FPL Fixtures Analysis Gameweek 21
Welcome to FPL Fixtures Analysis Gameweek 22. To quote Shawshank Redemption: āI find Iām so excited, I can barely sit still or hold a thought in my head.ā That about sums up my mood yesterday after Everton beat City 4-0. I tell you truly that I walked on clouds my entire Sunday. I smiled at my wife a bit more, I listened more attentively when my kids spoke to me. From that win, I was a better husband, a better father, a better man. But now today is Monday, and Iām supposed to revert back to the same lesser version of myself that you all know and love.
And for the purposes of this article, thatās probably a good thing. Had I written this article yesterday, Iām sure Everton wouldāve been #1 on my list of buys, and I probably wouldāve put City as the top team to avoid (although…that might not be a bad idea anyway). So let me try to put on my analytical hat and break down these fixtures without so much of the emotion that I carried yesterday – but forgive me if some of my good cheer tries to sneak through. This almost feels like the time I wrote an MLS article hopped up on a double dose of Dayquil: Iām buzzing hard, but I need to find a way to keep it together and make this thing coherent. On that account, I make no promises.
The Tracker in full…
Top 3 Best Buys
#1) Arsenal – BUR (H), WAT (H), CHE (A)
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[/three_fifth]Does it matter that Alexis Sanchez really looked fed up when he was subbed off on Saturday? Should we be concerned that Giroud eventually hobbled off after his goal? I guess the Arsenal detractors are probably making too great a deal of these issues, and the Arsenal faithful are probably making too light of them. Sure, Alexis looks like heās really not happy – but he wasnāt happy before the game against Swansea and he still managed to get his goal anyway. And Giroud, was he really hurt? He scored and asked for a sub, but then he kept playing. And then he asked for a sub again…or maybe they just subbed him off to be precautionary. I donāt know, the whole thing was just very French, if you know what I mean. Either way, with all of the āturmoilā that surrounds the club, they still won an easy 4-0 victory over a lesser team.
And thatās what Arsenal are set to face here in the coming matches, lesser teams (Chelsea excluded, of course). Burnley are a great story this year, theyāre getting a good amount of wins and have a stout defence when they apply themselves – at least Heaton plays stout defence anyway. But theyāre not on par with Arsenal. To this point, Burnley have played four matches against teams in the current Top 4, and they have lost three of those. They managed to beat Liverpool in the second week of the year, but theyāve already lost to Chelsea, Arsenal and Tottenham. And if you added Man City to the mix, youād find another pair of losses for Burnley. Burnley are a good club, but theyāre not competing with the big boys yet.
As for Watford, the team is in free fall. Theyāve only managed to put across two goals in the last five matches, so those are numbers that even Petr Cech has to feel comfortable with. And by the time Arsenal finally get to Chelsea, well you can cross that bridge when you get to it. But these first two fixtures on Arsenalās schedule make them must-haves in my book.
#2) Tottenham – MCI (A), SUN (A), MID (H)
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[/three_fifth]The Spurs look near unstoppable at this point. Their defence is solid, and their offence is absolutely rolling at the moment. And thatās going to be a problem for Man City come this weekend. Tottenham are coming off a 4-0 win over WBA, and City, like I said above, are coming off a 0-4 loss to Everton – so the most simple math in the equation checks out. The thing is, the Top 4 at the moment are all very similar in their stats, especially when it comes to goal differential and finding ways to shut down opponents whilst scoring in bunches. Every team in the Top 4 has a GD of at least +25, and City are sitting down at +15. In the Top 4, the average GA is 18.75, and Chelsea and Tottenham lead the way with 15 and 14 GA, respectively. City sit on 26 GA.
Now I know what youāre saying, ābut Tottenham have to play City away, and that counts for somethingā. And yeah, thatās true. But looks at Cityās last three home games: 2-1 over Burnley, 2-1 over Arsenal and 2-0 over Watford. Kudos for beating Arsenal in a tight fixture, but squeaking by against Burnley and Watford? Call me crazy, but I think that Tottenham, in their form, have a real shot at making Cityās back line look foolish again. āBut what about Aguero, heās going to go off at any momentā. Hey, maybe he will. But Iām not betting my weekly allowance on Aguero to take off against a team thatās only conceding 0.6 goals per game on average.
