FPL Fixtures Analysis Gameweek 12 2016-17
Welcome to FPL Fixtures Analysis Gameweek 12 2016-17. It’s always a bit of a tough ask to write an FPL article when the international games are still taking place. Will a key injury happen (Eden Hazard) and ruin a team’s chances for the next round? Will South American players be given a bit of rest after their lengthy travel back to the UK? And will teams just not practicing together disrupt any rhythm they had prior to the break? It’s all very speculative. So just to be safe, I’ll go ahead and say that I will only accept responsibility for this article if all of my picks go off as projected. If some of these teams come back playing a reduced squad and blow it, I’m telling you now that it’s not my fault.
But I’m getting ahead of myself here, everything is probably going to work out just fine. I mean, in the grand scheme of everything that’s happened in this world over the last week or so, is a busted advice article really going to be the worst thing? Only one way to find out, I guess.
The Tracker in full…
Top 3 Best Bets
#1) Liverpool – SOU (A), SUN (H), BOU (A)
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Again, let me apologise for all of the Liverpool coverage here in this article over the last several weeks. But I mean, c’mon, just look at that schedule that they have. How can I leave them off? It’s like some cruel, cosmic joke that the year that I get tapped to take over a weekly article here, Liverpool would have to be so dominant. I’m sure that this is payback for some awful thing I did in my past.
But here again, let’s list the merits of Liverpool – because they do, absolutely, deserve to be listed in the top spot this week.
It isn’t so much that Liverpool are now the sole holders of first place that should turn your head their way (though their 26 points are impressive), rather they deserve so much praise because they really have unleashed a videogame offence into the footballing world – and it’s paying off huge for them. When you look at the level of performance that they put in last game, it’s really no wonder that they’re the highest scoring offence in the land (their 30 goals on the year doubles the league average of 15.3 goals scored per team).
And when you look at their opponents coming up, you can’t think for one minute that any of these teams have anything in place to slow this offence down. Southampton were good early in the year…but they just lost to Hull (you probably heard people screaming out with all of the accumulators that died that day). Sunderland just won their first match of the year, but they’re still Sunderland, and they still have David Moyes in charge. And Bournemouth? They’re the team that lost to Sunderland, so I’m not worried about them finding a new gear to stop Liverpool.
#2) Tottenham – WHU (H), CHE (A), SWA (H)
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This is a tough call for the second spot this week, as it’s hard to make an argument for any team travelling to Chelsea as part of their schedule. But I like the upside of Tottenham having two home games against West Ham and Swansea. In no way do I think that Tottenham get 9 points from this run, but I think 6 points are in the bag, and 7 points are possible if they play to the best of their ability.
The Spurs have been on a rough string of low-scoring draws lately, but that all kind of started when Harry Kane was out. Now that Kane is back, it’s a whole different story. In his return last week, he snagged a goal and helped Tottenham keep an away point against Arsenal. I think with a couple of very decent home outings, he should be back to producing at his proper level again. And this is all speculation, of course. But he’s scored a goal in 3 of the 6 games he’s played this year, and his reintroduction into the squad makes this team one to watch.
I think that Spurs count themselves lucky to keep the Chelsea game to 1-1 or 2-2, but against the other two teams here, I don’t see much of a problem at all. West Ham are a -8 in goal differential on the road this year, and the only game they’ve won while away was against Crystal Palace. And Swansea are only marginally better on the road (at least statistically) with their -4 goal differential. And Swansea’s only win on the road came in Round 1 against Burnley, so probably not too much to worry about there for those investing in Tottenham.
#3) Manchester City – CRY (A), BUR (A), CHE (H)
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Ok, it’s Man City again in the Top 3, what else is new? But why did I decide to put them below Tottenham? Both teams play Chelsea and both have matches with otherwise lesser competition. But City have two away games whilst Tottenham just have the one. That’s really the only deciding factor.
