Analytical Guide to Fixtures GW1 – GW8
This article looks to review the importance of a team’s fixtures and how to use rotation in a slightly different way to the existing tools and opinions available on FPL selection.
The highlights (for the opening 8 GW’s) are:
Attacking
– Arsenal and Man United look the strongest of the big teams
– Southampton and Swansea are good for mid priced teams
– Leicester and Bournemouth are likely to be the best budget teams (and both rotate well with Crystal Palace)
Defending
– Chelsea are the stand out team defensively
– Southampton and West ham are good for mid priced teams
– Leicester and West Brom are the best budget options (and rotate well with West ham and Southampton)
In general
– There are some teams that have very strong fixtures and so don’t need to be rotated (Chelsea and the attacks of Arsenal, Man Utd and Man City)
– There are a few teams I would steer well clear of for the first 8 weeks (Newcastle, Watford, Norwich)
– Always remember that some players can be fixture proof; regardless of the team they play for.
– Always have an Exit/Entry strategy in place as team fixtures change, the bargains become obvious and Aguero becomes fit.
If understanding how I got to these conclusions is of interest then read on… otherwise good luck this year.
The importance of rotation for your FPL team….
with analysis on the opening 8 GW’s of the 2015/16 season.
There are some very good fixture analysers (and opinions) out there in the FPL community. Some of them are very helpful for team planning when used correctly. The one thing I have consistently found is that they place too much reliance on rotating pairs, both home and away, (e.g. Newcastle and Sunderland) and less emphasis on the quality of the opposition. Personally I would rather have Stoke away to Sunderland than Newcastle at home to Everton…
An important omission from this article (one for another day) is the importance of having an entry and exit strategy for all your players. Injuries happen, bargains become available, standout players shine, transfers happen and big game players become fit again. Be mindful on this as long term planning is key to a successful season and all poor teams have a couple of good players… Although 2 wildcards does help.
For the purpose of this analysis (and how I like to pick my team) I have a few criteria I like to follow. These are:
– Always separate a team’s attacking potential from its defensive potential.
– Form, playing style, player’s average ability all factor into a team’s potential.
– Don’t underestimate the positive (and negative) impact of transfers/injuries.
– Playing home and away have an impact as well (but it’s not the most important thing).
– Big Teams can have bad fixtures.
– Small Teams can have good fixtures.
– Every team no matter how bad has a couple of standout players (there is an ‘I’ in some teams).
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The opening 8 fixtures
I have chosen to look at the opening 8 fixtures for this year’s season, as you have to plan, but beyond 8-10 weeks is too far in FPL. Remember to factor in your weekly transfers as the fixtures shift and with it so do the fortunes of your budget teams. Having a banked transfer always helps and avoids unnecessary point’s hits.
The opening fixtures look like this:
Based on the opening 8 fixtures I would expect the league table to be ordered something like this:
(*Please note that this reflects the teams overall ability and ,as mentioned above, to get a team’s true potential for FPL you need to break them out into attacking potential and defensive potential.)
Focussing on the overall fixtures could lead to some incorrect assumptions around which FPL players to choose. While on face value the above table suggests it is best to steer clear of the bottom 5-6 teams there is definitely value in some of them. Going on just the overall view of the teams we can see the following likelihood of the teams having positive opening results:
When we split out the teams attacking and defensive ability and look to rotate you can find a lot of value in those bottom (budget) teams. The “Pulis affect” at West Brom is one I particularly like for their defence (especially when rotating with Southampton or Palace).
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Looking at the top 6 teams we can see that for all of them their attacks are likely to do well. However all, except Chelsea, are likely to have a harder time defensively.
In order to achieve an optimal FPL return it is clear that you need to adopt a balanced approach between players from the big 6, mid table and budget teams. The key to the latter 2 is rotation pairs.
To identify which teams you should pick players from it is important to know, defensively and offensively, who needs to rotate and who will stand on their own.
Attack rotation need:
No Rotation
– Arsenal, Chelsea, Man City, Man Utd, Tottenham
Low Rotation
– Liverpool, Southampton
Rotate
– Villa, Bournemouth, Palace, Everton, Leicester, Stoke, Swansea, West ham
Avoid (unless stand out bargain is obvious)
– Newcastle, Norwich, Sunderland, Watford, West Brom
Defence rotation need:
No Rotation
– Chelsea
Low Rotation
– Arsenal, Man City, Man Utd, Southampton
Rotate
– Villa, Bournemouth, Palace, Everton, Leicester, Liverpool, Stoke, Swansea, Tottenham, West Brom, West ham
Avoid (unless stand out bargain is obvious)
– Newcastle, Norwich, Sunderland, Watford
So focussing on the teams with a rotation need who do they rotate well with?
