TO HIT or NOT TO HIT – THE SEQUEL!
Welcome to TO HIT or NOT TO HIT – THE SEQUEL!. The last time we examined the ‘hit phenomenon’ was in the inaugural edition of everybody’s favourite Fantasy Football Magazine. Which was way back in GW30 of last season. And it’s fair to say that it garnered a great reaction, on many platforms. It sparked some very highbrow debates in fact, even on twitter! We shall come onto those later. Let’s begin with the basics though and tell you what we are going to examine in ‘THE SEQUEL’.
Let’s go very basic: he keeps saying ‘hits’, what the heck is he talking about? Well, a ‘hit’ is simply taking a -4 point deduction in order to bring in an additional player in any given gameweek, above your allocated free transfer(s). The theory is that it allows you to bring in additional players who you feel are worth it for that week, or future weeks. The reality is that they then have to outscore the outgoing player by 4 points just for you to break even on the deal. Which is the tricky bit in reality after the fantasy idea of it has worn off!
With that out the way let’s step it up a notch. Last time we did this I examined my own hits and whether they had worked out, on a base level at least. But last time it was GW30 and there was a bigger pool to look at. I’ve only taken 5 so far this time in the 14 weeks that have passed. We shall look at those 5, but only briefly. We shall then take a look at a renowned ‘hitter’. He’s become infamous on our website chat for his hit taking over the years and he’s also up to 11 of them already this season. The thing is, he also usually posts a great end of season rank.
We shall then go on to look at the hit habits of the top 20 teams in the rankings so far and then we shall talk a bit about Christmas (hits wise, not just tinsel!).
THE CHAOS THEORY
Let’s just get this out of the way at the offset as this is where it got a bit highbrow, but also ultimately unfathomable. When I looked at my hits and their point gains I did so in isolation of that particular gameweek. I presented a net score for all of those. And as it was it showed a net gain of 103 points over 14 hits in 30 weeks and a net gain of 13k in overall rankings, over the piece. What I didn’t take into consideration, mainly for the purposes of the readers boredom levels but also my own sanity, was the after effects of the hits. That is to say what did the players transferred both in and out then go on to score in subsequent weeks. True, that would give a better reflection overall of the hit and its effectiveness. The difficulty in extrapolating this is then the knock on effect of said hits on future transfers. Any transfer will affect your ability to make future ones and so if you did or didn’t make a move it becomes too hard to say how that would have impacted on future moves. Even as far as one week ahead. For example – if I didn’t take that hit last week then I would have a completely different bank balance and hence would choose to bring in Otamendi rather than say Sakho. Hence the chaos theory. It just can’t be analysed to that extent.
A TALE OF RESTRAINT
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1. I see an opportunity. A player hits form (best case scenario is two), I don’t own him / them and I have others who are clearly not on form. And their fixtures have to warrant it too, usually. You have to pass a lot of tests to join my hit club!
2. A top player suddenly returns from injury and I cannot fit him in. He still has to hit the above criteria. As do any others others joining in on the hit fun.
3. An injury or suspension crisis. I don’t make early transfers usually, 99% are done on Friday night ahead of Saturday, so I don’t often get caught out in this respect. And with a squad of 15 it’s very rare that this scenario comes into play.
As I say, I have taken 5 hits in 14 weeks, and I would suggest that is probably about average. And on a base level they haven’t actually worked out that well this time. Until you apply some chaos theory… Here are my ‘hit’ results so far –
– Total points IN from the players I have taken a hit for (that GW) are 48
– Total points OUT from the players leaving are 30
– Minus the 20 from the hits themselves and the net loss is -2!
However…
The majority of these hits took place between GW’s 8 and 11 and so I have taken a look at my rankings between those date points, and then also beyond, to satisfy the chaos theory. And low and behold it is quite telling. Between those GW’s I have taken 4 hits and basically transformed my team a bit, some would call it a mini wildcard. In GW8 I was sat in 258K. By the end of GW11 I had gone up to 51k. As we speak now I am up to 21k. So yes, the changes may not have paid off immediately in the weeks they were made but they probably did over the coming weeks. Salah springs to mind!
