Fantasy Football Fixtures Game-week 24
Let’s talk strategy! We are talking ML strategy. And by ML we mean mini-league strategy. And by mini-league we mean that one you are in with your mates at work or maybe even just your weekly football game, the one that you talk about, the one that probably means the most to you. The one you want to win, for kudos sake, if nothing else. Well, we want to help you win it. There are just 15 game-weeks left now and so we feel it is time to start concentrating on what is important to you rather than the overall position. Ideally, overall position and ML glory go hand in hand but in reality that is only if your overall rank is such that the opposition cannot touch you. Let’s cut straight to the chase here – if you are in the lead then just carry on doing what you are doing as that is most likely working and why you are doing so well. Basically, let them chase, look for differentials, and probably fail in doing so! But what if you are the Benny Hill in the given scenario?
Well, then that’s different. And difficult. But certainly not an impossible lost cause. The obvious temptation is to simply go differential but that’s not necessarily the right answer. The answer probably lies in doing some planning, preparation and research. Planning and preparation are what this article is based upon, planning ahead given the fixtures and factoring in form. The research bit we cannot teach but we can at least preach….
By research we mean looking at your opponents team/s, analysing their squads in relation to yours, looking at their chips and whether they have used them and using this information to your gain if possible. As a real life example we analysed a ML last week, one that is important to us and one that we win every year. One that we are currently sat in 6th place in. We analysed the top 5 teams and found that the majority of them had already burned their Bench Boost, Triple Captain and second wildcard. We concluded that this may be why we were sat in 6th! The interesting thing was that the bloke in 5th was concurrent with us in terms of points and general chip usage, or rather lack of.
Very interesting. And maybe crucial. In this new world of chips it’s difficult to tell how you are doing in relation to others until you analyse it closely. Our conclusion here was to actually just concentrate on that bloke in 5th as we feel that once the chips have come into play, unless anyone else has an amazing run of captains or something else, that we along with 5th place will be competing at the top come the final few weeks. We adjusted the team accordingly this week and rather than just blindly buying a differential we noticed he had Alli and fancied he may get a jump on us if we didn’t cover it. And so it proved.
This is all apropos of nothing really but we just thought we would share some strategy thoughts with you on a quiet week! Anyway, enough waffling and onto the main feature. Fixtures ahead, good and bad…
The Tracker…
We have rated each teams fixtures on a sliding scale. Remember that this is just our opinion and you may feel differently but if nothing else it gives you a nice easy visual aid as to each teams upcoming games…
We do have a comprehensive library of other useful trackers including the all singing, all dancing interactive one from Calvin Clyne and you can find them all here – Fixture Trackers
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FAVOURABLE FIXTURES
Tottenham – Norwich (A), Watford (H), Manchester City (A)
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Another week another stroll for Spurs. Sitting top of the form table again this week, with just the one defeat from the last six, Spurs extended their lead over fifth placed Manchester United to five points last weekend by putting Palace to the sword. A very productive cameo from one of last seasons budget midfielders, Nacer Chadli, bagging a goal and assist, Harry Kane’s solitary strike and a wonder goal from Dele Alli was more than enough to defeat out of form Palace and cement Spurs’ place in the top four. Pochettino will be delighted with how this season is panning out, especially as long as the forever wobbly United are the next best, position wise, that the league can offer. Looking ahead there are still plenty of excellent games for Spurs as well as some key, and more difficult encounters too. Our three featured games mix in a bit of both so lets get on to the games themselves and see what lies ahead…
Not a bad start. Despite remaining on their travels for Game-week twenty-four Kane and co will again be up against weaker opposition and we wouldn’t be at all surprised to see a similar scoreline to last weeks result against Crystal Palace. Norwich is the destination and if last week is anything to go by then the visit of Spurs, in particular young Alli, who has posted scores of 9, 12, 1, 8 and 13 from the last five away days, looks a juicy FPL prospect. Back to White Hart Lane next and tricky Watford are the visitors for what should be a good game but one we’d favour the home side in for sure. Pochettino’s men have been letting it slip at the back in recent weeks with no clean-sheets in five and they will have to remedy that against Watford or risk being run ragged by Ighalo and Deeney. If Watford are a team to be wary of, then our last featured fixture for Spurs is the ultimate team to be wary of. Back on the road for this one, it’s the daunting trip to the Etihad for a tussle with Manchester City, who are now equipped with a fully functional, fully charged Sergio Aguero. City have had lots of fun with Spurs in recent years but this time around things might not be so one sided. City took a 4-1 spanking earlier in the season and their defence still isn’t water tight so although this is one of the harder games of the season, a team in Spurs’s form, or at least the attackers, remain good prospects for this game.
