MLS GW7 Tips – Fantasy Major League Soccer

MLS GW7 Tips – Fantasy Major League Soccer

MLS DEADLINE GW7 – Saturday April 23rd 9pm – UK GMT Time

Let’s start off with the good news: GW7 doesn’t start until Saturday this week. There will be no Friday game that will require you to lock in your transfers prior to getting as many details about potential lineups as possible. The bad news? We just went through one of the most “MLS’y” of all MLS DGWs – and we have another DGW ahead on the horizon.

I catch a lot of heat for being so negative about the DGWs in a general sense. Personally, I don’t care for them all that much. Don’t get me wrong, I do all I can to maximize my points during a DGW, and I play them as aggressively as possible, but the stress of seeing all of your best laid plans be nullified by roster shuffles and poor officiating is almost too much to handle at times. If you’re new to the MLS Fantasy world, you’re probably left wondering if DGWs are always like what we saw in Round 6. They mostly are.

It was just a crazy week all around. Of the six teams on a double, not a single SKC, Portland nor NY player was represented in the Dream Team. San Jose did well for themselves and had five players in the Dream Team – but Dallas only had a single player in the group while Colorado surprised with a pair. And the biggest surprise was the fact that three players in the Dream Team weren’t even on a double at all, and that’s really defying the odds considering the talent pool that really should have scored better this round. The real kicker is that even though most players on the double didn’t score well enough to be in the Dream Team, they mostly scored well enough above the average to still deserve a roster spot in your team, so we can’t ignore the DGWs by any means – and so we trudge on as we try to build a team that will field well this week and set you up for another double in GW8.

#1) Building the foundation for the DGW in Round 8
We’re just going to cover this lightly since I’ll expand on this much more next week – but with so many wildcards now unavailable, you do need to be making moves with a purpose this week to ensure that you’re ready for the next round. Coming up next week we get another slate of teams that will be playing twice; Montreal, New England, NYCFC, Portland, SKC and Vancouver will all be on a double. Now, their matchups this week may or may not be to your liking, but discounting them completely from your plans will do you a disservice going forward. Of those six teams, NE, Vancouver, Portland and SKC have already played a double – with varying degrees of success. So depending on whether you had a good experience with these teams previously on their doubles could greatly impact how you feel about them going forward.

New England and NYC look to be the safest bets to start to target based purely on the fact that their doubles will feature a pair of home fixtures. New England plays away to DC this week, and NYC plays away to Philly, so neither of those matches are deal-breakers if you’re wanting to get in a bit early on some of their players.

The only real concern for owners will be how to treat their second or third Portland players on their roster from last week. Nearly everybody had Valeri going into last week – and he’s an easy sell since his red card will deny him a chance of having a DGW next week anyway. Stashing Adi or even a player like Borchers or Klute if you picked them up will be a bit more problematic. Portland winning the league last year pretty much ensured that there were not going to be many value picks on their roster, and simply stashing their salary on the bench this week is a tough ask. So if you need to sell a player like Adi for a week, strongly consider getting him back in next week – even if that means burning two transfers for the same player in as many weeks.

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#2) Don’t be afraid to kick ‘em while they’re down
Sometimes, even without an impending DGW, you simply have to play to the obvious stats that are staring you right in the face. In this case, you have to look at the NYRB v Orlando game this weekend as a match you may want to key in on for Orlando. Even with Orlando being on the road, you can’t overlook the fact that NY are simply abysmal right now. Their GD of -10 is literally twice as bad as any other team in the league. NY have conceded 15 goals already this year and have only put 5 through themselves. Orlando on the other hand are scoring in bunches, and they’re now close to being completely healthy again with Larin getting playing time this last week.

Orlando won’t have a DGW until Round 12 – and it may seem counterintuitive to start to invest in a team like them now with so many other options coming up with big minutes. But the flip side of that coin is that you’re not going to have to worry about rotation with a team like Orlando – and there really aren’t many more dynamic combos out there than Kaka and Larin playing together. Kaka is managing 10.6 points per game this year – and Larin scored a goal in each of his first three matches before he was dinged with a hamstring tweak. And there are even value options in Orlando if Kaka is now out of your budget. A mid like Kevin Molino would make a great field/bench player on your roster at $8.1. He hasn’t scored less than 5 points during his last five weeks in any match (even if he was a sub in this last round) – and he’s scoring a 7 ppg average in that time. I’m only saying that a team like Orlando will have stable options that will provide a steady, often above average return for you. And for those of the opinion that DGW players trump all, ask FPL managers who kept Harry Kane this week how many better DGW options there were than him.

#3) What do we make of Colorado?
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Let’s preface this by saying that the last Colorado game was played in heavy snow – so we can take the results from that match against NY at face value…or you put a little asterisk next to it and push it aside. But even if you discount that last match, Colorado are doing something right. They have to be, right?

Colorado now have 13 points on the year. That’s good enough for third place in the West – and it’s more points than any team has in the East. Does that mean that the East is better? More competitive perhaps? That seems unlikely. Maybe Colorado have actually employed a system of defense that is bearing a bit of fruit. I really hate to concede that Colorado are making progress, but the results are what they are.

