FPL Fixtures Analysis Gameweek 26

FPL Fixtures Analysis Gameweek 26

Welcome to FPL Fixtures Analysis Gameweek 26. Well, we’ve finally made it to the bye week that everybody has been fretting over for so long now. If you still have your wildcard intact, this ‘ain’t nothin’ but a thang’. If you blew your wildcard early on in the transfer window, you may be crapping your pants right now trying to figure out how you’re going to offload so many players and get them all back before the inevitable DGW’s roll around. And that’s a perfectly justified response for that situation.

As you well know, Arsenal, Man City, Man United and Southampton are all on byes this round. And that’s even more significant now that Southampton have really come on with some strong performances. There will be no captaining Sanchez this week. No relying on a steady above-average return from Ibra. And Aguero will certainly play zero minutes – not his standard 15 minutes per round. And of course, LOL’s to the 17% of you still wasting nearly 13m on Aguero.

What is also taking shape is GW28 and the double game-weeks that will follow it. The weekend’s FA Cup action has made the picture clearer for GW28 and in simple form, it is as follows:

The matches still on are:
Bournemouth vs West Ham
Everton vs West Brom
Hull vs Swansea
Liverpool vs Burnley

The matches definitely off are:
Arsenal vs Leicester
‘Boro vs Sunderland
Chelsea vs Watford
Palace vs Spurs
Southampton vs Man Utd

The match between Man City and Stoke will be postponed if City win their Cup replay vs Huddersfield.

Obviously the postponed matches from GW26 & GW28 will need to be rearranged with GW34 & GW37 looking the most likely, though nothing has been confirmed as yet – as soon as the new dates are announced we will of course keep you well informed.

So how do we even read this tracker this week? We know those 4 teams definitely aren’t playing this round, but GW28 is even more ominous. In some ways though, it’s just a matter of perspective. What looks like a hard decision is actually the opposite. With fewer teams to choose from, your selection process just gets easier. The only thing you have to worry about is balancing how many negative hits you’ll need to feel satisfied with the team you field. But that’s advice for a different article. Here’s what I’m thinking for the games that are actually going to be played this week:

The Tracker in full…

Top 3 Best Bets#1)
Everton – SUN (H), TOT (A), WBA (H)

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[/three_fifth]Everton top my list for a second week in a row – only this week their merit of play isn’t the leading factor for their inclusion. Simply put, Everton don’t blank on GW26 or GW28, they play a pair of home games against lesser competition, and they haven’t actually ‘lost’ in a good while. What more can you want?

I put ‘lost’ in quotes because Everton, as you all well know, tend to play to the level of their competition. It doesn’t matter who the coach is, doesn’t matter who they start in the game – it’s simply the curse of Everton. This team is probably better served playing Man City each and every week than playing a team further down the table. They have a remarkable ability to show up for big games when needed, and then completely play like an inferior club when there’s seemingly nothing on the line. I had high hopes for Everton in GW25. I thought Lukaku scoring 4 goals the week before meant they’d destroy Middlesbrough. And I was wrong.

Do the games against Sunderland and West Brom concern me? Yeah, and they probably worry me more than the Tottenham game right now. But ‘on paper’, Everton should be the favorites for the two home games, and we’ll just have to hope that the math pencils out in their favour this go-round.

Sunderland are still fundamentally broken. Although I’m not sure if them losing to Southampton 0-4 was as much to do with Sunderland’s form or Southy’s new sense of attack (pardon my obligatory Southy reference – I can’t help myself). Still, David Moyes will probably be traveling to Goodison this week wondering why the hell he ever left in the first place. And I honestly don’t see him pulling out any points from this match.

Tottenham looked human in GW25 against Liverpool. I still tip them to be favourites over Everton, especially at home. But now there are doubts about this team – so the degree of certainty for their victory over Everton feels more like 70% likely, not 100% guaranteed. As for West Brom? They’ve made themselves into a legitimate top-half club this year, and maybe their increased stature will perk Everton up a bit for the game.

#2) Hull City – BUR (H), LEI (A), SWA (H)
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[/three_fifth]Before you take me to the FF247 Tribunal to have me barred from the site for putting Hull City in the second spot this week, just take another second to look at the landscape of the game. Now take another second and calm the hell down and realise that I might actually be right about this.

Like I’ve said several times, this isn’t a Tips article – so I honestly am not recommending specific players from Hull to be in your squad. But with the very few teams that are not going to be struck by a bye week over the next three rounds, Hull actually have the most favourable of all schedules. They have two home games to play, and all of their opponents are very firmly in the bottom half of the table. And Hull…have actually been pretty decent lately? Can I say that? I’m saying it.

