Analytical Guide to Fixtures GW1 – GW8
This article looks to review the importance of a team’s fixtures and how to use rotation in a slightly different way to the existing tools and opinions available on FPL selection.
The highlights (for the opening 8 GW’s) are:
Attacking
– Arsenal and Man United look the strongest of the big teams
– Southampton and Swansea are good for mid priced teams
– Leicester and Bournemouth are likely to be the best budget teams (and both rotate well with Crystal Palace)
Defending
– Chelsea are the stand out team defensively
– Southampton and West ham are good for mid priced teams
– Leicester and West Brom are the best budget options (and rotate well with West ham and Southampton)
In general
– There are some teams that have very strong fixtures and so don’t need to be rotated (Chelsea and the attacks of Arsenal, Man Utd and Man City)
– There are a few teams I would steer well clear of for the first 8 weeks (Newcastle, Watford, Norwich)
– Always remember that some players can be fixture proof; regardless of the team they play for.
– Always have an Exit/Entry strategy in place as team fixtures change, the bargains become obvious and Aguero becomes fit.
If understanding how I got to these conclusions is of interest then read on… otherwise good luck this year.
The importance of rotation for your FPL team….
with analysis on the opening 8 GW’s of the 2015/16 season.
There are some very good fixture analysers (and opinions) out there in the FPL community. Some of them are very helpful for team planning when used correctly. The one thing I have consistently found is that they place too much reliance on rotating pairs, both home and away, (e.g. Newcastle and Sunderland) and less emphasis on the quality of the opposition. Personally I would rather have Stoke away to Sunderland than Newcastle at home to Everton…
An important omission from this article (one for another day) is the importance of having an entry and exit strategy for all your players. Injuries happen, bargains become available, standout players shine, transfers happen and big game players become fit again. Be mindful on this as long term planning is key to a successful season and all poor teams have a couple of good players… Although 2 wildcards does help.
For the purpose of this analysis (and how I like to pick my team) I have a few criteria I like to follow. These are:
– Always separate a team’s attacking potential from its defensive potential.
– Form, playing style, player’s average ability all factor into a team’s potential.
– Don’t underestimate the positive (and negative) impact of transfers/injuries.
– Playing home and away have an impact as well (but it’s not the most important thing).
– Big Teams can have bad fixtures.
– Small Teams can have good fixtures.
– Every team no matter how bad has a couple of standout players (there is an ‘I’ in some teams).
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The opening 8 fixtures
I have chosen to look at the opening 8 fixtures for this year’s season, as you have to plan, but beyond 8-10 weeks is too far in FPL. Remember to factor in your weekly transfers as the fixtures shift and with it so do the fortunes of your budget teams. Having a banked transfer always helps and avoids unnecessary point’s hits.
The opening fixtures look like this:
Based on the opening 8 fixtures I would expect the league table to be ordered something like this:
(*Please note that this reflects the teams overall ability and ,as mentioned above, to get a team’s true potential for FPL you need to break them out into attacking potential and defensive potential.)
Focussing on the overall fixtures could lead to some incorrect assumptions around which FPL players to choose. While on face value the above table suggests it is best to steer clear of the bottom 5-6 teams there is definitely value in some of them. Going on just the overall view of the teams we can see the following likelihood of the teams having positive opening results:
When we split out the teams attacking and defensive ability and look to rotate you can find a lot of value in those bottom (budget) teams. The “Pulis affect” at West Brom is one I particularly like for their defence (especially when rotating with Southampton or Palace).
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Looking at the top 6 teams we can see that for all of them their attacks are likely to do well. However all, except Chelsea, are likely to have a harder time defensively.
In order to achieve an optimal FPL return it is clear that you need to adopt a balanced approach between players from the big 6, mid table and budget teams. The key to the latter 2 is rotation pairs.
To identify which teams you should pick players from it is important to know, defensively and offensively, who needs to rotate and who will stand on their own.
Attack rotation need:
No Rotation
– Arsenal, Chelsea, Man City, Man Utd, Tottenham
Low Rotation
– Liverpool, Southampton
Rotate
– Villa, Bournemouth, Palace, Everton, Leicester, Stoke, Swansea, West ham
Avoid (unless stand out bargain is obvious)
– Newcastle, Norwich, Sunderland, Watford, West Brom
Defence rotation need:
No Rotation
– Chelsea
Low Rotation
– Arsenal, Man City, Man Utd, Southampton
Rotate
– Villa, Bournemouth, Palace, Everton, Leicester, Liverpool, Stoke, Swansea, Tottenham, West Brom, West ham
Avoid (unless stand out bargain is obvious)
– Newcastle, Norwich, Sunderland, Watford
So focussing on the teams with a rotation need who do they rotate well with?
