FPL Fixtures Analysis Gameweek 6

FPL Fixtures Analysis Gameweek 5 2016-17

Welcome to FPL Fixtures Analysis Gameweek 6
I have to admit, I was a bit nervous putting out last week’s article. Not only did I make the rookie mistake of making Everton my top pick (as a homer, I could’ve at least put them at #3), but I also made Watford my second pick, even though they had to face Man Utd over the weekend. Was I surprised that both teams had the ability to win 3-1 over their opponents? Not really. Am I ashamed that this is a bit of a humble brag? A little bit, but I’ll manage that shame with a grin.

There are a lot of moving pieces in play this week. The template team isn’t so much of a template anymore, and it seems like everybody has a strong opinion of who is or isn’t really a ‘must have’. And quickly people are turning their backs on players that were just recently considered start-to-finish caliber players. There are riots in the streets between fantasy players arguing if any Chelsea coverage is even necessary at this point (I made that up, but there are very terse discussions taking place). There are family dinners being torn apart arguing about Watford really finishing as a top half side, and whether or not Capoue is the ‘New Mahrez’. And when I see this madness all around me, I’m glad I got the Fixtures article. Stats, form and predicted performances…it’s an oasis of sanity in this crazy game.

With that said, I’ll give you a spoiler and say that I have West Ham as one of the Best Bets. Maybe this madness has crept in to my article as well?
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The Tracker in full…

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Top 3 Best Bets
#1A) Everton – BOU (A), CRY (H), MCI (A)
#1B) Watford – BUR (A), BOU (H), MID (A)
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So as to introduce a couple of new teams to the mix this week, I’ve decided to combine these two carryovers from last week. And why wouldn’t these two teams be included once again? Without rehashing every talking point about these two teams from the last article, I think we can just briefly touch on why they’re still relevant moving forward.

Everton may or may not be as good as advertised when all is said and done, but they have at least turned the corner this year in being a ‘larger’ club that can take advantage of their matches against lesser competition. For at least the next two rounds, that’s exactly what Everton will be facing – lesser competition. Their first match against Bournemouth sees them play a club with a -6 goal differential that are just outside of the relegation zone by a point, and their match against Crystal Palace should be very manageable considering they’re at home. Palace have made strides in recent weeks, but they’ve come at the expense of other truly bad clubs (let’s face it, putting 4 goals on Stoke is almost expected from clubs now). The real test for Everton will be in three rounds time when they take on first place Man City – but you can decide whether or not to keep your Everton attack when we get to GW8; for now though, Everton players from your squad need to be started.

Even with the surprise of seeing Everton in second place through this first stage of the season, the biggest surprise has to be Watford playing on the level that they are. Watford had a rough set of games against Chelsea and Arsenal early on – but they didn’t fail to score in either of those matches, and they haven’t been shut out of any match so far this season. So their attacking prospects look even better considering their next three matches come against clubs that are all bottom half in the table, and all have negative goal differentials. In fact, Watford are the only club listed in our fixtures table that have all green markers over their next three matches. Their key stat from last week was their shots converted percentage – and that stat was only further improved coming off their 3-1 win against Man Utd this past week. Watford remain first in the league in this stat, converting 20.8% of their shots into goals (Man City are still second with 17% converted). Maybe Watford aren’t peppering the keeper with as many attempts as other clubs, but they’ve made this calculated approach to scoring goals really work in their favor. Their attack deserves a spot in your starting roster this week. The defence? You can avoid them until they show a bit more cohesiveness.

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#2) Liverpool – HUL (H), SWA (A), MUN (H)
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Liverpool have had one major blunder this year, and it’s been hard to forgive them for it – their only loss on the year gave Burnley their only win. It’s seems like everybody has been able to bat Burnley around and get at least a point from them, but Liverpool lost to them 2-0 in the second week of the year. Yet aside from that, Liverpool have been pretty spotless. It’s actually pretty remarkable when you consider that Liverpool have already secured victories over Arsenal, Leicester and Chelsea while taking a point against Tottenham. And this run of form is even more impressive considering that Liverpool have only played once at home in that entire stretch.

So can we forgive them for the Burnley loss? In terms of fantasy, it’s easier to forgive Liverpool for that loss than it is to forgive them for splitting their 11 goals on the year between 7 different players (and none of those goals came from the forward position). Some teams have a very focused attack, and others have a more balanced approach. Liverpool tend to fall into the latter this year with the way they’ve distributed their scoring. But just because the goals are coming from multiple sources doesn’t mean you can afford to completely dismiss buying up some of their attack either.

