FPL Fixtures Analysis Gameweek 5

FPL Fixtures Analysis Gameweek 5 2016-17

Welcome to FPL Fixtures Analysis Gameweek 5 2016-17.
There’s a great Louis CK bit at the beginning of one of his specials where he acknowledges that he has trouble knowing what to say to start his show. It’s tough. Too much preamble and it sounds forced, but not enough banter at the top makes it look like you just don’t care about proper etiquette as you talk to your audience. I kind of wanted to get this intro right because it’s a huge shift for me on this site. Starting this round, I’ll be taking over the Fixtures article on a weekly basis.

I know, right? What does the MLS guy know about tracking and predicting Premier League fixtures? Well I know more than some and less than others, but I’m punctual in writing articles and I’m fanatical about watching live games, so I guess I was a good fit. If you think I’m any good in this capacity, you can steer your team in the direction I’m pointing. If you think I’m absolute rubbish, then you’ll know to automatically pick against me. Either way, we all win.

Now that we have that out of the way, it seems to me that picking fixtures at all is a bit of a fool’s errand this year. Honestly, as I was sitting down to study stats and results over the weekend it became pretty clear that many results would’ve been just as accurately predicted with a coin toss as opposed to study. In GW1 through GW3 the away teams won just as many times as the home teams with 11 wins each (for the mathematically challenged, the other 8 fixtures ended in a draw). And in GW4 (with the Everton game still yet to be played as of the writing of this article), another 4 wins were tallied by away teams with only 3 home teams winning over the weekend.

So what does this mean? It means that I have an excuse if my picks go south, let’s get that out of the way quickly. But it also means that possibly some of the new money in the league is creating a bit more parity than we’ve seen in the past. Sure, the big teams are still at the top of the table – but the waters have been sufficiently muddied this year, and I think it makes for great viewing.

So was that too much preamble? Let’s just get to the picks.

The Tracker in full…

Top 3 Best Bets
#1) Everton – MID (H), BOU (A), CRY (H)
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Full disclosure: I’m a huge Everton fan, so I’ll always try to find the best possible lens with which to view my beloved team. But this week, I don’t need a special lens with which to view my team, they’re actually primed to go up against lesser competition and have a pair of home fixtures over their next three to boot. And are of course showing some fine form.

Looking at their competition we see Middlesbrough trying their absolute hardest to be a middle of the table team this year – they’re not horrible, but they’re nothing special either. The only win Middlesbrough have this year came on the road to Sunderland; but let’s face it, Sunderland are in the relegation zone for a reason, and that win doesn’t prove much. Moving to Bournemouth, we see that they’re one of a handful of teams that aren’t averaging even a goal a game yet this year, so the fact that they’re in the bottom half isn’t all that surprising. Palace could shape up to be a bit of a challenge if their new attack continues to jell, but as of now, they’re not much to worry about for the better staffed Toffees.

All of Everton’s next opponents are averaging a goal or more allowed per match, so investing in Everton attack isn’t a horrible idea. In fact after tonight’s sudden awakening of a certain sleeping giant then it may be a high priority for some.

#2) Watford – MUN (H), BUR (A), BOU (H)
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Stay with me here, because right off the bat many people will be thinking that Watford should be disqualified here in this spot because of the Man U game. And maybe that’s fair, but there are merits to this placement – at least if you’re looking to pick up on the Watford attack (because nobody should be liking them for their defensive prowess). But let’s be honest, it’s very tough to find a run of 3 fixtures that is absolutely perfect for a team – but like they say, 2 out of 3 ain’t bad.

Glancing over the Man U game, it’s the Burnley and Bournemouth fixtures that really making picking up the Watford attack more enticing. At the very least, we’ll all probably start by moving Capoue from the bench to the pitch… This pick essentially boils down to the fact that Watford are leading the league in shots converted at 18.4%. They may not have the massive shot volume of some of the other teams, but they’re converting at a stellar percentage this year, and it can’t be overlooked. So as to keep this a fixtures article and not a tips article, we have to look at why this stat applies to the second and third games while also making the attacking options from Watford so critical.