A TALE OF RECKLESS ABANDON
Mitro! Who or what is one of them you may ask. Well, he is an FF247 website legend. He takes hits like we take hot meals. He also complains every week that things aren’t looking rosy and then two days later lays out to sunbathe, fully naked, to bask in the glory of yet another successful hitting spree! He’s embraced the hit culture fully over the years and has actually used it to his advantage to the point that his history shows three top 10k finishes in six seasons and he’s never finished outside of the top 80k. And we are talking ‘hits central here’. 11 in 14 weeks so far is actually very restrained compared to usual.
Here are how his hits have worked out this season –
– Total points IN from the players Mitro has taken a hit for (in that GW) are 127
– Total points OUT from the players leaving are 78
– Minus the 44 from the hits themselves and the net gain is +5
That seems a lot of work for a small net gain but we should also point out that it included some weekly gains of 17, 16, 16 and 21. They were ruined by the negative one which totalled only -22, and without the failures it would look great.
How have the hits impacted his season overall though? In GW3, when he was hitless, he was ranked 1.3m. And then the hits began. As I pointed out on my own analysis above the hits cannot just be measured on a one week result and as such he has risen gradually throughout them to now sit at 270k.
A TALE OF SUCCESS – The Top 20 Teams
It’s always worth looking at the top teams for analysis, for obvious reasons. What are they doing right this season that the majority aren’t? It’s also often frustrating to do so as the answer is usually – not much! Their teams are very similar to most, they don’t have access to magical or mythical players who everybody else doesn’t. But in the interests of the article have they done anything different in terms of taking hits? Maybe…
The top 20 as we stand have taken a total of 19 hits between them this season, less than 1 each. All season. Break that down to the top 7 and they have taken 1 hit between them. All season.
What that actually means is open to interpretation. Are hits intrinsically bad then? Looking at the examples above one shows a small net gain, and one shows a small net loss but with a ranking rise in both cases to justify them.
What it probably says is that they simply picked a better team to begin with, saw it was working and stuck with it!
A TALE OF LUCK?
This has nothing to do with hits really, other than the person involved hasn’t taken any. Or indeed done any transfers. Or indeed changed their Captain since GW1. But the guy in position #9 at the time of writing has done none of the above and has had Salah as a perma Captain all season. He may not even know he is in 9th! It’s apropos nothing really but just thought I’d throw that into the mix!
ACCEPTABLE HITS?
When is a hit acceptable? When it pays off, is the easy answer. But that is with hindsight. I have highlighted above my own criteria for considering a hit – and it is fairly stringent. But that is on a normal GW.
There are however also instances when it may be acceptable to take a guilt free hit without really thinking about it. That is when you are faced with a scenario of not fielding 11 starters. That may be because of injuries and suspensions and due to formation criteria you may be looking at a team with no keeper or less than 3 defenders, for example. Or it may be on a ‘blank’ GW when very few teams play.
That is when we get into the realms of ‘guilt free hits’, as they then become -2’s rather than -4’s. The simple math is that if you are facing a big fat zero on a player’s spot then transferring in someone for a hit should at least garner you 2 points as opposed to none. Hence the -2, and not the usual -4. What happens after that is in the lap of the Gods but at least you have tried!
A FAIRYTALE OF NEW YORK?
Everyone fears the dreaded Christmas rotation. But in terms of hits you just have to ride it out really and hope that your lot still play. The reason being is that you probably won’t know who plays and who doesn’t until the line-up’s are announced each time. Pay close attention to the press conferences for sure, but even then you never know what will happen. Your best bet is to ensure that you have a fully playing 15 man squad going into it.
Thanks for reading TO HIT or NOT TO HIT – THE SEQUEL!
This article was originally written by Inittowinit for FFMag.