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Arsenal – Southampton (h), Bournemouth (a), Leicester (h)
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Bottle? January? Blame it on whatever you like but it’s certainly consistent. A disappointing home loss to Chelsea only served to fan the flames of what is becoming a running joke now. Every year they trip themselves up at this stage. That loss sees them without a league win since GW20 and just 2 points from 9 means they have now slipped down to 3rd. Playing with 10 men for the majority against Chelsea clearly didn’t help but they need to arrest this slide before it becomes a slump.
They’ve had mixed fortunes against their upcoming opponents in the reverse fixtures earlier in the season, beating two of them and getting hammered by the other! The good news is there were 13 goals in the 3 games, 7 of them coming from the Gunners. First up is Southampton to whom they inexplicably lost 0-4 to just a few weeks ago. The Saints are on a good run now too so this will be a test for sure. Next it’s Bournemouth and you cannot have serious title aspirations if you don’t win games like these. The third is a fascinating one and could either put Arsenal right back in the mix or indeed catapult Leicester to within reach of the unthinkable.
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West Ham – Aston Villa (h), Southampton (a), Norwich (a)
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The Hammers are a bit of an FPL oddity. Despite sitting 6th in the league and having notched a very decent 36 goals you have to go all the way down to 27th place in the FPL points standings to find their top ranked player and even he (Payet) missed seven games on the bounce between GW’s 13 and 19 which says it all about the others really. Had Payet played all 23 games and maintained his points per game ratio he would be sat on 129 points and up there with the big boys so he really is worth your consideration if you haven’t already done so. Aaron Cresswell is his nearest contender on 84 points and may be worth a shout but as we say he’s actually played 6 games more.
West Ham have a good run coming up now and it begins in GW24 with a Villa side who have shown signs of life in the last few weeks but who have still managed to ship 24 goals on the road with just one win and eight defeats away from home. Next is a trip to Southampton which will be trickier but the Hammers have already put one over on them earlier on in the season with a 2-1 win. The third is again an away trip, this time to Norwich who have now lost their last 4 games in all competitions, conceding 14 in the process. It’s possibly also worth noting that after this little lot they have another potentially favourable game with a home tie against Sunderland.
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Liverpool – Leicester (A), Sunderland (H), Aston Villa (A)
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There’s just no predicting what this Liverpool team will get themselves into in any given minute, let alone entire game! The monotonous farce that was the Liverpool of a few months back is now one that is beginning to show the lunacy of it’s manager! Who else could get into a nine-goal thriller with Norwich? Not even the wide open Leicester of early season could achieve such a crazy scoreline. Anyone who had defensive cover in this game did awfully for the most part but it did however shine a bit of light on the attacking side of things, especially for Liverpool. Either side of the one-nil defeat to United there have been high scoring affairs with a 3-3 against Arsenal and of course last week’s madness. Eight goals scored then and one Roberto Firmino has bagged four of them and chipped in with an assist, as well as five bonus points. If he can remain fit then these next three games provide us with good potential for FPL points – anyone for a punt? Lets have a peak first…
A team well accustomed to high scoring affairs this season, although most of the time they have been favourable, Leicester City amazingly remain top of the pile in England after twenty-three gruelling weeks. Three clear of Manchester City the Foxes will be dreaming of the impossible but they have a game on their hands this weekend. Liverpool will, in typical Klopp fashion, come to win and if they can get the first goal, and early, then this one could turn into another feast of attacking hauls to munch on. Wonderful fixture next, one that has hammering written all over it. Most fixtures involving Sunderland tend to have hammering written all over them though! We wont go too deep here as well know the story with this lot. They’re there for the taking and anything close to top form should be more than enough to put three or four past them. Maybe more. We started with the current league leaders, and we finish with bottom placed Aston Villa, a team who for all their popularity down the years look doomed. Although unbeaten in three, Villa are not looking like pulling out of this slump any time soon and we cant give them a sniff against Liverpool, or any team who isn’t in or around the bottom three. Even some of them teams should have little worry with Villa! There we have it, three good games with plenty of attacking potential for Liverpool. Punt away!
