FPL Fixtures Analysis Gameweek 15
Welcome to FPL Fixtures Analysis Gameweek 15. We’re coming into a bit of a log jam for fixtures here in the next three rounds. GW15 will start this coming weekend, but GW16 will then take place midweek with GW17 starting the weekend after. For active players, this is always a good time to shoot above some of those managers who only check in on their teams on Fridays. Without a doubt, there will be managers who completely forget to check their teams for midweek adjustments. So when you see the three matchups listed for each of my selections this round, know that you’re really looking at one full weeks worth of fixtures.
Because of this, there won’t be a typical fixtures article going into GW16, but I’ll still have some tips for you for GW16 in lieu of fixtures analysis next Monday. It’s a busy time for FPL players, but what else are you going to do? Plan for the holidays? Shop for presents for your loved ones? Attend a stupid Ugly Sweater party? C’mon, we have bigger things to worry about. Here are this week’s best and worst teams based on their fixtures:
The Tracker in full…
Top 3 Best Bets
#1) Chelsea – WBA (H), SUN (A), CRY (A)
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It’s almost not even fair, is it? When the schedule begins to get truly congested, the first place team in the league gets these three opponents. Now I don’t know if you’ve ever seen “The League” before, but I call ‘Collusion’! Let’s be fair though, I think Chelsea have just confirmed with their 3-1 away win against City that it doesn’t really matter who or where they play, they’re getting wins one way or another. The fact that a team in such fine form gets to play against these three clubs is just icing on the cake.
West Brom are probably the only team here that even have a puncher’s chance at getting a result against Chelsea – and even they’re not going to get any kind of real shot to pull something off on the road. WBA have already played against two of the Top 4 teams in the table this year, and they lost both of those matches (0-4 against City, 1-2 against Liverpool). So even though people are falling over themselves to add Brunt and Phillips from WBA, the truth is that they’re really good at beating other teams on their level – but they’ve yet to turn in anything convincing against a club of real quality. And what can we say about Sunderland and Palace? Both teams pulled off surprising wins at home this past weekend, but they’ve conceded 24 and 26 goals on the year, respectively. It’s not a stretch to think that a Chelsea team that owns the best goal differential in the league (+21) is going to be able to shut those teams down and find ways to score in bunches themselves.
#2) Tottenham – MUN (A), HUL (H), BUR (H)
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So far we’re doing back to back picks from last week’s article – but since those picks worked out so great last week, can you really blame me? The truth is that Tottenham, like Chelsea, still deserve this spot in the list of Best Buys because they continue to improve each and every week now that Kane is fully reintegrated into the lineup. Tottenham have had the best defence (statistically speaking) all year, and now that they have an offence that can put up good numbers again, there’s no reason to doubt this team if you plan on making a few long-term purchases for your fantasy squad.
The away trip to United might give some owners a bit of pause because you simply don’t know what you’re going to get out of them on a week to week basis. On paper, Man U have the ability to hang 3-4 goals on any team they face. But in practice, they’re a hot mess. In such a case as this, I’d just default to Tottenham’s defence (only 10 GA on the year) being able to handle most of what United are able to throw at them. Only once this year have the Spurs allowed more than a single goal while on the road – and that was in a 2-1 loss against Chelsea. So all things being equal, Spurs aren’t really even an underdog for that match.
Even if that United match ends up causing a bit of trouble for owners, the fact that Spurs follow that up with Hull and Burnley makes them too good to pass up. If the way that Tottenham just treated Swansea is any indication of what’s to come, these lower table teams are probably due for a drubbing.
#3) Liverpool – WHU (H), MID (A), EVE (A)
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I left Liverpool off the list last week because we didn’t know if they had lost both of their key men or not at that time. And as it turns out, just losing Coutinho didn’t really hurt their ability to score goals. I have no explanation as to how they managed to concede 4 goals so quickly to lose their match against Bournemouth, but still having the ability to score multiple goals will have Liverpool win more often than they lose. Yet even with that being said, part of me thinks that Arsenal are the better pick here, but Liverpool just made the cut because they have West Ham in the schedule.