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Gameweek Tracker GW23 – 28
excellent article Init, well done mate. it helps ease the pain a bit after throwing the TC chip out of the window.. it used to bring 12 points with the 2 matches.. now it’s even worse..
anyway some thinking in advance: what do you think of wildcarding now? of course it will be missed before the big dgws but there’s a long time till there and i might need to reshuffle my team now. then i’d use the BB and the FH chips before each big dgws.. i know that there’s no clear answer to this just thinkering
I dont think your team needs a WC mate. Think you’ll find much more use for it down the line with DGWs.
thanks Macro, appreciate it! lot depends on the injury updates too, but might tackle them with few hits
I’m keeping mine back until much nearer one of those, for what that’s worth. That strategy tends to work out.
we will know in hindsight for sure 😛
Can’t see much benefit in a WC. You have a few flagged but they have plenty of time to recover for the next GW, and reallyt it’s your bench that looks thin rather than the first XI.
If you were to wildcard, who would you be looking to get rid of? All your players have decent fixtures coming up and are in decent form. I think a bit of tinkering would suffice.
thanks for the comments mate. might just the delusion triggered this thought
btw Alonso and Salah are the 2 most wanted, i can see Eriksen and Walker making the way.. + there are some injury concerns.. but of course i will wait till next Friday
Thanks for this guy, right on point for me.
Ryan, Adrian
Azpi, Jones, Otamendi, Duffy, Kenny
Salah, Sterling, Son, Arnautovic, Richarlison
Kane, Firmino, DCL
0.5 ITB, 1 FT
I want Alonso and Aguero. Is Jesus confirmed to be out for at least a month?
Thinking:
Azpi, Son, Firmino -> Alonso, Carroll, Aguero (cant afford Lingard) -8pts 0.9 ITB.
I could stagger that and get the first two done this week, and the Aguero in the week after.
I really dislike going Azpi to Alonso for -4, but Alonso is on fire, fixtures look good and I dont have other Chelsea cover.
So… worth it? To hit or not to hit?
I’d just hang fire until there’s some more news on Arnie. Apparently it’s a hammy issue again.
We all want Alonso right now – I’m also thinking of swapping him for Azpi but like you also have Salah/Arnie to worry about first. I’ll bring him in if they are clear to play.
Kun should get a clear run for a few weeks but Jesus has said no surgery needed, which suggests it won’t be a huge length of time before he’s back. I think the 3 transfers suggested would weaken your team overall though, as you’d have to play either DCL or Carroll every week, and I’m not sure that Kun will score a huge amount more than Firmino.
i agree with the guys, this has to be a late call depending on the flagged players. the -8 isn’t too teasing anyway, ideally i’d just sit out this week and make the necessary changes with 2FTs in my pocket next week
Plus there’s a stack of FA Cup games across the weekend which could shake up the whole injury situation come next week.
Agree with the lads, hold fire for now.
Not to mention the EFL semis in midweek of which 3 of the current squad could be involved in plus two of the proposed incoming players.
And Bristol City
Great responses. Thank you all.
Will certainly not be making these moves any time soon, holding fire. Just airing some ideas. Will wait for EFL, + some Salah/Arnie news, and go from there.
Excellent article init!
Just a FYI for everyone but I used the free hit chip this week (thank you cookie – I owe you a drink for that one) and my old team would have had scored 36 points but with the chip I managed to score 75 points which is a 39 point gain, what kind of numbers should we expect for this? I have always guessed that BB & TC should give us a around a 25 point gain.
Saying that I did do a -12 before I used the chip which cancelled it out.
I think a 39 point gain from a chip is exceptional.
BB has always been a strange one, most of us here have used it in a DGW but I’m not sure that the actual BB itself would ever get you that many points. There are a lot of factors I.e. how many SGW players you retain and how honest you are with yourself in terms of, would the players you benched truly have been benched had you no BB. Even the most successful TC has yet to ( and likely never will) yield a 39 point advantage, to do so a player would need to score 39 points… that ain’t happening!
