MLS GW21 – Tips Fantasy Major League Soccer

By FF247 on July 29, 2016 37 Comments

MLS GW21 – Tips Fantasy Major League Soccer

mls fantasy tips

This weeks deadline is Sat 30th July 3PM EDT. That’s American time – add 5 hours here in the UK to make it Sat at 8PM

The MLS isn’t in the habit of making their scheduling coincide with perfectly timed fantasy articles – and that’s kind of the situation we have on our hands again this week. Full disclosure: this article is being written prior to the MLS All Star game vs. Arsenal. Now, we could’ve waited until after the AS game to check on injuries and any players that played heavy minutes, but that would’ve meant having this article posted for a single day before the round locked. There’s no perfect solution, so we’ll just get this out there, and then the burden of being in the know about injuries from the AS game falls to you, the reader. Apologies.

Now that we have that out of the way, I think most people can be pretty happy about their scores from last week. Having an average in the 70’s is really pretty decent on a single game week. But a lot of players went off for huge points, and I think a lot of people now feel smart about their picks going forward. This being the MLS, you should probably pull a Larry David and curb your enthusiasm a bit. I’m not being pessimistic, just honest. I’m not saying we can’t find a few gems here to boost some scores, but the chances of multiple players going off at the same rate again this week is pretty slim – even slimmer than Lampard’s last score.

#1) Check into the All Star Game, but don’t expect big minutes from players
If all goes to plan, every player on the roster should be used in some capacity to keep minutes down for this match. Hopefully that means we won’t see even a single player on your roster hit 60 minutes during this exhibition- but what do any of us know? The worst thing would be for somebody to get a quick brace only to be left in to try to get a hat trick or something equally absurd.

We all know that club coaches are a fickle group in this league. Any player who gets heavy minutes or who is tracked running too many miles could be a rotation risk come this weekend. You know by now who those coaches are that treat players like they’re all delicate flowers in danger of getting too much sun, so buyer beware.

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#2) The Giovinco problem
Whenever there is an issue with Giovinco, he gets his own article breakdown. That’s just the rules of the game – he’s the best player in the league. And boy oh boy, I think we’re about to have a problem with our Golden Boy here.

Toronto just got done playing at home against DC on July 23. Now, on July 28, Giovinco is set to play in San Jose for the AS Game. After this match, Giovinco is set to fly home to play on Sunday July 31 against Columbus. And three games in a little over a week normally wouldn’t be a big deal. But when we start GW22, we see that Toronto will be playing twice – the first game on August 3 and the second on August 6.

That’s going to put Giovinco on pace to play five matches in two weeks. Whether he plays those minutes or not remains to be seen, but he may have tired legs nonetheless. This is just something to keep in mind as we all go forward. 66% of us own Giovinco, and there really aren’t many people considering dropping him on a stretch of home fixtures that include a DGW. But keep in mind that he may not play all of the minutes you’re hoping. In fact the best that we can hope for is that he plays this weekend and maybe takes a shift off during the next round so that we’ll still get scores from him for both scoring periods.

#3) Upcoming scheduling issues
Since we’ve mentioned the DGW with Giovinco already, we should also add that RSL will also be on a double in GW22. They’ll play away to Toronto and then at home against Chicago. So they may not have the worst numbers and may offer a player or two worth a look.

Also in GW22, Columbus and Dallas will have a bye week. So for those of you who already dropped Diaz and Zimmerman, you won’t have to worry too much about forcing your trades next week. But for other teams that may have Ola Kamara or Chris Seitz, you’ll have to start planning for those absences now.

Following GW22, we’ll have two normal rounds of play with no major issues – and then we’ll get into the bye weeks that will blow up everybody’s teams again. Just FYI.

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#4) Key match breakdowns
The first match of note just got put in a bit of flux from the betting side. Seattle v LA currently has Seattle as the winning club from the bookies perspective, but there’s no degree of confidence behind their +185 rating. Seattle just lost their coach this week, and media are now reporting that Clint Dempsey is completely fed up with the place and can’t wait to leave. The chances that Seattle actually beat a team like LA…not good. But without a coach in place, who knows what type of performance you’ll get in that game. Oh, Seattle also just picked up some South American DP – but I’ll let Mito tell you all about it since he can’t seem to stop himself from doing so on every other platform at this point.

FC Dallas v. Vancouver is leaning heavily towards Dallas in the betting. Dallas are a goal favorite, and the game lines have skewed heavily to the ‘over 2.5 goals’ for the entire match. And that makes sense. Dallas have been great at home, and Vancouver are pretty mediocre on the road. If you’re one of the few that hasn’t sold Diaz yet in preparation for the bye week, you may want to hold onto him until the next round after all.

Finally, a bit of a surprise here, but Orlando v New England is the only game on the docket this weekend that the bookies have set the total goals over/under at 3, not 2.5. This is usually significant in the sense that they’re just that much more confident that we’ll see some legitimate scoring. And with neither team really pegged to be an overwhelming favorite, you can reasonably expect scoring from both sides.

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#5) Buy / Sell
Buy Robbie Keane away to Seattle. Sure, it’s hard to pick up a player on the road, but Seattle are a complete mess right now from the front office all the way to the players on the pitch. And after this match, Keane will have a pair of home games to settle into. Aside from the light travel up I-5, there really isn’t much downside to this right now.

Sell Ola Kamara away to Toronto. Unlike Dallas who have a clear betting bias going in their favor, Columbus aren’t expected to do much this round, and with their impending bye week coming next round, there’s really no reason not to drop him now and pick up another option.

Buy Lamar Neagle home vs. Montreal. This is only half-serious, but you should buy a single player from DC United. Whether you take the gamble on Neagle for $8.0, or you feel like being truly bold and going for Luciano Acosta for $8.5, you should have a bit of DC coverage on your team. The reason is that DC are starting a 4-game home stand, and in the MLS home games count for more than what they ought to. Maybe Montreal aren’t the best option to play against out the gate, but they will host Philly, Portland and NY later on. One of their value attacking options could prove useful.

Sell Pirlo/Lampard home vs. Colorado. Even on the road, Colorado aren’t a defensively porous team, so NYC will have their work cut out for them to be successful in this match. But after their game with Colorado, NYC will travel to San Jose and then Columbus before finally coming back home to take on LA. As a matter of fact, it’s not the greatest schedule to own any NYC players if we’re being honest.

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#4 Captain Picks GW21We have to start this list with Giovinco again. We all hope he plays the full 90 given what his schedule is going to be, but even if he doesn’t, he’s magic. His 21 point performance last week just proves that he can will himself to score whenever he pleases. And his 66% ownership almost obligates you to captain him so that you don’t lose ground if he goes off and a player like Kljestan or Piatti doesn’t.

I’m picking Benny Feilhaber as my second pick here this week. Even though he was a relative blank last round against Seattle, I don’t think he’ll be denied in a second home fixture against Portland. Portland will be without Ridgewell for suspension/injury, and they’ll be without Borchers for the rest of the season with an Achilles injury. If there were ever a match to really test Portland’s new keeper, this would be the match, and I think that Benny is up to the task.

Lastly, I’m picking Robbie Keane in a road fixture. I 50% pick him for his skill, and 50% I pick him because Seattle may need a real 12th man to help them win another match this year.

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