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BE WARY OF…
Newcastle – Everton (A), West Brom (H), Chelsea (A)
Not good times for Newcastle fans. Stuck in the bottom three in both the league table and the form table, Steve McClaren must be wondering if there is anything he can do turn this season around, or whether it’s just a matter of time before the inevitable chop arrives. Just one win from six, including five defeats, says everything about where they are at the minute and the fixtures ahead do not look promising. Game-week 23 villains, Everton, are first up and despite their own frailties recently, they should be dismantling Newcastle with ease. Next we’ve got West Brom travelling to St James’ and they will be aiming for the win for sure, but would probably settle for a horrid 0-0. An away day at Stamford Bridge completes a difficult trio of games for Newcastle – Chelsea are unbeaten in their last six and although far from being back to their best, there’s already enough there to brush Newcastle aside. Easy picking for the home side.
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Sunderland – Manchester City (H), Liverpool (A), Manchester United (H)
From bad to worse! One of only two teams below Newcastle in the league, neighbouring Sunderland have it really tough in the next few weeks. Seriously, really tough! This weekend sees the visit of City for what could be an all out thrashing. Many FPL Managers will be choosing their Game-week twenty-four Captains from this game, and rightfully so. Next it’s the trip to Anfield that we covered previously so we’ll skim over that one and look at the last featured game, a home tie with Manchester United. Okay, so United aren’t fooling anyone anymore. The fear factor is gone and teams have been turning up expecting to get a result for some time now, but Sunderland are not a team that even United should be fearful of. Anything other than a win for the away side would be a major surprise.
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Norwich – Tottenham (H), Aston Villa (A), West Ham (H)
Three league defeats on the spin and eleven conceded in that time – it hasn’t been a good year so far for Norwich. Just a couple of points above the drop-zone, Alex Neil will be well aware of the now desperate need for points on the board but looking ahead, a couple of really tough games lie either side of a relegation six-pointer so the pressure is on. Spurs will have no fear this weekend and in truth could put this one to bed early if they start fast. A clash with bottom side Villa is next and this is a must win game. For both teams. We should be favouring Norwich in this one but after seeing how bad things have been for them recently, a tepid draw sounds a bit more likely. Home comforts may not be much of an advantage for our last featured fixture as West Ham are the ones to pop round for some points this time. A few more games under Dimitri Payet’s belt wont do him any harm and we fully expect him and West Ham to be dealing with Norwich handily enough.
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Watford – Chelsea (h), Spurs (a), Crystal Palace (a)
Keeping your Watford assets (Ighalo) proved to be a wise move last week as they (he) did the business against Newcastle but many will now be in a quandary as to what to do with them (him) as their fixtures stiffen considerably. As well as the tough looking run above they also face Man United and Leicester in two of the following three. It’s possibly worth considering how they have fared previously against these seemingly tougher opponents and it doesn’t make for good reading! Of the aforementioned five teams they managed to get just one point out of them which was a draw against Chelsea and even that was during one of Chelsea’s bad spells (aka the 2015/16 season). They lost the other 4 and scored just 3 goals in doing so.
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Leicester – Liverpool (h), Man City (a), Arsenal (a)
Yes we know, they’re top and seemingly back to some semblance of form but there’s no denying that these next three are challenging. Their previous results against the three opponents above show two defeats and a 0-0 draw with just two goals scored and six conceded. It may be a good time to take a brief Leicester hiatus but if you do then please also note that after these three games they then play both Norwich and West Brom at home followed by Watford away.
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Fixture Fun
The game-week 24 DEADLINE is TUESDAY 2nd Feb 18.45pm GMT
There are no games this coming weekend due to the FA CUP but we resume next Tuesday for GW24 and then GW25 follows quickly on Saturday –
The game-week 25 DEADLINE is SATURDAY 6th Feb 11.45am GMT
The League Cup semi-finals conclude this midweek with Liverpool, Stoke, Everton and Man City all in action.
The weekend itself is taken up with FA Cup fixtures and a good majority of Premier League teams will be involved so as ever be sure to check on your players availability once all of this over. Any suspensions incurred will count toward the league.
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Are there any ‘holds’ on how fast DeBruyne’s value can change? Curious, forgot.
No Ki, none. He can drop freely until he returns which judging by the sight of that may be next season! If he does return then it’s held for 8 days from once the flag is removed.
Max 0.3 price change per week. If he’s red flagged the price is frozen
Thanks very much to you both for the quick responses. This gives me the latitude to watch. I’d really like to hold my 2fts as long as I can.