Look, they just barely lost to Arsenal. Had Alexis Sanchez not slapped that ball in like he was back playing 6th grade tetherball (Americans will know what I mean), Hull very likely only lose that game 0-1. But furthermore, had Hull not concede a penalty late on in the game, they probably walk away with a point from that match. And they have that ability. Just look back three games when they earned a draw against Man United. And what about when they outright beat Liverpool to the tune of 2-0? I’m not saying that Hull is stacked with tons of talent, but they are full of fight. And maybe that’s more important for them right now. Honestly, if history holds true, I expect that if they survive relegation this year, they’ll probably win the league next season. I mean, it’s been done before.

Burnley and Swansea will both put up a good fight, I’m sure of that. But Hull have been better at home lately. In fact, both of their last two home matches resulted in victories (over Bournemouth and Liverpool), and they won by a combined score of 5-1 in those matches. So Burnley and Swansea may be in for a bit of a tougher fight than they’ve anticipated. As for Leicester away? I can’t call it. They’re the only club left that’s yet to score in 2017, and if you watched the Leicester v Swansea match from GW25…you have to wonder where that first goal is going to come from. Until something drastic changes in their day to day preparation, I tip Hull as the favourites on the road.

#3) Chelsea – SWA (H), WHU (A), blank
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[/three_fifth]I’m not going to make every pick have the prerequisite that the team play three consecutive matches. After all, I did just recommend Hull City, so I have to balance the scales somehow. The truth is, Chelsea are the team to have this week as they’re one of the few big clubs not on a bye. So even if they do blank in three rounds’ time, there’s no reason not to use them to full effect until then.

Their draw against Burnley was disappointing, but if your biggest stumble in recent memory is a 1-1 draw… you’re probably in pretty good shape overall. I expect Swansea will come down off their high of beating Leicester in GW25 once they realise they have zero chance at beating Chelsea. And even though West Ham has found a bit of form lately, nobody could argue that they’ll have anything substantive to offer up against the league’s best team. So yeah, does that bye week on the fringe of the action give a bit of pause? Maybe. But the fact of the matter is that you still have to have Chelsea coverage as long as they’re playing in the round. But what do I know? There are still managers in the game that would rather have Aguero over Costa. LOL’s.

Notes on Bye Week Teams
Obviously it would be easiest for me to include the blanking teams this week as the teams to avoid, but what’s the fun in that? It should be common sense that you want to avoid Arsenal since they won’t be in league play for 2 out of the next 3 weeks. But common sense is a rare commodity (re: Aguero ownership). So suffice to say, please just avoid the teams on the bye week without needing me to write out an individual piece on each team. That’s just tedious.

3 Teams To Avoid
#1) Bournemouth – WBA (A), MUN (A), WHU (H)
Of all the teams that won’t be affected with a bye, I probably fancy Bournemouth the least. Did that sound British of me to say? I’m trying people, honestly I am. Anyway, even with Bournemouth’s decent scoring record, their overall form as of late has been pretty abysmal. You’d think that a team that has scored 12 goals over their last 7 games would have at least amassed 5-7 points in the league. Bournemouth have only earned 2. It doesn’t matter how much they score, they find ways to concede just one more. And I think most would agree that the three teams that they’re playing here in this stretch have the ability to capitalise on that. That’s not to say you wouldn’t want to own some of their offence, just saying that they don’t look likely to win anything soon.

#2) Sunderland – EVE (A), MCI (H), blank
Due to Middlebrough’s Cup win over Oxford, Sunderland blank in GW28. Even if they played in the next three rounds, they’re still not worth it. I only include them here because Jermaine Defoe is still one of the highest owned forwards in the game at nearly 30%. And aside from that surprise 4-0 victory over Crystal Palace two weeks back, Sunderland haven’t shown that they’re capable of scoring anywhere near often enough for any player to come close to that level of ownership in my book. I know that this isn’t a tips article, but c’mon people. From a fixtures standpoint, I can only tell you that with the games coming up, I’d probably have to tip Sunderland to be scoreless losers in both of their matches.

#3) Swansea – CHE (A), BUR (H), HUL (A)
I know, I get it. I’m rooting on some level for Swansea too. Mostly I’m rooting for Siggy to not have to get relegated and find a new club under those circumstances. But the truth is, even with their little pick-me-up game they had over Leicester, this isn’t going to be an easy run for this side. Chelsea away is a killer. Burnley will simply deny goals when they’re on their day. And Hull? Well, see above. If I had to bet on the points Swansea are due from this next run, I’d have to bet the under 2.5.

One Week Punt
Lastly there will be no one week punt until after the blank weeks have come and gone. At this stage in the game, everything you’re about to try is going to be a punt. Kind of like the people that continue to own Aguero. That’s an NFL level punt there. LOL’s.

Thanks for reading FPL Fixtures Analysis Gameweek 26. This article was written by Guy Sanchez

Follow @Guy_M_sanchez