wont go too deep here as well know the story with this lot. They’re there for the taking and anything close to top form should be more than enough to put three or four past them. Maybe more. We started with the current league leaders, and we finish with bottom placed Aston Villa, a team who for all their popularity down the years look doomed. Although unbeaten in three, Villa are not looking like pulling out of this slump any time soon and we cant give them a sniff against Liverpool, or any team who isn’t in or around the bottom three. Even some of them teams should have little worry with Villa! There we have it, three good games with plenty of attacking potential for Liverpool. Punt away!
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BE WARY OF…
Newcastle – Everton (A), West Brom (H), Chelsea (A)
Not good times for Newcastle fans. Stuck in the bottom three in both the league table and the form table, Steve McClaren must be wondering if there is anything he can do turn this season around, or whether it’s just a matter of time before the inevitable chop arrives. Just one win from six, including five defeats, says everything about where they are at the minute and the fixtures ahead do not look promising. Game-week 23 villains, Everton, are first up and despite their own frailties recently, they should be dismantling Newcastle with ease. Next we’ve got West Brom travelling to St James’ and they will be aiming for the win for sure, but would probably settle for a horrid 0-0. An away day at Stamford Bridge completes a difficult trio of games for Newcastle – Chelsea are unbeaten in their last six and although far from being back to their best, there’s already enough there to brush Newcastle aside. Easy picking for the home side.
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Sunderland – Manchester City (H), Liverpool (A), Manchester United (H)
From bad to worse! One of only two teams below Newcastle in the league, neighbouring Sunderland have it really tough in the next few weeks. Seriously, really tough! This weekend sees the visit of City for what could be an all out thrashing. Many FPL Managers will be choosing their Game-week twenty-four Captains from this game, and rightfully so. Next it’s the trip to Anfield that we covered previously so we’ll skim over that one and look at the last featured game, a home tie with Manchester United. Okay, so United aren’t fooling anyone anymore. The fear factor is gone and teams have been turning up expecting to get a result for some time now, but Sunderland are not a team that even United should be fearful of. Anything other than a win for the away side would be a major surprise.
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Norwich – Tottenham (H), Aston Villa (A), West Ham (H)
Three league defeats on the spin and eleven conceded in that time – it hasn’t been a good year so far for Norwich. Just a couple of points above the drop-zone, Alex Neil will be well aware of the now desperate need for points on the board but looking ahead, a couple of really tough games lie either side of a relegation six-pointer so the pressure is on. Spurs will have no fear this weekend and in truth could put this one to bed early if they start fast. A clash with bottom side Villa is next and this is a must win game. For both teams. We should be favouring Norwich in this one but after seeing how bad things have been for them recently, a tepid draw sounds a bit more likely. Home comforts may not be much of an advantage for our last featured fixture as West Ham are the ones to pop round for some points this time. A few more games under Dimitri Payet’s belt wont do him any harm and we fully expect him and West Ham to be dealing with Norwich handily enough.
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Watford – Chelsea (h), Spurs (a), Crystal Palace (a)
Keeping your Watford assets (Ighalo) proved to be a wise move last week as they (he) did the business against Newcastle but many will now be in a quandary as to what to do with them (him) as their fixtures stiffen considerably. As well as the tough looking run above they also face Man United and Leicester in two of the following three. It’s possibly worth considering how they have fared previously against these seemingly tougher opponents and it doesn’t make for good reading! Of the aforementioned five teams they managed to get just one point out of them which was a draw against Chelsea and even that was during one of Chelsea’s bad spells (aka the 2015/16 season). They lost the other 4 and scored just 3 goals in doing so.
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Leicester – Liverpool (h), Man City (a), Arsenal (a)
Yes we know, they’re top and seemingly back to some semblance of form but there’s no denying that these next three are challenging. Their previous results against the three opponents above show two defeats and a 0-0 draw with just two goals scored and six conceded. It may be a good time to take a brief Leicester hiatus but if you do then please also note that after these three games they then play both Norwich and West Brom at home followed by Watford away.