Are prices definitely frozen from dropping with a red flag? For some reason I was thinking prices were only locked for a week or so after a red flag is removed. Anyone know for sure on that??
I was pretty certain in what I said which agreed with you also Red but SAF’s says different so maybe it’s changed? SAF’s?
I’m pretty sure I remember being pissed off when I’ve had players drop who were on red flags, but I’m not 100% on it. It would be good to know for sure as that could make all the difference for someone if money is real tight.
Red, prices aren’t frozen when they are red flagged mate. They can still drop it just takes more transfers out to make them drop due to the transfers out threshold increaseing by 2.5 times.
So basically depending on ownership say KDB would take 40.000 transfers out to drop by 0.1, it would now take 100.000 to drop by 0.1.
The price freeze is right what Innit is saying, when the red flag is removed the price is frozen for 8 days…
That’s the one, thanks Bongo!
Ahhh, thanks Bongo. What you said makes perfect sense as KdB just changed from 99.7 to 84 to drop. So they must have recalculated things from his injury and set him at 84 now. Thanks for clarifying that for us!
No worrys . Yeah it seems FFF jumped the gun a tad with things there, nothing will change in terms of thresholds until he is officially ruled out and red flagged by the fpl site. He is currently only yellow flagged until they examine him tomorrow so expect him to drop tonight now.
Evening all, with this front 8, would you bring in Sanchez for Ozil or Silva ? And yes i know 1 needs to become a cheapo to stop the benching headache.
Ozil, Silva, Payet, Mahrez, Alli.
Kane, Kun, Lukaku.
Depends mate! Do you want to double up with Arsenal coverage in midfield? If not then Ozil is the obvious choice if you don’t mind then Silva.
Is it best to sell KDB tonight or will his price be okay until hopefully hearing something tomorrow??
Just seen on FFF that Lukaku and KDB are set to fall in price tonight and that was before this injury to KDB.
FPL stats has him at 99.7 to drop Matt. According to them he only needs to be transferred out by 79 more people to drop. So unless a bunch of wildcards got played this week which are messing with the numbers, he’ll probably drop tonight.
Cheers Red. Is it worth selling him tonight then??
I have him too Matt and will likely sell him. But the big risk for me is not in losing a little money by waiting, the big risk is getting someone else in early and having them get injured in the Cup matches this weekend. Then you’re back in the same boat with an injured premium player and you’ve wasted a transfer, all to save a little money. The only way I’d chance it is if I just barely had enough money to make the move and couldn’t do it otherwise.
Yeah true. Like I was going to hold off my transfer this week and let KDB play against Sunderland and then sell him for Firmino but now I’ll have to do that before hand.
Matt, if you’re still about they’ve changed KbD’s status on FPL stats down to 83 now. Doesn’t look like he’s in danger of dropping tonight unless people go absolutely mental selling him in the next few hours.
Ah right Cheers Red and is FPL stats more reliable than FFF as they have Jim at 97%
FFF tends to change on the hour so worth checking back in 5/10 minutes.
FPL Stats now has him at -91.6
Bouncing all over on both sites. I’m taking him out for Payet. The only thing that would change my mind is Payet getting injured so might as well get it out the way.
I think FPL stats is the most accurate Matt, way more so that FFF. The one good thing about FFF though is they show you which players are being transferred in/out the most, which is kind of cool to see exactly who the most popular players bought and sold are.
De Bruyne now at -64%, he was at -93% earlier. Anyone know how that works?
Should I hold off on ditching him?
Now back to -92% on FFF.
I’m ditching him tonight
Because thousands of people just saw the injury and jumped on and sold him mate, with no further information and 6 days until the deadline. Madness I know but there you go.
-0.5% per hour trend. I think it’s just getting a bit confused.
It’s good news, means not much bringing him in. You should wait tomorrow on more information about his injury and his recovery
De Bruyne to Payet was definitely going to be my transfer if City got through. This has sealed it for me.
I was going to do it Saturday but I fell asleep watching match of the day.
KDB
From Ben Dinnery: Pellegrini on KdB: “It is not a nice injury.”
Sounds like this may be a serious one. I feel bad for the guy, he’s a great player.
I’d be very surprised if that’s not a cruciate. His knee went fully under him with a slight twist in movement on the way down. It was a bit like Owen’s when he did his.
If it’s a season ending injury I feel bad for him. Was having a great season and this coming from a Man Utd fan