I think the Free hit chip could potentially be the most advantageous chip after the WCs. I think to reap its full potential it should be used in a DGW or BGW. It will be interesting to see if anyone can outscore the 39 points you gained, I’d be pretty damn satisfied with how it worked for you!
I have always used the BB & TC on a DGW, the TC in particular hasn’t really paid off for me, last season I used it on Kun and Carroll the season before that *shudder, I am hoping it will pay off this season
Snap! Same two TC players and fails! Felt 2 seasons back in should have played BB in the week I played TC and vice versa. Last season o felt I played the TC too early ( Kun). Would love a successful TC!
This is a great article, thanks init!! I remember having an in-depth discussion about hits with you last season and this is very interesting. Being flexible with hits has worked the best for me over the years. I don’t mind taking a hit if the situation warrants it, and most of the time (if you’re lucky) they either pay off that week or hopefully will over the course of the next few with a better player/team.
One thing I really hate though is getting caught out chasing price rises and having to use a hit for an injury or circumstance that could have been avoided by being patient. This happened to me already this season when I bought Aguero early before a cup match to catch a price rise and he ended up playing 120 minutes through extra time. This was really stupid move and while I didn’t actually use a hit to replace him, it weakened my team for the following gw as I had a premium player benched. Things like that add up with point hits and missed points and over the season they really add up!
Anyway, thanks again for the article. Hope everyone is doing well and 2018 is off to a good start!
Hi Red,
If you put me in charge of FPL, I’m bringing in a transfer ‘window’ each week. Fifteen minutes at some point on a Friday when I get the chance to open it. I’ll tweet it out (if I remember).
Hahaha, that would be ideal GP!! The transfer market gets crazier and crazier every year as more people play. I definitely consider my TV and price changes- especially in the early stages, but it shouldn’t be at the cost of points.
I think many of the best FPL players are able to wait on transfers and don’t get caught out very often with early moves that backfire. Points over pounds and all that. Patience is definitely something I can improve on- until they put you in charge of the window anyway!
They really need to follow the MLS transfer rules in terms of price changes in my opinion. Or at least something similar, with no price changes during a GW at least.
It sure does make it difficult to play ‘smart’ Mr. Bean when you have to watch someone rise that you want or hold someone dropping until the end of the wee because hordes of people are making early moves. And my guess is that it’s the newer, less experienced FPL players that are mainly driving the market, with the experienced players reacting to it to beat price changes.
I think it was Kane who actually rose in price after his hat trick when Spurs had a blank the next gw, which just doesn’t make any sense if you’re paying attention to the schedule!
Ross Barkley signs for Chelsea:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/42574404
That has the potential to be a brilliant bit of business. For everyone.
I’d be very surprised if he gets more than a few sub appearances this season, but longer term is a different story. I’ll wait until next season before considering him, or possibly as a differential toward the end of the season when everything is settled.
Here’s hoping he turns in to Lampard Mk II though
I think its rubbish for Everton GP.
A young English midfield talent, better than Sterling, going for £15mln. And they paid £50mln was it for Siggy. Ox went for 40mln.
A steal for Chelsea in my opinion.
A steel Cookie this is an incredible bit of business for Che
Really Silvers? I’ll take it from that you haven’t seen him play much!
Better than Sterling?!
You’ll have to give me a minute here Cookie…
:big-lol:
Phew, that’s better.
Oh no hang on… it’s coming again.
:big-lol:
…..
Evening
I know GW23 is a while away but I could do with some inspirational ideas on my next couple of moves. I have 2.1 ITB
Christensen and Richarlison to Alonso and Lingard ( through in a hit as it’s you!) oh and I replied to your comment above!
Threw*
Week after turn Haz into Mahrez and Morata into Kun
Love it 😉
Yeah I do!! Think these would be solid moves! You’ll be seeing green arrows all day!