Analytical Guide to Fixtures GW1 – GW8
This article looks to review the importance of a team’s fixtures and how to use rotation in a slightly different way to the existing tools and opinions available on FPL selection.
The highlights (for the opening 8 GW’s) are:
Attacking
– Arsenal and Man United look the strongest of the big teams
– Southampton and Swansea are good for mid priced teams
– Leicester and Bournemouth are likely to be the best budget teams (and both rotate well with Crystal Palace)
Defending
– Chelsea are the stand out team defensively
– Southampton and West ham are good for mid priced teams
– Leicester and West Brom are the best budget options (and rotate well with West ham and Southampton)
In general
– There are some teams that have very strong fixtures and so don’t need to be rotated (Chelsea and the attacks of Arsenal, Man Utd and Man City)
– There are a few teams I would steer well clear of for the first 8 weeks (Newcastle, Watford, Norwich)
– Always remember that some players can be fixture proof; regardless of the team they play for.
– Always have an Exit/Entry strategy in place as team fixtures change, the bargains become obvious and Aguero becomes fit.
If understanding how I got to these conclusions is of interest then read on… otherwise good luck this year.
The importance of rotation for your FPL team….
with analysis on the opening 8 GW’s of the 2015/16 season.
There are some very good fixture analysers (and opinions) out there in the FPL community. Some of them are very helpful for team planning when used correctly. The one thing I have consistently found is that they place too much reliance on rotating pairs, both home and away, (e.g. Newcastle and Sunderland) and less emphasis on the quality of the opposition. Personally I would rather have Stoke away to Sunderland than Newcastle at home to Everton…
An important omission from this article (one for another day) is the importance of having an entry and exit strategy for all your players. Injuries happen, bargains become available, standout players shine, transfers happen and big game players become fit again. Be mindful on this as long term planning is key to a successful season and all poor teams have a couple of good players… Although 2 wildcards does help.
For the purpose of this analysis (and how I like to pick my team) I have a few criteria I like to follow. These are:
– Always separate a team’s attacking potential from its defensive potential.
– Form, playing style, player’s average ability all factor into a team’s potential.
– Don’t underestimate the positive (and negative) impact of transfers/injuries.
– Playing home and away have an impact as well (but it’s not the most important thing).
– Big Teams can have bad fixtures.
– Small Teams can have good fixtures.
– Every team no matter how bad has a couple of standout players (there is an ‘I’ in some teams).
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The opening 8 fixtures
I have chosen to look at the opening 8 fixtures for this year’s season, as you have to plan, but beyond 8-10 weeks is too far in FPL. Remember to factor in your weekly transfers as the fixtures shift and with it so do the fortunes of your budget teams. Having a banked transfer always helps and avoids unnecessary point’s hits.
The opening fixtures look like this:
Based on the opening 8 fixtures I would expect the league table to be ordered something like this:
(*Please note that this reflects the teams overall ability and ,as mentioned above, to get a team’s true potential for FPL you need to break them out into attacking potential and defensive potential.)
Focussing on the overall fixtures could lead to some incorrect assumptions around which FPL players to choose. While on face value the above table suggests it is best to steer clear of the bottom 5-6 teams there is definitely value in some of them. Going on just the overall view of the teams we can see the following likelihood of the teams having positive opening results:
When we split out the teams attacking and defensive ability and look to rotate you can find a lot of value in those bottom (budget) teams. The “Pulis affect” at West Brom is one I particularly like for their defence (especially when rotating with Southampton or Palace).
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Looking at the top 6 teams we can see that for all of them their attacks are likely to do well. However all, except Chelsea, are likely to have a harder time defensively.
In order to achieve an optimal FPL return it is clear that you need to adopt a balanced approach between players from the big 6, mid table and budget teams. The key to the latter 2 is rotation pairs.
To identify which teams you should pick players from it is important to know, defensively and offensively, who needs to rotate and who will stand on their own.
Attack rotation need:
No Rotation
– Arsenal, Chelsea, Man City, Man Utd, Tottenham
Low Rotation
– Liverpool, Southampton
Rotate
– Villa, Bournemouth, Palace, Everton, Leicester, Stoke, Swansea, West ham
Avoid (unless stand out bargain is obvious)
– Newcastle, Norwich, Sunderland, Watford, West Brom
Defence rotation need:
No Rotation
– Chelsea
Low Rotation
– Arsenal, Man City, Man Utd, Southampton
Rotate
– Villa, Bournemouth, Palace, Everton, Leicester, Liverpool, Stoke, Swansea, Tottenham, West Brom, West ham
Avoid (unless stand out bargain is obvious)
– Newcastle, Norwich, Sunderland, Watford
So focussing on the teams with a rotation need who do they rotate well with?
