MLS GW25 Tips – Fantasy Major League Soccer

MLS GW25 Tips – Fantasy Major League Soccer

In Round 24, two things were confirmed about the MLS. The first thing is that Giovinco is better without Altidore, and the second is that Villa is better without Lampard (at least in his current mode of being pouty and disinterested). Of those two facts, one is pretty much set in stone, and the other can be changed with time. Altidore has a galactic ability to transform himself into a black hole that sucks the talent from those around him, and there’s no cure for that in his current situation. But Lampard can still be great, especially in a league with less talented players than he’s used to. And unlike Altidore, Lampard can make those around him better if he so chooses. It’s just up to Lamps to decide if he wants to turn that corner and be productive in NYC. And it’s up to fantasy owners to decide how valuable Villa is in a double with the risk that Lampard could return at any moment and not play up to snuff – but more on that later.

What we have in Round 25 are four teams in a DGW. And with those four teams, we have some tough decisions to make – the Lampard/Altidore problems are just the tip of the iceberg. For starters, the teams we have in a DGW this week are Columbus, NYCFC, San Jose and SKC. And in addition to that, we have to maneuver around the bye weeks for NYRB and New England. Further compounding the roster selection dilemma this week is the fact that we have Chicago, Colorado, Houston and NYRB on a DGW next week. It really is a bit of a mess, and this is one of those weeks when even the best laid plans can be undone. But let’s make a plan anyway.

We’ll start with breaking down each team on a DGW, and then we’ll wrap it up by hashing out the other issues that surround this pair of rounds.

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#1) The DGW Teams

#1A — Columbus Crew vs. NYCFC (H), vs SKC (H)
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[/three_fourth]Columbus are the only team this week with two home games. Ordinarily, any team on a pair of home fixtures would be easy fodder for picking any player from the back line in an attempt to nab a clean sheet. But with Columbus, nothing’s that simple.

Prior to playing Chicago in Round 20, Columbus hadn’t had a clean sheet since Round 7. In fact, they only have four clean sheets on the year total. In their four matches since playing Chicago in Round 20, the Crew have allowed a staggering ten goals. And when you consider that the teams coming to play them this week have significantly more talent than Chicago, it’s not looking very appetizing burning a transfer for any Crew defenders.

But if you can’t be dissuaded and you’d rather take the defensive gamble on the home side, try to limit your options from Columbus as much as possible in the back. Avoid Steve Clark ($5.7, GK) though; the Crew Keeper is only averaging 3.75 points per match over the last four, and his price really doesn’t match his output. As for a defender? I can’t in good faith recommend one of those either. Just make your selection a cheap one if you must have one.

The midfield is better for Columbus. Ethan Finlay ($9.0) is a stellar player while playing at home. Finlay’s last three home matches have netted 32 points for his owners, and his last three away games have only produced a dismal 11 points. So with that information, why not skip the defense and just invest a bit more in Finlay? If Finlay is out of your price range though, Tony Tchani ($7.3) is a bit of a sleeper pick that can potentially score some points; the midfielder actually has a goal and assist over his last three matches.

As for the forwards…you have the human shotgun blast, Kei Kamara ($9.6). Kamara will shoot a lot, and he’ll score some. His numbers, like nearly every player in the MLS, tend to be better at home. But Kamara has really rounded into a form that makes him a bit impervious to fixture struggles, and the striker has five goals over his last five matches – and he’s only one goal ahead of Giovinco in the Golden Boot race, so expect him to try to extend that lead this week. Also, Federico Higuain ($10.4) has two goals and an assist in his last four matches. The odds would say that he produces something in this round, but you’d be paying a premium price for his differential value. If you want to be a hipster and be painfully original, you could pair Higuain and Kamara together and ignore the other forwards this week. But at a minimum, have Kamara either way.

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1B — NYCFC vs. Columbus (A), LA (A)
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[/three_fourth]If you thought that Columbus had a bad defense, you haven’t been keeping up with NYCFC and their totally unbelievable three clean sheets on the year. NYCFC are the inverse to Columbus this week in that they play two away fixtures against teams that score a ton at home. So let’s make this a simple bullet point and say that chasing a clean sheet with NYCFC isn’t the way to go. The lone value for the NYCFC back line is Angelino ($5.0). Angelino will at least be present in the attack and get forward to provide constant crosses into the box. In his limited time in the starting lineup he’s provided a pair of assists and earned a few sly bonus points. His price makes him a good gamble as an attacker out of the back as long as you aren’t scared off by taking a -1 when NY concedes a pair of goals.

