MLS GW20 Tips – Fantasy Major League Soccer

MLS GW20 Tips – Fantasy Major League Soccer

Since we’re (again) in the midst of a DGW to plan for, we needed to accelerate this article. This week we get Chicago (bleh) and Columbus (unreliable) in the Wednesday game followed by a more normal slate of games going into the weekend. And Chicago will actually play Columbus for a second time on Sunday to wrap up their DGW. The good news is that we don’t have any bye weeks this round to have to plan around. Interesting stat: only 16 of the 34 weeks in MLS fantasy don’t have a team on a bye week. This game is exhausting to plan for sometimes.

But I’m not bitter about it, I’m just getting really excited for FPL and all the glorious normalcy that comes with it.

Since we’re getting that rare full week, we have a lot to talk about. Let’s get started.

1)Know your DGW teams — Chicago
Let’s start with Chicago. Do you really want a Chicago player this week? Does the thought of having a possible 180 minute player excite you that much? Then be cautious about it and just grab a single player. Which one, you ask? *Sigh*

You could go Mike Magee. People forget about Magee and how wonderful he used to be before he got hurt. Magee has now played incrementally more each of the last three weeks as he works his way back into the mix. He’s had appearances of 17, 32 and 69 minutes going into this week. How will he be treated going into a DGW though? It’s anybody’s guess. The one thing for sure is that Columbus are still garbage in the defensive third and SOMEBODY is going to score against them, right? Magee is still cheap at $8.0, and he could be a value going forward.

If you’re not into Magee, Kennedy Igboananike ($7.5, F) seems to be a nailed on starter, but he hasn’t scored a goal in five weeks now. Harrison Shipp ($8.1, M) is probably the best choice from Chicago. He hasn’t recently hit the scoring sheet either, but at least he’s turned in 5 points in each of his last two matches from bonuses.

Defensively, Chicago has a couple of options that will now look more appealing simply because they’ve recently lucked into a clean sheet against a hapless Seattle team. Eric Gehrig ($5.1, D) is a nailed-on starter that has 13 points in his last two matches, so you do have a value option available. It just really depends on whether Columbus decides to complete their attacks this week. Make no mistake, this Chicago defensive unit doesn’t earn clean sheets on their own, they just wait for a team on bad form to not find the back of the net.

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2)Know your DGW teams — Columbus
Let’s start with the player everybody is debating right now — Kei Kamara. Kamara is a player that can be great, but he’s not proven to be a valuable play on the road. Start by looking at his last five weeks, you’ll see that Kamara turned in the scores of 2, 11, 4, 11 and 2. But that’s not the whole story. His last five away scores are 4, 7, 1, 4 and 2. It should concern owners that the first leg of his DGW will be on the road to Chicago.

There is just no consistency with Kamara (or with Columbus at all). Kamara’s ownership is now fully based on earlier reputation and has nothing to do with his actual recent output. There are several forwards on better form than Kamara right now, but Kamara is garnering 36.5% ownership heading into this weekend — and that number will probably grow as we get closer to the deadline. At $9.4, he’s going to cost you a proper roster spot. Whether you take the chance on him this week or not is up to you.

Moving backwards, Ethan Finlay is probably the more stable bet for you money. Granted, he blanked this week too, but his last five scores are 8, 6, 10, 13 and 2. Those numbers inspire much more confidence than Kamara’s do. It’s easy to look at Finlay and see the low score as an aberration and not a pattern. Finlay is probably a must-have this week at the more reasonable price of $8.8.

Whatever you do, be cautious investing in the Columbus defense. They haven’t kept a clean sheet since GW7, and they look horrible in real time. It’s really a mess for Columbus right now. There is the chance that playing Chicago twice could serve The Crew with their best chance at a clean sheet, and if you feel that way, at least try to invest wisely and leave it at a single player from the back.

Now, there are other differential options for Columbus to consider. If you’re wanting to bet against Kamara, you could buy Higuain for $10.5. Higuain hasn’t had an exceptional year for himself, but he’s still present in the attack and has assists in two of the last three matches. And if you can’t afford Finlay, Tchani ($7.3, M) is just as good of a gamble as anybody else. Like I said, neither of these teams are consistent, so it’s anybody’s guess where the points will come from this week.

