MLS GW17 Tips – Fantasy Major League Soccer

MLS GW17 Tips – Fantasy Major League Soccer

GW16 is done and dusted – and there were more than a few surprises along the way for many team owners. Who could have foreseen Bradley Wright Phillips making MLS history by missing two penalties in one match? Or who thought that San Jose would pull off another miracle this season and beat Seattle for a second time in an away fixture? Giovinco with 2 points just for showing up? Safe to say there were a few quirks to this past week.

But elsewhere, there was plenty that went according to plan. Consider Portland finding their groove and winning their fourth straight against a lowly Houston. That win looked almost effortless. And LA revealing that they were really a powder keg just ready to erupt spoiled Philadelphia’s long road trip. As long as our good moves outweigh the improbable events of the week, we should stay in great shape.

That being said, it was still a rough week in terms of the average. The game’s average score this week was an abysmal 37 points (sorry NIN, even sorrier Bry! – ed.) – and the average score for the Top 10 in the game wasn’t much better at 47.6 points. So there is still work to do. And if there was ever going to be a week to ‘go big or go home’, this is that week.

#1) The DGW Bonanza is here
12 of the 20 MLS teams have a DGW this round. There hasn’t been such a concentration of teams on a double before – and there won’t be anything near this level to come after (at least for this season). And this is a big deal because for the next five weeks, there will only be a total of two total instances of a team on a DGW. From GW18 through GW22, most play in the league is going to revert back to a more classic style of picking the best captain and really riding your star players for longer than a game or two.

For the last five weeks now (including this week), we’ve had 24 total instances of a team on a DGW – and we’ve had a wildcard on top of that. It’s been really easy to get in the habit of seeing your players as something very fluid that can come and go on a whim. This abrupt change in playing style is going to catch many owners by surprise in the coming rounds. Don’t be one of those owners. Build your team for this week, but also build a team with the idea in mind that it’s going to have to have a bit of staying power as well.

To review, the teams on a DGW this week are: Colorado, Columbus, DC, Montreal, LA, New England, NYRB, Philadelphia, Portland, RSL, Seattle and Toronto.

And of that group, only Philadelphia and Toronto have both of their matches at home.[clear]

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#2) Approaching players with a single game — the David Villa problem
Many owners this week will be looking to maximize their squads with an army of DGW players. In fact, most owners have a full eleven starters on a DGW along with their first sub. And to accomplish this, owners are offloading any player with a single game week – regardless of their recent form. I’m not sure if this saying is the same in England, but we have a saying that goes, “Don’t throw the baby out with the bath water”. I think that saying applies to this situation.

For the owners that have stuck with David Villa ($10.8 – F) to this point, is there any player worth dropping Villa for with the New York Derby coming up on Sunday? Are you prepared to toss aside a guaranteed 90 minute superstar in superior form simply for the potential that a DGW player could provide? Each owner in the game has to ask themselves this question. But at over 14% ownership on Villa, it appears not everybody is set on selling the Spaniard quite yet.

Villa has scored 12 points in each of his last two matches, and he has four goals and an assist in his last four games. With the ever present rotation fear the MLS brings, it seems more likely that Villa would be of great use to a squad in addition to Keane or BWP – but perhaps Villa isn’t worth dropping just to bring in one of those players. This same line of thinking should also extend to owners of Kaka and Feilhaber – both of those superstars are playing at home this week, and nobody would blame you for keeping them in your lineup on a hunch play.

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#3) But seriously, it’s all about the DGW players, right?
Like I said above, this DGW is a bit of an anomaly, so you may as well have some fun with it. And there are some great targets for this round that will provide service to your team for weeks to come. Here are the top five players participating in the DGW:

** Robbie Keane ($11.0 – F) **
Keane missed a ton of time to injury and international duty this season. But he was quoted earlier this week saying that he needs to play 2 games a week. He needs to get on goals. Given his stature and the earnestness of his statement, Keane is probably not as likely to suffer a rotation benching as some of his counterparts. Keane played 90 minutes in his match against Philly and gave an assist — but his whole team really played well in the 5-1 win and probably took some points from him. He’ll have a bit of work to do against a stout Portland defense on Wednesday, but by Saturday all will be well when LA shows San Jose who really rules California.