Each team with a rotation need has 2-3 good options. Rotate 1 is the best but in all cases the rotation sees a big positive impact. Team type determines if they are a big 6 (1), mid table (2) or budget team (3) so aiming for budget rotations frees up more cash.
Attacking Rotations:
Defensive Rotations:
There are clearly plenty of options available in both attack and defence. Personally I recommend rotating budget teams with a mid-table team or another budget team. For my defence I will be looking at a combined cost of £9-9.5million per pair. For my attackers I will look to rotate based on my available funds once I have 8-9 of the team selected.
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As a case study we could take newly promoted Bournemouth and look to rotate them with the best budget/Mid table team.
By combining West Hams defence (options at £5.0m) with Bournemouth’s (options at £4.5m) we will be likely to rival that of Man City’s and Arsenal’s £6m defenders. In attack choosing Players such as Bournemouth’s Matt Ritchie (On Pens) and Palace’s Patrick Bamford (championship player of the season) you can fill up 2 attacking slots for less than £12m freeing up cash to get the all important heavy hitters. This might not seem a lot but it’s the difference between Oscar and Hazard in your team. And you get 7-8 good to great fixtures in the next 8 weeks:
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Conclusion:
There are plenty of options available for team rotations in the opening 8 game weeks. By aiming for budget options you can end up with 1 or 2 extra, and very important, heavy hitters.
In attack I recommend:
– 3-4 players from Man Utd, Arsenal, Chelsea and Man City.
– 1 player from a mid table team (or looks cheap) who has big potential (e.g. -Bolasie/Milner/Tadic/Schneiderlin)
– 3-5 players from mid table and budget teams that rotate well (and ideally take pens or set pieces)
In defence I recommend:
– A nailed on Chelsea defender
– 2 budget keepers who rotate well
– 2 pairs of budget/mid table defenders who rotate well (e.g. Southampton/West Brom and West Ham/Leicester)
Important additions:
– Every team has a stand out player (or two), from defence and attack, who suck up most of their teams points (e.g. Janmaat at Newcastle and Sigurdson at Swansea). These guys can be almost fixture proof as the heavy hitters.
– Plan for injuries, transfers, the fixture landscape changing and spotting the season bargains early. Banked transfers help to react to these.
Following all of this you have a great chance to get a head start on your mini-league rivals.
Good luck for the season and if you like what you have read then please follow –
And many thanks to the following for the proof read and recommendations –
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RMT –
Ruddy – Rudd
Azpilecueta – Prodl – Francis – Huth – Richards
Hazard – Ozil – Chadli – Milner – Fletcher
Aguero – Rooney – Wilson
I’ve got mixed thoughts on this team…
You probably want a playing second keeper unless you have courtois or someone. I definitely wouldn’t want to have just Norwich defence for every fixture.
Other than azapi the defence really needs some work. 2 defenders from promoted teams and 2 from teams in a relegation scrap last season really doesnt sound safe. u need at least one more decent defender. At least! It’s only another 0.5 mil for some southamton cover!!!
It’s hard to get haz, ozil, Aguero and Rooney into a team. There’s no doubting all are world class however they eat up combined nearly half your budget on 4 players. They are this price for a reason tho and u could reap the rewards but it is a risk as it means you dont really have tons to fall back on is a few have a bad week.
like miner a lot. He’s having a good preseason and is a great price.
Chadli’s good too…
not sure who Fletcher is but i hope he plays at least!!!
Talked about wilson thuurther up the page.
Guys my team, I need a replacement for ritchie and A better mid than wanyama and is my rotation in defence good, if not please gives suggestions
nk25
There are fixture trackers under the TIPS article at the top of this page showing you all the teams and how they rotate with each other. I assume you’ll play Fonte, Azpi and Toby most weeks? If so then O’Shea and Huth seem reasonably steady back-ups.
I don’t think there is much wrong with trying Ritchie and Deeney and rotating them depending on fixtures but if you can squeeze 0.5M then I’d go Ritchie to Cabaye.
Nk25
Downgrade Butland to a 4m keeper (when will you honestly start him above Cech?)
Maybe Fonte to Cedric saves you another 0.5m
Now you can upgrade Ritchie to Chadli
Oh and maybe Wilson in for Deeney (based on better fixtures)
If I look at fixtures Defoe seems to be the main man. IT sort of depends on where they deploy him though. If central striker, he should be number 1!
I’m thinking of taking risks already might go with J Rod instead of Ben from the start looks good preseason any thoughts ?
That’s my plan Silvers. I’m just worried about spending 7.0m on a striker who might play second fiddle to Pelle!
