MLS GW10 Tips – Fantasy Major League Soccer

MLS GW10 Tips – Fantasy Major League Soccer

MLS DEADLINE GW10 – Thursday 12TH MAY 00:00AM (So that’s midnight on Wednesday night for our UK lot!)

We are nearly 1/3 of the way through the MLS Fantasy season, and so far we’ve been on such an unanticipated course that’s it’s looking very unlikely that things will normalize as the season goes on. We typically think of the World Cup years as the difficult MLS seasons to navigate – but this is turning out to be the season of chaos for so many fantasy players. And if anybody tells you that this is just par for the course, they’re either lying or they don’t follow MLS closely enough to really appreciate how crazy this year has been thus far.

We can probably partially blame some of these new trends on the purposefully crafted parity the league strives for (whether you agree with them or not, it’s a real thing). And we can probably blame some of unexpected results on certain teams having either severely congested schedules (like SKC) or having a ton of road fixtures (Toronto). But we’ve always had issues like that in the MLS. This has been something new.

You ever try to make an omelette and it completely falls apart the first time you try to flip it? What do you do? You either try to save it (which never works), or you mash that sucker up until you have scrambled eggs. That’s what this MLS season has been. We’ve spent too much time trying to save the omelette instead of just giving into the scramble.

We thought Dallas were going to be the best team in the league this year – they have a -3 GD and can be pretty garbage on the road. We thought NYRB and Columbus would both be back in the Eastern Conference Finals – you could probably just flip a coin any time those two teams play a match to decide wins and losses. And we always thought that Colorado were garbage. They’re in first place in the West and have the most stout defensive stats by a mile.

There should be a rule against making MLS preseason predictions because they can affect your thinking for too long and really hamper your team. Kill the omelette folks. Let’s talk DGW10 as if it were the first week of the year again – with a clean slate.

[divider_1px]

#1) Know your DGW teams

We’ve done this before, so you know the drill. We have 8 teams to cover today, so some of these might be a bit more abbreviated than others, but we’ll do our best to hit the important points.

#1A) Chicago Fire v VAN (A), NE (A)
Remember, let’s try to think with an open mind here. I think a lot of us were especially hard on Chicago at the beginning of the year in the same way that we ragged on Colorado. Was all of that hate deserved? Maybe. Let’s not split hairs here, Chicago are in dead last place in the East – but they’ve also played two fewer games than any other team as well. Chicago have conceded 8 goals through 7 matches, so their 1.14 GAA isn’t the worst thing in the world. Their problem is that they just haven’t found a way to consistently score goals, and their 7 goals scored is a testament to that (they’re the only team in the entire league to be below double digits in that category).

Here’s the rub though, Chicago have back to back DGW’s, so you have to have coverage of some kind for them. Whether you pick up a single player or even two players is up to you, but I think we’ve all learned our lesson that picking the max amount of players from any team isn’t a sound strategy thus far. Conventional strategy, given the basic stats listed above, would tell you to invest in their defense. And truth be told, a player like Jonathan Campbell at $5.3 is a very good price for the points he’s produced (41 points through 7 games). But Chicago will be playing the entirety of this DGW on the road, and their next DGW is split away/home. That’s three straight road matches for this team already has it’s fair share of struggles. You could take a chance and invest up front if needed just to see what happens. Given the schedule though, just take a single player from this team and see what shakes out.

[divider_1px]

#1B) Colorado Rapids v SKC(H), CLB (A)
The darlings of the ball are getting another DGW to try to prove their doubters wrong. I was chief of the haters for a long time, but any team that resides in first place in their conference after this much of the season has passed deserves a bit of respect now.

Colorado are leading the league with a 0.8 GAA average. To think that this team reached double digit games played before they reached double digit goals allowed is crazy. But that’s been their story all year, strong defense and grinding out slim-margin wins. What has changed for Colorado is that their offense is now giving them support with the addition of Jermaine Jones. Colorado haven’t been shut out once in their last five matches – and they’re scoring an average of 2.0 goals per game in that stretch. That’s more than respectable for a run of that length. Sure, LA are scoring goals left and right, but Colorado’s system is working for them too.

You can now feel completely comfortable picking any position from Colorado for this DGW. The Rapids are now 5-0-0 at home, so you could even pick these players just for their home fixture and count whatever they do on the road against Columbus as a bonus. I’m not a big fan of saying that many players are “must haves”, but Jermaine Jones is a bargain at $8.2 right now with his 8.75 PPG average. But mix it up a bit as well. Take a cheap defender or even nab Gashi or Solignac. Whereas I would put Chicago on a strict 1-2 player maximum for your team, I think you could safely go 2-3 from Colorado this week.

[divider_1px]

#1C) FC Dallas v POR(H), SEA(H)
Dallas are going to make or break many teams this week. Their ownership in the league is still being fueled by reputation more than stats and actual point production. Dallas are coming off their 3-game road series in the worst possible shape. They lost all three games by a combined score of 8-0. Now I know that road fixtures are tough, but to not score a single goal in three matches, with all of the talent that Dallas have, is baffling.

