Analytical Guide to Fixtures GW1 – GW8
This article looks to review the importance of a team’s fixtures and how to use rotation in a slightly different way to the existing tools and opinions available on FPL selection.
The highlights (for the opening 8 GW’s) are:
Attacking
– Arsenal and Man United look the strongest of the big teams
– Southampton and Swansea are good for mid priced teams
– Leicester and Bournemouth are likely to be the best budget teams (and both rotate well with Crystal Palace)
Defending
– Chelsea are the stand out team defensively
– Southampton and West ham are good for mid priced teams
– Leicester and West Brom are the best budget options (and rotate well with West ham and Southampton)
In general
– There are some teams that have very strong fixtures and so don’t need to be rotated (Chelsea and the attacks of Arsenal, Man Utd and Man City)
– There are a few teams I would steer well clear of for the first 8 weeks (Newcastle, Watford, Norwich)
– Always remember that some players can be fixture proof; regardless of the team they play for.
– Always have an Exit/Entry strategy in place as team fixtures change, the bargains become obvious and Aguero becomes fit.
If understanding how I got to these conclusions is of interest then read on… otherwise good luck this year.
The importance of rotation for your FPL team….
with analysis on the opening 8 GW’s of the 2015/16 season.
There are some very good fixture analysers (and opinions) out there in the FPL community. Some of them are very helpful for team planning when used correctly. The one thing I have consistently found is that they place too much reliance on rotating pairs, both home and away, (e.g. Newcastle and Sunderland) and less emphasis on the quality of the opposition. Personally I would rather have Stoke away to Sunderland than Newcastle at home to Everton…
An important omission from this article (one for another day) is the importance of having an entry and exit strategy for all your players. Injuries happen, bargains become available, standout players shine, transfers happen and big game players become fit again. Be mindful on this as long term planning is key to a successful season and all poor teams have a couple of good players… Although 2 wildcards does help.
For the purpose of this analysis (and how I like to pick my team) I have a few criteria I like to follow. These are:
– Always separate a team’s attacking potential from its defensive potential.
– Form, playing style, player’s average ability all factor into a team’s potential.
– Don’t underestimate the positive (and negative) impact of transfers/injuries.
– Playing home and away have an impact as well (but it’s not the most important thing).
– Big Teams can have bad fixtures.
– Small Teams can have good fixtures.
– Every team no matter how bad has a couple of standout players (there is an ‘I’ in some teams).
[divider_1px]
The opening 8 fixtures
I have chosen to look at the opening 8 fixtures for this year’s season, as you have to plan, but beyond 8-10 weeks is too far in FPL. Remember to factor in your weekly transfers as the fixtures shift and with it so do the fortunes of your budget teams. Having a banked transfer always helps and avoids unnecessary point’s hits.
The opening fixtures look like this:
Based on the opening 8 fixtures I would expect the league table to be ordered something like this:
(*Please note that this reflects the teams overall ability and ,as mentioned above, to get a team’s true potential for FPL you need to break them out into attacking potential and defensive potential.)
Focussing on the overall fixtures could lead to some incorrect assumptions around which FPL players to choose. While on face value the above table suggests it is best to steer clear of the bottom 5-6 teams there is definitely value in some of them. Going on just the overall view of the teams we can see the following likelihood of the teams having positive opening results:
When we split out the teams attacking and defensive ability and look to rotate you can find a lot of value in those bottom (budget) teams. The “Pulis affect” at West Brom is one I particularly like for their defence (especially when rotating with Southampton or Palace).
[row][span6]
[/span6]
[span6]
[/span6][/row]
Looking at the top 6 teams we can see that for all of them their attacks are likely to do well. However all, except Chelsea, are likely to have a harder time defensively.
In order to achieve an optimal FPL return it is clear that you need to adopt a balanced approach between players from the big 6, mid table and budget teams. The key to the latter 2 is rotation pairs.
To identify which teams you should pick players from it is important to know, defensively and offensively, who needs to rotate and who will stand on their own.
Attack rotation need:
No Rotation
– Arsenal, Chelsea, Man City, Man Utd, Tottenham
Low Rotation
– Liverpool, Southampton
Rotate
– Villa, Bournemouth, Palace, Everton, Leicester, Stoke, Swansea, West ham
Avoid (unless stand out bargain is obvious)
– Newcastle, Norwich, Sunderland, Watford, West Brom
Defence rotation need:
No Rotation
– Chelsea
Low Rotation
– Arsenal, Man City, Man Utd, Southampton
Rotate
– Villa, Bournemouth, Palace, Everton, Leicester, Liverpool, Stoke, Swansea, Tottenham, West Brom, West ham
Avoid (unless stand out bargain is obvious)
– Newcastle, Norwich, Sunderland, Watford
So focussing on the teams with a rotation need who do they rotate well with?
