MLS GW23 Tips – Fantasy Major League Soccer

MLS GW23 Tips – Fantasy Major League Soccer

I’m happy to report that the heat has moved on from the Northwest corner of the U.S. And with cooler temperatures, I’m able to bring a better brand of advice for this pivotal DGW that features four teams that have a ton of talent. Remember, transfers need to be locked in on Wednesday this week — and this is one of those weeks that you really don’t want to miss out on.

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#1 — Know your DGW Teams

The last time we had a DGW, we were “treated” to Columbus and Chicago. I was less than thrilled with the prospect of loading up for too long on either of those teams. Chicago were, and still are, pretty awful (their win vs. FC Dallas being their highlight of the year). Columbus has a good attack, but their defense is absolute garbage in the clutch (Orlando’s five goals against them this week felt almost inevitable).

This week is so much better for finding players that will not only serve you well for the double, but have a high enough quality to them that you can feel good about carrying them for a few weeks also. Montreal, Toronto, Orlando and NYRB all play twice this week — and even though each team has a deficiency, the sum of their parts are enough to field an awesome squad.

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Some thoughts on each squad:

Montreal
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[/three_fourth]Montreal play twice at home this week, and that’s a great sign for those who already own Toia or Ciman. Montreal have surprisingly only kept three clean sheets all year, but two of those have come in their last two home games. So the timing couldn’t be better for jumping on a defensive unit that really is starting to play more cohesively.

In the midfield for the Impact, you have to look at Piatti as still being a great value at $10.4. He’s in great form over his last six matches, and during that time he has not scored anything less than 5 points. In fact. his average score over that time frame is actually 8.3 fantasy points per match. But maybe you’re all tied up financially? If you’re looking for a budget mid, try Marco Donadel as a punt. Donadel only costs $7.5 (and has 0.1% ownership) but he’s been a nailed-on starter for Montreal for several weeks. For the last five matches, Donadel has played 90 minutes in each game and averaged a score of 5 ppg during that time. Added bonus: in his last two home games he has a goal and assist. Don’t get me wrong, take Piatti if you can — only if you’re in a pinch would you take a lesser play like Donadel.

As far as it goes for a forward from Montreal, leave Drogba alone until he gets all his training in order and actually starts to get in game shape. Surprisingly, more people own Drogba than Donadel at this point. Those owners obviously don’t take tips from this site. The only real option up top for Montreal now is Dominic Oduro — and at $7.0, he’s a bit of a steal considering that he has three goals in his last four matches. He should be able to continue his form this week.

Montreal are playing against the NYRB and DC United this week. DC should be the easiest of the two games since DC’s last four away games have seen them only score two goals total and suffer two shutouts. The bigger problem for owning Montreal is the fact that they follow this week with an immediate bye. So even though Montreal has some great players in a great situation, you will have to resist the urge to buy more than you can safely sell off next round. I wouldn’t recommend owning any more than three Montreal players as long as one of the players is Toia. Toia is cheap enough to sit on the bench next week, but the other two players will have to be sold.

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Toronto
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[/three_fourth]Toronto are garbage defensively. Not even the fact that they place twice at home is going to help them much with two high-powered offenses coming to town (Orlando and SKC). If you have any kind of a budget, look elsewhere for your DGW defensive needs. Toronto have gone five straight games without a shutout and they’ve given up 15 goals in that span; a 3.0 GA average isn’t what you want to see over the course of a month.

For the midfield, there is only one man; there is Giovinco. His price is steep at $12.6, but he’s the second leading point-getter with 148 on the year. There may be some worry about his fitness after being subbed out at half last game, but that was due more to the Toronto red card than it was his health. Michael Bradley is still out with injury, and aside from him, there really isn’t anybody else in Toronto’s midfield that’s worth a look right now.

For Toronto’s forwards? Just take a pass. Altidore will be out the first game due to his straight red card — and he could be penalized an additional game on top of that. But even if he wasn’t banned, he wasn’t a worthy pick-up. Your only other option for Toronto at forward would be Robbie Findley, a pitiful fantasy forward who has one goal on the year…and that was in Round 1. Just buy Giovinco assuming he’s healthy at the start of the game.

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New York Red Bulls
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[/three_fourth]In defense, there’s really only one name that everybody is talking about: Matt Miazga. Since his return to the starting lineup six weeks ago, he’s averaged 6.5 points per game. And that’s not bad considering his price of $5.8. Outside of Miazga, the options are a bit more limited, and a bit more expensive. And considering that they’ll play away to Montreal and then at home to NYCFC, the options for another defender from NYRB seem a bit more bleak.

The midfield is open to interpretation depending on your budget, however. Dax McCarty at $8.5 is reasonably priced and has five assists in his last three matches. Sacha Kljestan is a bit pricier at $9.5, but he’s apparently taking penalties now. He also has two goals in the last two games. I would advise to avoid Lloyd Sam for now as his minutes have been spotty. Even with Sam’s omission however, there are still good choices to be had here.

And for forwards, it really does come down to your budget. If you can afford Bradley Wright-Phillips, he’s a serious contender to get on the goals. With four goals and two assists in his last five matches, he’s really rounded back into some kind of form. And on the other end of the spectrum, you have Mike Grella at $6.2 — but his return on investment has come back down to earth a bit. He’s been a nailed-on starter, but over the same five matches as BWP he’s only scored one goal and given two assists; even at his price he could be a gamble this week.

