FPL Fixtures Analysis Gameweek 34
Welcome to FPL Fixtures Analysis Gameweek 34. We’re finally coming down to the end of the season. And I have to admit, it’s been a pretty good year to this point. With only 5-6 games remaining for most teams, we still don’t know who the winner of the league will be. We don’t yet have a definitive Top 4. And the relegation battle still includes 6-7 candidates. All in all, there’s a reason to still watch every weekend, and that’s always a plus. Also, with a few exceptions, mostly every team is still playing for something – and being motivated to play until the very last game makes picking a fantasy squad just a bit easier.
The only problem with getting on towards the end of the year, at least from a fixtures standpoint, is the inevitable congestion in the schedule. Some teams will play in a DGW and absolutely crush it. And other teams might treat a DGW like the MLS does and completely rotate the squad. It’s hard to predict how a team will set their lineups in these cases, and for that I’m glad that I’m not the tips writer. If you told me to find a set of players that are ‘rotation proof’, I’d probably fail miserably. But…I only put one team with a DGW into my Best Bets, so I might fail miserably anyway.
The Tracker in full…
Top 3 Best Bets
#1) Manchester United – BUR (A), MCI (A), SWA (H), ARS (A)
[three_fifth padding=”0 20px 0 0″]
[/three_fifth]
In your mind, before you select your Man United players (because we all know you will), put an asterisk next to those picks. The upside is obvious: four games in three weeks with two of the games coming against Burnley and Swansea. The asterisk will simply serve to remind you that three of those four games are going to be on the road – and that’s just a tough ask for anybody.
There is a bit of good news here though, and that’s the fact that Man United haven’t actually lost on the road since October 23 (away to Chelsea). For as up and down as United have been this year, they’ve been remarkably good at gutting out results on the road. They really haven’t had to go up against the likes of City and Arsenal in that span since the Chelsea loss, but fair play to them for doing what’s necessary against the teams they should beat. Also, after avenging the Chelsea loss over the weekend, dare we say that United might be coming into a bit of good form? Well, maybe that specific lineup they put out is in good form, but good luck seeing the same XI from United on a week to week basis.
There’s a lot to like about United going into this series of games. Injuries to Rooney, Mata, Jones and Smalling will actually help in picking a more consistent side. And for all of the defensive rotation they’ve been subject to, United have somehow become the second-best defence in the league. They’ve allowed 24 goals on the year which only trails Tottenham for the league lead.
I know, right? Completely surprised me too.
There will always be those frustrating elements about United (or any Mourinho coached team) that can completely sink your fantasy squad though. Ibra wasn’t a starter this past weekend, and United still won against Chelsea. Somehow Fellaini is now a 90-minute starter whilst Mkhitaryan rides the pine for long stretches. That’s neither here nor there – the fact remains that United have found some form with some strange combinations, and their record on the road suggests that they’ll continue having success during this stretch.
#2) Bournemouth – MID (H), SUN (A), STK (H)
[three_fifth padding=”0 20px 0 0″]
[/three_fifth]
Sure, they don’t have a DGW in either this week or GW36 – but this schedule is still pretty good. People are probably down on Bournemouth right now after disappointing outings in their last couple of matches, but you have to put those matches into context. Bournemouth got handled by Chelsea and Tottenham in back to back games. Fact is, most teams would get handled under those same conditions, so I can forgive them that.
This really is the Bingo Bango pick of the week though. Two home games out of their next three matches? Bingo. Sunderland in their schedule? Bango. And it’s not like Stoke are even much of a worry yet. Stoke may have gotten over on Hull City last weekend, but they were still losers in the previous four matches prior to that. So they have a lot to do to prove they’re a club to be feared for a team like Bournemouth. And Bournemouth should be going into that Stoke game with some positive momentum after playing the bottom two teams in the table.
