Promoted Teams Analysis – Burnley

Promoted Teams Analysis – Burnley

Welcome to Promoted Teams Analysis – Burnley

Unlike Luton and similar to Sheffield United, most of us will know about Burnley so I won’t go into the history of the club but instead I will just go through their last visit to the Prem. A fair bit has changed at Turf Moor since we last saw The Clarets. In fact, forget about the Burnley we knew and loved as so much has changed that they are almost unrecognisable. No longer do we have the gruff but loveable Sean Dyche at the helm, they no longer play 4-4-2, they don’t just hoof the ball up and play Route One ball. The new man in the dugout has given a new lease of life to the players in Lancashire. Former Premier League stalwart, Vincent Kompany has moved over to England from his home country of Belgium and made a great impact. Now Burnley play with a fluid system, inverted full-backs and possession football. One thing, Kompany has picked up from his old master, Pep Guardiola, is that he doesn’t mind a bit of rotation! Yikes!

Okay so it seems to not be as straight forward as it might look on paper so bear with me as I try to go through the ‘new’ Burnley!
Kompany sets up with a 4-2-3-1/4-3-3 formation. When they play defensively Jack Cork would play as as an anchor with Josh Cullen and Josh Brownhill in a middle three with a striker and two wingers. Kompany used this for the start of last season, but half way through he moved Cork out for a more attacking option with Jóhann Berg Guðmundsson playing a no.10 role. This might sound simple but it has been described as “bamboozling” because the fluidity of the positions and players was crazy. The only thing that stayed consistent is there was a keeper in the net! In games, Burnley expected to win they sometimes played more like a 4-1-4-1 with Brownhill pushing up, Scott Twine sometimes getting the nod over Cork and Cullen or Guðmundsson doing their thing.

When they have the ball, Josh Cullen drops back into a back three with the fullbacks inverting into the midfield. The midfielders would push out to the wings with the wingers, Anass Zaroury and Manuel Benson. This would create overlaps and allow for a lot of attacking options. From what I have read, the fingerprints of Pep and Arteta are all over the ideas of Kompany who isn’t shy of trying similar tactics. The inverted fullbacks being a key feature of Kompany’s play. One of those wingbacks was Ian Maatsen on loan from Chelsea. Kompany and his board are working at trying to bring the young Dutchman back to the club either on loan or permanently. Keep an eye on this as if that move materialises it could be a great FPL option. Build up play was less Route One and more possession play with the 4-2-3-1 formation more like a 2-3-5 or 3-2-5. Honestly, it seems to be an almost all out-attack sort of thing with Cullen likely staying back while the other mids would join the attack.

Burnley had the ball the majority of the time last season ranking 1st for teams with 64.6% possession and a pass completion rate of 84.7% This could be because the Championship isn’t as fast-paced and the quality is a drop from the Prem but we should be expecting Kompany to stick to this possession play. They are a very patient team. Short passes, keep the ball, sit back and wait for an opening. This is all reflected in the stats as they were first for shots from open play, 2nd for passes completed, 18th for long passes attempted and 24th for counter-attacks. If you have the ball, your opponent can’t score!

I mentioned earlier that Kompany likes to rotate. It seems that making 2-3 changes every few games is perhaps something we should expect. There were a core group of players though, one of which will make readers very happy. That core were the Josh’s (Cullen and Brownhill), Nathan Tella and 4.0 defender Jordan Beyer. In fact, the Josh’s were never benched last season!

Burnley will have to be active in the transfer window with Ashley Barnes having left, J. Rod getting on in age, Maatsen returning to Chelsea and Tella returning to Southampton. A few moves have been made which I will discuss further so let’s get to discussing the players, shall we?