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Orlando
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[/three_fourth]The Lions will have a good opportunity to score big points this week on both ends of the ball for fantasy owners. They start out by going to Toronto which should be good for their offense, and then they come home to play Philly which ‘could’ then benefit the defense. But the defense has been shaky for Orlando regardless of the setting, so be warned. Their value play, Ramos, has been sidelined by injury — so his $5.2 price tag isn’t going to benefit anybody. The only sneaky play this week would be to add Collin who just notched a goal against Columbus. But at $8.3, he’s going to force your to downgrade an attacking position.

The midfield has really opened up with options for Orlando though, and maybe you find your value there. Outside of Kaka, who is still the machine that drives this team, you now have players like Ceren and Higuita contributing more to the attack. Ceren only costs $6.6, and he has 20 points over his last three matches. I would still recommend Kaka over any other defender or midfielder from Orlando, but if he’s out of your reach at $11.8, you still have viable options to choose from.

And finally, Cyle Larin has been a revelation since coming back from Gold Cup duty with Canada. He’s now has 11 goals on the year which puts him on the pace to absolutely smash the rookie scoring record. Larin is quickly becoming the MLS version of 14/15 Harry Kane. His absurd price of $6.2 means that every team should own him based on his points per dollar ratio alone. To put it in perspective, his 11 goals put him just four goals off the league lead, and he’s only two goals behind Giovinco and Villa. Seeing as how his first match of the week will be played in Canada, he’s probably a player worth having going into this week.

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#2 — Who should not be sold this week?

Now that we’ve covered every DGW team, we still have the matter of what to do with the rest of your squad. First we should note that FC Dallas and New England are on byes this week, so there isn’t any sense in hanging onto a player like Castillo or Diaz if you have them. But outside of that, we have a few issues that will cause some owners some heartburn.

You should know that even with this very favorable roster of DGW players, very few owners are going to take that fatal step into saddling themselves with eleven DGW players. Even though that option looks attractive, especially if you have a wildcard, loading up completely on these four teams would be a hinderance in the long run with Montreal and NYRB having upcoming bye weeks. So what is that magic number to have for DGW players? I think that aggressive teams looking to make a push in the rankings will have 7-9 players that play twice, and conservative players looking to keep their team diversified going forward will probably have around 4-5.

So that leaves anywhere from 2-6 players on your roster that are going to have a regular week. Which ones stay, and which have to go?

The first order of business is to seriously consider keeping any LA players that you may have. Even if you have somebody as expensive as Keane, or even Gerrard, their home fixture against Seattle is too good not to have in your favor. Seattle have lost 8 of their last 10 matches and LA are beasts at home.

Secondly, what about David Villa (or even Pirlo or Angelino for that matter)? NYCFC are still on the goals, and Villa is showing no signs of slowing down. I think he’s a player that must be kept going into another edition of the NY Derby. As for the other players in NYCFC? It’s up to your discretion, but the NY game is looking to be a high scoring affair with both teams finally getting healthy with the right players.

As for other popular players, this may be the week you finally sever the cord with your Columbus Crew mainstays. Columbus play on the road again this week in Colorado and will then have a bye week. Their value at this point is minimal until their schedule swings back in their favor.

Aside from that, feel free to hold on to any budget defenders you may have. Last week saw 41 goals scored, so there really isn’t any surefire way to peg a clean sheet in these coming weeks with many of the offenses in the league finally clicking. You may as well leave your keeper alone and stick with whatever defender group you have in the back that isn’t costing you any money.

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#3 – The Captain Picks

This week’s captain picks will be what really sets the teams apart. Out of all of the quality players we’ll see twice, you know that one of them will stand out above the rest and come out of this stretch with some serious points. And, on the flip side of that coin, this is the MLS, so you know that one of your players may suffer a rotation benching and only score 2 points for you. So keep that in mind when selecting your captain. A gut feeling this week may be more beneficial than any statistical study. Just make sure to check the starting lineups on that first game prior to locking in your picks and your captain.

The Top Tier — Giovinco. If healthy, Giovinco playing twice at home — without Altidore there to screw everything up — may be the easiest captain pick ever. He does have the heel bruise issue, but when the coach is leaving it up to the player’s discretion to start or not, you know that it can’t be too serious. And Giovinco is the kind of player who wants to start. If he’s in the starting lineup on Wednesday, it would be hard not to captain him.

The Second Tier — Larin. The only DGW player that’s giving Gio a real run for his money in form lately is Larin. It’s not often that a player follows up a hat trick with a brace, but Larin did just that. With Kaka occupying the middle of the pitch, Larin has found ways to put himself into position to get great chances. He’s playing with the intelligence of a player much older than himself. Now whether that’s Kaka guiding him into the path of the ball, or his own intuition, is really irrelevant. The fact is that he’s scoring huge tallies lately and must be taken seriously.

The Differential Pick — Piatti. Piatti should be higher up on this list, probably. But his returns have been steady as opposed to explosive. Like I said, his 8.3 ppg over his last six fixtures is nothing to turn your nose up to. But that’s the result of a consistent and steady return, not from hat tricks. Many people will pick up Piatti this round, and many will captain him. He may just not be the highest scoring of your options — but he will provide you with something substantial either way.

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MLS GW23 Tips – Fantasy Major League Soccer This article was written by Guy Sanchez (FootyFantastic)

Follow @Guy_M_Sanchez

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Don’t forget that Guy does have his own MLS blog and we highly recommend a visit as it expands even more upon the current GW – http://www.footyfantastic.com/