If the goal to avoid relegation is 40 points on the year (at least that’s what Football Manager is constantly telling me), Bournemouth will be keen to hit that mark as soon as possible. They’re currently on 35 points and have only 5 games remaining in their season. And as everybody knows, it really doesn’t get any easier than playing Middlesbrough and Sunderland, so I’d expect them to throw out all the stops to secure those points as soon as possible.
#3) Chelsea – SOU (H), EVE (A), MID (H)
[three_fifth padding=”0 20px 0 0″]
[/three_fifth]
In a surprise and welcome twist, the title race is now back on. Whereas Chelsea used to have such a commanding lead in the table that we worried that they wouldn’t have any motivation to play hard late in the year, they’re now in that precarious position of having just a four point lead over Tottenham, and both teams have just 6 games remaining. So the title really is up for grabs again, and Chelsea will need to do everything possible to maintain their advantage.
And that really is good news for fantasy managers who need motivated players. The two home games that Chelsea have here should be wins. Southampton still haven’t gotten back to the levels they played at when Gabbiadini was fully fit, and Middlesbrough are the Pepsi to Sunderland’s Coca Cola. I’d like to be an optimist here to think that Everton would beat Chelsea, but that’s being a bit too speculative. Chelsea are better than Everton, and if they play their best game, they will secure the result.
Chelsea really have some work to do to maintain the image of being the best overall team in the Premier League. They’re now ranked 3rd in both offence and defence, and unlike Tottenham, they’re now prone to stumble in spots you’d really expect them to simply dominate. But it’s still too early to panic for this club. They’re professionals and this isn’t their first rodeo. I’m expecting them to bounce back in a big way and push this title race all the way to the end.
Notes on the other DGW teams
I’m sure many people would disagree with my list above seeing as it only has one team that has a DGW in the coming weeks. But like I’ve said so many times, this is a fixtures article, not a tips article. Having four difficult games instead of just three doesn’t make things better for a team given the criteria I’m supposed to work with. So just to be sure that I’m being thorough, here’s a bit on every team that has a DGW coming up, along with the reasons why I left them out of the ‘Best Bets’ list.
Arsenal – LEI (H), TOT (A), MUN (H) & SOU (A) – DGW36
If we paired up the Leicester and Southampton games with just one of their other matches, things would’ve looked better for Arsenal. But having to go up against the 1st and 2nd best defences in the league in back to back games is going to be tough. Also, the last time period that we can really say Arsenal were in good form was probably January – they haven’t had back to back wins since defeating Swansea and Burnley on the 14th and 22nd of that month. They’ve shown a bit of brilliance in patches this Spring, but they remain a disjointed mess. And as such, I can’t advocate them being a good buy based on the fixtures they have coming up.
Crystal Palace – LIV (A) & TOT (H), BUR (H), MCI (A) – DGW34
Palace very nearly made my list this week as having a good shot at getting some points from this stretch. They’re coming off wins over Chelsea and Arsenal in recent weeks and look to be finding another gear. But if we’re being honest, outside of the Burnley game, Palace are going to be facing three teams in the current Top 4, and what can we really expect from any club under such circumstances? Regardless of how you feel about potential minutes or scoring chances for this team, this would still be a horrendous schedule for any club to have. Simply compacting the games into a DGW doesn’t make it any more appealing.
Middlesbrough – BOU (A) & SUN (H), MCI (H), CHE (A) – DGW34
I’m a bit tired of beating up on Middlesbrough. They’re just not any good, are they? They have the absolute worst scoring record in the league, and unless Sunderland allow them 5 goals (it could happen), they’ll probably end the year that way. This team is in no way equipped to play City and Chelsea in back to back weeks – and the fact that they have a DGW this week doesn’t make any part of this schedule more appealing. They might draw with Sunderland as their silver lining, and both clubs probably deserve as much.
