FPL Fixtures Analysis Gameweek 4 2016-17
Welcome to FPL Fixtures Analysis Gameweek 4 2016-17. Welcome, welcome, welcome to our fixture analysis for the week! The first three weeks of the season are in the books and the transfer window has slammed shut until January. All was right in the world, and then… the first of many annoying international breaks. Surely planned for no purpose other than to simply to frustrate us. The footballers themselves seem to enjoy it but to the clubs, their fans and, most importantly, the fantasy football managers these matches are nothing but a chance for their players to get injured and suffer jetlag ahead of week 4.
Did your players survive? Did you survive? For many of us this international lull has been a time of fantasy introspection. ‘To wildcard or not to wildcard’ as the Bard once famously put it. Some of us planned our teams for the first three weeks and hit the wildcard button just as planned and full of confidence, while others have tossed and turned through the night debating the choice.
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Fixture Tracker – the next 6 games
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FAVOURABLE FIXTURES
Everton – Sunderland (a), Middlesbrough (h), Bournemouth (a)
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[/three_fourth]Transfer deadline day came and went and Everton managed to ward off interest in Romelu Lukaku.
They also addressed their most pressing need: a viable backup for the streaky Lukaku. The arrival of Enner Valencia will not set the league on fire but it will give Ronald Koeman options when Lukaku enters one of his inevitable goal droughts.
The league bestowed on Everton a kind set of opening fixtures and they have certainly taken advantage. The Toffees look poised to continue their hot start with three very winnable fixtures on the horizon. A trip to Sunderland (one point from three) could well be their most difficult test over the next month. Last season was a rollercoaster affair, with the teams combining to net 11 goals the two times they met.
Their next foe, newly promoted Middlesbrough, will likely park the bus and play for a point at Goodison Park as they attempt to survive their first season back in the big time. Relegation fodder Bournemouth are likely to employ the same strategy, but we fancy Everton have enough class to overcome both teams. Adding Lukaku, Ross Barkley or Leighton Baines could pay dividends over the next several weeks.
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Arsenal – Southampton (h), Hull (a), Chelsea (h)
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[/three_fourth]Stop the press! Arsenal finally bought the striker and central defender they have needed for the last three seasons. You can debate whether the players are a perfect fit for Arsene Wenger’s system, or whether they are a notable upgrade from the players already on the roster, but they finally have the depth that would have seen them mount a legitimate challenge for the title last season. Better late than never, we guess.
The arrival of Lucas Perez will push Olivier Giroud and means Sanchez can return out wide where his game is better, and the arrival of defender Shkodran Mustafi means Arsenal now have a player whose name will never be spelled correctly. One can only hope Arsenal fans will serenade him with The Circle of Life when he opens his Arsenal account.
Looking at their upcoming fixtures the Chelsea game looms on the horizon, but facing Burnley and Swansea in the following weeks make Arsenal a team you should invest in over the next five weeks. Alexis Sanchez is the obvious attacking choice, but a punt on Mesut Ozil, Santi Cazorla or even Theo Walcott could see you climb in the rankings.
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Tottenham – Stoke (a), Sunderland (h), Middlesbrough (a)
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[/three_fourth]Tottenham have negotiated a tricky opening trio of games and have five points to show for it. Fans should be satisfied with draws against Everton and Liverpool, and a hard fought victory over Crystal Palace. Most importantly, they sit one point ahead of Arsenal. For now.
The deadline day acquisitions of midfielders Moussa Sissoko and Georges-Kevin N’Koudou beef up Spurs strength in depth, while an early season goal from Erik Lamela has reminded people that he plays for Spurs. With the defence fit, boss Samwise Gamgee’s most pressing issue now is figuring out why his striker seems to have lost his nose for scoring. Speaking of slow starts, Pochewotsit’s have failed to find the back of the net in the first-half this season.
Their next three matches should see that change though. A trip to Orc Arena could prove challenging as Stoke attempt to avoid relegation but Spurs are talented enough to overcome such thuggery. Sunderland and Middlesbrough are likely to pose much less of a threat. The problem with exploiting their fixtures is figuring out who will score their goals.
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WORTH A LOOK…
Crystal Palace – Middlesbrough (a), Stoke (h), Sunderland (a)
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[/three_fourth]Continuing the trend of picking teams that play Middlesbrough, Stoke and/or Sunderland, we present to you Crystal Palace for your consideration. The arrival of strikers Loic Remy and Christian Benteke finally give the Eagles legitimate scoring options, and keeping hold of Wilfried Zaha has shown that the owners are keen to improve on last season’s 15th place finish.