And it’s not like playing away is some kind of obstacle for City, they’re a +8 while playing away, and they’ve only lost one match on the road. In fact, they’ve actually been better on the road lately. Their last three home matches have all been 1-1 draws, so maybe a little time away from the home faithful is just what they need to get centered again.
Looking at their opponents: Crystal Palace haven’t had a win since September, and they shouldn’t be looking at City as a means to turn that trend around. Burnley have actually been decent and find themselves in the top half, but against City’s attack I don’t expect Heaton can hold off every shot that’s going to come his way. And by the time City gets to Chelsea, that game will probably be decided by which team is healthier on the day – so there are a possible 9 points for City here.
3 Teams to Avoid
#1) West Ham – TOT (A), MUN (A), ARS (H)
I think that schedule is pretty self-explanatory. It’s not pretty. The only bright spot on the schedule might be in hoping that Jose Mourinho doing what Jose Mourinho does – he can gift away a game with the best of them. But aside from some fluke? It’s not looking good for West Ham loyalists right now. And with the calibre of defences that Tottenham and Arsenal have, it might not even be safe to keep around Payet for this stretch.
#2) Bournemouth – STK (A), ARS (A), LIV (H)
Bournemouth really have to be kicking themselves right now for dropping points against Sunderland last round. You have to wonder whether those three lost points will cost them dearly at season’s end. Bournemouth are just 2 points clear of relegation right now, and this stretch of schedule might see them stalled out on the same 12 points that they currently have for some time to come. Could a case be made for them to sneak in a draw here somewhere? I don’t see it. The most owned player from Bournemouth is their defender Adam Smith – but he’s suspended until the Arsenal game. So you have an extra week to start to offload him and/or Boruc before they start to become a major liability for you in the back – because the teams they are going up against are going to score in bunches.
#3) Swansea – EVE (A), CRY (H), TOT (A)
This third spot could’ve been filled with Burnley, Middlesbrough or even Southampton. But I went with Swansea because they have a couple of difficult road fixtures to play, and they’re the team that’s most recently in transition with new coaching. And Swansea are also in 19th place and are only above Sunderland because of goal differential. So yeah, they win the race to be a team to avoid. There are a couple of individual bright spots in the squad, but collectively this team isn’t built to even overcome what looks to be only a moderately difficult schedule.
One Week Punt – Chelsea vs MID (A)
Ok, this is kind of a joke, because obviously Chelsea aren’t a one week punt. But there hasn’t been much occasion to write about them here to this point, yet they are probably the best team in a one-week scenario this round (it’s a toss up between Chelsea vs Middlesbrough and Everton vs Swansea).
The problem with Chelsea (for the purposes of this article) is that they consistently outperform expectations when presented with a tough schedule. Having Liverpool as the top pick is easy because they’re in great form against an easy schedule. It’s a no brainer. But Chelsea are in equally fine form, but they have Tottenham and Man City in their next 3 matches.
Could Chelsea pull 9 points from this run? Absolutely they could, and nobody would be surprised. But with a Fixtures article, as opposed to a tips article, I can’t recommend Chelsea as a great buy when presented with a tough schedule. That being said, they are a great play this week against Middlesbrough, and as long as Hazard isn’t as hurt as we initially feared, they’ll breeze through this game.
Thanks for reading FPL Fixtures Analysis Gameweek 12 2016-17. This article was written by Guy Sanchez
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Great read here Guy!! Agree with everything you say here especially the Liverpool part, maybe your awful past is supporting the wrong team in Liverpool 😉 haha
I’ll give this another go. What do you guys think of this WC team? Don’t know what to do with the left over 1.2 mil
I really like it mate. Perhaps use a bit of that left over money to upgrade Amat so that you’ve got five starting defenders? Either that or upgrade Grant to a keeper who rotates well with Heaton?
Cheers Swirly. What do you think of splitting the funds to do Amat to Mee and Grant to Foster??
No, Grant to Pickford. Use the other case to lose Amat.
You really want 3 scouse mids?
I’d probably pick a defender from another team than Burnley, simply because you’ve got Heaton already. How about a West Brom defender?