Southampton – CHE (A), HUL (H), LIV (A) & ARS (H) – DGW36
Southy also nearly made my cut this week seeing as how they just now got their main striker back – and if their brief history with him holds true, they’ll play better when he’s up to full match fitness. The Chelsea game will probably not go well for Southampton. Chelsea will be looking to immediately correct what went wrong in Manchester. But there will be some scoring chances in the Hull and Liverpool games. And Arsenal at home is probably a 50/50 shot at a result. Again, all of this depending on whether or not Gabbiadini stays fit.
Thanks for reading FPL Fixtures Analysis Gameweek 34. This article was written by Guy Sanchez
Vote on our Captain Poll Now
Hi!
Already made 2FTs.Ibra and zaha in for sanchez and deeney.
I’m massively chasing in my private league and I’m thinking of taking a hit to get some differentials.Is it worth it?
Have all my chips and WC left.
Plan to use WC in gw 35 so excessive loading of dgw players doesn’t matter.
Any suggestions are welcome.Cheers!
1.6m in the bank
How far you behind and how many players above you? What DGW players have they got?
Team does look solid for GW34
I’m 100pts behind from the leader and 4 guys are ahead of me though apart from the leader are just 15-20pts ahead of me.Valencia Ibra Zaha are in all the teams.The leader has only 1dgw rn.
I feel I can get another dgw player as Alonso is not gonna start for me.
Kunal
Who you would replace Alonso with? You could replace one of your keepers maybe with valdes if fit or maybe Hennessy? I’m in a similar position to you my friend and I will be taking a -8 to try and knock a few points off my rivals before I use my chips – the two guys above me have burnt both WC, TC and BB chips!!
Ballsy… I don’t envy your position Kunal, but I love these kind of hits/weeks… I closed an 80+ point gap in the final 5 weeks last season to finish 2nd (and in the $$$), taking 8 and 12 point hits along the way.. what have you got to lose? Alonso to PVA? he’s had two 15 points hauls this season for poor sides (albeit, they weren’t against the likes of TOT/LIV)… good luck..
I meant I’ll bench Alonso and try maybe Alonso to Townsend.He is currently only in 2.4% teams and more importantly in none of my rivals teams.Valdes I’ll moniter.Coincidently the leader of my league has used his chips too.He triple captained deeney some weeks back and got only 6points from him:p
Any other players worth looking at?
@high action I’m not the hits kinda guy.I think I haven’t taken more than 1 hit all season.But this gw I’m most probably taking a -8.Luckily for me I’ve my WC so I reckon i wont need any hits after this gw
i hear you man.. I’ve been very conservative this year with the hits, but again, what do you have to lose? You’re not gonna make that gap up by beating the ml leader by 4 points each week.. Benteke or Rashford for Lukaku? sounds crazy, I know..
Nothing’s crazy at this time of the season.That’s a good punt.I’ll consider it.Thanks mahnn
Kunal
Just bear in mind Lukaku’s phemonal record against West Ham 😉
Great looking team, that. I’d keep it as is, personally.
Hello community of FPL devotees, I’ve no idea what to do this week.. still holding the TC, BB and WC.. trailing the ML by a whopping 8 points.. finished 2nd the last 3 years and can’t look that in the eye again.. initial thought was Phillips to Townsend and Lukaku to Ibra this week +TC on Ibra.. then the rotation started at MU.. feel it’s a decent side considering that my ML leader doesn’t have his WC (but still has the benchie chip)… play conservative and do Smith to Friend or go for the original plan???
Highaction
I like the move for Townsend on its own but plenty will tell you to get Ibra but I think it is risky. Do your opponents in the ML already have him?
Nobody’s got Ibra and the leader has Zaha.. so I’m looking in between the lines at the moment.. also.. If I get Townsend for Phillips, who do i bench this week?
Probably Origi for the bench.
I would maybe go Zaha. I’m not convinced Ibrahimovic is that good an option this week.
I’m starting to believe the same on Ibra GP… if I go Zaha then I’m holding him close no matter.. he’s got Eriksen to my Alli.. that’s probably enough differential for 8 points..