Each team with a rotation need has 2-3 good options. Rotate 1 is the best but in all cases the rotation sees a big positive impact. Team type determines if they are a big 6 (1), mid table (2) or budget team (3) so aiming for budget rotations frees up more cash.
Attacking Rotations:
Defensive Rotations:
There are clearly plenty of options available in both attack and defence. Personally I recommend rotating budget teams with a mid-table team or another budget team. For my defence I will be looking at a combined cost of £9-9.5million per pair. For my attackers I will look to rotate based on my available funds once I have 8-9 of the team selected.
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As a case study we could take newly promoted Bournemouth and look to rotate them with the best budget/Mid table team.
By combining West Hams defence (options at £5.0m) with Bournemouth’s (options at £4.5m) we will be likely to rival that of Man City’s and Arsenal’s £6m defenders. In attack choosing Players such as Bournemouth’s Matt Ritchie (On Pens) and Palace’s Patrick Bamford (championship player of the season) you can fill up 2 attacking slots for less than £12m freeing up cash to get the all important heavy hitters. This might not seem a lot but it’s the difference between Oscar and Hazard in your team. And you get 7-8 good to great fixtures in the next 8 weeks:
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Conclusion:
There are plenty of options available for team rotations in the opening 8 game weeks. By aiming for budget options you can end up with 1 or 2 extra, and very important, heavy hitters.
In attack I recommend:
– 3-4 players from Man Utd, Arsenal, Chelsea and Man City.
– 1 player from a mid table team (or looks cheap) who has big potential (e.g. -Bolasie/Milner/Tadic/Schneiderlin)
– 3-5 players from mid table and budget teams that rotate well (and ideally take pens or set pieces)
In defence I recommend:
– A nailed on Chelsea defender
– 2 budget keepers who rotate well
– 2 pairs of budget/mid table defenders who rotate well (e.g. Southampton/West Brom and West Ham/Leicester)
Important additions:
– Every team has a stand out player (or two), from defence and attack, who suck up most of their teams points (e.g. Janmaat at Newcastle and Sigurdson at Swansea). These guys can be almost fixture proof as the heavy hitters.
– Plan for injuries, transfers, the fixture landscape changing and spotting the season bargains early. Banked transfers help to react to these.
Following all of this you have a great chance to get a head start on your mini-league rivals.
Good luck for the season and if you like what you have read then please follow –
And many thanks to the following for the proof read and recommendations –
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Ok v2 incoming… Reasonably happy but I’m keen for feedback. I need to beat some mates down under in a cash comp.
farqs
Butland and Ruddy (Norwich) rotate really well across most of the first half of the season.
I wouldn’t criticise much else – most of the big teams covered.
Try a couple of alternatives to Bournemouth players – three is a bit excessive for a newly promoted team. As you have Ritchie, why not try Deeney of Watford who is on penalties?
farqs if you are going to rotate GK you need them to rotate more that 20 times in a season , def ok but not sure I would have Tomkins @ 5m possibly Alder or Williams if you need another 5m def Mf & Fwd line looks ok have you any cash left the 4 big hitters up top will be Kun / Costa / Roo / Kane in that order although Ben could get into that
Planning on playing just 3 at the back in a 352 or 343 formation. Are there any 4.0 defenders who are likely to feature this year?
Great article… a lot to take it.
Think Im starting to settle… thoughts?
Courtois/Hennessey
Cedric/Mings/Martin/Baker/Alderweireld
Hazard/Milner/Walcott/Cabaye/Anya
Aguero/Rooney/Wilson
aha. Good, I think.
Rza
Maybe Walcott to Caz and Anya to Aarons?
Not sure who could be the best pick from Arsenal yet…
Hard one. I really like Wally and I think he could explode. Caz is the safe option, I guess. Aarons is a bit of a risk. I know everybody is on his dick, but will he play all games and how much time will he play?
Raz
Agreed, thing is if Walcott is fit I cant see how he can be dropped. Think best Arsenal attack is Giroud Sanchez Ozil Walcott Caz Ramsey. And he can also play striker when Giroud does his underwear modelling.
Think Anya and Aarons are in the same boat being an unknown risk…
Thoughts on a defense with Cedric and 4×4.5m defenders?
Hard one. I”m trying to fit in Azpi but if I do it will cost me one of my offensive players. So my defense will be smt like:
Cedric – Toby – Kos – Mings – Baker. Mings will rotate with the others and crossing fingers Baker will be a starter.
Are we all 100 percent sure Toby will be a starter? I know I have him but I feel it’s dangerous. Spurs coach is an idiot, at one time he even benched Jan Vertonghen right?
