MLS GW33 Tips – Fantasy Major League Soccer

MLS GW33 Tips – Fantasy Major League Soccer

*NOTE* Game-week 32 starts Wednesday at 7.00PM ET (USA), that’s 12.00am in the UK (technically Thursday).

This MLS season is coming quickly to a close — only two weeks left to make your mark on what has been an exhausting season to try to follow and game-plan for your fantasy roster. And in true MLS fashion, we’re not quite yet out of the woods in dealing with the game’s difficulty.

This week sees a return to action for all clubs. Six of those clubs will have a DGW — the caveat is that the round will extend all the way to Wednesday October 21 to accommodate all of the games. So instead of starting the final round of the year with a team on a DGW, the MLS team has decided to still schedule a midweek game next week…but it’s going to count on this week’s scores. We’ll get into more of this in a bit, but just be aware that the rules have changed for this round.

We have a lot to cover today, so let’s just get right to it.

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#1) Understanding this week’s playing field – and what is your goal for the last two rounds?
The first thing that needs to be said is that you have a wildcard this week. First and foremost, remember that you can make moves left and right depending on any news or rumors you might hear about a player’s availability or health.

Now, like I was saying above, we have six teams on a double this week; FC Dallas, NYRB, Portland, Real Salt Lake, SKC and Toronto will all feature twice in the span of the eight days that this round is scheduled to last. Three matches will start on Wednesday October 14 (deadline for transfers is 7:00 ET), but you will only get to see the lineups for Toronto v NYRB prior to locking in your picks for the week.

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[/three_fourth]The real problem with the Wednesday matches is that we still have players away on international duty. The big names that will be affected are Fabian Castillo, Sebastian Giovinco, Jozy Altidore and Michael Bradley. But in all honesty, we don’t know how many players will come back in time and be fit to play over the weekend. In theory, every player should be back in time to play for the weekend, but depending on their level of rest and their team’s playoff positioning, we could get a few surprise omissions in the weekend offerings.

And this is the real downfall to having a playoff system instead of a promotion/relegation system. If a team like the LA Galaxy are already locked into the playoffs, there isn’t as much incentive to push Robbie Keane to play a third match in a week’s time as he comes home from Ireland. It’s going to be touch and go for several stars this weekend, and there really isn’t a great predictor for deciding who’s going to come back and play 90 minutes and who won’t. For a full list of players out on international duty use this list here – International call-ups

But what are you playing for at this point? I don’t mean to ask ‘why’ you continue to play in this league, but rather what is your goal? If you’re still playing for a higher ranking, you need to very carefully consider each roster spot that you assign this weekend. If you’re playing in a head to head league though, you have to know that next week is the Finals for every head to head league with a knockout round structure — and maybe you want to use the wildcard to build the best team for the final game of the year. Either way, this wildcard (unfortunately) will probably make or break most teams regardless of what they’re trying to achieve. This is the most critical wildcard of the year, and it would be a shame to waste it.

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#2) Picking players based on the playoff scenarios
In my example above, I said that you may not want to sink a bunch of money into a player like Robbie Keane because his team have already clinched the playoff berth. It’s hard to understand what a coach’s motivation is going to be in end-of-year scenarios. For the teams that have already clinched a playoff berth, do they continue to throw the star’s into games hoping to win home field advantage — or will they value resting their big players so that they’ll have 100% fitness when the playoffs actually start?

Or look at the NYRB, for example. The Red Bulls just need a single point to clinch home field advantage throughout the playoffs, and they even have a game in hand to get that point over the second placed team. Will the Red Bulls start to rest players to try to make a deep playoff run — or will their first-year coach decide that regular play is a better risk so that he can keep the team’s chemistry in place?

The team’s at the top and bottom of the table are only going to give you headaches. The fact of the matter is that we simply don’t know how a coach is going to handle already qualifying or being eliminated from postseason play.

My advice: look at the bubble teams. The only constant that you’re going to find is that the teams that still haven’t clinched a spot in the playoffs will be throwing everything at doing so. Their motivation is easy to understand — and it’s predictable.

In the East, Orlando sit 4 points off the pace in the playoff hunt, and they’ll be looking to overtake Montreal or Toronto in a miracle bid to qualify. But also remember that Columbus and New England haven’t clinched a berth yet either — and they will be desperate to do so as quickly as possible.

