Analytical Guide to Fixtures GW1 – GW8
This article looks to review the importance of a team’s fixtures and how to use rotation in a slightly different way to the existing tools and opinions available on FPL selection.
The highlights (for the opening 8 GW’s) are:
Attacking
– Arsenal and Man United look the strongest of the big teams
– Southampton and Swansea are good for mid priced teams
– Leicester and Bournemouth are likely to be the best budget teams (and both rotate well with Crystal Palace)
Defending
– Chelsea are the stand out team defensively
– Southampton and West ham are good for mid priced teams
– Leicester and West Brom are the best budget options (and rotate well with West ham and Southampton)
In general
– There are some teams that have very strong fixtures and so don’t need to be rotated (Chelsea and the attacks of Arsenal, Man Utd and Man City)
– There are a few teams I would steer well clear of for the first 8 weeks (Newcastle, Watford, Norwich)
– Always remember that some players can be fixture proof; regardless of the team they play for.
– Always have an Exit/Entry strategy in place as team fixtures change, the bargains become obvious and Aguero becomes fit.
If understanding how I got to these conclusions is of interest then read on… otherwise good luck this year.
The importance of rotation for your FPL team….
with analysis on the opening 8 GW’s of the 2015/16 season.
There are some very good fixture analysers (and opinions) out there in the FPL community. Some of them are very helpful for team planning when used correctly. The one thing I have consistently found is that they place too much reliance on rotating pairs, both home and away, (e.g. Newcastle and Sunderland) and less emphasis on the quality of the opposition. Personally I would rather have Stoke away to Sunderland than Newcastle at home to Everton…
An important omission from this article (one for another day) is the importance of having an entry and exit strategy for all your players. Injuries happen, bargains become available, standout players shine, transfers happen and big game players become fit again. Be mindful on this as long term planning is key to a successful season and all poor teams have a couple of good players… Although 2 wildcards does help.
For the purpose of this analysis (and how I like to pick my team) I have a few criteria I like to follow. These are:
– Always separate a team’s attacking potential from its defensive potential.
– Form, playing style, player’s average ability all factor into a team’s potential.
– Don’t underestimate the positive (and negative) impact of transfers/injuries.
– Playing home and away have an impact as well (but it’s not the most important thing).
– Big Teams can have bad fixtures.
– Small Teams can have good fixtures.
– Every team no matter how bad has a couple of standout players (there is an ‘I’ in some teams).
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The opening 8 fixtures
I have chosen to look at the opening 8 fixtures for this year’s season, as you have to plan, but beyond 8-10 weeks is too far in FPL. Remember to factor in your weekly transfers as the fixtures shift and with it so do the fortunes of your budget teams. Having a banked transfer always helps and avoids unnecessary point’s hits.
The opening fixtures look like this:
Based on the opening 8 fixtures I would expect the league table to be ordered something like this:
(*Please note that this reflects the teams overall ability and ,as mentioned above, to get a team’s true potential for FPL you need to break them out into attacking potential and defensive potential.)
Focussing on the overall fixtures could lead to some incorrect assumptions around which FPL players to choose. While on face value the above table suggests it is best to steer clear of the bottom 5-6 teams there is definitely value in some of them. Going on just the overall view of the teams we can see the following likelihood of the teams having positive opening results:
When we split out the teams attacking and defensive ability and look to rotate you can find a lot of value in those bottom (budget) teams. The “Pulis affect” at West Brom is one I particularly like for their defence (especially when rotating with Southampton or Palace).
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Looking at the top 6 teams we can see that for all of them their attacks are likely to do well. However all, except Chelsea, are likely to have a harder time defensively.
In order to achieve an optimal FPL return it is clear that you need to adopt a balanced approach between players from the big 6, mid table and budget teams. The key to the latter 2 is rotation pairs.
To identify which teams you should pick players from it is important to know, defensively and offensively, who needs to rotate and who will stand on their own.
Attack rotation need:
No Rotation
– Arsenal, Chelsea, Man City, Man Utd, Tottenham
Low Rotation
– Liverpool, Southampton
Rotate
– Villa, Bournemouth, Palace, Everton, Leicester, Stoke, Swansea, West ham
Avoid (unless stand out bargain is obvious)
– Newcastle, Norwich, Sunderland, Watford, West Brom
Defence rotation need:
No Rotation
– Chelsea
Low Rotation
– Arsenal, Man City, Man Utd, Southampton
Rotate
– Villa, Bournemouth, Palace, Everton, Leicester, Liverpool, Stoke, Swansea, Tottenham, West Brom, West ham
Avoid (unless stand out bargain is obvious)
– Newcastle, Norwich, Sunderland, Watford
So focussing on the teams with a rotation need who do they rotate well with?