Each team with a rotation need has 2-3 good options. Rotate 1 is the best but in all cases the rotation sees a big positive impact. Team type determines if they are a big 6 (1), mid table (2) or budget team (3) so aiming for budget rotations frees up more cash.
Attacking Rotations:
Defensive Rotations:
There are clearly plenty of options available in both attack and defence. Personally I recommend rotating budget teams with a mid-table team or another budget team. For my defence I will be looking at a combined cost of £9-9.5million per pair. For my attackers I will look to rotate based on my available funds once I have 8-9 of the team selected.
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As a case study we could take newly promoted Bournemouth and look to rotate them with the best budget/Mid table team.
By combining West Hams defence (options at £5.0m) with Bournemouth’s (options at £4.5m) we will be likely to rival that of Man City’s and Arsenal’s £6m defenders. In attack choosing Players such as Bournemouth’s Matt Ritchie (On Pens) and Palace’s Patrick Bamford (championship player of the season) you can fill up 2 attacking slots for less than £12m freeing up cash to get the all important heavy hitters. This might not seem a lot but it’s the difference between Oscar and Hazard in your team. And you get 7-8 good to great fixtures in the next 8 weeks:
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Conclusion:
There are plenty of options available for team rotations in the opening 8 game weeks. By aiming for budget options you can end up with 1 or 2 extra, and very important, heavy hitters.
In attack I recommend:
– 3-4 players from Man Utd, Arsenal, Chelsea and Man City.
– 1 player from a mid table team (or looks cheap) who has big potential (e.g. -Bolasie/Milner/Tadic/Schneiderlin)
– 3-5 players from mid table and budget teams that rotate well (and ideally take pens or set pieces)
In defence I recommend:
– A nailed on Chelsea defender
– 2 budget keepers who rotate well
– 2 pairs of budget/mid table defenders who rotate well (e.g. Southampton/West Brom and West Ham/Leicester)
Important additions:
– Every team has a stand out player (or two), from defence and attack, who suck up most of their teams points (e.g. Janmaat at Newcastle and Sigurdson at Swansea). These guys can be almost fixture proof as the heavy hitters.
– Plan for injuries, transfers, the fixture landscape changing and spotting the season bargains early. Banked transfers help to react to these.
Following all of this you have a great chance to get a head start on your mini-league rivals.
Good luck for the season and if you like what you have read then please follow –
And many thanks to the following for the proof read and recommendations –
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Morning all! Would appreciate some feedback on my team, made a few minor changes.
O’Shea and Simpson are doubts. Cech and Schwarzer? Don’t get that duo. 😉
Don’t know Abdi, Ozil could do well but maybe not. Hmmm, Mane could explode.
Hey Raz why is O Shea a doubt ?
Just something heard here. I guess it’s the same type of rumor as the Mertesacker one. They will probably both start. Wasn’t O’Shea cap last season?
Which players do we both have? Schwarzer, Cerdic, Hazard, Sterling, Rooney and Benteke. Just 6. Awesome.
So Chester has officially signed for West Brom. Predictions on his price? 4.5? (I say hopefully) haha
First 5 games WBA face City, Chelsea and Soton. Don’t think I want a WBA defender early on. 😉
Didn’t know about his fixtures but still I’d probably bring him in after the hard fixtures or at least keep him in mind.
I’d say more likely to be 5
There’s no chance that Chester will be 4.5m
I know just being hopeful like Smash says he’ll probably be 5 mil.
Thoughts?
thinking of alder and baker out for ward and richards. That way everyone plays.
Looks pretty decent to me as it is
Thanks Smash,
So you think start Cedric and Alder as main defenders and rotate Mings and Martin? (doubt Baker will play much).
Yeah I think so. Then change Baker to a 4 million player once a playing one becomes available. Alder is just stronger than 4.5 options
yea i think that could be a good move defo since spurs didnt have a last great season defensively and palace were more than decent after Pardew.
Must say also I’m loving the balance of this team – I think you’ve got it nearly spot on IMO.