Formation – 4-2-3-1
Weghorst
Zaroury – Guðmundsson – Benson
Cullen – Brownhill
Taylor – Beyer – O’Shea – Roberts
Muric

Goalkeeper and defence –

BURNLEY, ENGLAND – JANUARY 20: Jordan Beyer of Burnley during the Sky Bet Championship between Burnley and West Bromwich Albion at Turf Moor on January 20, 2023 in Burnley, England. (Photo by Gareth Copley/Getty Images)

Kompany liking the possession style of play also means he likes to play out from the back. This is why he went to his former home, Man City for a goalkeeper who has been trained with his feet as much as his hands. Ari Muric (£4.5) was signed last season and had a great start to life with The Clarets. He made more successful short passes than any other keeper in the Championship and had a long-range pass completion of 49% which was also better than most keepers. This accuracy with passing can help Muric get bonus points so could he be the 4.5 goalkeeper we are looking for? He combines the passing with the traditional job of a goalkeeper… saving shots! Muric had the best save percentage last season with 76.6% so facing tougher opposition this season should mean he has plenty opportunities to get save points. Now Kompany still wants to create competition for the no.1 jersey and with Bailey Peacock-Farrell (£4.0) looking for a loan move, there has been a move for not one but two new shot stoppers at Turf Moor. Firstly, Lawrence Vigoroux (£4.0) has been brought in from Leyton Orient but also England U21 hero, James Trafford (£4.5) has signed, with Burnley having a fee agreed for the young man who did not concede in the tournament and stopped a last minute penalty to ensure a 1-0 win for the Young Lions. If Muric can hold off the challenge from Trafford then we might have found the best 4.5 goalkeeper this season.

A major factor in Burnley’s title charge last season was their attack-minded full-backs. Connor Roberts (£4.5) and Ian Maatsen (not in the game) each scored four goals and 6 assists so there really isn’t anything to split the two bar the fact Maatsen has returned to Chelsea. This means he’s not an option at all in FPL, if he gets a move back then I would consider him but for now we shall focus on the one who is actually at the club. Roberts created 41 chances and 29 shots and 15 of those came inside the box. Roberts had a two-part season, pre-World Cup and post-World Cup. Before the WC, Roberts was used defensively as a third centre-back with Maatsen the only given license to attack but after the WC, Roberts was allowed to get forward with Maatsen. This is when seven of his ten goal contributions came so it was a successful tactic change. This change also allowed for that previously mentioned shot count to double with over half the amount of shots coming in the second half of the season. If Kompany keeps the inverted fullback tactic, then Roberts and whoever plays at leftback could be nice options at 4.5.

Apart from being an attacking threat, Roberts was a part of the strongest defence in the Championship. Burnley recorded a league-best 21 clean sheets last season. 12 of those shutouts came in Turf Moor. This ability to shut out other teams links with the fact they had the best defensive record with only 35 conceded goals in the 46 games played. If they did concede a goal it would typically only be the one as they only conceded two or more on six occasions. Now even though they had 21 clean sheets they only had 5 of those after 20 games so it was slow coming but it was Kompany’s first season so it obviously took time for everyone to gel. From games 1-20, they conceded 1.15 goals a game but from games 21-46 they conceded only 0.46 goals a game. A big improvement! The Qatari World Cup was just what Kompany needed as it allowed for more time with his players to get used to his tactics and that is what all the stats suggest. When English football returned, Burnley went on a 21 game unbeaten run and nine straight wins. I mentioned above the possession style of play and again I’ll say “your opponent can’t score if they can’t get the ball!”.

One area of weakness was defending set plays so the likes of Brentford, Man City, Arsenal, Liverpool and West Ham who were the top five teams at scoring set-pieces could be dangerous for Kompany’s men. This did improve as the season went on but it was still always there. Something that Kompany has possibly done to combat this threat is the signing of Dara O’Shea (£4.5), a tall strong centre-back with Premier League and International experience is just what Kompany needs at the centre of that defence. This has been combined with the loan deal of Jordan Beyer (£4.0) being made permanent. Like I mentioned earlier Beyer is a 4.0 defender who made the starting spot his playing in nearly all of Burnley’s games last season. He is described as being comfortable on the ball and likes to get forward. He might get the odd goal from set-plays but he does only have one career goal so far. You will be relying on appearance and clean sheets points here but for 4.0 player an appearance is all you want. I would expect O’Shea to go straight in to the starting line-up as Beyer was partnered with three different centre-backs last season so no one else has that spot nailed down. Hjalmar Ekdal (£4.0) might get GW1 as he was the last partner for Beyer but I reckon Kompany goes with the experience of the Irishman, O’Shea.

