FPL Fixtures Analysis Gameweek 7

FPL Fixtures Analysis Gameweek 7 2016-17

Welcome to FPL Fixtures Analysis Gameweek 7. It’s really tough to write an article following a week when things just didn’t quite go to script. I mean, who are we kidding here? Did we think that Man City would win away to Swansea? Yeah, of course. But did you think that Everton would get blanked against Bournemouth? Did anybody think that Liverpool would somehow manage to score 5 goals with seemingly 8 different goalscorers (not one of them named Firmino)? And how about West Ham? Surely with all of that talent they could’ve put forth at least a single goal? Nah, sorry.

And after all of that disappointment, we just start again. It’s kind of what makes fantasy football the best hobby in the world, isn’t it? We just start again, maybe with a bit more wisdom and some skepticism about these teams and players we’re going to bring onto our rosters. Maybe you got burned last week. It happens. Time to pick a better player in a better fixture and get it all back.

You’ll notice that our fixture tracker looks a bit fuller this week with advanced preparation for the international breaks on the horizon. I’m not sure how you all rate international breaks in your preparation, but it has to figure into your plans somewhat based on certain teams having more of a national team contingent than others. Well, maybe the really advanced players are worried about international breaks. I’m just trying to put out a better article this week that doesn’t try to convince our readers to buy West Ham players (sorry about that, by the way). So here’s what I got this week:
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The Tracker in full…

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Top 3 Best Bets
#1) Arsenal – BUR (A), SWA (H), MID (H)
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It’s a bit scary to think about how good Arsenal might really be if they could just stay healthy. I’m sure everybody has their opinion on Wenger and his tactics and his use of budget (or lack thereof). But despite all of that, Sanchez and Ozil are really probably sufficient when the team around them is fit and functional. The media gets stuck in such a rut about how the squad continually need to add players to reach the next level – and maybe they do. But perhaps just for now, we can enjoy the fantasy points this team brings in just on the merit of their relative health?

So what has all of this fitness afforded them? First off, let me deflate my praise for them a bit to say that Arsenal have just been capable in defence, allowing 7 goals through 6 games. And in that sense, even if they’re not top in the league in defensive categories, we can all at least agree that they’re not a liability either. But Arsenal really distinguish themselves in attack, and this stretch of games is going to be perfect to push their numbers even higher in that sense. Arsenal are now just behind Watford in goal conversion percentage at 17.2%, and this is really striking considering that Arsenal have nearly double Watford’s attempts on goal. Maybe the most impressive element in that stat is that Arsenal also have had 7 different goal scorers to start the year, so their success, unlike some other teams, isn’t really as dependent on a single player producing all of their offense for them.

Their next three opponents, Burnley, Swansea and Middlesbrough, collectively round out ranks 15-17 in the PL table. In my mind, there’s no team that has a better chance of getting a full 9 points in their next three matches than Arsenal right now. If you can think of a defensive category, chances are these three opponents are in the bottom half of the stats; everything from set plays conceded, shots from inside the box conceded, goals conceded… whatever it is, you’re not going to find something positive about Burnley, Swansea or Middlesbrough to make you think that any of these teams have a chance to take a point from Arsenal in the coming weeks.

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#2) Watford – BOU (H), MID (A), SWA (A)
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Full disclosure: I had to write this article before Watford play against Burnley to round out GW6. Although, unless Watford lose by more than 2 or 3 goals in that game, it would be hard to change my opinion on their upcoming fixtures.

Like I mentioned above, Watford are still the league leaders in converting goals percentage (20.8%), and until they really start to slow down or simply play outside of that structure, there’s no reason to think that they don’t have a good chance at points on any given weekend. It’s not a conventional attack that they have, nor is it a high volume offence that they run, but it’s working for them all the same.

For opponents, the same criticisms of Middlesbrough and Swansea applies from above. Bournemouth did pull out a shutout win this past weekend, but their goal differential is still tied for fourth worst at -5. They’re nothing special and they’re especially poor on the road. Do I expect 9 points from Watford over this stretch? That’s a tough prediction to give with a pair of road fixtures. But I would say that a pair of wins and a draw are completely plausible.