With a backline of Alonso, Morgan, Vert, Mee and Heaton and Pickford that leaves me with 4.4 to replace Amat so only option I can see is Britos. Anyone I’m missing?
Also I don’t really know what other midfielder to get plus the way Liverpool are scoring by having 3 mids it narrows down the chance of missing out on points.
Swirly only WBA player I could afford is Evans, worth it over Mee??
If you’re keeping Heaton and don’t want to double up on Burnley, I’d pick Evans, yeah.
Cheers Swirly and everyone else
Matt, i’d get a Spurs defender instead of Jenkinson, who is only short term and shite.
I was thinking that Jenkinson to Vert and swap Grant to Valdes??
Damn Cookie, you giving shite a bad name. #roughstuff
First of all, that’s a great wc team. A couple of minor switches either way like these guys said below could work, but I love having the 3 mids from Liverpool in there.
As for what I’ve done in the past? Those are some great stories. But this probably isn’t the right forum to bring up those mistakes haha.
Haha Cheers Guy, I think the front 7 is sorted its the backline that needs tweaks but think I have it narrowed down now.
You must be one of the reasons Trump wants to get rid of all the Mexicans 😉
Probably. But they’ll have to carry me out, and I’m no featherweight. They’ll earn their pay that day.
Haha
and knowing the way Trump thinks he’ll probably hire immigrants to get rid of the Mexicans because he’ll think it’s cheaper #trump logic
Can you not do something with Amat? Like at least buy a starter?
I think Britos is the only starter I can afford so it looks like he will come in for Amat.
That’s fine. At least he starts. No point WC’ing and painting yourself in an inevitable corner.
Yeah that’s true!!
If you have 4.4 you could consider Chambers who started last 5 games for Boro (except Arsenal). Looking at stats he didn`t offer any threat going forward though. Boro looked very solid in last 3 games.
That is if you didn`t decide to go for Valdes as it would make not much sense to double on Boro defense. Valdes rotates nicely with Heaton.
I think one of those 2 will be my transfer for week 13 if nothing crazy (Hazard, cough, cough) happens in the meantime.
I will think about you in case Mane scores a hatty 😉
Great team, especially after the suggested improvements!
Great article, Guy! A really good read, mate.
Many thanks Guy – very much enjoyed reading that whilst munching through my curry.
You can’t kill those in the woods, slightly disappointed in you
Thought we’d agreed #feral
Old habits…..found a nice gaff full of happy couples quaffing wine and eating cheese – I wasn’t going to fit in there!
Where the hell are you going? I thought you were coming back here. Beaune is East isn’t it?
Beaune is central – just south of Dijon, north of Lyon. I’m driving back down south, flew over to UK this morning.
It’s East mate!
That’s East of centre. ‘France’ on there is centre. This harks back to our Calais debate
Calais debate?
Do tell.
I insisted it was on the west of the northern point. I may have have been wrong
It depends what angle you take the map at though to be fair.
Fun fact, I’ve never actually had a curry dish. I’ve smelled lots of curry since moving to a bigger city, but I’ve always been too afraid to try.
Guy, get involved mate, its just up your alley. So to speak.
All of the urban legends I’ve heard pretty much say that the first few times you have it, you’ll have a super clean alleyway as a result. That tends to scare me.
There’s vastly varying degrees Guy. Start with a Korma and work your way up. I’m a sucker for the Vindaloo sweats now. I wouldn’t recommend pitching straight in at that level though!
See? So there is something to that. I’ll have to give it a go one of these days. It smells so good, but I’ve made it a life goal to not crap my pants. Maybe I’ll order some over my upcoming 4 day weekend.
Please do try it, you won’t look back. Well, maybe a bit, the day after.
Hahaha I’m sure you’ve had hotter stuff than most currys Guy. Get ordering!
Good God man! Never?
I was going to comment on the article but this is HUGE.
A world with no curry is a world I don’t want to be part of.
Amen
Yeah. The barely allowed Mexicans in my home state of Montana. Indian people, though? Like actual Indians from India? Unheard of. I probably didn’t know what curry smelled like until I was already in my 20’s.