Each team with a rotation need has 2-3 good options. Rotate 1 is the best but in all cases the rotation sees a big positive impact. Team type determines if they are a big 6 (1), mid table (2) or budget team (3) so aiming for budget rotations frees up more cash.
Attacking Rotations:
Defensive Rotations:
There are clearly plenty of options available in both attack and defence. Personally I recommend rotating budget teams with a mid-table team or another budget team. For my defence I will be looking at a combined cost of £9-9.5million per pair. For my attackers I will look to rotate based on my available funds once I have 8-9 of the team selected.
[divider_1px]
As a case study we could take newly promoted Bournemouth and look to rotate them with the best budget/Mid table team.
By combining West Hams defence (options at £5.0m) with Bournemouth’s (options at £4.5m) we will be likely to rival that of Man City’s and Arsenal’s £6m defenders. In attack choosing Players such as Bournemouth’s Matt Ritchie (On Pens) and Palace’s Patrick Bamford (championship player of the season) you can fill up 2 attacking slots for less than £12m freeing up cash to get the all important heavy hitters. This might not seem a lot but it’s the difference between Oscar and Hazard in your team. And you get 7-8 good to great fixtures in the next 8 weeks:
[divider_1px]
Conclusion:
There are plenty of options available for team rotations in the opening 8 game weeks. By aiming for budget options you can end up with 1 or 2 extra, and very important, heavy hitters.
In attack I recommend:
– 3-4 players from Man Utd, Arsenal, Chelsea and Man City.
– 1 player from a mid table team (or looks cheap) who has big potential (e.g. -Bolasie/Milner/Tadic/Schneiderlin)
– 3-5 players from mid table and budget teams that rotate well (and ideally take pens or set pieces)
In defence I recommend:
– A nailed on Chelsea defender
– 2 budget keepers who rotate well
– 2 pairs of budget/mid table defenders who rotate well (e.g. Southampton/West Brom and West Ham/Leicester)
Important additions:
– Every team has a stand out player (or two), from defence and attack, who suck up most of their teams points (e.g. Janmaat at Newcastle and Sigurdson at Swansea). These guys can be almost fixture proof as the heavy hitters.
– Plan for injuries, transfers, the fixture landscape changing and spotting the season bargains early. Banked transfers help to react to these.
Following all of this you have a great chance to get a head start on your mini-league rivals.
Good luck for the season and if you like what you have read then please follow –
And many thanks to the following for the proof read and recommendations –
[divider_1px]
So with the great announcement that the Woofbet site will be sponsoring the main FF247 league I’ll be after an added advantage against the competition this season, with that in mind RMT.
haha love that!!
I’m not sure you have the balance right here :big-lol:
Oi, where’s Van Basten at? Ain’t no all star team without Marco!
I’d have to relinquish one of the Brazil 70 treble to get the 88 Marco in, not sure if I’d be happy with that one.
There’s always room for Marco.. tut tut :noshake:
I’d captain Senderos.
Forever wise
How are things bud? All good i hope..
Things are good thanks NIN. Just struggling with motivation today.
What better reason to finally look over our doubles team?
Ha Calvin! – That’s not helping! 😉
Wait. What am i doing back on here again?!?!
Anyone looking @ Awey his stats are quite good?
Ask again Anyone looking @ Awey his stats are quite good? or best 7m Mf although Awey could be a good price diff
Do you mean Ayew for Swansea??
He’s certainly on my radar but there are a lot of new signings in his price range that could be worth considering. Cabaye, Lens, Wijnaldum, Ayew and Payet all look like they could do well. But which one do you pick?
He could be a good shout mate, he wont be in my team but he’s one i’ll be watching closely. I think his brother signed for Villa recently, he’s one to avoid like the plague!
please RMT and suggest captain thanks?
The starting eleven look real strong but your bench has taken a massive hit because of it with only Wanyama looking likely to play, I’d still sacrifice either Caz or Depay for some Citteh coverage though, an extra .5 could be saved on Kos -> Merts and then you could afford Sterling who will more than likely start GW 1 up front IF Aguero isn’t ready to go.
Wow. Didn’t realise that Kos and Mert aren’t the same price!! I’d definitely do that move!
Yeah, behind the scenes people are saying Gabriel could be used more often this season. Def. not 3000 minutes for Merte this season, injured or not.
So Kos and Cech are the best bets imho.
Where’s that coming from? I was hoping Mertesacker would be a viable option.
Well I think it’s possible that Gabriel could at some point replace Mertesacker in the starting XI this season but I don’t think he would be rotated. If a centre back is dropped, then they’re dropped. If that does happen then you can just sell Mert for Gabriel and be done with it.