In the West, the picture is more wide open, and expect to see some fireworks as a few teams may need to play until the final night of the regular season to see who’s in and who’s out of the running. Portland sit tied with San Jose for the sixth and final spot, but Houston and Real Salt Lake are only a game behind them. Conversely, Seattle and SKC will need to continue winning to ensure their spots in the playoffs.

Like I said, maybe the big names from LA and NY look like the wise investment with a wildcard, but the bubble teams will be where all the action is taking place.

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#3) Know your DGW teams
So as to keep this article from being too large – let’s just go over each team briefly and give their league standing situation, key injuries and absences and which player(s) may be good for your roster until the end of the season.

FC Dallas v VAN (H), RSL (A)
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[/three_fourth]Dallas currently sit on top of the West with 51 points, and they have a game in hand over LA. Dallas will need to win out and see NYRB drop points to win the Supporters Shield, so they do have a slight motivation to continue to play competitively. Also, winning out will guarantee them home field advantage through the playoffs.

Their first match against Vancouver is a home match, but this same Vancouver team held Dallas to a nil-nil draw in the last round. The RSL game will be a tough road match as RSL will be looking to grab every conceivable point to get a playoff berth themselves.

Right now Dallas are going to be without Fabian Castillo for the first match of the week, but other than that they’re at nearly full strength. Only Atiba Harris (D, $6.5) is on the hook for being one yellow card away from suspension, so avoid him this round as a precaution.

Picking up anybody else from the Dallas backline, or even keeper Jesse Gonzalez ($4.2) could be a savvy move for their first match of the week — but don’t expect a clean sheet from this group against a hungry RSL team. The best pick of the lot is probably Mauro Diaz ($10.2). If Diaz starts both matches, he could be a great differential captain pick this week.

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NYRB v TOR (A), PHI (H)
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[/three_fourth]The Red Bulls are sitting atop the table in the East, and they’ve really got the inside track to winning the Supporters Shield. With a first-year coach, the chance to win any kind of hardware would be a great way to establish your legacy, so maybe the Red Bulls will be a bit more proactive in starting their big names. The playoffs are always a gamble, so I expect this team to put a bit more time into the regular season to have something to show off at the end of the year.

Playing Toronto away should be a cakewalk with no Giovinco there to oppose them. And getting a team like Philly that’s already been disqualified from the postseason means that NY shouldn’t have much trouble in either leg of their DGW.

The only issues that NY have are minor ones this week. Miazga will be suspended for both matches due to yellow cards, and Perrinelle and Felipe Martins are just a single yellow away from a suspension. Other than that, the team is at full strength.

Really, any of your favorite Red Bulls could be purchased this week with the assumption that they’ll be actively playing for the league title. You could safely captain Kljestan ($10.7) or BWP ($11.3) and not think twice about that decision.

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Portland v RSL (A), LA (A)
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[/three_fourth]Portland have a very tough two game road series this week — and they’ll need to get points from each match to have a chance at staying in the playoff race. RSL will be a tough-fought match, and LA always seem to have a bit of firepower no matter who starts for them at home. Portland will move back into sole possession of the sixth and final playoff spot with a point against RSL, but they’ll need to probably win one of these two matches to have a chance at staying there.

Further compounding the problem with picking Portland is that fact that Valeri ($10.6), Powell ($7.4) and Chara ($7.8) are all one yellow card away from suspension. With a heated battle like what the RSL match is probably going to be, there’s every chance that any one of these players could have a mandatory benching against LA over the weekend.

The biggest problem with the Timbers is the merry-go-round of strikers that they’ve employed over the summer. Right now it seems that Adi ($9.6) has won the starting spot up front while Melano ($8.7) has been pushed out wide. But in the hunt for the playoffs, don’t put it past Portland to shake things up again.

Though we can’t recommend a single captain pick from Portland, it has to be said that the biggest risk/reward potential will be Portland players this round. Portland have too much talent to not qualify for a playoff spot, so let’s see if the players override the coaching strategy and gut out a win or two with their own play.

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RSL v POR (H), DAL (H)
RSL get a pair of home fixtures, and they desperately needed such a boost in their quest for the postseason. It’s important to note that RSL do not control their own destiny in the quest for the playoffs; they will need some help (via other teams losing) to qualify, but they’re still in a position that allows them to make a run. Based on the points, San Jose winning out would eliminate RSL even if RSL wins out simply based on the Goal Differential disparity. And Portland winning out would disqualify RSL outright. But don’t expect RSL to just roll over quite yet.