Liverpool’s 11 goals are good for 3rd highest in the league behind Man City (15) and Arsenal (12), and they’re also in top 3 with shots on target. This is all good news when you consider that their first two opponents listed are worst in the league in conceding shots from inside the box – Hull have conceded 55 and Swansea have conceded 54. When it comes to the Man Utd game, you can’t completely discount Liverpool in that fixture either. Like I said, Liverpool have no problem bringing down the name-brand competition, and Man Utd have recently proven that they’re not bulletproof.

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#3) West Ham – SOU (H), MID (H), CRY (A), SUN (H)
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Ok, I’m being serious here – I’m including West Ham in this conversation purely based on the fixtures. If you’ll notice, I added a fourth fixture here to help augment my case for them just a bit. And the reason is pretty obvious – West Ham have 3 of their next 4 fixtures at home. And on paper, each of their home games should give them ample opportunity to get some points back from what has been a disastrous couple of weeks.

So let’s not sugarcoat the issue with West Ham, the truth is that they’ve conceded 8 goals over the past two matches, and have lost 4 of their first 5 fixtures to start the year. In all honesty though, the first three fixtures of the year went pretty much to script for West Ham; we all kind of suspected they would lose to Chelsea and Man City, yet they were good enough to beat Bournemouth in a shutout victory. It’s the last two weeks that have been the issue. In retrospect losing 2-4 to Watford isn’t so egregious because Watford have proven themselves to be a decent team (but still…conceding 4 goals?). And this past weekend, again, losing 2-4 on the road against West Brom was not anticipated.

So let’s just state the obvious and say that you should avoid investing in the West Ham defence until they clear that up. But their attack isn’t bad, and it does merit a second look. In fact, it could be argued that West Ham playing from behind every game is only going to favor the attack because they’ll feel that they have to outpace their opponent’s scoring by larger margins. Also, let’s not forget, this side still has Michail Antonio who is tied now only with Diego Costa for the league lead in goals scored (5), and they still have Payet who is only tied with De Bruyne for the league lead in assists (4).

The attack for West Ham is in place, and they’ll look to put that to good use with all of their home fixtures coming up. As of right now, all three of their opponents coming up at home are all sitting on negative goal differentials, and none of the three have more than a single win to start the year either. Given that kind of an even playing field with the added bonus of staying at home, I like West Ham to continue to produce goals for owners willing to take the chance on them.

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Teams To Avoid
Middlesbrough – TOT (H), WHU (A), WAT (H)
Negredo may found his way into many squads given his favorable price, but on the whole, this is going to be a tough stretch for this side – so maybe it’s for the best that people have stayed off investing more into this club. Not even their two home fixtures here are going to be very favorable; Tottenham have proven to be the stingiest of defences this year and Watford aren’t a pushover. The only ‘bright spot’ in this run may be the West Ham fixture…but as you’ve just read, I think West Ham are likely to get a few things back on track while at home.

Swansea – MCI (H), LIV (H), ARS (A)
Last week, Hull City had the worst run of 3 fixtures coming up – this week Swansea take their place. Not even back to back home fixtures is going to make this schedule any less painful for the Swans. Swansea have only converted 6.3% of their shots into goals – which is third worst in the league. With those kind of numbers, it’s hard to see where this club is even going to get a draw in this run. On paper, there are 3 straight losses coming up for the team in white.

Hull City – LIV (A), CHE (H), BOU (A)
Even though they don’t have the worst three fixtures in a row coming up anymore, they still have a very tough pair to navigate. Hull have conceded more shots than any other team in the league this year, and going up against the likes of Liverpool and Chelsea isn’t going to do them any favors. Best to avoid this squad until the big matches have passed.

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One Week Punt
West Brom – STK (A)
Boy, Stoke are really bad this year. Last week I said that Stoke could be at a -14 goal differential in three weeks time – then they went and conceded 4 this past week and are already at -11GD going into this week. So that’s all good news for West Brom, right? Now that Chadli has shown that there are ways for West Brom to score goals, there’s no doubt that Stoke will be in some serious trouble if WBA come out and play that same type of ball again this weekend. In life it’s not acceptable to kick ‘em while they’re down. But this is fantasy – so have at it.

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Thanks for reading FPL Fixtures Analysis Gameweek 6 2016-17. This article was written by Guy Sanchez

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