Just rumors, people been spreading them here. Not getting them from anywhere else. 😉
Having said that, last year everybody was like Terry will be rested (during Xmas) so I bought Cahill, and who was rested? F-ing Cahill.
We’ll have to wait and see. Also read somewhere Chelsea just signed a new leftback, young player. For 8m or something. For that price you’d think they play him? Atleast once or twice this season?
No way is Mert losing his place this season (unless he gets injured of course)
Yes Mert is slow and got showed up a couple of times last season, but we have Kos’s pace to bail us out of trouble.
Gabriel did well when called upon but i doubt he’ll get more than cup games and the odd prem game either side of a big champions league match up. His appearances outside of injury cover will be really limited. Plus, Wenger will be looking to bring Chambers into learn / cover the CB position.
Chelsea signed a Brazilian international in Luis for 15m and didn’t bother playing him much so I don’t think Azpi will have anything to fear from an 8m player, speaking of Luis he’s just signed for Athletico again today so I’m not surprised that someone else has been brought in as cover, I do reckon that this is the year that we’ll see less of JT though, as great as he is father time might just be creeping up on him.
On Merts I think at the least he starts the season as Kos’s partner in crime at the heart of the Arsenal defense with Gabriel only coming in if Merts form is no good, I do agree that I’d rather have Kos as my main Arsenal coverage though.
Ah, okay then. He’s back in the mix so.
Cant see that kid getting games ahead of Azpilicueta. You never know, but he has some job on his hands as a player of the standard of Luis could barely get a sniff. Rightfully so, too.
I think i’d captain Costa from that lot.
I have my doubts about the Man Utd defence, and about Cazorlas fantasy output.
Redmond is a bit of a differential but might do well.
It looks like you’ll be playing both Redmond and Wilson every week. – I think i’d be tempted to take some value out somewhere to upgrade one of them. It’s a balanced team front to back which i like, But i think the better points might come from a cheaper back line and more spent in your front 7.
im also thinking for GW1 have sterling for hazard to have city cover then GW 3 make the two subs of sterling to hazard and then costa to augero. Im worried about mert not playing.
something like this
Please help this American rate this team. Cheers
I’m not sure I like the defence too much if I’m honest…baker and mariappa are probably not starters so you may be left with only 3 defenders.
I quite like the rest of the team..
Well, look what the wind has blown in!! Allo Fergie lad, you well?
Hello cookie… I’m doing well if a little confused but not much new there I guess
Tosser
Wait – That was meant for Cookie – Not you Fergie!!
#Whoops
It can go for either.
atk is good but def may need work. Fonte and jags are good but rest not good. keepers could work together rotating well. Have a feeling man utd will do well with easy fixtures excluding GW1
I still have 4.5 to spend looking to upgrade to Aguero when fit … who do u recommend in the back?
This is a question i’ve been mulling over for a while now, it’s proving tough..
Cech&van Aanholt, or, Pantilimon&Mertesacker?
Whichever way it goes, the defender will be first 11 more often than not which makes the latter option appeal more to me. Thoughts appreciated as always, go!
Hi NIN,
I would go for Cech plus a 5m def. Not sure about vA though for that price. If you want SUN coverage, you can downgrade him to O’Shea (yellow cards incomming) and use that 0,5m elsewhere. I myself have went for the following defensive line:
GK: Cech / Schwarzer (most likely to play from the 4m GK)
DEF: Cedrik, Azpi, O’Shea, Mertesacker, Baker
Hope you find it helpful and would appreciate your feedback as well.
Thanks xaoc. Yeah i want a Sunderland defender but i really wouldn’t like O’Shea in my team every week, which the defender would have to be. Your defence is pretty stacked but, is there need for double Arsenal? I’d maybe lose one of those and get a starter in for Baker..
Well, the plan is to play Cedric, Azpi and Mert most weeks and only bring in O’Shea when the main 3 have tough fixtures. I though a lot about the double Arsenal, but I believe that they will have a good start of the season with those fixtures. Baker is just a filler. Which GK would you go for if you plan to use just one?
P.S. I am also keeping an eye on Darmian in order to switch Mertesacker, but I want to see how United will start (GK situation, CB pairing) and see who will be the main choice for the RB.
Hi NIN,
I’d actually go with the first option, but for the same logic as you! – CS’s will be the same in both pairings, so it’s down to who offers you the most in attack/BPs. I’d go with VanA over Mert.
Fair point chins. Maybe i’m just OCD’d up to the eyeballs and cant hack two Sunderland outfield jerseys in my first 11
van Aanholt certainly beats Mertesacker for attacking returns, but how will Pantilimon do vs Cech? I have a vision of Pantilimon being the highest scoring GK after about 15 GW’s. Their fixtures are so good..
Considering that schedule, his ownership is beyond a joke too. There’s a fortune to be made there.. maybe.