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Fixture Fun
The game-week 24 DEADLINE is TUESDAY 2nd Feb 18.45pm GMT
There are no games this coming weekend due to the FA CUP but we resume next Tuesday for GW24 and then GW25 follows quickly on Saturday –
The game-week 25 DEADLINE is SATURDAY 6th Feb 11.45am GMT
The League Cup semi-finals conclude this midweek with Liverpool, Stoke, Everton and Man City all in action.
The weekend itself is taken up with FA Cup fixtures and a good majority of Premier League teams will be involved so as ever be sure to check on your players availability once all of this over. Any suspensions incurred will count toward the league.
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Morning all great article NIN & Init , season nearly over & I’m still struggling to obtain any sort of decent rank I either start going with differential Cap pick or I just stick it out , but I do like a risk cheers again lads 😉
Thanks for the Article!
2FT 1.1m
KDB – Payet
Lukaku – Costa
Any other moves?
Thanks
Rip, KDB to Payet would be enough for me unless you gaggingly want Costa.
Rip, there is a chance KdB and Lukaku could have a DGW in 25. So whatever you do, I least make sure you wait as late as possible this GW to make any transfers. We could find out as early as late tonight or as late as Sunday. When the teams in question finish their FA cup games.
Adebayor added to FPL at 5.8mln
Hey Cookie that’s interesting his he worth putting in place of Igh CRY have 5 good fixtures ????
Silvers, I wouldn’t rush that one Silvers, I’d want to see how fit and bothered he is first. If you’re looking for a like-for-like price wise alternative to Igloo, I’d be wanting Valencia I think.
yes Cookie Valencia is on my Radar but I already have Payet so not sure some tough fixtures for Watford coming up but I might just keep faith in Igh see how he goes against Che this wk they seem to have tightened up.
Great article NINit (like that, too!)- some excellent points. I am 8th in the ML I usually try to win, but relatively few of the folks above me have used many chips; no one has used the second WC either.
I tried another “analysis” — apologies for a longish post, but this may of use to some folks! — which was to list all the players appearing in the 7 teams above me, and then tallying to see which ones appeared most. The results, shown as the “template team” (i.e. the squad comprising the most selected players in the leading 7 teams of my league):
Butland (Gomes)
Alderweireld | Bellerin | Dann | Dier | misc. other defender
Oezil | Mahrez | Payet | two from Barkley/KDB/Wijnaldum
Ighalo | Kane | Lukaku
My team as it stands is shown below. The players I am lacking from the Leaders’ Template (i.e. *their* differentials over me) are Butland, Bellerin, Dann, Dier, Oezil, Barkley/KDB/Wijn, Ighalo and Kane. In other words, quite a few. Let’s look at these first.
Butland: good keeper. I am quite unhappy with my own options here right now. But burning a transfer on a keeper always feels wrong. And realistically, keeper choice will not determine who wins at the end of the season.
Bellerin: Arsenal have kept plenty CS and perhaps this is hurting me. However, their fixtures are not *that* good from a defensive standpoint and I am not sure their defenders’ attacking returns are standout enough to motivate me to chase Bellerin, Monreal, etc.
Dann: has scored well, but is ludicrously expensive for a Palace defender, and their form has dropped off. Losing no sleep over this one. But, fixtures are turning promising, so maybe this is one to monitor,
Dier: is covered by Alderweireld in my team and without Vertonghen Spurs might be a bit leaky at the back. And they don’t keep many CS anyway. Like Dann, I think Dier is a player who has gained too much value for people to be keen to drop.
Oezil: off the pace a little and I actually moved him along a couple of weeks back, with no ill effects. I have Ramsey as Arsenal cover for now, who might make way for Oezil or even Sanchez in the near future.
Barkley/KDB/Wijn: this is where it gets a little tricky- we are verging on differential territory as aside from Oezil and Mahrez, there isn’t really a template midfield above me. On one hand, I am not being too punished at everyone else’s expense. Also, a shrewd pick by myself in the transfer market could make me jump up the leagues!
Ighalo: had him for ages, let him go, is he back? Still remains to be seen but the fixtures are not good. He was on fire regardless of opposition earlier in the season, and given that his price is still low I am very tempted to ditch Vardy for him if things take a positive turn.
Kane: basically, I’d like him in, but Aguero has his space, at least while Lukaku is in decent form. Spurs attacking cover seems a priority though given that I don’t have any: and bearing in mind what I said about shrewd midfield picks, perhaps this is the week to finally jump on Alli, who only features (for now) in two of the teams ahead.