Each team with a rotation need has 2-3 good options. Rotate 1 is the best but in all cases the rotation sees a big positive impact. Team type determines if they are a big 6 (1), mid table (2) or budget team (3) so aiming for budget rotations frees up more cash.
Attacking Rotations:
Defensive Rotations:
There are clearly plenty of options available in both attack and defence. Personally I recommend rotating budget teams with a mid-table team or another budget team. For my defence I will be looking at a combined cost of £9-9.5million per pair. For my attackers I will look to rotate based on my available funds once I have 8-9 of the team selected.
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As a case study we could take newly promoted Bournemouth and look to rotate them with the best budget/Mid table team.
By combining West Hams defence (options at £5.0m) with Bournemouth’s (options at £4.5m) we will be likely to rival that of Man City’s and Arsenal’s £6m defenders. In attack choosing Players such as Bournemouth’s Matt Ritchie (On Pens) and Palace’s Patrick Bamford (championship player of the season) you can fill up 2 attacking slots for less than £12m freeing up cash to get the all important heavy hitters. This might not seem a lot but it’s the difference between Oscar and Hazard in your team. And you get 7-8 good to great fixtures in the next 8 weeks:
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Conclusion:
There are plenty of options available for team rotations in the opening 8 game weeks. By aiming for budget options you can end up with 1 or 2 extra, and very important, heavy hitters.
In attack I recommend:
– 3-4 players from Man Utd, Arsenal, Chelsea and Man City.
– 1 player from a mid table team (or looks cheap) who has big potential (e.g. -Bolasie/Milner/Tadic/Schneiderlin)
– 3-5 players from mid table and budget teams that rotate well (and ideally take pens or set pieces)
In defence I recommend:
– A nailed on Chelsea defender
– 2 budget keepers who rotate well
– 2 pairs of budget/mid table defenders who rotate well (e.g. Southampton/West Brom and West Ham/Leicester)
Important additions:
– Every team has a stand out player (or two), from defence and attack, who suck up most of their teams points (e.g. Janmaat at Newcastle and Sigurdson at Swansea). These guys can be almost fixture proof as the heavy hitters.
– Plan for injuries, transfers, the fixture landscape changing and spotting the season bargains early. Banked transfers help to react to these.
Following all of this you have a great chance to get a head start on your mini-league rivals.
Good luck for the season and if you like what you have read then please follow –
And many thanks to the following for the proof read and recommendations –
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Chester agrees 8mil move to WBA and should have the medical today…
Played 171 games for Hull and scored 8 goals… Think he was their VC as well.
http://www.skysports.com/football/news/11698/9927246/west-brom-agree-1638m-fee-for-hull-citys-james-chester
Im guessing he will be a starter for them but will cost 5m
Liverpool’s Andre Wisdom is set to join Norwich on a season long loan.
Really I thought Rodgers said he won’t send him out on loan.
Looks like Gomez is preferred as cover.
Ye that’s true
Afternoon Kop, cookie and everyone else. I hope you’re all well.
Need some opinions if I may? I’m trying to decide which pair of players is likely to be better
Chadli and Benteke or
Milner and Kane
Speak of the devil, he just arrived.
Milner and Kane for me Fergie.
Is there any particular reason for this Chins?
Mainly that i think they’ll score more fantasy points. 😉
I think Benteke might take a while to get his link up play going and i’m not sure if Liverpool play to his strengths. – I haven’t been paying close attention but Benteke being the big unit he is looks like he’d do well from crosses rather than balls through the middle. Do Liverpool play that way? I’m not sure.
Kane knows his team mates and will be fired up to have a great season in order to secure his dream move to Arsenal next summer.
Milner i think will do well given the game time and a lot of the Liverpool stuff comes through the middle so he’ll be involved in most things. Chadli has been hot and cold. I think Milners performances are more consistent.
Hey Fergie,
tricky one and to be honest I fancy there won’t be much between them at the end of the season. In that regard I’d go Chadli and Benteke and save yourself 1mln.
Thank you to you both Chins and Cookie.
I’ve currently gone for Benteke/Chadli and looking at how best to use the money to improve on my squad. Tbh, it’s a case of upgrading a 4.5m mid and a back up defender.