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#3) Liverpool – SWA (A), MUN (H), WBA (H)
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With their goal explosion this last weekend, Liverpool have moved up to be second in the league in goals scored. Now as to which midfielder is going to score from week to week? Well that a different article – and I’m sure that my guess is just as bad as yours anyway. Fun fact: like Arsenal, Liverpool also have 7 different goal scorers on the year – and like Arsenal, none of those scorers have been forwards. The simple truth is that Liverpool are on the goals and their offense simply can’t be discounted – the level of goalscoring that they’re producing means that they have a chance in every game they’re in. And that makes fixtures analysis much easier, if I do say so myself.

Swansea and West Brom are the easiest of the bunch for Liverpool here, and neither really seem to be equipped to deal with the caliber of attack that Liverpool currently possess. The Man U fixture should be interesting, and it could be a high mark for scoring if both defences continue to be suspect.

And the important thing to remember is that Liverpool aren’t really about defence this year, they look more willing to just try to outscore their opponents. In the top half of the league, Liverpool are tied with Chelsea on 9 goals allowed so far this year, so they’re certainly behind the defensive curve in that respect. But even with that penchant for allowing goals, they’ve done so well for themselves that they’re still sitting on +7GD, which is tied for third best in the league.

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Teams to Avoid
#1) Swansea – LIV (H), ARS (A), WAT (H)
Even with a pair of home fixtures over their next three, it’s going to be a tough go for the Swans. Given the way Liverpool are firing, coupled with how Swansea handled Man City this past week, it looks like this squad just doesn’t have anything to offer up against bigger competition. Swansea have just 5 goals on the year…and 3 of those goals have come from Leroy Fer. So without the added balanced attack like those of the better clubs, it’s hard to think that defences won’t just key in on Swansea’s main man and leave the rest of the squad to try to figure things out for themselves. With such limited options available to them, it’s hard to see Swansea pulling many points from this run.

#2) Burnley – ARS (H), SOU (A), EVE (H)
It’s almost cliche to say that Burnley have a hard run of fixtures coming up. Every run of fixtures are going to be hard when you’re a club that’s only scored 3 goals on the year (worst in the league). It will be interesting to see how the team copes with losing Andre Gray to suspension – but at least the suspension finally happened. Once Gray is back and the dark cloud has moved on, maybe then this team will get an identity to them and start to challenge for points in games. But until then? Burnley will just continue to be cannon fodder for teams looking to get some easy points in the schedule.

#3) Crystal Palace – EVE (A), WHU (H), LEI (A)
Crystal Palace have done well for themselves in winning their last three fixtures against three teams they absolutely should have beaten (victories over Middlesbrough, Stoke and Sunderland). And in time, nobody will remember that Palace barely nudged out the win over Sunderland with a last-gasp header. All people will remember is David Moyes face breaking at the seams and the fact that Palace neatly wrapped up the 3 points. Undoubtedly, Palace have shown that they’re a decent club – not elite, but decent. And in this stretch of games highlighted, they should probably get a win over West Ham if their pattern continues. The problem is going to be against Everton and Leicester. Palace have done a commendable job getting in victories over smaller clubs, but their only real test this year has been against Tottenham (a match they lost 1-0). Until Palace start taking on better equipped clubs, it’s hard to endorse them in this spot.

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One Week Punt
Sunderland – WBA (H)
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I know, I know. Sunderland? Last place Sunderland? Yeah…. But stay with me here. Obviously, anybody who watched that Sunderland v Crystal Palace match can feel absolutely gutted for Sunderland. They didn’t deserve that result – but then again, they kind of did, you know? What it showed though was that, in flashes, Sunderland do have potential to get some positive traction and some results.

So this one week punt is more of a ‘rolling punt’ based on their fixtures. If they do well against West Brom (it is possible), then you can maybe roll that into their next game against Stoke. And if that goes well? Roll it again into the next game against West Ham.

Look I get it, this is some real bottom of the barrel stuff here. But if this were any other team with these three fixtures, we’d have them up as one of the best bets. But this is Sunderland, so they just get a provisional endorsement while the relegation teams attempt to climb out over each other.

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Thanks for reading FPL Fixtures Analysis Gameweek 7 2016-17. This article was written by Guy Sanchez

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