However I’d be a little careful with Wilson for the long term. He scored 25+ in the championship (I think!) which is great obviously, yet so did Danny Ings who only managed ten or something in the pl so I’d just keep your eye out and not be afraid to twist. Could be a differential gem tho.
Also Aguero could miss the start of the season but evey team needs him when hes fit – I have him for now but am waiting on news. If i sell him it’ll be a straight swap so i have the cash to buy him back.
likeing Milner and Rooney a lot also.
Good team i think.
Thanks Bilis.
Thing is Alder will help tighten that defense up nicely, they spent 11mil on him and he had a great season with Saints. Him and Verton can make a solid partnership and when Lloris is back should be great. but then on the other hand having all my defenders starting is appealing. Still undecided.
Wilson is a punt in the beginning, will see how he goes but has great opening fixtures.
Im thinking of Benteke and Sterling in for Cabaye and Aguero in the beginning if Aguero doesnt play and bring them back ASAP. So will see.
Oh yeah for sure! He’s a great player!! Him and Vert were and amazing pair at Aiax so should be the same at Totenham I think. He’s got a great shot on him too and has had a few chances from freekicks. He doesn’t ake them but someone sotra rolls it to him and he shoots so in a indirect way I think he is a treat from all sorts of freekicks – sorta haha.
II mean, honestly Baker could start. I think he’s been playing some preseason but i dunno really. It’s certainly a gamble to go with someone who probably wont play because if another of your defenders gets injured and another gets out of form, you’re in a bit of a pickle lol…
Yeah it’s worth a shot it sounds like! Already used to his team and good record,, and there’s not many better for the price.
Personally im a little skeptical on Benteke for at least the stat of the season. He’s an absoultely amazing player but to utilize him to his full potencial, Liverpool are gonna have to change their style of play quite a bit. For the reason of a teething period im quite cautious at the moment. In the right team tho he’s unplayable.
Sterling sounds good too as much as i hate it, so he could be good.
i think id prefer money in the bank and like kane or something as i wouldn’t want to change up my team too much to fit aguero back in. Your tactic tho will probably get u more points…
Well the plan is 2 in and 2 out. nice and easy.
Can do Silva and Kane actually… but think Sterling might pip Silva in the beginning for points.
Hey guys it’s been a while hasn’t it? Some of you might remember me lol
Sometimes life just gets in the way i guess with the work and sad things it throws at you but let’s not dwell on that – let’s get to the fpl haha
Sooooo first of all I am loving these preseason articicles! Must take forever to make all the graphs for this one but it was a really interesting read! The fixture tracker is useful to no end, and the new signings ones are really useful too. Is it just me or has the pl gained like a lot of players this season? Like a ton buut anyway
Right this is my first draft. There are a few players im 50/50 on so thoughts especially on the likes of Ivan, Aguero, Cabaye and Mitrovic would be really appreciated. Thanks, billisBob
forgot to post the team XD
Would have Huth instead or Morgan (his just finished a tourny so getting extra rest time)
Is Dann going to start?
Sinclair is different to me, also dont know about Mitrovic
Maybe Cedric instead of Bertrand? Not sure when he will be back
Rihgt dont want an injured player haha, I’ll change that!
Yea he’s defo nailed i think and good on the bps. Some top teams are considering bids for him.
Yea Mitrovic I’m weary about but could be a decent differencial? He has a good record tho with 28 goals last season however in a different class of league. Also looks like a pl type of player I think? He dos pllay for Newcastle tho… :/
Sinclair I know sicne my dad suports Villa – he’s scored or look very bright when he’s fit and very cheap. I think with Benteke gone he could be really good but we’ll see. He’s gonna rotate with Albrighton but Im not sure how the fixtures match up.
Yeah for the start of the season it could be a problem… Want southamton defence so Cedric could be a good placeholder or even better hahaha who knows
Thanks for the reply
Fair point, im considering Ward since he should get up the pitch a bit.
Mitrovic would then be competing with a few strikers for the main spot, just check if his nailed on starter.
Have to believe you on Sinclair though haha
Albrighton going to get much game time? was more off than on last season.
Cedric has seemed to have a great preseason, so hopeful on him. Yoshida (4.5m) seems to be the starting CB now that Alder has left, but they looking for a new one I believe.
yeah – he’s a bit cheaper too!