Honestly, there is no other reason to go for any of the Burnley centre-backs apart from the 4.0 price tag. They won’t haul points as the attacks come from the wings, the keeper has saves so avoid anyone but Beyer. Also, I have stuck Charlie Taylor (£4.0) in at left back but I highly doubt he will be there GW1. Keep an eye on the preseason lineups to see who is playing at that spot.

Midfield –

BRIGHTON, ENGLAND – FEBRUARY 19: Josh Brownhill of Burnley celebrates after scoring their side’s second goal during the Premier League match between Brighton & Hove Albion and Burnley at American Express Community Stadium on February 19, 2022 in Brighton, England. (Photo by Mike Hewitt/Getty Images)

Finally, we get a promoted side with some midfield options. In midfield, there are a few options for fantasy managers due to some of the wingers being listed as midfielders. The one I will start with is Josh Brownhill (£5.0). This is largely due to his all-round style of play making him pretty much nailed in Vincent Kompany’s side. Brownhill scored seven goals and got eight assists last season which is the most goal involvements for any of the Burnley players still on the books. Nathan Tella got 22 goal involvements but has returned to Southampton. Most would have been hoping Brownhill was priced at 4.5 but FPL towers haven’t really given us any options at that price this season. Brownhill was 4.5 last time he was in the top-flight but alas we don’t get that this season; this could be due to his underlying stats showing the influence he has on the whole side with 72 key passes and 57 shots putting him high in the team stats. Brownhill has been given a share of the set plays with Jóhann Guðmundsson (another £5.0). I mentioned how the World Cup improved Conor Roberts and Burnley but it actually did the opposite for Brownhill. Before WC, Brownhill was the attacking midfield with Jack Cork and Josh Cullen (both £5.0) playing the defensive roles but after the WC, Cork was dropped for Guðmundsson so Brownhill dropped deeper. This tactic change was massive for the attacking returns of Brownhill as ten of his fifteen goal contributions came before the WC.

Moving along to the other Josh, he isn’t a vampire but Mr Cullen sparkles with the best of them. He is a midfield anchor who has been voted Burnley’s Player of the Year twice. He is the one who sets the pace of play in the Burnley side and is one of Kompany’s favourites. A nailed starter for The Clarets plus he played under Kompany for two years at Anderlecht so they know each other extremely well. Now Cullen is pretty much a 1, 2- or 3-point player as he doesn’t really assist or score too many. If you are looking for a dependable 5th midfielder to just come off the bench if needed than this lad is Mr Dependable.

I’m going to build up to the player I actually feel could be a bargain in the Burnley midfield but first we shall stick to the smaller, more plod along points-wise players. First is the familiar face of Jóhann Berg Guðmundsson who I have mentioned but will give the details now. I said how Guðmundsson replaced Jack Cork in the final third of the season for a more attacking style of football. He started the final 14 of Burnley’s 18 league games as a central attacking midfielder. He wasn’t prolific but he was on set plays and relied heavily on them for attacking returns (4G and 6A). Over half of his key passes were via free-kicks and corners but due to this fact, he had the best rate of chances created in the Burnley squad. A chance created every 41.1 minutes. The main issue with the Icelandic midfielder is his age. At 32 years old, his legs are kind of gone, even when he did start, he only made 90 minutes once and his average time spent on the pitch was just over 70 minutes. Now the Premier League does offer less games than the Championship but they might require more from him so it is hard to know how much Jóhann will be able to play. Someone who I feel might get rotated and taken off in most, if not all, games.