Despite a rough start that has seen them drop two of their opening three fixtures, Alan Pardew’s men will fancy their prospects for points in the next month. The Middlesbrough-Stoke-Sunderland axis has surrendered a total of 13 goals thus far. Just what the doctor ordered. It may take him a bit to acclimatise himself but we think Palace’s next three opponents make Benteke one to watch in the coming weeks.
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BE WARY OF…
Swansea – Chelsea (h), Southampton (a), Manchester City (h)
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[/three_fourth]We realize you likely do not have any Swansea coverage in your team, but our job is to make sure of that. It isn’t that Swansea are that bad, they just have a brutal schedule over the next month. And they are just bad. A quick check of their roster confirms Gylfi Sigurdsson does still play for the team. Unfortunately, no one else of note does. Poor Siggy. Where is Michu when you need him?
If the prospects of Chelsea and City are not enough to scare you off, they face Liverpool and Arsenal after that. It realistically could be the end of October before Swansea win another match. Stay far away until then.
Well that is it for me this week lads and lasses. As always, I enjoyed out time together and appreciate your reading this article. Best of luck to you all in the coming weeks. Cheers!
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Thanks for reading FPL Fixtures Analysis Gameweek 4 2016-17. This article was written by LawDogg
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Morning all! Fixtures for GW4 is live and thanks to the lesser-spotted Lawdogg for a great rundown on who to follow….and Swansea!
Thanks Lawdogg – cracking article mate.
Many thanks Cookie – enjoyed writing it.
Good info..thanks
Looking at player prices at FPL statistics and noticed that if a players price increases then the amount of new purchases to trigger the next rise is huge. Fer is 88643,Jakopovic is 87449,Macauley 85615 and others likewise. It was never at those levels last year,so whats changed?
I don’t recall the price increases being markedly less last season, but I could easily be wrong.
FPL do make changes to the calculations, but the biggest of these was previous when they stopped counting Wild Card transfers.
To increase +0.1 requires about +45,000, to increase again in the same gameweek needs another double that =total +130,000 to increase 0.3 in one week then needs almost +300,000 total. Dropping is similar. There are also % ownership, not playing, & injured modifications.
Being injury red flag does x2.5 to drop 0.1
Excess transfers are, partially, carried into next game week. When the calcs start again. This is why you see quite a few +0.1 happen on the first matchday even when a player doesn’t score much. Its carry overs from last week rather than new activity.
When thinking TV+ using WC trying get +0.2 out of a player in one week and transferring them back out its too rare to be worth bothering with. The need is to buy trend players who will perform the week after as well to keep the price shifting, & once they hit the top points for their price band/position people will buy them just for that.
Hi Kruz
I never pay attention to price rises and how they come about. I’m not convinced anyone has a grasp on the algorithms to be honest. Hardly an exact art.
Sorry, I wasn’t much use in answering that was I?
Hey all, great article Lawdogg.
What does the personal hearing mean for Gray re: finding out his fate?
Just means they will give him a future date to attend, probably next week, after which they will announce his punishment.
So he’ll likely be able to play this weekend? Interesting twist for my fantasy team haha
He’ll certainly be available if his hearing date is not before the game.
Great stuff Aaron, many thanks.
Any thoughts on this plan anyone?
GW4 – Defoe and Sanchez in for Kun and Mahrez
GW5 – Sterling in Redmond
GW6 – Kun in for Vardy
Allows a significant midfield upgrade whilst using the Kun money and still putting him back in and all with no hits. Defoe could be him or anyone cheaper.
Looks and sounds good Init. Is there anyway you can do it by actually selling Redmond? You said Red but sold Townsend.
While I have you, do you think Everton cover is necessary for these fixtures or will we be alright without any?
Sorry no, I meant to write Townsend. Probably just wishful thinking.
Not sure on Everton. As Aaron alluded to you’re looking at a decent bunch of fixtures there but also ones in which the opposition will set up tight.
Pity, but moves look good otherwise mate.
Yeah I was thinking that I just have a strange feeling Everton are going to screw people over in these next few matches. Whether that’s by not having them or by having them. Might just stick with Williams as my only cover.
Init,
In theory that sounds just the ticket and I’d definitely feel fine rolling with Defoe there. Having both Aguero and Sterling for future weeks appeals also.
The WHU fixtures and impending return of Payet (read Bilic speaking really positively on him yesterday) has me rethinking my Kun strategy.
A well thought out plan – I like it. I’m hoping Gray survives at least this week as I’ve already used by 2 transfers, but I fancy Defoe to replace him if/when he gets banned.
Lawdogg,
Great rundown on fixtures mate. Really enjoyed that – unsurprisingly I have no Swansea in my WC squad but I’m glad you’re here just to keep me straight in any event.
Lovely write-up. Thank you sir. :ok:
Appreciate it mate. Cheers. How is your WC team coming along? Trying to resist the temptation to play mine.