I’d imagine Mitrovic would be nailed since Newcastle didn’t really have much of a striker last season but just lie with all new signings you never know for sure. I should probably check preseason…
lol
yeah he was and it was rubbish because he’s great! He got in the team at the end of last season and that was when they started to make their great escape. I’m not saying it was all down to him, but they probably should have given him a chance sooner. New manager might be different tho…
yea looks good i think – i think someone said they’re going for Caulker.
I just knew you would have Butland in your team.
hahahaha why?
I do like my 4.5 mil keepers! Only just swapped Ruddy from a 4.0 guy XD
Don’t know, I expected Buttland and Hennessey in your team. 😉
It was worse than that!!! I had Hamer – he got loaned out a few days after i bought him!!!! :big-lol: XD
Bob
Great to see you – of course we remember you!
Injury/fitness doubts over Morgan/Bertrand and Aguero and in truth you are best starting with a full bill of good health so I’d change these three.
Yeah Cedric and Huth as replacements for Morgan and Bertrand for now. Wait and see on Aguero.
Yeah i think that’s the best option for a straight swap for sure.
Doesn’t change too much either which is nice – I think both are the same price.
Oooh no actually now I have 0.5 in the bank! 😛 not bad!!
That 0.5m can do Cabaye to Chadli…
or Milner/Hendo… bladdy thing pastes my comment as im tying
typing!!!! I quit…
hhahahaha yeah that’s true!! Tempted by Milner actually a lot…
Hi! Great to see you too!!
Yeah starting with players who wont be starting is not a good way to start is it?hahaha Defo need a full playing team from the start don’t I…
I think Aguero is a must have so i’ll have a way to buy him straight away if he can’t make the start of the season. If he does make it tho fo the first game he’ll be a bit of a differential since the flag i think has stopped people buying him – and righly so though!! No use if he doesn’t play!!
With morgan and Bertrand it shouldn’t be too hard to swap them for team mates. I am missing cover from Arsenal tho do you think there’s better options than that? I’l probably stick with what I’ve got…
Bob
Cech, Koscielny and basically any of their attacking midfielders are good shouts
yeah very true! A little stuck for cash so if i want defencive cover i could sell Cedric or Dann for Mert…
I think i might leave it for now but this defo wont be my final team – it is tempting now with such a good keeper…
Yea i think Walcott is a must have for sure!! could play as a striker and an amazing record for goals per minute i think. Also he like my favourite player haha. Also Wiltshire could be a bit of a gem! 6mil and if he can start the season how he ended it like wow lol. but very risky for now…. Rambo’s very tempting also – don’t know how they’ll all fit in the same team haha
The more I see clips and on United training the more I want Depay in my team….
Anyone else think he will be a instant hero?
He defo looks good for sure!
Top scorer last season in the Eredivisie and a midfeilder? and 8.5 mil? who else was the Eredivisie top scorer? Suarez. Bony too.
Im convinceing myself to get him hahaha
I think Rooney as a centre forward tho will be very very good also…
Yeah but as you can see from my current team further up I dont know how to fit him in
I have the exact same problem Peter :/
I might sell Rooney if he’s good at the start of the season for him – it also frees up a lot of cash…
True but Rooney as lone striker is potent… assume he will be on free kicks and pen’s.
Last time he played there he scored 35 goals in the season (provided that was many hair transplants ago) but still United have a class mid now to give him ball.
But will also look at that option if Depay starts off on fire
yeah no i agree – had him on and off for the past few seasons and even as a midfielder he banged in the points. Still got no clue why he decided to wind down his career before he was even 28!! lol
I was thinking down to form and everything – like considering depay’s much cheaper and a midfeild so gets more points for goals if they’re both doing well he’s the better choice. Yet i do think Rooney as a centre forward will do better than him and if both are doing well maybe ill get both somehow lol.
Twitter reports (talksport for what it is worth seem to be the main lead) that Steven Caulker is having a medical today at Southampton ahead of a loan move for QPR. Will hurt Yoshida chances that one.
Damm Ill have to replace Yoshida. Caulker will prob be 5
Bingo 😉
Sounds great. Reckon he’ll be my Soton defender then.
Depends on his price. At 5m Cedric has the most potential, by far. He’ll be the Clyne/Bertrand of this season. Already +3 assists in preseason.
Don’t know myself Raz. Cedric is a card magnet too, which is why I currently got Fonte instead. But I guess the extra 0.5 and assist potential makes up for it. Just remember that Caulker is a giant on set pieces.
Caulker could well be 5.5. He was 5m for QPR.
I think he’ll come in at £5.0M.