West Ham currently are the worst in the league for goals conceded (29 GA). Now this article was written prior to the Monday match between Hull and Middlesbrough, so Hull could potentially pass them up…but still, 29 goals allowed through 14 games? When you pair that stat with the fact that Liverpool still lead the league in scoring (35 goals), you have to give the nod to Liverpool to go ahead and correct their mistakes from this past weekend and win in a blowout. Middlesbrough are a bit of an enigma, but I expect Liverpool to have the clear advantage nonetheless. Middlesbrough have only allowed 15 goals on the year, which actually rivals some of the elite clubs; the problem is that they’ve only scored 12 (again, all prior to playing against Hull on Monday), so I think that lack of offence will only bolster Liverpool’s resolve to attack them outright without having to worry about too much of a counter. And for the Liverpool Derby? Eh…Everton are not good right now. And unless Liverpool somehow pick up Fellaini in a super-secret deal prior to the transfer window, I don’t think that Everton have much to offer against their rivals as things stand at this very moment.
3 Teams to Avoid
#1) Everton – WAT (A), ARS (H), LIV (H)
Being completely honest, any team that has to face Arsenal and Liverpool in back to back games would be at a severe disadvantage. But the fact that Everton are finding results hard to come by against every team they face only compounds the issue. Everton haven’t won a match since late October (against West Ham, so it almost doesn’t count), and even playing a team like Watford doesn’t inspire any kind of confidence that they’ll be able to finally get a win. Simply put, Arsenal and Liverpool are probably too strong for Everton in their current form, and playing at home will not help them all that much.
#2 Leicester – MCI (H), BOU (A), STK (A)
Even though we touched on the congested schedule above, we tend to forget sometimes that Leicester will be one of those teams with an extra difficult task because they also play Champions League this week. And fair play to them, they’ve been phenomenal in their Champions League group – but none of that success has really translated to their league play. Manchester City coming to town is probably not going to work out too well for the Foxes, and it’s just wishful thinking on our part to think that maybe Mahrez and Vardy could bust out some of that magic from yesteryear. And following up a very difficult home game with two road fixtures is the last thing that Leicester need; they’ve yet to win a game on the road this year, and they’ve been outscored by a margin of 18-6 whilst playing away.
#3) West Brom – CHE (A), SWA (H), MUN (H)
I feel like any team that has to play Chelsea away has a good shot at being part of this portion of the article, and WBA are no exception. They’re about to find themselves considerably overmatched in their next fixture, and as an owner of their players, you have to hope that the following Swansea game repays what you stand to lose from the Chelsea clash. And as for United? Again, total wildcard. WBA could win 2-0 or lose 4-1, but it’s a non-favorable matchup from a fixtures analysis standpoint.
One Week Punt
Southampton – MID (H)
Southampton got crushed on the road against Crystal Palace this past week. I know, I couldn’t believe it either. We knew eventually that Palace would break their losing streak, but Southampton weren’t high on my list of teams that would be the ones to fall on that sword. It’s interesting how we perceive teams based on name-recognition though, isn’t it? I fall into that trap all too often myself. Of course Southampton should beat Crystal Palace, they’re slightly more famous and get talked about more in the media. At least that’s how our brains work when processing information.
And so when it comes to this match they have this week, we naturally defer to Southampton (more well known) over Middlesbrough (recently promoted, less well known). But when you look at the facts, Southampton are only marginally better than Middlesbrough. The goal splits for the two teams are 13-15 and 13-15, respectively. So if the most basic stats are dead equal, there has to be some reason other than name-recognition for me to recommend them right?
The truth is that Middlesbrough haven’t won a match on the road since August (2-1 over Sunderland, back when playing Sunderland meant a guaranteed win). Southampton, on the other hand, have had a bit of success at home recently, and I think that will translate into a win for them come the weekend. Southampton have clean sheets in their last two home matches, their last being a 1-0 win over Everton. Ok, so maybe Everton aren’t the best barometer for testing a team, but consider then that Southampton shutout Liverpool the week prior in a 0-0 draw. And that game happened the week after Liverpool hung 6 goals on Watford, so they were in form. There’s much more to like about Southy at home (do only Americans call them Southy for short?) than there is to like about Middlesbrough on the road. They get my vote this week.