Reading through this has convinced me to order a madras tonight. Thanks guys, food and fantasy football help
Being an Indian, it’s good to see the love for curries. You can try a Naan along with it. It’s like the Indian Tortilla made of Flour.
Great read Guy. Really happy about an Evertonian liking Liverpool, because i can assure you non of us Liverpool supporters would ever like Everton.
I like Liverpool as a club. I was made up when you did the Istanbul thing. I love Klopp and I like any team who plays good and exciting football. I’m in the minority I know and most of our fans would spit on me for the comment but then that’s fine, says more about them than me.
Likewise, I recognize good football. It chaps my arse to no end that they seemed to figure their team out before Everton did, but with enough cash coming in now, we’ll catch up. I never said I was happy about how good Liverpool are doing, but I’m not going to be some obtuse homer about it either. They’re probably playing the best football in the league right now, and to say otherwise is just bad form.
True story – I pulled up at work today and a lad got out next to me and said “I didn’t know you were a bitter blue”. He’d noticed the Baby Blue on Board thing in the back window. I literally had to bite my tongue and laugh it off. Can’t stand that rival mentality but that’s probably because I’ve grown up within a family literally mixed between the two and it was always good natured with no animosity either way.
I hate United and Arsenal and don’t really know why, but I grew up in a family where I use to bet money against my dad by using a friend to place the bet. I really, really hated the team he liked.
I am just hateful.
Guy, thanks a lot mate, reads really well as per. You’ve demonstrated a lot of restraint by keeping Everton out of the one-week punt section! Whilst secretly hoping that your disclaimers are required…
Ah you caught me. Still, being purely based on Fixtures, it’s kind of an oddity that I haven’t really been able to talk about Chelsea in this series yet. So I gave them some love. I wanted to go Everton on the rebound against Swansea, but Chelsea are so good right now.
I can easily see a Lukaku brace this week. If I had him I’d probably captain him. Slightly apprehensive not having him as many a ML rival do.
Guy,
Tremendous article mate to get the juices flowing for the return of FPL. I’m glad this was only a single matchday in qualifying. I don’t even want to look at Scotland until March, and even then I will need to be persuaded
Thanks for the write-up mate, really enjoyed it and if you are a football fan who calls a spade a spade even if it is about your supposed rivals, then you will do for me. Can’t stand rivalry that is manufactured and impressed upon some.
Besides Liverpool v Everton isn’t a proper derby anyway….
* looks for tin hat*
I’m not sure there’s 2 grounds closer in proximity in the country are there? There may be but I can’t immediately think of any. Especially none that were once one club originally.
Init,
There are actually. There are two in Scotland (both professional clubs) whose stadiums are on the same street.
I’ll leave that with you.
‘THE country’ I said. I’ll leave that one with you… :hippo:
Wish we had gotten bloody independence now :winktongue:
Technically you’re still a separate country! You’re not a county of…
Yep, you stopped at just the right time there!
Scotlandshire
:finger:
Moving on, did you know the answer to that football ground question btw?
No mate. Dundee maybe?
Quite correct Init :thumbup:
Forest & Notts County must be closer than Everton and Liverpool?
Yeah. It’s funny, I didn’t even take up against Liverpool because of the media-imposed rivalry. I just remember really getting into the Derby matches early on in my viewing days and just seeing passion in a few of those games. A lot of the rivalry stuff is now manufactured, but some of it is legit. Either way, Liverpool are leaps and bounds better off than Everton right now, and I just have to accept that fact and hope that we start to match them stride for stride in the transfers market. Fingers crossed.
It’s not been so much manufactured as being genuine recently Guy. Unfortunately. I don’t know why or what changed. With my job I tend to get a lot of corporate tickets and as such end up in ‘the wrong end’, albeit in the ‘posh seats’, but even in there I’ve seen the bad side of it recently. Proper animosity. Pretty sad really. I tend to just say I support Man Utd to confuse issues further