Even if Tottenham have a hiccup against City, you only have to look at Sunderland and Middlesbrough to make up your mind that theyāre still a great buy for this week. Sunderland, last I checked, still have only Jermaine Defoe playing for them, and playing 1 v 11 in professional football isnāt going to yield much success. And as for Middlesbrough, they just played to a 0-0 draw with Watford, and doesnāt everybody score against Watford? Whether or not Tottenham get 9 points this run is up for some debate, but itās realistic to think that they could get 8-10 goals whilst only allowing a pair total through these next three matches.
#3) Manchester United – STK (A), HUL (H), LEI (A)
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[/three_fifth]I had a hard time making up my mind on the third pick this week. Chelsea are still in first place and are managing just fine, Costa or no Costa. But they have both Liverpool and Arsenal in their schedule. So likewise, I chose to take Liverpool out of the running due to them playing Chelsea – but that was tough since they have a cakewalk with Swansea as their next fixture. So I landed on Man United as my pick once again, because they have lesser teams to play against, and Ibra canāt stop himself from scoring. Also the linesmen really seem to love United, so their increase in offside goals makes them an attractive play.
But I really want to disqualify United from being listed, believe me. For the life of me, I canāt figure out why they keep throwing Fellaini into the mix. Every time that dude comes onto the pitch, itās almost like playing Russian Roulette with your fantasy score. But somehow, theyāre making it work, so weāll stick with them again here.
Looking at their next game, youād think that playing against Stoke just got a bit more interesting since they seemed to find some offence this last round – but then I remembered who Stoke beat, and it set my mind at ease. Stoke have indeed won their last two matches – but those were against Sunderland and Watford. Prior to those two matches they played Chelsea and Liverpool and lost both of those games by a combined score of 8-3. So yeah, when a more quality side comes to town, they tend to fold up.
Hull are still Hull, and I donāt really rate them against anybody thatās higher in the table than Sunderland or Swansea. And finally, United will play Leicester away. Now I raised a few eyebrows last week when I picked Chelsea to win easily over Leicester, and Iām glad that the Foxes proved my analysis to be correct. They simply are a mess right now. Theyāre missing too many pieces that went away to AFCON, and they donāt look like they know how to put Humpty Dumpty together again. Until Leicester are truly back to full strength (and until they make a savvy addition to the squad), I think theyāll be underdogs against these bigger clubs.
3 Teams To Avoid
#1) Hull City – CHE (A), MUN (A), LIV (H)
I said last week that Hull desperately needed to get a result against Bournemouth, because it was probably going to be their last chance at points for quite some time. And when you look at this schedule, you can see why. If any team in the league had a schedule this brutal, I would put them here as the top team to avoid – but this is doubly painful for a team thatās already in the relegation zone to have to play these teams in quick order. All those new Snodgrass owners are about to be put to the test for having to root for Hull to produce something through him – but let me say now, itās not looking good.
#2) Swansea – LIV (A), SOU (H), MCI (A)
I like to imagine that Bob Bradley sat on his couch and laughed for the entirety of the 0-4 loss that the Swans suffered against Arsenal this past week. After all, when Bradley coached against Arsenal they only lost by a score of 2-3, and that was on the road. But the truth is, no matter who is coaching that team, theyāre just not built with enough talent to compete. Liverpool and Man City should ragdoll this club, and even Southampton (Southy for you cool kids) shouldnāt have too much to worry about. Swansea are already the club that āleadsā the way in goals allowed on the year (49), and theyāll be the first team to hit the 50 GA mark on Saturday, no doubt in my mind.
#3) West Ham – MID (A), MCI (H), SOU (A)
Remember last week when I made West Ham my punt for the round? 3-0 over Palace was the result. Youāre welcome. But honestly, they were a one week punt for a reason – they were at home against a lower opponent. But when they play on the road, theyāre really not good at all. And now theyāve got a pair of road games to play and will host City in between, so itās not looking great for a team that is also suffering an identity crisis now that their best player no longer wants to play. To date, West Ham have only won 2 games on the road (against Swansea and Palace), and theyāve allowed 19 goals through 10 games. And it really doesnāt matter who they play, good teams or bad. They just donāt perform well enough on the road to warrant much trust in them. And even though City are struggling, theyāre still better than West Ham. No matter how you break this down, West Ham deserve this spot this week.