For me Azpil doesnt attack like he did the season before so his more of a 6m clean sheet player… so rather went with Courtois and got another defender.
That back line looks strong to me though. 3 solid defenders and Mings can relieve if needed
Well he spent 11m bringing him in… dont think he would bench that, he is not LvG…
100% sure he’ll start regularly. His stats from last season better the rest of Spurs’ defence, combined. They’re crazy bad at the back so Toby is in, for sure :thumbup:
Just seen that Chester could be going to West Brom anyone think he’ll be a good addition in FPL??
This is my team. I’ve used .5 to upgrade Hoban to Prodl but still can’t decide on Benteke or Milner? Because after GW4 my plan would leave me with no Liverpool cover as I would be downgrading Tekkers to J.Rod and Rooney to Ageuro.
Maybe Milner to Cabaye and you the 0.5m to upgrade your defense? Or Wanyama to Aarons from what I read previously he could feature a bit and can rotate with Wilson (not sure on the Home/Away part)
I like the team though.
Isn’t O’Shea a bit of a yellow magnet? and Sunderland’s defense is not something to write home about
Their defense looked better after Dick Advocaat came. The little general usually sets up a good defense. And they still have PANTSUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Too bad he’s 5m.
Who would the starting backs be for Sunderland?
van A, O’Shea, Brown and Kaboul?
Don’t know. That’s why I won’t touch Sunderland defense. 😉
Ye I was thinking of that move but Palace have difficult fixtures to begin with so it turned me off him for the first few weeks.
OShea is pretty nailed on but I could still change him just don’t know who to bring in?
Fair point, but if the do anything Cabaye should be involved.
Thing is, is Cabaye going to play deep or high up? Hope high since Pardew got the best out of him (and us on FPL) there.
Im thinking of having Cedric and 4 x 4.5m defenders (Courtois in goal though). Seem like a good strategy?
Ye Cabaye will probably get all the setpieces but like you said will he be deep or up top? I think he’ll be up top as that’s where Pardew liked him playing most.
Also Im not going for the premium goalkeeper so need some good defenders. Your strategy should work though as Chelsea should still be a solid defence.
Bentekers all the way for me. Not even close. If he can score hatty’s for a team like Villa watcha think he can do at Pool?
I’m interested in Chester but the question remains is he a starter? If so, will he be 4.5m or 5.0m? At 5.0m he’s not an option in my humble opinion.
Ye thats true I’m just looking ahead to having no Liverpool cover when I have to sell him.
Ye if he’s 5 mil I won’t be getting him but if he’s 4.5 ill definitely consider him I think.
MattX – Chester is a decent signing but he doesn’t change their schedule. Avoid, for me. Your team looks good. A few games into the season you’ll be able to judge which L’pool player to get rid of. Losing both of them might be the right play, when the time comes 😉
NIN – I haven’t even looked at the West Brom fixtures as they hadn’t interested me until Chester. That could be very true
GP – That’s what has interested me he was always one of Hulls best players and could attack aswell. Well a few people have said to get rid of my double pool attack so that would mean I only have one but I think I might just keep both Milner and Tekkers as Milner has been unreal and Tekkers should be a good signing.
MattX
Chester would be a decent addition to West Brom and the fantasy game – knack of getting a goal every now and then and would probably improve under Pulis.
If you did swap Rooney and Benteke to get Aguero, you would still have Milner as Liverpool coverage would you not? Have I missed something??
Who would you rather have from these choices?
Roon & Henderson / Milner
Giroud & Caz / Mata
Benteke & Walcott
I’d say the 3rd one if Wally was a guarantee
Hey Pho – Roo & Milner for me.
photek
Rooney and Milner has a nice feel to it.
Thanks guys,
I’ve currently got Roon and Hendo but if go that way with Haz and Sterling in my mids i have no Arsenal coverage, do you think i need someone from Arsenal?
Anybody know if Anya for Watford is likely to be a regular? I’d rather have an attacking 4.5 mid than Wanyama or Barry.
Also, is Lallana likely to have a better season this time round? Could be a differential with all the Hendo/Milner love going around.
I hope he does become a starter I think hes a good player but Watford have bought so many players the only nailed on player is Deeney.
I think the problem with Lallana is he could get rotated a lot as there is so many midfielders in his position
i don’t know if his nailed on but his currently my 5th for the same reason, rather have a more attack minded player
webstar
On his day he can weigh in with the odd goal and potentially some assists but his gametime is questionable. There doesn’t seem to be any guaranteed 4.5M midfielders besides defensive ones.
I’d say its dangerous to avoid Milner and Henderson just because they seem popular. Get the best player you can. Milner shades it for me.