Burnley and Bournemouth have conceded 40 and 39 shots from inside the box respectively this year – for perspective, Stoke are the worst team at 42 shots conceded from inside the box. So they’re both pretty awful in this respect. Pairing the porous nature of the two defenses and combining them with Watford’s best-in-class accuracy should make for a couple of big gains for both club and fantasy owners. And who knows, the way this season is going, and based on Watford’s big explosion last round, maybe starting a Watford attacker against Man U isn’t the worst idea in the world either.

#3) Man City – BOU (H), SWA (A), TOT (A)
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Looking at the table, this last choice was essentially down to either Man City or Tottenham, and by default I decided to give the nod to the first place team in the league. Man City are a juggernaut of offense so far this year – they’ve yet to be denied less than two goals in any match this season. So really, when this team goes up against, well, anybody, the fixture is favorable.

I don’t need to beat up on Bournemouth anymore here, so the advice from the last section also applies here (as an aside, Man City are 3rd in the league in shots converted). But further carrying our theme over from above, Swansea are the second worst team in the league at conceding shots from inside the box with 41 – so City are going to have a pretty easy time taking their shots in both of these first two fixtures. And if the data holds up, they should hold to their 2+ goal average per game without much trouble for the next couple of rounds.

The Tottenham game away should give people a bit of pause since the Spurs have proven to be one of the stingiest defenses in the league this year. But unlike buying Watford, for example, owning a player from Man City is typically a longer term investment that can withstand a troubling fixture much more easily. Either way, 7 points from the next three fixtures are certainly achievable for City, and 9 points aren’t out of the question by any stretch.

Teams To Avoid

Bournemouth – MCI (A), EVE (H), WAT (A)
OK, I’m really not trying to pick on them anymore, but it should be noted that all of the teams I selected above all have Bournemouth in common as one of their matches. Simply put, they’re going to be overmatched for much of this next stretch and should be avoided in all areas of fantasy play. They’re not proficient scorers and they’re not so good at keeping opposing offenses away. In all honesty though, the only players this run of fixtures will affect will be Boruc owners; the Bournemouth keeper tops the team’s ‘selected by’ percentage at 5.0%. Even as your backup keeper, he won’t be much use to you for this stretch.

Hull City – ARS (A), LIV (H), CHE (A)
Oof. It seems like everybody has at least flirted with the idea of having a Hull City fantasy darling on their squad at one point or another – but this isn’t the time to take a flier on a cheap mid or forward option for this team. On the surface, at least by name recognition, this is probably the worst 3-game stretch that any club has coming up over the next several weeks. Each of these three opponents that Hull will be facing have had their blunders: Arsenal giving up 4 at home to Liverpool, Liverpool losing 0-2 to Burnley and Chelsea drawing to Swansea. But really, even if Hull do luck out and get a positive result in a flukey game against one of these three, the chances that they can do it more than once is slim to none. Best to avoid picking these guys up any time soon.

Stoke – CRY (A), WBA (H), MU (A)
This is just stating the obvious, but Stoke are really really bad this year. On paper, they have mid-table talent, but they’re playing like a club that’s looking for the glory of one day winning the Championship. Any team in the league right now has to be chomping at the bit to play Stoke – they’ve conceded a league leading 10 goals, and they’re league worst in goals forward with 2. A pair of away games to Crystal and Man U isn’t doing Stoke any favors, and hosting West Brom is going to be a challenge because even though they rarely score, West Brom also rarely concede. It’s no stretch to think that Stoke’s goal differential could go from -8 to -14 by the time this run has concluded.

One Week Punt
Leicester – BUR (H)
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This week I’m going to highlight Leicester because I think that most football fans are educated enough to know that it’s equally likely this team is going through a rough patch as opposed to being fundamentally broken. As fantasy players we have short memories – never mind that they won the entire league last year, what have they done for me lately? And it’s true, Leicester have underperformed.

This week though, you have to love their matchup. If you’re holding onto Vardy or Mahrez, don’t rage sell quite yet, give it one more chance. We touched on Burnley above, and we know that they give up shots. What you probably have missed this season is that Leicester are tied with Man City for big chances created with 11. Man City have converted their chances for the most part, Leicester have not. But the fact that this team is still just as creative as the league leaders should be encouraging. If they start to convert these chances, they’ll be dangerous – and viable in fantasy – once again.

Thanks for reading FPL Fixtures Analysis Gameweek 5 2016-17. This article was written by Guy Sanchez

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