Long-winded analysis over, what have I learned? Looking at the Leaders’ Template, the players I wish I had are perhaps Arsenal defence to keep pace, and perhaps Spurs attack to go on the offensive. Looking at *my* differentials, I note that Moreno, Cresswell, Ramsey, Sterling, Vardy, and Aguero all feature in 1-2 of the teams above me only (except Aguero, who is in 3). All of these are decent players, with good fixtures and solid potential for attacking returns. The only transfers involving these players therefore should be for a *Notable Upgrade*, e.g. Ramsey > Sanchez, Sterling > KDB, Vardy > Kane, etc. However, this is likely to be unaffordable, so maybe the best thing is to sit tight on these players, and hope for a positive change in their scoring form.
So: decision time: I have 1 FT, and only 0.2m in the bank. Despite the great expanse of thinking laid out above, the way I see it is that holding my transfer(!!) might just be the best option. The punt would be to drop Mahrez for Alli, and hope that Liverpool keep Mahrez quiet and Alli bosses Norwich. This is not an unlikely scenario. But given that I lose a lot of cash on Mahrez and Leicester, despite tough fixtures, are gunning for Champions League places, maybe he is not the one to drop. Instead, maybe I ditch Sterling: he’s a differential but not getting the best game time, and Aguero gives me plenty of cover for the likely massacre of Sunderland. Whichever way I jump, at least this plan has shown me there are players in the team I shouldn’t lose just yet, because they offer potential that other teams above me do not have.
I realise few people may read this since it mostly applies to a league none of you are in! But I thought the method was interesting and that it might generate some chatter…
So what’s the question?…..
I kid Pip, I followed most of that. I think your analysis is sound if you’re looking to keep some differential space between you and the pack. I can see a case for holding on to Ramsey, but Sterling sticks out to me. Maybe Sterling > Alli is the way to go? And Kolarov out soon after.
Yep, Kolarov is definitely one to move along. A straight swap for one of the Arsenal defenders could work, though I’m actually mulling over Chelsea defence as a mad punt. We shall see!
I think Sterling might be the best one to move along. I’d rather have KDB or Silva, and aside from a hatrick on one occasion he’s generally disappointed me since Gw2-3, whenever I got him in.
Wowzers, thanks for the article Pippin! This is why I included that bit of strategy mumbling in the intro as I hoped it would make some people also take a look at theirs and spot some gaps or opportunities. Even if it doesn’t work out come the end at least you can say you tried. Sounds like yours is a different scenario to mine given the lack of chips that have gone and will probably be a harder job accordingly. At least you now have a picture of where you need to probably with it.
Haha, reading it back I’m not sure how useful it is! But certainly it’s shown me which areas of the team should stick and which should twist…
Great stuff Pippin: it doesn’t matter if the specifics are restricted to your league, this is a good method anyway for anyone chasing and in deed for those leading as a way to somewhat anticipate what their chasers could be doing. Of course, in situations where you are in 7th it may be too much, that is to say, you probably need to get a bit closer to let’s say the top 3 to then tackle all this and see where is your breakthrough towards those other 2 or 3 opponents. To try and do it against 6 may be frustrating given that all them will still be doing their own transfers every week and this changing the initial scenario. Bottom line being, keep on pushing them and they use all this to overcome them and win it!! Yeahhh!!
Hey Pippin, with posts like that we’ll have you writing articles in no time!!
Interesting stuff though isn’t it and well done to Uncle Init for prompting the thought process in the Fixtures intro.
Re Sterling I think you need to see how much game time he gets in the next 2 Cup matches before next week’s GW24. If you think he has a chance of starting vs Sunderland I would hold the transfer as he still represents somewhat of a differential and although I don’t particularly rate him he could do some damage vs Sunderland. After that I’d get rid.
Keep the transfer and assess next week. You’re team could easily get top score this week.
I don’t like your bench, Sterling or Vardy (but the latter 2 could score well this GW) – switch them about a bit when you have 2 FT next week.
*your
Stuck yet again, looking for suggestions.
