MLS GW30 Tips – Fantasy Major League Soccer

MLS GW30 Tips – Fantasy Major League Soccer

In GW29, nine of the eleven Dream Team players were from DGW teams. What that means is that you didn’t really even need to try that hard to pull in a good score if you simply defaulted and loaded up on as many active DGW players as possible right from the start. Sure, there were a few surprise rotations, and more than a few surprising results, but it felt like the strategy was a bit removed from the game this past weekend.
This week will be a different ball game entirely. Whereas we had very strong teams to choose from last week, this week gives us considerably less firepower to work with. The teams on a DGW this round are Chicago, Houston, Montreal and SKC. How do you like them apples? It’s reasonable to think that people will be a bit heavy on Montreal and SKC, but do you really want to load up on Chicago and Houston? Haven’t we been down this road before? Let’s get to work and figure this all out.

*NOTE* Cut-off for roster changes is Wednesday at 8PM EST.

#1) Take chances, the wildcard is just around the corner
Before we get into the meat of the DGW teams, you should remember that the first of our last two wildcards comes in just two weeks. Maybe you’re looking to buck the trend a bit? Maybe you want to bet on that off-chance that Giovinco and Feilhaber simply don’t produce. Well, if you’re feeling cavalier, you can invest all you want into the differentials this week and not really have to worry about being stuck with a mistake for too long.

An added bonus: there are no bye weeks next week. So if you decide to go deep into Chicago and Houston to try to strike gold, you don’t even have to worry about having to sell anybody in the next round to make your roster complete. And even if you’re planning on going the more traditional route and picking up proven superstars — you can rest easy that there isn’t a landmine coming in the near future that’s going to leave you short-staffed. With all of the pain and misery that the FMLS game put us through this year, not seeing a bye week on the schedule outside of the wildcard round is very refreshing.

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#2) The DGW teams

Chicago v MTL (A), TOR (A)
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[/three_fourth]What do we do with Chicago? They’re in last place in their conference, but they have a certain appeal now with a couple of new faces. Mathematically they’re still alive in the playoff chase — but nobody with any kind of sense is pegging them to make the greatest surge in MLS history at this point. They’re kind of an enigma. There is some real talent in Chicago, they just can’t seem to put it all together.

If you’re looking for a defender, you should know that Chicago hasn’t kept a clean sheet in since the beginning of August. Also adding to their woes is that fact that they are the only team this week with a pair of road fixtures. And do we honestly think that they’re even going to have a prayer of keeping a respectable scoreline when they have to travel to face Drogba and then Giovinco? Let’s just do all of ourselves a favor and skip Chicago’s backline and keeper. If you feel like taking a chance and try to make up a few points, do so at your own risk.

The midfield is a bit better than the defensive situation, but not by much. Harry Shipp ($8.2) finally found some level of scoring outside of his typical 1-2 point performance (he’s averaging 4.3 points per game over his last three matches), but his price point makes his current level of production still grossly under par. The one shining light for Chicago in the midfield is Michael Stephens ($6.1); his last five matches have him at a rate of 5.2 points per game, and that’s not too bad for his price.

The real dilemma is going to be upfront for Chicago. Gilberto ($9.0) is now healthy again and he’s always good for a shot or two on goal. Igboananike ($7.6) and Accam ($9.2) are going to be your main targets though. It’s anybody’s guess who gets the goals between these two. But while we don’t want the Chicago defense, we do want to play forwards against the backlines of Montreal and Toronto. Toronto still can’t keep a clean sheet, and this same Chicago team put up three goals on Montreal the last time they met. So, if you’re in a pinch, grab Igboananike — but if you have the cash, grab Accam.

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Houston v SKC (H), COL (H)
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[/three_fourth]Houston gives us our first of two teams with double home games. The problem with Houston is that their record just hasn’t been very good through the summer. Since the beginning of July, Houston have played twelve matches, and they’ve only won four of those. The good news is that Houston find themselves only six points out of the playoffs, and they still have five matches left to play. Making the playoffs is still a real possibility for this team, so look for them to come out strong.

Defensively, this team isn’t really that potent. They’ve only kept six clean sheets on the year, and the clean sheets they do have are really intermittent. Looking on the bright side though, five of their six clean sheets have come at home, so looking at this team on a double home fixture isn’t the worst idea. Tyler Deric ($5.0) is probably the best pick on the board considering that Colorado are one of their fixtures. This team is pretty banged up in the back with their defenders, so starting any of their healthy options from David Horst ($8.3) to Sheanon Williams ($7.8) pretty much means that you’re going to get a guaranteed starter for the pair of games.

In the midfield, the top pick has to be Brad Davis ($10.5). Davis has really come in under the radar here in the final stage of the season; he has two assists and two goals through his last five matches. If Davis is out of your budget though, Ricardo Clark ($7.2) is now back in action and offers a decent value for what he’s capable of producing.

Up front, Will Bruin ($7.9) has finally dropped back down to the level we expected to see him at — meaning he’s scoring 2 points per game. Bruin hasn’t scored a goal in four weeks, yet you never quite know when he’s primed to go off. Erick Torres ($9.9) is by far their best striker, but he’s having trouble finding minutes right now. Until he consistently plays more than 45 minutes, you may want to shy away from him. I will say, however, that if Torres is in the starting lineup on Wednesday, he could be a sneaky pick if he’s afforded minutes in this congested schedule.