Neither of these two games will be easy for RSL, but at least home field advantage for the double helps their cause. Portland will probably bring the tougher fight based on desire to win, but Dallas are still the team in first place, and they’ll have to be dealt with as such.

Demar Phillips (D, $6.6) will be suspended for the Portland match, but he’s been a spotty starter anyway. Kyle Beckerman ($8.9) may still be with the USMNT prior to RSL’s first match, but even if he isn’t, he’s one yellow away from a suspension himself. Also, Nick Rimando ($6.4) could be absent during the first game, it all just depends on timing. The USMNT plays on Tuesday, and the RSL game is set for Wednesday. Until Klinsmann let’s the public know which squad he plans on losing with this week, we won’t know who will or won’t be available for fantasy selection.

Your best bet from RSL is always going to be Javier Morales ($12.3). His cost is at a premium, but he’s the star of the show. Given Giovinco’s absence and Valeri’s yellow card worry, Morales might be the best captain pick this week.

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SKC v SJ (A), COL (H)
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[/three_fourth]SKC are throwing the fantasy game into new territory this week. Their first game will be Friday October 16, but their second game will be Wednesday October 21. Typically that Wednesday game would be the start of the new round, but this round sees it as its closer. SKC control their own destiny in the playoffs, if they win out they will qualify. But if SKC completely lose their mind and lose out, they could easily be overtaken. In short, there’s still plenty of motivation for SKC to continue to compete.

San Jose will be a tough road match, the Quakes will be desperately trying to cling to the sixth and final spot in the West. The Colorado game should be an easy match though. Colorado have been eliminated and are just going through the motions trying to end their year.

SKC’s only problem this week will be Soni Mustivar ($6.2) on a yellow card warning — but outside of that, SKC have gotten all of their yellow card suspensions out of the way.

This could finally be the DGW that Feilhaber fans have been waiting for. At $10.6 he’s still a steal, and he can’t be suspended in either match with from anything short of a straight red. I still put Javier Morales up a tick higher on the captain scale this week — but Feilhaber would be a close second.

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Toronto v NYRB (H), CLB (H)
Toronto will get a pair of home matches, but they’ll be without Giovinco for the first leg. Michael Bradley and Jozy Altidore will also be question marks for the first match depending on their level of involvement in the upcoming USMNT game. Even though Toronto haven’t clinched their playoff spot, it’s all but a foregone conclusion at this point. Toronto will qualify if they can manage to snag a point and Orlando lose.

NY should give Toronto a ton of trouble, and Columbus won’t be a pushover either. In fact, Toronto could conceivably lose both of these matches – but Giovinco should be able to help them to a draw in the second leg of the round.

The main concern for Toronto is that Giovinco is one yellow card away from a suspension. If he picks up a card in the Columbus match, it could really make the last week of the year interesting when we see who everybody picks up as his replacement..

For this week, I would still recommend owning Giovinco because he can do more in one match than 95% of players can achieve in a double. But I wouldn’t captain (or pick up) anybody else from Toronto FC this week.

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#4) Wrap-Up, Rapid-Fire
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[/three_fourth]This article ended up being a bit longer than intended, but there are still a few more things to touch up on…

For the first time in forever, Montreal are not on a DGW. In fact, Montreal will now play away to New England and then at home to Toronto to round out the year. Neither of these games look good for Montreal defensively. You can now safely pare your team down to just Drogba or Piatti if need be.
If Kaka returns for this weekend’s game against NYC (he’s still with the Brazilian team) remember that he’s suspended, and he’ll be watching that game from the bench. If Orlando can hold out and get a result from this game, Kaka may be a key figure to have next week if they’re still in the playoff hunt.
Keep an eye on Dempsey’s minutes in the final USMNT team this week. After the extra time game, Dempsey may be one of those stars that doesn’t return to club action straight away. Obafemi Martins may be a lesser value if Dempsey isn’t able to play as well.

There you have it guys. If anything else comes up that’s noteworthy, I’ll submit them in the comments. Good luck all!

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MLS GW33 Tips – Fantasy Major League Soccer This article was written by Guy Sanchez (FootyFantastic)

Follow @Guy_M_Sanchez