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3) Did you give up on Giovinco?
Giovinco finally caught Feilhaber and became the game’s leading scorer this week. And what a week it was. Giovinco had three goals and an assist, all of which increased his price even further to the mark of $12.5. If you sold Giovinco, it’s going to be even harder to buy him now. Really, what is the ceiling on this guy? He’s gone from $11.0 up to $12.5 in 19 short weeks. And unlike the FPL system, his price rises are all merit based. Could he cost upwards of $14 by the time the league is over? It’s a real possibility. His 22.5% ownership may not see a real jump due to his cost now. And those that don’t have him are really going to miss out.

Consider this: Toronto do not have a bye week until GW32. For those people that own him now, there is no reason to sell him outside of injury. And the schedule for Toronto is looking stellar for the next several weeks, they will play PHI (H), CLB (A) and NE (A) — all teams that love to allow goals. And after that trio of matches is wrapped up, Toronto get a DGW with back to back home games.

Listen, maybe you sold Gio because you wanted to buy a new summer signing. I get that. But if Gio’s form continues like it is, you may find yourself stuck looking for funds to pick him up. I think Gio will make or break fantasy teams down the home stretch. You may want to get on the right side of fantasy history, if you know what I mean.

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4) The Top 10 Teams
This week we saw a bit of a shift in what was popular for the Top 10 teams. Specifically, the type of formation used was as varied as we’ve seen it since the start of the year. The most popular formation was still the 3-4-3, but that formation was only used by five owners. The second most popular formation used was actually the 4-4-2 (three owners) which was followed by the 3-5-2 and the 4-3-3 with one owner each.

All across the board there were a few surprise scratches, so auto subs can change a team from time to time, but it’s important to realize that the formation does matter. The fact that only one person in the Top 10 used five midfielders is a stat worth noting.

Also, this week saw every owner at the top use Kamara. Interestingly enough, Giovinco, Villa and Finlay were all used in only 8 of the 10 teams. I say that’s interesting because Kamara only earned two points yet had the highest percentage of ownership. And with the DGW, none of these Top 10 teams are likely to drop Kamara going into this week — and probably all of these teams will end up having Finlay if I had to wager a guess. The choice you’re going to have to make is this: are you smarter than the pack, or can you make up some serious ground on the league leaders via a superb differential pick? If you’re trying to rise up, betting against Kamara this week (and being right about it obviously) is the surest method to see a gain.

But maybe we’re too early in the season to start making aggressive moves like that? It’s a tough call.

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5) Notes on other players
David Villa has passed the $11 threshold and now sits at $11.1. His form as of late has been nothing short of spectacular. Villa now has 51 points in his last five weeks alone. Though his case is not nearly as severe as Giovinco’s, owning him may soon be out of reach for some if his price continues on the trajectory that it’s currently on. Any forward over $11 has to be considered an elite purchase — and Villa certainly has shown that’s exactly what he is. And there’s still time to cash in on Villa as NYCFC have a very favorable schedule coming up — they start by playing away to a bumbling New England team and then get back to back home games against Orlando and Montreal.

Robbie Keane is back this week, but be warned that there may be some tired legs involved for him. The LA Galaxy are fresh from a 2-1 win over Club America in the ICC tournament and will have to play away to RSL on Tuesday for an Open Cup match before coming home to play San Jose. The good thing is that we’ll have a chance to monitor Keane’s minutes prior to making our transfers on Wednesday, but he should be in the majority of serious squads going forward. Their home game against San Jose is followed up with relatively easy road games against Houston and Colorado.

Diego Valeri is having a hard time justifying his price in the fantasy game. He has now played two full matches at 90 minutes, but Portland have only scored one goal in that time. Maybe we can give him the benefit of the doubt since he was surrounded by five players that had been rotated in due to injury/rest concerns, but with the glut of scoring we’re seeing from the attacking positions, Valeri’s window for fantasy owners may be coming quickly to a close. Portland play at home this week against Vancouver, and a Cascadia match may be just what Portland needs to get back on the goals. But nobody will blame you if you trade Valeri until they start firing again.

Bradley Wright-Phillips has officially redeemed himself from his horrible double-miss PK fiasco. BWP has three goals and two assists in his last three matches and looks like he’s settled in with Sam and Grella. Sure, he has a bye week next week — but putting his form up against Orlando this week is still a solid play.