The midfield for NYCFC is where all of the doubt comes into play. Unlike any other team in the league, the midfielders for NYC will more heavily dictate how well the forwards (are able to) play. Right now, Lampard is the real headache for owners. Nobody is thinking of actually buying Lampard for their team, but his effect on the pace of the game was a negative factor in his first start. Regardless of his injury level, it’s highly doubtful that Lampard is deemed fit enough to play two games in a congested schedule, so his effect there will be somewhat minimized. And as a complete conjecture on the part of this writer, I would say that Lampard will aim to feature in the LA game when he’s playing against the likes of more world-class stars. I would expect him to be rested for the Columbus game if that’s his plan. Again, that’s just conjecture, but the math pencils out.

Pirlo…eh, what are you going to do? At his 1.1% level of ownership, nobody is really thinking of picking him up either. The good news is that he’s at least shown that he can pick out a pass that makes even the most skeptical believe in a higher power. For a moment there in his last match Pirlo showed the world he was still a capable player. His athletic prowess isn’t there like before, but he can still play.

The player that’s on everybody’s mind this week is really Kwadwo Poku ($6.9). Fans have been clamoring for Poku to play more minutes, and the young player duly delivered in his last outing. And with his goal and assist against DC last weekend, he’s made a case to remain a starter. Consider this: in the two games this year that Poku has played 90 minutes, his fantasy scores have been tallies of 14 and 16 points. All the kid needs is a chance to log the minutes. Now, this being MLS, if Lampard and Pirlo decide that they want a roster spot, Poku may be benched. For his price though, I suspect Poku could be a good play this week seeing how hungry he is to continually prove himself worthy.

And for forwards you have David Villa ($11.4). Villa sits third in the Golden Boot race, and like Kamara, he’ll be looking for his chances to make up ground. Villa has proven himself all year, but his price is now at a premium. Many fantasy owners will think that he can’t be trusted with Lampard looming. I tend to think that squaring off one on one with Kamara and playing on the big stage in LA will be sufficient motivation this week. I still consider Villa to be a solid play this round.

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#1C — San Jose vs. SKC (A), DC (A)
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[/three_fourth]San Jose are undoubtedly the weakest of the four teams on the double this week, and the fact that they also are playing two away games isn’t doing them any favours. Since their surprise win in Seattle back in June, San Jose have gone on to lose four straight away matches. And against the likes of strong home sides in SKC and DC, their fortunes aren’t looking likely to change any time soon.

If you’re looking to snatch up any San Jose defenders, proceed with caution. SJ have conceded eleven goals in the course of their four game losing streak while playing on the road. David Bingham ($5.5, GK) has only managed 3.75 points per game in this stretch of away games. Unless Bingham is able to stop a penalty, there really isn’t much hope for him to provide any real value for fantasy owners. The only play for the SJ defense that may be worthwhile is Clarence Goodson ($8.2, D). Goodson finally returned to the starting lineup in his last match and was able to notch 13 points after a goal and bonuses. And in his previous 90 minute start, Goodson was able to provide an assist. But Goodson comes at a premium price for that offensive potential, so it really depends on how you have your team situated financially.

In the midfield, Matias Perez Garcia ($8.5) has been dynamic. But he’s also been perpetually battling injury. His last match only saw him play 49 minutes, and it’s no guarantee that he plays a full 90 in either upcoming match as he’s worked back into full fitness. The kid has skill though, and when he’s playing he’s easily one of the best players that SJ have on the field. Right now he’s only good for a differential play if you have the money to spare.

For the forwards, you have the options of Chris Wondolowski ($10.9) and Quincy Amarikwa ($7.0). Wondo is in a bit of a lull since he’s had more talent put around him. His last four matches have all been 2 point scores for his fantasy owners. It’s easy to forget then that Wondo has really come in under the radar this year with a respectable nine goals scored. He has potential to get back on track in these two game series. Amarikwa is a bit more attractive due to his price and recent production though. He’s averaging 6.6 points per game over his last five matches, and he has four goals and an assist in that time frame as well. Simply put, Amarikwa has adjusted well to playing in San Jose, but he’ll still have to find a way to keep those numbers up away from home.

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#1D — SKC vs. SJ (H), Columbus (A)
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[/three_fourth]SKC have the most balanced opportunity for success this round. Not only do they get to start the week against a SJ team that is poor away from home, but they get to take pot shots all night in the second game against a woeful Columbus defence. Any part of your squad this week can be rounded out with an SKC player.

Defensively, Tim Melia ($5.0, GK) is the best value for the price. After an impressive run of clean sheets earlier in the year, SKC have found it hard to repeat those results in recent games. Regardless, the San Jose match will give owners the best shot this week of securing the CS bonus points and SKC shouldn’t be overlooked. Kevin Ellis ($6.6, D) is probably the best bet for a defender this week. Ellis’s last five matches have him scoring at a pace of 7.2 points per game. Combine that stat with his three goals on the year and you’ll find that you really can’t afford to pass the guy up this round.