Anass Zaroury (£5.0) had his debut season with Burnley last year and while it took a bit of time for him to embed in the team. Not making the gameweek squad until Gameweek 10 with his first start not coming until October but from then on, he made 23 starts from a possible 25. He was the left sided winger who loved to cut inside on his right and take shots from range. Not only was he cutting inside but at times he would get to the by-line and knock in some great crosses to earn himself some assists. 7 goals and 5 assists for the young Moroccan winger could see him make a challenge for the best 5.0 mid this year. Might prove to be a bargain! He will need to prove it first but one for the watchlist that’s for sure.

Now for the man who I think is a bit of an enigma as he was Burnley’s top scorer last season after Nathan Tella who has now left the club. Manuel Benson (£5.5) is a tough one to call as he was one of the best scorers for Kompany yet he only made 14 starts and came off the bench a further 19 times. He scored 11 goals and got 3 assists on the right wing. Doing the same as Zaroury by cutting inside on his left and scoring. He took a shot on average every 24 minutes and had a goal involvement every 106 minutes. If he can nail a starting spot, which might happen now that Tella has left, Benson could be a great bargain pick for that 5th mid spot. Kompany might see him more as an impact sub coming on to run at tired legs as he did get five goals and all three assists off the bench. A downside other than the possibility of minutes is 6 of his goals came from distance. Burnley were like sharpshooters last year and scored an unbelievable amount from range. People have been saying on Twitter they had a goal of the season competition amongst themselves. This is something I highly doubt they can replicate so goals for Benson and co. should drop. Keep an eye on preseason friendlies and transfer news to see if Benson will get the nod on the right wing but for now he is one to watch. Brownhill is still the midfielder to own for assured minutes with potential for attacking returns.

Burnley have brought in some big Premier League experience in the shape of ex-Saints player, Nathan Redmond from Beşiktaş. This signing does feel like a straight swap for the departing Nathan Tella but some Burnley fans still feel that Benson gets the starting spot with Redmond back up for either winger. This will add some competition for Benson and Zaroury but think Redmond has to earn his place in the Championship champions team.

Forward –

GERMANY – APRIL 30: Suitcase full with Euro notes, Symbolic picture: money laundering, illegal money, bribery ,,. (Photo by Ulrich Baumgarten via Getty Images)

It’s actually here where I won’t say much this article! The issue for Burnley is they don’t have a striker that is screaming “Start me!”. Ashley Barnes has left the club for Norwich, Jay Rodriguez (£5.5) is approaching 34, Michael Obafemi (£5.0) has had surgery so will likely miss the start of the season. Wout Weghorst (£5.5) has returned from his loan at United but he doesn’t feel like a Kompany player, there are rumours of a move to Everton for the big man and more importantly the fans seem to hate him! Every preseason game the Dutchman has been getting booed whenver he touches the ball, not good for morale so Burnley will be looking to the market for a new striker. They have signed Zeki Amdouni for €18.5 million from Basel. Only 22 years old so a plenty talent to build on and learn. Has played just shy of 200 games in 6 seasons as a pro getting 72 goals and 10 assists. Not a bad return overall with last season probably being the reason he earned a move to the Prem, 22 goals and 5 assists in all comps with 12G and all 5A coming in the Swiss League. The youngster even brings European experience so I’d imagine he should get the starting spot up top but he is still not in the game yet. For that reason, I have stuck Weghorst into the striker spot on the predicted lineup but much like Taylor I doubt he will be there come GW1.

I shall give you my top three FPL prospects for the Championship Champions as they begin their new life in the Prem:
1. Jordan Beyer
2. Ari Muric
3. Josh Brownhill

Thanks for reading Promoted Teams Analysis – Burnley. This article was written by Matt X.

Follow @MattyMcveigh