My current scheme is to use the wildcard to get Aguero in for game week 4 and hopefully have identified some cheap starters
Woah woah woah – I didn’t know they weren’t the same total costs!
You really need to be clearer Fergie!!! 😉
LOL poor form on my part… Yes the Benteke/ Chadli combination is 1.0m cheaper ????
Current squad
Ruddy/Rudd
Merts Azpi Shaw yoshida Taylor
Sterling cazorla Chadli Ritchie Davis
Rooney Benteke Costa
That’d be a great 4.5 pick up. Should be a starter for them. What u think?
Yeah I expect him to start.
You think Benteke will hit the ground running, or maybe better to upgrade to Rooney?
YNWA
I’d go with Rooney to begin with as he’s got a great record against the teams United play early.
Definitely Rooney for me.
YMCA
Leicester have attempted to hijack West Brom’s £8m move for Hull City defender James Chester, according to the Yorkshire Post.
Afternoon all, thoughts on this mob please, 1mill itb towards Shrek to Kun. I was thinking also that last season Haz scored 68pts more than Fab. If you put Fab in your squad, do you think the money saved, if used wisely, could make up that shortfall in pts ?
No
Hey Elle this team is starting to look familiar its a good solid team GK & Def good Ars & Che cover Mf I would prefer Milner over Hendo & fwd line good to go , 1.5m isn’t going to improve to much here points wise & Haz has already said he needs to score more goals this season so I would hang onto him. What we need is Kun to get injured did I really say that.
Elle,
It’s not bad mate, I’m going to give Benteke a while to see how he does, but with your obvious love for the Reds i don’t blame you for taking a punt on him.
I’m not sure about Cazorla. I know a lot have him in their teams, but i’d rather have Ramsey or Ozil. Caz played a lot last season in the role that Ozil is going to take this season. I can’t see him getting the direct freekicks either.
I’d rather have Milner than Hendo. – I think Milner will do really well playing regularly (i still remember him from his Villa days). He’ll score a lot of goals i think.
Other than that….
Elle, may I ask again why Henderson and not Milner? I’m interested in your decision, as a Liverpool fan.
Afternoon Cookster, all well down your way ? At the moment Hendo is on pennos, he takes the corners and a lot of frre-kicks, so a few assists maybe. That could all change though.
Thanks Elle – has Milner not taken any set pieces in preseason? I know he took his fair share at City, when he on the pitch. I’m talking free kicks and corners, mainly as I guess bEnteke would be on pens going forward?
Hendo as far as i know on corners, free-kicks could be shared and as for pennos its Hendo as far as i know, although Benteke, Milner, Coutinho, Lallana or Ings have taken pennos before. Benteke could be the one to challenge Hendo as it may give him confidence going forward, bagging goals wise.
” I’m interested in your decision, as a Liverpool fan.”
Never knew you supported Liverpool, Cookie. I think the argument is that Henderson is on most set pieces and he is on penalty duty? Milner has the form. Hard choice. Shrugs, I just want Bentekers. I’ll look at how the players do in the last few preseason games though.
Sssshhh Raz, go and give NIN a hug
The way he’s been acting I think I need to give him some of this shit first. :dance:
Will you be applying it orally?
I’ll have one of my henchman apply it. If you look at his face, you’d think it will be done orally.
Have amended and barring any last minute signings or injuries i’m good to go for the new season
Shocked not many have gone for Adrian n Boruc as their two keepers, their rotation over the first 8 weeks is top
I think Boruc has lost his spot to Stekelnburg, no? Anyone else have info on that?
Colriles – Boruc now plays for Bournemouth
A ha. Makes much more sense. :stupid:
Many are skeptical on the hammers this season with them being involved in the Europa league and with Bilic as the new manager, 5.0m is also a touch expensive for a rotating keeper with more people seeing the extra value in two 4.5m keepers.
Hi number plate,
In the old games, when a top keeper was 6.0+ i might agree with you. But a top 4 keeper + a 4.0m back up now costs the same as that West Ham / Bournemouth combo.
I know what you mean, that on paper at first glance the rotation gives you good match ups. But… In 4 of the 8 games you’re relying on Bournemouth!! It doesn’t matter if they are at home and playing a bottom half team, I’m still nervous.
I think if i was to place a bet, i’d bet that Chelsea will get more clean sheets in those first 8 games than that rotating pair. – And the cost is the same. Even when Chelsea are at City and Arsenal, they’ll park the bus so a CS isn’t out of the question.
Anyway – Your call mate. Good luck!
Old games??!? What the fudge am i talking about. I meant “old days”. Whoops.