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The Captain Picks
The Top Tier — Kamara and Giovinco. I’m going to put Kamara here because people will captain him whether I tell them to or not. I’m not saying I fully advocate the move at this point — just know that a large part of your competition this week will give him the armband. Giovinco plays at home against Philly this week and you have to feel sorry for anybody that Gio is playing against right now. And Philadelphia, though great at home in defense, are severely lacking on the road. Philly’s last five away matches have seen them concede a total of 14 goals with only one clean sheet. Giovinco could have himself a field day with those odds.

The Differential Picks — Finlay and Villa. Both Finlay and Villa have been covered at length here so I won’t go into any more detail on them. Just know that capping either of these two is really a play against the norms that we’ll see this week. This could be a huge swing if you go this route, for better or for worse.

The Surprise Pick — Benny Feilhaber. Feilhaber just pulled a ‘Giovinco’ on his owners and left them high and dry with his FIRST 2 point performance of the year. And since owners in this league are fickle and prone to chasing points that happened the week prior, expect a marked reduction in Feilhaber caps this week. But don’t expect Feilhaber to put in another subpar performance.

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Just a reminder from Lawdogg as to who is on Gold Cup duty. Basically don’t go picking up these guys. Please find below a team-by-team breakdown of MLS players competing in the Gold Cup:

CANADA
3. Ashtone Morgan (D, Toronto FC)
7. Russell Teibert (M, Vancouver Whitecaps)
8. Kyle Bekker (M, FC Dallas)
13. Jonathan Osorio (M, Toronto FC)
16. Maxim Tissot (M, Montreal Impact)
17. Marcel de Jong (M, Sporting Kansas City)
18. Quillan Roberts (GK, Toronto FC)
20. Karl Ouimette (D, New York Red Bulls)
21. Cyle Larin (F, Orlando City SC)
23. Tesho Akindele (M, FC Dallas)

COSTA RICA
9. Álvaro Saborío (F, Real Salt Lake)
19. Roy Miller (D, New York Red Bulls)

EL SALVADOR
7. Darwin Cerén (M, Orlando City SC)

HAITI
18. Soni Mustivar (M, Sporting Kansas City)

HONDURAS
13. Oscar Boniek Garcia (M, Houston Dynamo)

GUATEMALA
3. Elías Vásquez (D, Real Salt Lake)
5. Moises Hernandez (D, FC Dallas)
16. Marco Pappa (M, Seattle Sounders)

JAMAICA
1. Andre Blake (GK, Philadelphia Union)
5. Alvas Powell (D, Portland Timbers)
8. Michael Seaton (F, DC United – on loan to Orebro)
9. Giles Barnes (F, Houston Dynamo)
11. Darren Mattocks (F, Vancouver Whitecaps)
12. Demar Phillips (D, Real Salt Lake)
15. Je-Vaughn Watson (M, FC Dallas)
20. Kemar Lawrence (D, New York Red Bulls)
21. Jermaine Taylor (D, Houston Dynamo)

PANAMA
1. Jaime Penedo (GK, LA Galaxy)
7. Blas Pérez (F, FC Dallas)
8. Gabriel Torres (F, Colorado Rapids)

TRINIDAD & TOBAGO
3. Joevin Jones (M, Chicago Fire)
13. Cordell Cato (M, San Jose Earthquakes)
19. Kevan George (M, Columbus Crew SC)

USA
3. Omar Gonzalez (LA Galaxy)
4. Michael Bradley (Toronto FC)
5. Kyle Beckerman (Real Salt Lake)
8. Clint Dempsey (Seattle Sounders)
10. Mix Diskerud (New York City FC)
12. Nick Rimando (GK, Real Salt Lake)
14. Brad Davis (Houston Dynamo)
16. Brad Evans (Seattle Sounders)
17. Jozy Altidore (Toronto FC)
18. Chris Wondolowski (San Jose Earthquakes)
19. Graham Zusi (Sporting Kansas City)
20. Gyasi Zardes (LA Galaxy)

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MLS GW20 Tips – Fantasy Major League Soccer This article was written by Guy Sanchez (FootyFantastic)

Follow @Guy_M_Sanchez

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Don’t forget that Guy does have his own MLS blog and we highly recommend a visit as it expands even more upon the current GW – http://www.footyfantastic.com/