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Montreal v CHI (H), DC (H)
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[/three_fourth]Montreal are the second team with double home fixtures – and you have to like their odds against the competition they’re facing. The only problem with Montreal is that you don’t know how much their starters are going to play during this round. Montreal have the most games to make up of any team, and it’s only natural to think that we’ll see some rotation with them. Montreal are probably even more comfortable with a rotation now that their second unit was able to keep a 1-1 draw against San Jose a while back.

I feel like we’re always talking about Montreal since they’re so frequently on a DGW these days. So in the interest of time and space conservation, let’s just briefly rehash what we’ve said a million times about this team.

Bush ($5.4) is a decent option, but he’s expensive. Ciman ($7.2) is now back in the lineup, but he’s expensive and Donny Toia ($5.2) is always the better financial option. Piatti ($10.5) is infinitely more valuable now that Didier Drogba ($10.4) is in the lineup.

Does that sufficiently cover Montreal for everybody? There’s only so much that I can write about this team on a DGW round after round. Look, Montreal will be good this week. You probably should have some of their players. Will all of their players play both rounds? Like I said, probably not. But even if these guys were playing a single, they’d still be worth it given the matchups.

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SKC v HOU (A), SEA (H)
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[/three_fourth]I’m wary of SKC this week — and their erratic play is the least of my concerns right now. SKC are going to play three matches in seven days; not only do they have these two fixtures above, but they’re also playing in the US Open Cup next Wednesday. And this Cup match is the Final, so you have to assume that they’ll be focused on winning a bit of hardware this season.

So with that being said, can they really afford to trot out their best eleven players three times in seven days? I’m betting that they don’t. Outside of a defender or utility midfielder, I can’t see them playing the likes Feilhaber or Zusi for three consecutive matches at 90 minutes.

And their fixtures prior to the Cup Final aren’t that great. It’s projected to be 94 degrees in Houston on Wednesday (34 Celsius for you Euro meteorologists). Playing in that kind of heat in the first leg of a three game stint isn’t going to be doing anybody any favors. And then turning around and coming home to chase after Dempsey and Martins is going to be hell as well. Oh, also add the fact that Feilhaber is one yellow card away from suspension — so let’s hope he doesn’t get frustrated and kick somebody in the Houston heat.

Looking in the back for SKC, Melia has been injured, and it’s not clear who’s going to start in goal quite yet. Ellis ($6.6) has been one of the lone bright spots on their defense — but even he may feel the rotation woes this week. You can take your chances on Feilhaber ($10.6) and Zusi ($10.9) — but only blame yourself if they end up playing restricted minutes. And wrapping it up, Dom Dwyer ($10.1) is overpriced no matter how many games this team is playing.

*sigh* Just be careful with SKC.

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#3) The holdovers from last week

Since scoring five goals against NYC, LA have been shutout in three straight matches. This seems almost impossible. Many people are still holding on to some combination of Keane, Gerrard and Dos Santos — and you have to figure that LA can’t continue this lack of form forever. LA play at home this week against Dallas, and that might not be the best matchup for them. LA and Dallas have already split a pair of matches this year with each match going 2-1. I don’t predict a shutout on either side, but bringing in LA on their premium prices could be a huge risk.

Giovinco bounced back into form last weekend. We all knew he would. I would have to think that a traveling Chicago team gets absolutely eaten up by Toronto this week — so I would keep Giovinco in your lineup. Seriously resist the urge to sell him.

If you still have Kei Kamara in your lineup, consider keeping him as well. The depth of forward isn’t great for this DGW, and Columbus shouldn’t have any trouble putting up points on a Timbers team that can’t win a game to save their lives.

New England are coming off their DGW, and they get a home match against Philly this week. I still like all of the same New England players from last week, and the only one I’d recommend selling would be Fagundez due to his benching in the second leg of their last round.

Most people stocked up on NYRB players last round, and those same players are going to be at home against Orlando this week. Orlando barely snuck past Chicago on the road — they should get crushed by a much better New York side. Don’t sell your Red Bulls players if at all possible.

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#4) The Captain Picks
Top Tier — Drogba / Piatti. For the sake of picking a DGW player, I think either Drogba or Piatti have to be considered for the armband this week. Playing against Chicago shouldn’t be too challenging, and the last time these two met in Montreal resulted in a Drogba hat trick.

Second Tier — Giovinco. Giovinco can outscore any DGW player with a single match. He’s proven that time and time again. The same Chicago side that Montreal are playing will only be a bit more worn down when they go to Toronto. Giovinco should capitalize on their tired legs right off the bat.

The Upset Pick — Brad Davis. Davis won’t be in many lineups simply because he’s been ‘out of sight, out of mind’ for so long. But his numbers are there. His production is back. He could really produce some big point totals this week in a double home fixture.

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MLS GW30 Tips – Fantasy Major League Soccer This article was written by Guy Sanchez (FootyFantastic)

Follow @Guy_M_Sanchez

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Don’t forget that Guy does have his own MLS blog and we highly recommend a visit as it expands even more upon the current GW – http://www.footyfantastic.com/