For the SKC midfield, the obvious choice is going to be Benny Feilhaber ($10.8). The man simply can’t stop himself from scoring. The remarkable thing about Benny is that over the course of this entire year, he has only once scored 2 points for owners. He simply doesn’t play mediocre games. He’s also coming into this round with great form; his 9 points per game average over his last five matches are a testament to that. It would be inconceivable not to have Benny on your team this week. He’s the player you have to have simply to keep pace with the rest of the pack.

The forward situation is going to be a bit more difficult for owners to pick the right option. Nemeth ($8.5) and Dwyer ($10.5) are split nearly right down the middle at 6% and 5% ownership, respectively. Both of the forwards have been involved in the offense recently, but Dwyer is the lock to play 90 when he starts. The $2.0 discount for Nemeth may be worth it if you’re in a pinch, but either way, I expect both of these guys to get in on the goals against the defenses they’re facing.

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#2 — What do you do with Giovinco this round?
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[/three_fourth]As I mentioned above, Giovinco isn’t the same player when Altidore is around. And Altidore is healthy enough to play now, so there may be an issue with owning Giovinco until somebody has enough brass to simply leave Altidore out of the starting lineup up in Toronto. Reader @BuckmanUnited gave a good breakdown showing how stark the difference is for fantasy owners when Jozy is on the field as opposed to when he isn’t. Basically, when Jozy plays 20 minutes or less, Giovinco averages 10 fantasy points. When Altidore plays more than 20 minutes, Giovinco’s average score plummets all the way down to 6.67 points. This isn’t to bash on Altidore, it’s to show that fantasy owners will have some real thinking to do over the next two rounds considering that Giovinco now costs a staggering $12.9. Any combination of DGW players could be purchased over this round and the next with Giovinco out of your fantasy lineups.

Toronto have only scored a single goal over their last two matches, but they are coming up now on two straight home fixtures — and one of those fixtures is against Orlando, a team that Toronto recently hammered to the tune of 4-1. It’s no easy task to give advice on whether or not to drop Giovinco until Toronto is settled. The smart move is to keep the best player in the league for at least his next couple of home games. But the savvy move would be selling him and buying a pair of DGW players that could potentially net you 360 minutes over the same timeframe. It’s a personal choice for each player, but it’s a move that may need a bit of meditation and personal reflection prior to committing yourself one way or another.

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#3 — Rapid Fire
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[/three_fourth]Obafemi Martins ($11.8) stormed back onto the scene this week for Seattle, and Seattle wasted no time in getting back into the winning ways. Martins scored two goals in just over an hour of play and showed why he’s widely considered one of the best strikers in the league. The problem with owning Martins will be his huge price and the fact that Seattle don’t have a single DGW left this season. Further complicating matters is the fact that from here on out, there are only three rounds which won’t have a team playing twice. If Martins is able to follow up with another big game though, he may be elevated to a player you’ll have to consider once again regardless of fixtures.
Remember that in two weeks (GW27) we’ll have ten teams on a bye and we’ll have our second league-wide wildcard. Because of the impending wildcard, feel free to take some chances this week because you can always correct your errors without penalty in Round 27.
Start to take special note of Montreal’s form over these next few weeks. In Round 29 we’ll see the unprecedented triple game week for the Impact. Take note of Drogba and Piatti. Try to find that midfielder that’s coming into form. Only the MLS would do something so absurd as to have a TGW, so you may as well be prepared for when it does finally happen.

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#4 — Captain Picks
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[/three_fourth]Top Tier — Feilhaber — For all the reasons listed above, Feilhaber will be your best bet to give you double digit scoring right out of the gate. He will probably be the most popular pick of the options available, so he may be more of a defensive-minded selection just to keep pace. Don’t be surprised if you don’t see a ton of green arrows in your rankings based on choosing him alone.

Second Tier — Kamara — Kamara is either boom or bust. He doesn’t have the steady incremental bonus points that you see Feilhaber get each game. But with Kamara you have the constant threat of a brace or a hat trick, especially when he’s at home. The other side of that coin then is the fact that he is prone to take seven or eight shots a game, and sometimes he’ll miss the net completely. He could come out and score 12 points or 2 points. But the potential is definitely there for a big week.

The Differential Pick — Villa — Even though Villa is playing back to back away games, he’s going to be aiming to put some tallies up against Kamara to start the week off. And then when he plays against the stars of LA, he’ll want to continue to put on a good show for the fans and at least do his part to drum up the LA vs. NY rivalry that every American league is so desperate to sell to advertisers.

Good luck this week everybody. We’re going to need it.

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MLS GW25 Tips – Fantasy Major League Soccer This article was written by Guy Sanchez (FootyFantastic)

Follow @Guy_M_Sanchez

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Don’t forget that Guy does have his own MLS blog and we highly recommend a visit as it expands even more upon the current GW – http://www.footyfantastic.com/