Now I get it, people will be jumping on the Dallas train again because Dallas are the only team in this DGW with a pair of home fixtures. And that does count for a lot. But Dallas were showing signs that they weren’t the most dominant team well before this last road series they went on. In Dallas’ last three home fixtures they won one and played the other two to a draw. And really, the match that they did win was against SKC during SKC’s double. And we all know what a crap lineup shuffle SKC were going through at that time.

I’m not saying that you shouldn’t pick up any Dallas players, you honestly can’t afford to not have at least a single player of theirs. So if I had to key in on any player I’d pick Max Urruti first. He won’t break your bank and he scored 8 points the last time he played against Portland. Mauro Diaz will be a popular pick, but he’s at a premium price. I would avoid the Dallas defense and keepers right now. With Portland now getting back to healthy and Seattle finding some kind of scoring rhythm with Morris, I don’t think a clean sheet looks likely.

[divider_1px]

#1D Houston Dynamo v SJ(A), RSL(H)
Ordinarily I wouldn’t be excited about a team in last place in a DGW – but there’s a lot to like about Houston for this series. First, even though they are indeed in last place, they still have the second highest goals tally in the Western Conference. Honestly, they do. It’s a crazy bit of trivia that a team with as many goals as they have can actually be bottom of the table. Their 16 goals are only behind LA’s 22 and Montreal’s 17 for league wide totals. And they’re actually in last place!

What that says is their defense must be garbage – and their 16 GA pretty much shows that. So let’s not focus on their defense for this round.

Bruin, Barnes and Wenger all have 3 goals each for Houston. Wenger and Barnes are still viable, Bruin has fallen back to being a not-really-good player again. And Houston finally turned a corner this past round and gave Cubo Torres a start! Honestly, the best forward the team has finally got a start. I couldn’t believe it either.

The bad news is that Houston are the last start of the early games this Wednesday, so you won’t know if Torres continues to start or not. But you should probably nab Wenger (or Maidana now that he’s back to healthy). And you could even consider Horst from the back for his offensive capabilities. But just be sure to buy a bit of attack from Houston. They will score goals in some fashion this round.

[divider_1px]

#1E Philadelphia Union v LA(H), MTL(A)
This is a nifty tie-in to what I was just saying about Houston above; the two highest goal scoring teams in the league are LA and Montreal. And guess who has to play them both this round? Philly.

Do yourself a favor and just skip any pretense that picking up a defender or keeper from this squad is a good idea for this round. Statistically it isn’t. You can find better, and cheaper, options from one of the other seven teams on a double this week.

Really, there are only two viable options from Philly for this round. The first is Chris Pontius for a mid, and the second is CJ Sapong at forward. Both of these players are decently priced and both have scored 4 goals this year. If you have a need at those positions and are looking to save a bit of bank for big hitters elsewhere, choose one of these two guys. Otherwise, you’re just speculating against the norm by picking any other Philly player given these matchups.

[divider_1px]

#1F) Portland Timbers v DAL(A), NYC(H)
As much as I say that we all have to come to grips with the fact that Dallas aren’t really as great as we’d hoped this year, I have to be impartial and say the same thing about the Timbers. As a Timbers fan, I admit that we’re a mess right now. Portland had rough patches last year and turned it around, but this feels different somehow.

Lucas Melano isn’t working out like we’d hoped, and his transfer fee set a record for the Timbers. Given the pricetag, the Timbers have to play him. But he doesn’t look comfortable out there. Maybe I’m just an idiot YouTube jockey, but all of his amazing clips from Argentina seem to show him playing more of a CF role, not a winger. Whatever the problem is, this experiment is affecting how the whole team plays.

Really, the only recommendation I can make for this round is Diego Valeri. His bonus points will mount no matter what the scoreline is. But outside of that, we’ve already seen Adi suffer limited minutes in a double, and Nagbe is a great footballer – but he’s not a great fantasy option. Take Valeri and leave the rest alone until they start to turn this thing around. Portland are second bottom in the conference right now, and their fantasy options should reflect as such.

[divider_1px]

#1G) SKC v COL(A), ORL(H)
This will be short and sweet – because many of you already know how I feel about SKC’s super conservative model of protecting players from heavy minutes.

SKC have a ton of talent with Coehlo, Davis, Feilhaber, Zusi, Dwyer, etc etc. But these players will probably suffer heavy rotation during a double. You’ve seen it, I’ve seen it. It’s going to happen again. It will, just trust me on that. If you pick a single SKC player, you have to come to terms with the fact that it’s a possibility that they won’t see 180 minutes. If you pick more than a single SKC player, you’re just asking for a letdown. Because SKC will crush your soul. It’s not simply that you’ll see a player play 90 and then be on the bench for the next game. SKC will just leave players off the bench entirely for them to get rest. It’s not pretty.