Thanks for reading FPL Fixtures Analysis Gameweek 15. This article was written by Guy Sanchez
Vote on our Captain Poll Now
With a future team like this, should I even bother squeezing in aguero Aguero when he returns?
I’d be more worried at the lack of Alexis and/or Hazard!
I agree with Cookie. Especially with the form Sanchez is in
I don’t like spending too much on midfields. Otherwise my forward line or defence suffers.
I do think Walcott and Costa should provide adequate coverage for the two in form teams.
Yeah, I was thinking Wally was enough past Saturday when my cappo Sanchez scored 3 goals and got an assist. I don’t know what you are on but Sanchez is a must. >.<
Anyway, the game needs people like you so I can keep my good rank. :p
Sanchez isn’t a must. I find him overpriced for what he is
Your defense is overpriced. I have a defense consisting out of Pickford (play him every week), Holebas, Smith, Evans, Amat and Pieters. They got me a top 20k spot together with my midfield. I have Hazard, Firminho, Sanchez and Redmond (this one has great fixtures but poor form fpl wise, so he might go). My forwards are Costa, Kane and Austin and I have 2.5m in the bank. I’d pick my team over yours any day of the week. But that’s personal. In the long run I know my team with outscore yours.
You have 4 forwards whereas I have six plus Hazard. 😉
So much money in defense really doesn’t sit well with me. I might upgrade defense but I don’t need 4 top defenders unless I have a shitload of money.
But Walcott and Costa
I have noticed . Sanchez is playing as a forward though but is listed as a midfielder. Judging by the last game Walcott don’t cover Arsenal though
With the busy days coming soon people are starting to force in 15 starting players.
Browning Randall and Cook are waste.
Way too much spent on Cech Walker Valencia and Alonso.
Plus Walcott isn’t any safer Arsenal cover.
One of at least Sanchez/Hazard is a must
Split that defence mate, frees up lots of funds
Cook and Randall are just on bench they will never see play.
Waxys
I’m not sure about a lot in that team.
I would have two premium defenders and strengthen Browning and Randall so that at least five of them are playing every week (even if it is just minor upgrades to Ake and Amat).
I can’t argue with the attack and as you have Costa, I can see why Hazard could be left out but Walcott and Sanchez are incomparable, I think you definitely should get Sanchez in there.
He posted the same team at the weekend and I give a detailed and comprehensive feedback to the issues… and here is the same team again! I can’t decide if he’s trolling or just really stubborn! You can take a horse to water I guess!
Erm I’m asking if I needed aguero after the four weeks not for feedback but alright mate.
You asked ‘with a team like this’ hence why most people are commenting on the team. Who can say if Aguero will be needed or the forward you have in place will indeed perform better. I think with ‘forwards like that’ then you may not need Aguero, thats a problem we’re all going to have in 4 weeks time. If Costa,Kane and Ibra perform for you then it will certainly be difficult to justify dropping them and squeezing the additional few mil out of your team to accommodate Kun. Personally I’ll probably give Kun a few weeks to settle back in and make a decision … probably when he fires a hatrick 2 weeks on the bounce and Kane blanks/Costa/Ibra Blanks.
Rosco. I would not worry about it he thinks midfielders are not important yet Sanchez has the most points in the game and Hazard is one point shy of Costa. Having a squad will be important in December
Thanks Smash! I was just having a bit banter not meaning to offend ‘n’ that!!
The defence will just have Valencia, Alonso and Kosciently. The others are bench players to free up funds.
waxys
what will u do when walker, koscielny or valencia are rested? u got to have 15 starting players for december.. u understand?
Waxys
As vaskarch rightly says, that’s all well and good if your other three defenders always play but what happens if they don’t or indeed if one of your midfielders and strikers don’t play? You are at a disadvantage straight away and likely will be playing with ten or nine players which is a handicap straight away.
We’re only trying to help.
First of all thanks to Guy Sanchez for this superb article! I’m sure glad i have players from the 3 teams.
Hope you all did well this week. Got 80 points and green arrows and went up 142K places! Already did Kun to Kane now I have 1FT and £4.1 ITB. What transfer should I make this week? Think i’m sticking to Sanchez captain again.