** Cristian Maidana ($8.9 – M) **
Sure, Philadelphia got trounced in LA – but the extensive travel and the injuries going into that match were always going to be an issue. Now Philadelphia plays back to back games at home against a toothless Seattle and Montreal. Maidana’s last three scores at home were 7, 7 and 5 — and even in a losing effort in LA he was able to snag 3 attacking bonus. If there is a bit of offensive resurgence in Philly, Maidana is sure to be at the heart of it.

** Diego Valeri ($10.1 – M) **
Valeri is a bit pricey, and his stats aren’t up to snuff quite yet. But Valeri finally looks like he’s ready to come back from his latest round of injuries. During the midweek Cup match between Seattle and Portland, Valeri played exactly 60 minutes and scored a goal. Valeri then came in as a sub against Houston to get a bit of run, but it was clear that he was being saved for the fixtures coming up. Mainly, the Sunday clash against Seattle will be where he is going to be most key. Cascadia rivalry matches are always a bit of a lift – and playing without having to worry about Obafemi or Dempsey will only be a benefit.

** Laurent Ciman ($7.8 – D) **
Montreal will have back to back road games for this DGW. Ordinarily, that wouldn’t be the best time to pick up a defender. Laurent Ciman isn’t just any defender though, he’s a CBI machine. Ciman is averaging 5.5 points per game on the road this year. There is the very real possibility that Ciman will live up to that billing and score 11 points for you this week without ever having to worry about getting a clean sheet. That 5.5 average score came with only having the benefit of a single clean sheet in six away matches this year. Just plug Ciman into your lineup and watch the the points accumulate like clockwork.

** Sebastian Giovinco ($12.1 – M) **
Save the best for last, right? Many people will feel slighted by Giovinco after his pedestrian 2 point performance this past weekend. But it’s better the superstar player lays an egg in the week with just one match as opposed to the DGW, is it not? The one thing about Giovinco is that to this point in the year he has never given owners back to back weeks of 2 points or less. If that holds true, he should see a points increase in his next match. Giovinco gets back to back home games for the DGW and should bounce back without any issue here in his next match.

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#4) Can we trust Bradley Wright Phillips?
In baseball, we have a thing called The Yips. If you’re a golfer, you’ve probably heard of this as well. But a footballer getting The Yips isn’t something you’d often think you see. What are The Yips? The Yips are basically a mental hurdle that will not let an athlete compete like they know they are able. It’s as simple as that. For something that sounds trivial, it can be devastating to watch unfold in real time.

So much of a striker’s game is about confidence. When a striker like BWP misses two penalty kicks – you have to wonder what that guy’s mindset is going to be going into the next match. It wasn’t just a failure, it was a historic failure.

I don’t think there will be much middle ground with BWP this week. It’s likely going to be one of two scenarios; he’ll either come out with a renewed sense of self and score goals, or he’ll have The Yips and be absolutely awful. There isn’t really a scouting metric that we can use for this. You have to trust your gut when looking at BWP this week. Just be aware that if you pick him up, it could really be feast or famine for his output.

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#5) The captain picks
Top Tier – Giovinco and Robbie Keane
If there are two superstars that are the least likely to have a rotation issue this week, it’s these two. Their potential is enough to merit serious consideration for the captaincy. It would not be a huge surprise to see both of these guys on the Dream Team when the round is closed.

Differential Picks – Fabian Espindola and Javier Morales
Espindola would be a top choice if it wasn’t for the fact that DC are always too conservative giving the same players too many minutes in congested matches. Picking Espindola would be a risk, but it could pay off. Be aware that Espindola has both matches on the road this week, but his first match in Chicago should see goals for the road side. Javier Morales has been involved in the attack recently and isn’t a bad choice for a cap. He’ll play away to NYRB, but has a very favorable fixture against Columbus at home later in the week.

The Ultimate Differential – Lamar Neagle
Neagle didn’t impress in his match against San Jose last round — but it was more the fault of the service into the box than anything else. Until Dempsey and Oba are back in the lineup, Neagle will be playing up front in an attacking role. If you are trying to capture some of that Cascadia rivalry magic, Neagle would be a hell of a punt to try to make up some ground in the rankings.

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MLS GW17 Tips – Fantasy Major League Soccer This article was written by Guy Sanchez (FootyFantastic)

Follow @Guy_M_Sanchez

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Don’t forget that Guy does have his own MLS blog and we highly recommend a visit as it expands even more upon the current GW – http://www.footyfantastic.com/