Thinking of downgrading KDB to get Aguero for a-4. But then who goes, Lukaku or Kane? Or do I shoot for Kun/Kane/Lukaku and downgrade midfield big time? Or hold FT and roll the dice this week? Thoughts?
1ft, 0.4 itb
Cech, Butland
Toby, Cresswell, Dawson, Morgan, Nyom
Mahrez, Ozil, Payet, KDB, Stanislas
Lukaku, Kane, Ighalo.
Tough one that Colriles, my initial thoughts would be to lose Ighalo and keep the other two but I appreciate that’s not really workable unless you ditch some other biggies. Either way I’d work around getting Kun in regardless. Gun to head and with no other option I’d lose Lukaku rather than Kane.
Depending how much you’re chasing, and whether folks around you have Kun, I’d be tempted to gamble one more week without him as KDB will likely score well vs Sunderland. That said, you might need to cappo KDB to be sure of reaping the benefits and that might be a bridge too far.
If you do want Kun in, I would lose KDB to do it. He’s only worth keeping as an alternative in my view. And he’s realistically the only mid valuable enough to offset the cost. Can you drop him and Ighalo for Kun and a decent midfielder? Or Kane for Kun and Alli/Eriksen in?
Cheers guys. Too far back in ML to win it this year, just trying to make it respectable. So my thoughts are:
1- KDB > Alli, no hit; cash for Kun next week.
2- KDB > Alli and Lukaku > Kun for -4
3- KDB > Alli, Ozil > Winjaldum/Barkley and Ighalo > Kun for -8.
Leaning towards #2?
Definitely not the -8 mate! Wouldn’t be rushing for Wijn or Barkley myself…
Afternoon Everyone!! Great Article Init and NIN cheers for this lads.
Wasn’t going to make a transfer this week and just do KDB to Firmino next week after City have played Sunderland but after reading this article I’m starting to think about differential’s. I’m currently 45 points of first in my ML and 19 off third place. Do I start chasing with didfferntoal
Differential’s!! Haha this is my team
They’re not big margins really Matt. Depends on their teams and also what the chip situation is like?
Hey Init. That’s what I was thinking, the front 8 is pretty much the same bar one or two except for the leader who last week didn’t have any City players but the jammy git had Firmino
Can’t figure out where to see their chips played though?
Was just thinking also about getting in some West Ham coverage apart from the obvious Payet who else would be worth it? Byram now that Jenkinson is gone for the season??
Matt, go to their home page on FPL. Find the Points/Rankings box and just below there’s a link to View Gameweek History. Chip details are below their weekly scores and just above their previous seasons history.
Okay Cheers. It’s not as bad as I thought then as the leader only has his AOA and 2nd wildcard left where as 2nd is the same as me with their 2nd WC and Bench boost and triple captain but third only has their triple captain and 2nd WC left left.
Think I should be able to catch the leader fairly easily now with the probable DGW coming up only thing is it’ll be Liverpool with the DGW and loading up on them is slightly crazy LOL plus if it’s Everton then that won’t matter as much as it’s those two teams playing eachother the same weekend of the League Cup any way.
What do you think about the West ham question?
Certainly given 3 of the next say 4 games I don’t think that’s a bad move at all.
Matt be aware that Tomkins may be fit and so Byram may not necessarily feature – I guess the line up in the Cup at the weekend may give some idea.
Cheers Init I’ll have a think of who to get out probably Souare.
And Cook I’ll keep my eye on that too but would you say the lineup at the weekend will be the lineup Bilic will continue with or will he look at rotating players this weekend??
Matt I would think he will try and rotate where he can for the Cup matches
Ye that’s what I assumed so would you think if Byram plays he won’t be playing in PL or the other way around?
It all depends on Tomkins fitness Matt. If Bilic says he is fine and Byram plays at the weekend I would expect Tomkims to play on Tuesday.
But this is just my interpretation mate, I could be way wrong!
Right Cheers Cook I’ll keep an ear out and see what is said and them make my decision after the game on Saturday
You could just get Reid for 4.8mln
Yeah Reid is an option just thought Byram would be more attacking but I suppose Reid does get forward a good bit.
Here you go Matt
Ah Cook you’re a saint mate
looks like Tomkins is back so Reid it is but I’ll keep my eye on Byram anyway to see how his situation develops