Thinking of replacing Allen with a £9.3 max midfielder without a hit. These are my potential mids:
1) Mane 9.3 (with no money remaining)
2) Hazard 10.4 and downgrade Siggy to Fer (for a -4pt hit)
3) Eriksen 8.3/Alli 8.1 (but already have Kane and Walker so 3 spurs is too much?)
4) Any other suggestions?
Eagle,
Good score and that’s an attractive squad mate and I think you have identified the area in need of the cash injection so that’s a good sign.
Of the potential targets you have listed I think I would go for Tottenham based on those two home games ahead. Although, my pick would be Son if I’m honest. I thought he looked very sharp against Swansea.
If you are looking elsewhere for other coverage and you fell a bit fruity, you could take a look at Mkhitaryan from United. I have him on the watchlist just now. He has some nice fixtures ahead and some favourable reports in recent non- EPL games.
Thank you GP! The only thing I see with Son is that he is sometimes rotated. I think it was due to the CL but since Spurs are out then i guess no rotation worries. Mhiki is a great shout actually. I didn’t even had him in consideration but at least i will add him to my watchlist. United have some decent fixtures after the Spurs game so some sort of United coverage would be good.
Evening, don’t forget your CL teams
Cheers Init.
Captain Goof tonight.
Bollocks. I put Kun in last night thinking he’d almost certainly play with no more games for a month! Didn’t think I’d be around for the line ups. Great forward planning and all that… Screw it, might take a hit to replace him.
Replaced him with Sanchez. Cavani captain.
Same here, just bought Cavani and gave him the armband. Sync capos??
Seems a very sensible choice this evening. If not then it’s back to Ronnie tomorrow I suppose!
I’ve brought in Sanchez now too and he takes the armband. CL is annoying this year but thankfully we do have a late deadline – that’s one big thing it has going for it, that and the manual subs and captain switches.
Not playing-sold him!!
Lots of teams nothing left to play for so lots of teams putting in young ones. I put cappo on Messi. There is a leson I have learned, always put cappo on Messi day 1 and Ronaldo day 2 (or the other way around).
I’m ranked 104 in the fantasy champions league, so I guess I have been pretty accurate so far.
Currently have like 3 or 4 non starting players though.
Not taking hits for them either. Lets see how much I will fall. 
The top heavy big hitters strategy usually pays off in this Raz. That’s a superb rank, kudos.
I think right cap choices and getting certain players at the right time helps: Kimmich, Otavio, Grimaldo (last GW RiberY). They all scored for me. None of them playing this gameweek though and just read Mahrez is not playing tomorrow either, which is deadly. I will have a free fall in teh ranking. Preferred last season where a hit only cost you 2 points, now 4. Not worth a hit just hope I can field 11. Weeks before I could make topscores by taking out the low scorers on the second day. Doubt I’ll field 11 this one.
-2 made it much more enjoyable, especially as an ‘aside’ FF game. Not sure why so many games with unique features which work always end up just copying FPL. Yes MLS, I’m looking at you!
Great rank Raz, congrats. Dont worry too much, people around you should also strugle to field 11. And your capo scored and assisted right? You may even go up a few spots if you keep that as is. Cheers
I’m hoping Siggy comes off this week having brought him in last week for Lallana.
He’s not often quiet for long. Contemplating him for this week.
Red arrows, this is depressing….
Chin up Wafflez! Plans to arrest the slump?
It’s tough going when one of the big guns goes off and you miss the boat so to speak, I’d still be looking to bring Sanchez in over the next two GW’s or so (deal with Aguero first). Sooner or later them reds will start turning green, just got to stick at it.
Sanchez starts again
Is he allergic to Rest?
😉
Yeah I think so. Sanchez always plays even when Wenger tells him he wants to rest him
Since Sanchez is key to Arsenals title chances, I think Wenger is a turd. But we always knew this. Fucking coat he’s always wearing. >.<
Yeah it’s the coat for me as well Raz!
:big-lol:
Great rank though mate so you can say what you want I guess.
In Arsene we Trust
This truth will give you another fourth place, I am sure. 😉 HAHA!
Above Spurs for sure
B)
Top spots still up for grabs in the group so they’re probably still after that, they’ve been burned with nightmare draws in the second round of the Champions league the last couple of season’s all because they failed to get that numero uno.
With their luck, they’ll now pair with Madrid and we all know how that ends…