Plus, SKC travel to the fortress of Colorado. They’re not a good pick this week.

[divider_1px]

#1H) Vancouver Whitecaps v CHI(H), TOR(A)
Vancouver have a good matchup to start the double. So you may be inclined to go ahead and load up on a defender or two and take Ousted in goal while you’re at it. But Vancouver are incredibly expensive in the back – and carrying that cost into a match against Giovinco in Toronto isn’t a real pleasant thought. I would limit yourself to just a single option from Vancouver defense if you can afford it.

Outside of that, there’s always Pedro Morales to consider. But Pedro Morales is always just one twist or turn away from breaking himself again. He’s just that guy. He hasn’t sniffed double digit points since around GW3 – and I’m saying you should pass on him this round until he gets his form back.

Up front? Rivero and Manneh are listed as out. Rivero actually has an “undisclosed injury” – but that’s just team jargon for “played well before, sucks bad now”. I guess you could get Kudo up front for Vancouver? But even at his price he isn’t worth the gamble right now. Vancouver shouldn’t make up a large portion of your team this week.

[divider_1px]

#2) Quick takes
– Even with all of this DGW madness going on, we continually see an example or two of a player that should always be included (or at least considered) even when they’re on a single match. The standard rule is Giovinco – he’s just too good, and his home stretch will probably only get better for him. But let’s not forget about LA players again.

– Keane and dos Santos looked like this MLS thing is easy. One of the sneakiest moves you could make this week would be to bring one of them in while everybody else is worrying over Adi or Urruti.

– If SKC and Vancouver (and probably Dallas) have just burned you too many times this year for you to trust them again, grab an LA player and look to start building for next week’s DGW offerings. Both NY teams and Toronto will be on a double, and there are some legitimately exciting options to look forward to there.

– National team camps will be starting soon, so now might be a good time to start to take some of those role players on certain teams that will see extended minutes in international absences. We’ll go over the big names leaving in next week’s article, but it never hurts to be ahead of the curve a bit.

– If you haven’t seen the fight between Federico Higuain and Kei Kamara over which of the players would take a PK in their last game, go to YouTube immediately and do that. Things could be unravelling in Columbus, and that could tip the scales for you if you’re thinking of picking somebody against them (like Colorado players this week).

[divider_1px]

#5) Captain Picks
Jermaine Jones tops my list this week. He’s not too flashy, but his point production has been steady and well above average. If you’re not looking to shoot the moon this week, but you just want a solid return, Jones is your man.

Andrew Wenger is second on my list. Let’s be honest, nobody is going to pick him, but he’s probably got as good of a shot of making the Dream Team as anybody else in the league this week. I expect him to get a solid 10-14 points combined in his two games.

Lastly I’m going Diego Valeri. The team worries me, but his bonus point production does not. Always a solid choice.

[divider_1px]

[clear]The MLSFI Podcast
We mention this every week and we hope you’ve had a chance to listen in but if you haven’t then be sure to try and check out this weeks edition below. The guys know MLS inside out but more than that they’re just a great listen every week and you get to follow their teams, their successes and their woes. Pretty much the same soap story that unfolds on our FPL comments on here every week, only in a podcast format!

MLSFI Hosts H2H League
Well we promised updates and we promised to pull that cap down over Jay’s eyes this week and pat him on the back for a valiant effort so here goes! The current league table is on the left so as you can see your faithful FF247 team stands tall and proud at the top still which means of course that we beat up on poor old Jay after all but to be fair he bent over and took it well in the end. Probably through gritted teeth but he was a good sport throughout his beating. His oh so brutal beating… Piatti was his undoing ultimately, we kept him and he nailed the GW with 18 points. 18 points! Just imagine taking him out this week! Some did so for a hit as well…

Last weeks results then…

We’ve been playing the pantomime villain on this so far, egging it up for rivalries sake and revelling in our victories on twitter but anyone who knows us knows that this is just a front and we don’t actually mean it at all. Which is just as well as this week we find ourselves facing Guy himself! Even the most cold hearted pantomime villain would find it hard to build up any head of steam against our favourite and resident MLS expert. And so this week we simply leave it with a good luck / may the best team win message. Don’t worry though, we’ll back to normal next week when we have one of his colleagues to beat upon!

The podcast is below but if you don’t have time for it itself then the guys have a handy chalkboard with their picks on which is below also. (Or will be as ever, just as and when they post it themselves!)

Don’t forget to stop by mlsfantasyboss.com to catch up on their great weekly articles that lead into the deadline.

Or if you are after listening to more of Guy himself then be sure to drop in and give his Married Man’s Guide to Sports Addiction a listen!

To play the MLS game itself it’s fantasy.mlssoccer.com that you need.

[divider_1px]

And last but not least, don’t forget to join the FF247 MLS League, Code is: 123-361

[divider_1px]

MLS GW10 Tips – Fantasy Major League Soccer This article was written by Guy Sanchez (FootyFantastic)

Follow @Guy_M_Sanchez