FPL Now What? Gameweek 3

FPL Now What? Gameweek 3

Welcome to FPL Now What? Gameweek 3

A route from the mud for Gameweek 3

The dust has settled on Gameweek 2 – and a fortnight in, it’s all boiled down to this: Your actual squad. Those first couple of hauls. That starting rank. And love it or hate it, it’s the initial shape of your 2023-24 Fantasy Premier League season. Welcome to Second Thoughts United.

Fact is, uncertainty abounds in the game’s early stages, and no surprise. With nothing driving decisions but last year’s numbers, some pre-season action, a ton of YouTube content and the Twitter hype-machine, the opening weeks are inherently well-informed rolls of the dice – and like all gambles, they often go sideways.

Take heart! Many mangers with much worse starts than yours have eventually faired much better. Counterintuitive as it sounds, rank doesn’t matter that much at the beginning of the season. That’s not to say that it doesn’t matter at all – just that it doesn’t matter as much as you think. Hear me out…

Try to imagine your first four game weeks (up to the first international break) as an extension to the pre-season; a glorified eye-test, if you will. Now, divide that into two halves, where GW1 + GW2 produces an aggregate score with a net rank, and GW3 + GW4 are the two weeks to react to what you’ve witnessed and (the albeit small sample size of) early data. This is a crucial time in your squad’s evolution because that’s when the game really begins, as the field starts to spreads between the -8 pointers, -4 pointers, 1 free transfer and 2 free-transfer crowd. This is when you need to be the most empowered to make the best move(s). So don’t focus on rank – focus on what really matters right now: BALANCE & AGILITY. And it’s something that’s achievable with funds and free transfers.

“The optimal position for Gameweek 3 is having two free transfers and at least ₤1.0M in the bank.”

But that’s easier said than done – and two game weeks in, most of us have painted ourselves into one corner or another that makes this strategy challenging. Here are four of the common scenarios many managers have found themselves in, post-Gameweek 2, and how to wrestle back some control over your future moves:

AFC KNEEJERK

You were convinced Trent and his new haircut were going beast-mode, believed Pickford was a save-points cheat code, and started Darwin because “This will be his breakout season, I can feel it.”. And when you realized just how wrong you were, you took a -4 or -8 to make it right (because a GW2 Wild Card is just embarrassing). At this point, you probably have a low rank, a relatively promising squad on paper, one free transfer and (if you’re lucky) maybe ₤0.5M in the bank. THE MOVE: After taking an early points hit, it’s time to let Jesus (not Gabriel Jesus) take the wheel, and roll your next 2 transfers. By all means, make a single tweak in GW4 if it’s required but at this point, your best bet is returning from the International Break with a pair of free transfers to address new injuries and maybe half a million in the bank to hedge against price rises.

HAMSTRING FC

You confidently stacked your squad with old heroes and new hopefuls – Maybe De Bruyne or James, possibly young-gun Jurrien Timber, even a reinvigorated Mings in Emery’s new-look Villa. What could possibly go wrong? Well, everything, apparently – and insult to injury, you’re anxiously waiting for an update on Maddison, too. If your squad is that hobbled and you’ve resisted the urge to start taking hits, you probably have a free transfer, some money in the bank and a still a couple of disconcerting red / orange / yellow triangles on your squad list. THE MOVE: Consider the possible silver linings: With the KDB out, Foden and Alvarez suddenly look a little less vulnerable to rotation, Chilwell is arguably a better asset than James, and you can replace Mings with another Claret asset like Diaby or Watkins. Just remember, rank isn’t everything right now! Take a deep breath, rebuild one transfer, one game week at a time – and maybe start that bench differential you didn’t expect to field. You’re always better off taking a punt than taking a hit.

OLD NEWS ALBION

You blindly followed the Kane bandwagon all the way up until it slapped on German registration plates. You put your faith in Gabriel and his occasional rocket-headers, only to miss that crucial pre-deadline news, and you brought in Grealish because “he must be nailed, right?”. Sometimes the best laid plans simply aren’t. And unless you’re psychic, there was no way to know that Kane was finally going auf wiedersehen, Arsenal’s big man would have his first two non-starts in 110 years, and Jack-the-lad would start in exactly 50% of City’s opening fixtures. Transfers can be cruel. Tactical shifts even crueler. Pep Roulette the cruelest. THE MOVE: That sweet, sweet Kane money buys you a bit of agility, so you can get on with it and make a move or save your money, roll your transfer and see what the landscape looks like after the break. Sadly, it looks like we might be losing Gabriel to the Saudi Federation, which makes a sideways move to Saliba the best route into North London’s best defence. And not to beat the sky-blue drum but you can always replace Grealish with Foden, who’s flirting with a new renaissance in De Bruyne’s absence – but you probably don’t have to.

JOÃO UNITED

You’re one of over a quarter of managers who took a punt on Brighton’s record signing from the get-go, so you likely did one of three things: A) Absolutely stacked your midfield with top-shelf, kindly-priced assets for the mother of all 3-5-2s. B) Fielded a tactical midfield while leaving a small fortune in the bank, making you hyper-agile with routes to almost every player. C) Squeezed Salah into your draft from Day 1, at the slight cost of probably doing just Bruno or Rashford (not both) or just Saka or Martinelli (not both). If you backed Salah, your smugness from outscoring the GW2 Haaland captainers is probably offset by some disappointment over what you expected to be a much bigger haul – and with the tantalizing prospect of Bournemouth at home now in the rear-view mirror, the Egyptian King and his looming fixture run might not be instilling the same amount of confidence as it did a week ago; and the exact same can be said for Pedro. THE MOVE: Looks like that single investment in a woefully underachieving United might be a blessing in disguise. And with so many quality midfielders still priced temptingly low (despite a few price rises), this is a great time to consider cashing in Mo & João, letting Bruno or Rashy go for now, and spreading those funds across the squad with viable, firing assets. You’re probably not hurting for points or rank at this point, so a double transfer now or a couple of concurrent moves over the next two weeks makes a lot of sense – especially if you’re eyeing up an under-performing Chelsea’s incredible fixture swing.

Whatever your squad currently looks like, just remember that it’s a marathon, not a sprint! Or better still, it’s a 15-piece, 38-week puzzle where the pieces keep changing shape and colour. So pace yourself and try not to lose your head – you’ve still got 36 weeks to win the whole thing.

Thanks for reading FPL Now What? Gameweek 3

This article was written by Dylan Petley

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