Hi high
Sorry, that made me chuckle!
Personally my plan with those chips would be –
WC in 35
TC in 36
BB in 37
Wouldn’t bother with Ibra this week unless they lose on Thursday.
Instead I’d maybe get Zaha or Townsend as you planned plus Tekkers for Lukaku.
Play it simple. Max out that BB. That combo with the WC should see you win it I feel. With any luck anyway.
Thanks innit.. I’m nearly on the same page as you.. but I’m actually considering WC in 36, BB in 37 (max it, like you said) and TC in 38 if it stays close enough..
That did cross my mind too. The ultimate coup de grace! Couple of good options in 38 for it also. Indeed it crossed my mind enough for me to check it as an option. Could be a good plan, depends how it’s looking in the ML in the next few I guess. You’ll know well enough what the best call is as and when.
copy.. deep breath.. see this week out.
Thoughts on the article?
Suggestions and comments are welcome.
https://medium.com/@prashanthsekar1/fantasy-premier-league-analysis-1585b3bebe19
Hi prash, thanks!
Prash just wants some genuine feedback on some new ideas / concepts so if anyone gets a minute I’m sure it’d be appreciated. He’s contacted the site to ask permission and also contacted to see if it would be of any use to include some of his stuff on articles next season so I’m equally keen to see what people think. My initial thought was as an addition to the Capo piece. Be kind, but be honest too please, I’m sure he will take it constructively.
Prash!
Will have a butchers in the morning matey 😉
Prash – I really enjoyed that article! Well done 😉
Prash
That was a good read and I admire the dedication to your art. Wow! I can’t pretend I followed all the info on the algorithms, but I would buy it and trust you on it.
Init – I would like to see this appear each week. Cappos probably is the best home for it.
Cheers GP, yeah that was my gut feel. If it accompanied Kop’s lengthy Tips the poor lad would literally be working 24/7
Wow, this match was completely destroyed by the ref. I am happy I capped Ronaldo, don’t get me wrong. But this is bloody annoying.
Really bad decision for Ronaldo’s second.
Dude there were like 5 bad decisions against Bayern.
Lewan was 1 on 1 with the goalie and the ref whistled for offisde while it was not. Would have been 0-2, which would have changed the dynamic of the game.
The 2-2 was very far offside.
The 3-2 was offside but the asistent was not fast enough and didn’t see it. Also the ref blocked 2 Bayern players that by doing so couldn’t stop Marcello. (just insane)
Lastly Vidal got a red card for a perfect tackle on the ball (his second yellow) while Casemiro (or whatever he is called, hehe) should have had a second yellow on 3 occassions (causing penalty, offense on Robben and one other thing).
If I was Bayern supporter I would be so pissed right now.
Only saw this once but didn’t Ronnie also use his arm for his second? Looked like it from what I saw.
I thought that too. If so, a double whammy.
There were Raz but that one decision was so critical to the result.
Fck Bayern! Adios
It’s always bad when after a game you talk about the ref and not the game. Extra time and 4-2 would suggest a super fun game. He completely killed all of that. So many bad decisions.
Speak for yourself, I celebrated all them bad calls. #HalaMadrid
Atletico or Juve will get their scalp, don’t worry 😉 !
Hi guys!
Need some help – had a horrendous GW 33 with 33 points
Grant/ Foster
Alonso/Pieters/Bailly/Chambers/Ben Mee
Joshua King/Siggy/Ali/Eriksen/Pedro
Costa/Lukaku/Ibra
Have 1 FT and keeping an eye on the big dgw 37.
Any thoughts?
lsd, do you still have your WC?
Hi Cookie, unfortunately not….
OK lsd, similar position to myself then and GP and a few others….
Looking at your team, I would probably sell Costa for Benteke or Negredo, and then look to get Gabbiadini for GW35.
Thanks Cookie!