Colorado are in a 3-way tie for the lowest goals allowed total in the league with 5 (the other two teams are Toronto and LA…bet you didn’t expect those two teams to be listed here). But they’ve only pushed through 7 goals on the year, so their margin of error is very thin with this strategy they’ve employed. But this team has run the gauntlet and come out the other side, folks. Colorado have only lost twice this year, both were 1-0 losses on the road to San Jose and RSL. But they’ve not lost yet at home, and when you consider that they’ve beat LA, Toronto and NYRB already this year, you can’t simply dismiss them anymore. Are they elite? Not yet. But they are getting very good at doing what they do. And what do they do exactly? They try to win the possession game and they blatantly disrupt the other team’s attack. The league average for fouls committed for teams is now right about 81 for the year. Colorado are far and away the leaders in FC on the year right now with 118 as a team. It’s physical, but it works.

So all of that being said, should you have some of these guys on your team? If the results are going to stay consistent, I would say yes. Colorado have three of their next five matches at home – and they’ll have a double in GW10 as well. A couple of their guys are hurt now, but a lot of the Colorado roster offers a really great value. Due to their stingy defense, build from the back to the front when selecting their players, but even if you wanted to take a chance on Solignac up front, he’s only $7.2. It remains to be seen how much of a value Jermaine Jones will be going forward, but at $8.2, his 15 point debut may start to push him up to some lineups (he’s still owned by less than 1% of players). I can’t believe I spent so much time writing about Colorado, but the more you study their numbers, the harder it is to continually make fun of them out of habit.

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#4) Quick Takes
SKC are coming up on an increasingly congested schedule. It may seem like the prime time to get a full four SKC players given their six matches coming up over these next four rounds – but if this weekend was any indication on how they’re going to play going forward, it may not be worth the risk. The sound strategy is to probably field just a pair of SKC players with one of them being their keeper for the guaranteed minutes. SKC are going to rotate and leave players out of the matches completely coming up. Take your chances with just one extra field player and you won’t be completely disappointed if/when that player is rotated out.

Diego Valeri got a dumb red card. It happens. The only thing that red card diminishes is his capacity to play minutes – but the silver lining is that he’ll be getting rested while the rest of the league is hoofing out multiple matches. Key in on him around GW9 when Portland travels to Vancouver to play a Cascadia Cup match. Vancouver will be right in the middle of their own congested schedule and Valeri will have the freshest legs on the pitch.

LA, as mentioned above, are incredibly defensively sound on their stat sheet. It’s a bit of a surprise considering that they haven’t had the benefit of some seemingly easy results – but they may be worth a look again at multiple positions. With Keane still a long way from return, this team naturally defaulted to the young stars up front, and the change of pace paid off this week. Dos Santos and Zardes would be steady buys if you didn’t want to navigate around too many DGW forwards throwing their rotation woes at your team.

Keeping with the theme of looking for steady plays to keep your DGW rosters a bit more grounded, Columbus may be worth investing in for a long-term option for you. If this past weekend is any indication, Columbus may be returning to their form from last season after a few stumbles. Both Finlay and Meram scored double digit points this past weekend, and this week they’ll be playing Houston. Houston matches are always a shoot-out (they’ve scored 13 and conceded just as many), and you may find another Columbus player or two on the Dream Team this week. The problem with Columbus is that they don’t have a DGW scheduled for the entire year – so you’re never going to get that double hat trick miracle we all hope for with them. But if you’re looking for 3-4 players on your squad to never face a rotation issue, a Columbus man might be part of your solution.

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#5) Captain Picks
Kaka tops my list simply because they’re playing the worst possible defense in the league this week in NY. It really is a no-brainer. If you have him on your squad, give him the armband and don’t think another thing of it.

Kei Kamara needs to be considered against Houston for the reasons I just listed above. I’m high on their mids, but if you’re holding onto Kamara for any reason, he would be a great play against Houston on the road. Houston can’t even figure out who their best striker is (Cubo Torres has played only twice), so how can they be expected to properly game plan for another team’s star forward?

Ride the hot hand and go with Giovani dos Santos for your third pick. With RSL going into LA, the conference battle will be enough of an incentive to get both teams up for the match. RSL have the better record, but man-for-man LA have the better team.
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The MLSFI Podcast

We mention this every week and we hope you’ve had a chance to listen in but if you haven’t then be sure to try and check out this weeks edition below. The guys know MLS inside out but more than that they’re just a great listen every week and you get to follow their teams, their successes and their woes. Pretty much the same soap story that unfolds on our FPL comments on here every week, only in a podcast format! And if you just don’t have the time then the guys have a handy chalkboard with their picks on which is below.

Don’t forget to stop by mlsfantasyboss.com to catch up on their great weekly articles that lead into the deadline.

Or if you are after listening to more of Guy himself then be sure to drop in and give his Married Man’s Guide to Sports Addiction a listen!

To play the MLS game itself it’s fantasy.mlssoccer.com that you need.

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And last but not least, don’t forget to join the FF247 MLS League, Code is: 123-361

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MLS GW7 Tips – Fantasy Major League Soccer This article was written by Guy Sanchez (FootyFantastic)

Follow @Guy_M_Sanchez