One Week Punt
West Brom – SUN (H)
People have been quite high on West Brom, and a few of their players have found their way onto many squads due to some higher-than-projected performances. But look, we all kind of knew that WBA were going to be outmatched in their game against Tottenham. In fact, their last three losses now have come against Tottenham, Arsenal and Man United. So yeah, they are a team of a certain size that canāt compete consistently against bigger clubs. But against clubs on their level? Theyāve found a way to be incredibly effective. Sunderland donāt have an answer for any team right now unless Jermaine Defoe somehow earns a penalty or takes on the entire defence with one run – so I look for WBA to have a great bounceback game against them. Matt Phillips for captain, anyone?
Morning everyone. Great read here Guy. Once again.
Anybody see this new Juventus logo?? Please tell me they aren’t going to use that bloody thing!!!
I think I like it
Serious?? I bloody hate it haha
Yeah I know and I hate bloody change usually
I don’t think it’s been very well thought out as it’ll look cack with certain backgrounds with it having no border, I’m not sure it’ll last very long.
Was trying to work out what it reminded me of…..to think they’ve probably paid thousands for that design…..
Hahaha
as some Juve fan posted on twitter, there new logo looks like something Pogba would have shaved into his head
Hahah that’s exactly it!!
I prefer the Atari logo.
Matt – r u a Juve fan ?
Not an out and out fan but I do appreciate a good team why?
Just asking mate š
I’m a Juve fan myself…
Ah didn’t know HL. What’s your opinion on this monstrosity then? š
10 hours you’ve been going on about this now Matt! Must be honest I like it. It’s very clean and modern.
hey guys,
am i crazy to go with this team and drop rose and defoe?
I would play Defoe ahead of Davies, who isn’t going to score all that many from the position he plays.
id only consider defoe if anichebe plays. Sunderland are woeful and even worse away from.home where they have only scored 6 times. Everton can easily take 2 to 3 off palace. Davies hsd scored and assisted the last 2 games.
I would definately play Defoe over Davies. I would also play Rose over Chambers but admit that could go either way
+1
+7
Hey guys,
Here’s my team for GW22 (see pic).
I’ve already made my transfers.
Is it worth taking a -4 point hit and bringing in Coutinho for Pogba?
I’m a United fan, so I’m always going to be a bit biased. But I’ve already got Ibrahimovic upfront and I’m a bit worried not having any Liverpool coverage.
Looking at the fixtures, United probably have the consistently easier run, but Liverpool’s easy/hard/easy/hard fixtures are still tempting.
What do you think I should do?
Ian, you would expect a fit Coutinho to outscore Pogba, now whether he does it this week and pay for that remains to be seen….he certainly has the fixture to do it!
Much probably depends on his gametime which may be at question right now.
If its a case of tight finance I say go for it….and the punter in me also says to do it! But wait until their replay and Klopp’s presser for a fuller assessment.
“Punter in me” makes it sound like that is a hidden thing in you. If you said the “Kop in me” that would be news.
Leave me out of this!!
Thanks Cookie. Great advice! I hadn’t spotted the fa cup reply tomorrow night, so I will definitely hold out before deciding my next move!
Many thanks Guy, in particular for discrediting United even though you had to pick them. š
Cheers Guy, great piece of work this. And fair play to you on the Chelsea call last week away to Leicester. I for one thought they would struggle without Costa but that just seemed to help their game, oddly…Is Pedro a must have for this next game? In form, very cheap when compared with others (looking at you Miki), playing OOP, at home against Dawson and co!
On other news, I think it’s time that you confess your crimes and let Nyom free, or what’s left of him, so we can properly punt on WBA, as suggested!
Guys, need to sort out certain issues in my team. Amat, Smith, barry, pickford, Allen are players to worry about..also, no spurs/ Chelsea defs seems an issue. Should I wildcard? Team attached..
No wc needed here Constantine.Give Hazard the Hull game and swap him for Eriksen/Alli and use the cash to upgrade Allen to Phillips.
Snap
Spooky…
Brooky, looks like you have some Kop in you.
Yeah..the similarity in thoughts is frightening.
There’s no need for a WC here Constantine. After Chelsea play Hull this weekend you could look to replace Hazard with Eriksen/Alli and you could then use the spare cash to upgrade Allen and possibly get in a Chelsea or Spurs defender.
Cheers Brooky and KOP. Got motivated by Cookie re WCing early in the season to upgrade your team and later plan properly for the DGW prior in time. Anyways, your suggestions are spot on..but, don’t want to play Allen against Valencia. Want a decent scoring MF for this week. Cant get Phillips who i would have loved to have in the team against Sunderland at home.
I’d roll the transfer over.
Yes mate – use that WC š