You sure? 5m is a lot for a goalie, especially if you consider Sunderland were part of a relegation battle last season. Pantsuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu is a freaking hero, but 5m is even a bit too much for me.
“Pantsuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu is a freaking hero”
^^ This. He’s worth £5m, no doubt about it. Do you still have that comparison thing you did last season with him and the premium GK’s? If i remember correctly he was destroying all of them, and getting feck all CS’s.
I agree, and I too have Pant in my team. The way I see it, most weeks Pants will save lots of half-chances and rack up massive save/bonus points, whereas Cech will mostly be exposed to counterattacks. If Cech doesn’t get the clean sheet, he becomes a two pointer.
True that on the Pantsuuuuuuuuuuu goalie thing. Sighs. That worked for the first part but I remember him disappointing towards the end of the season. >.<
On that note, he scored big against teams like Chelsea and City. Scoring monster hauls versus those teams, +10 with 15 saves.
Exactly mate. Those save points kept dodgy defensive weeks in decent condition. As Los said, 2 point weeks are almost non existent with him, and CS’s can be hug, huge hauls.
NiN. You expect him to be the goalie of the season again? I remember Tim Krul having a really good season with a lot of saves a few years back, he was terrible last season. Leicester were terrible at defending last season (or started out that way) but they got better and better. Summed up their 3 goalies managed to get 133 points. Their first and second goalie are both class (Schmeichel and Schwarzer) and with a little better defending this season it isn’t unlikely they outscore Sunderland. Both have superb fixtures to start out with.
He could be. GW1-14 could bring a lot of points for him. In fact, an absolute boat load is quite possible. Ranieri turns me off Leicester. I had planned to have triple Leicester but that changed when he got the job. It’s worth thinking about anyway. 1.9% ownership is a farce, all things considered.
Isn’t he a coach that follows the conservative Italian style? A lot of defending, a lot of draws or 1 goal difference wins?
Interesting. If you use Pantsu’s points/minutes, he would have an estimated 167 points if he played all 3420 minutes. I think that’s probably higher than any other keeper. Courtois would have only got 147. Although if you instead added Courtois and Cech’s score (probably a fairer estimate) you would get 159.
I actually don’t like either combinations as I don’t like the valuation of Sunderland players at 5m, for that price you could get starting defensive coverage from Liverpool and I’d take both Migs and Moreno to outscore any SAFC defender over the course of a season.
Cheers Andy, but eh, me and Liverpool defence are done after last season. I need stronger fixtures than theirs too, really wouldn’t fancy playing Moreno in those away games..
NIN, Liverpool have BOU, WHU, NOR and AVL in their first 7, not bad fixtures from where I’m sitting
Hi CC. I need someone to play every week for this draft. The away games man, they’re pish until GW15 or something. I’m really leaning towards Pant/Mert now.
Ah OK. I’ve got triple ‘Pool but will be shipping out Clyne and Hendo after GW7 at the latest. when their fixtures take a turn for the worse.
Pant/Mert is probably wise as Pant should at least get a bunch of save points. Only four teams conceded more than Sun last season so I’m guessing his goal will be peppered!
Don’t suppose you could stretch for another 0.5 and get Kos? What’s your team looking like?
CC – This is draft 4 so far. init will have a field day with my 3rd sub selection 😉 Could easily go Jenko and up Mert to Kos, although, the above article really hammered home a few good points and Cresswell may just do a number on those early home games. (still reckon they’re shite though and are in trouble in the long run)
Right, my niece just arrived for a visit so i got’s to go. Catch you all later :thumbup:
Hmmmm. Dick Advocaat sets his teams up right, could mean cleansheets. But I don’t know. Not impressed with the Sunderland core.
Yeah defenses are only as good as their weakest links and the CB trio of O’shea, Brown and Kaboul don’t fill me with much confidence, it was like a car crash at times last season.
Yeah, and the weirdest thing about these smaller teams is that the goalies tend to score a lot of points and saves versus the big teams. 1 mistake against the smaller teams and you can end up with 1 or 2 points (with just 1 or 2 saves).
I must say, I like Leicester chances better this season. Last season they started terrible but finished great. In the end, if you add up the points all their goalies grabbed it’s 137 or something. Their first and second goalie are 4,5 and 4,0m and both are class goalies. Think I prefer that combo over the Sunderland one. 5m is much and who says he’ll do the same this season. Forgot about PvA though, that one is a bit more interesting at 5.0, will grab more bps and assists than Toby.
Yeah I carrot decide whether to go one really cheap keeper and hope for the save points or go Courtois as Chelsea defensive cover
Yeah I carrot decide whether to go one really cheap keeper and hope for the save points or go Courtois as Chelsea defensive cover.
On another note looks like Adebayor might be on his way to Villa