Yeah I think Pelle will be first choice. With J Rod being eased in though I think he will play off the right like he did before
Hey smash. So basically:
J-Rod – Tadic – Mane
Pelle
…is how you think they’ll start for GW1 then?
I think so. He could start on bench to start though. We will get a good indication though coz saints play in Europa I believe before season starts. Long term I think that’s how they will line up
Pelle scoring a lot of goals in preaseason. So I fear he will be in the central position. 7m for a second striker or winger? You sure?
Hey James will you leave him if he is playing behind Pelle
Please RMT, got 0.5m in bank to put Wally in instead of Santi depending if he plays or not ! Also will prob replace Ballsacker once RB slot confirmed for Arsenal as not sure if Debuchy or Bellenderin ?
GoonerWin
Good squad but I’m not sure on three Arsenal in there. How about Benteke for Giroud? I like Cazorla myself but it is personal preference and Arsenal are fortunate to have so many really good attacking players. Walcott or Cazorla is up to you.
I’m not sure the RB spot will ever be confirmed. I see both players, along with Chambers don’t forget, as being too good to not play every week. Spells rotation to me!
Yeah thanks for the feedback, Chambers is being groomed as a Centre Back so don’t think he will play right back this season. Might switch to some Manure defence is DeGay stays, watched Arsenal win 6-0 at the weekend and looking awesome in pre season so think 3 Arsenal could pay off !?
Gooner
Might do some weeks but one poor result from Arsenal and thats three of your 11 players posting low scores.
Anyone got any news on Costa’s injury?
Looks like his a doubt to start the season
anyone thinking of Falcao?
Hows this front line…
Falcao Bentekkers and Kun
Dangerous I’d say!!!
I’ll copy what i said about benteke earlier here: Personally im a little skeptical on Benteke for at least the stat of the season. He’s an absoultely amazing player but to utilize him to his full potencial, Liverpool are gonna have to change their style of play quite a bit. For the reason of a teething period im quite cautious at the moment. In the right team tho he’s unplayable.
Aguero could miss the start of the season but obviously he’s a must have when fit. No use tho if he won’t play.
Falcao certainly could be a great differential and haul in the points, but i think to have a punt u have to be sure the rest of your team can carry it if he’s rubbish. But he used to be utterly world class and im sure he can get at least close to what he was before! With costa injured and a chance to least the line as a number 9 and not as a strike partner like he was sometimes at man u, i honestly think he could be great. But i’d be wary, because there every chance he might not too, and 3 risky strikers could backfire…
Cheers Bob, some interesting thoughts on all 3.
I think you may have a point about Benteke, he can be a beast but i’m not sure how he will fit in with Pool from the start, might be best watched.
If Costa is out i still wouldn’t know if Jose would go with Remy or Falc
I know everyone plans to bring in Kun on gw4 but i really can’t see him not playing against Chelsea in gw2 imo. He is too important too them and with Jovetic looking Inter bound and Bony injured that leaves them short.
Here’s what Pelli said on it:
I think in football it’s so important to work hard, but also resting has the same importance,” Pellegrini told reporters.
“You have so many games throughout the year that if you don’t give them 30 days after they’ve finished their internationals, it’s very difficult for them to work hard.
“It’s more difficult for the South American players because Pablo Zabaleta, Martin Demichelis, Sergio Aguero and Fernandinho finished later, the first days of July, so they won’t have 30 days.
yeah its a pretty important match and Aguero is a big game player. Even if he’s a substitute id like him in my team. I think im gonna monitor the news as the season approaches – pel might be careful considering his injury record….
Damn it’s annoying that the Chesea – Man City match isn’t on the first day of the gw as I think the new rules made the deadline long enough to see the line ups!! That would be a huge help…
Kun’s still in my team as of yet – honestly I’m a little scared his placeholder will do well and I wont wanna sell him!! lol I do think he’ll play a part against chelsea as well actually… They are interesting comments from pell tho aren’t they…
yea i mean i think I’ll see how thing go for benteke for maybe 3-5 weeks and then make a decision – baring he gts two hat tricks or something haaha
photek
Mourinho appears unconcerned “He felt a little thing in his hamstring. We believe it is just a feeling, no more than that”.
Doesn’t seem too concerned. Wouldn’t rush in Falcao quite yet.
just planting seeds GP 😉
Best striker to start with for the first 3 GW’s?
Looking to fill the Aguero void till his back… have Rooney and Wilson already
PP
Looking at West Ham’s first two home matches (after Arsenal away admittedly), Sakho maybe? Benteke or Pelle might also have claims.
GP,
I can basically get anyone but think it will be just for GW1, said before and Billis echoed it, that I cannot see Pelly not playing his best player against the defending champs.
PP
Would you consider picking him from the start then rather than wasting a transfer?
GP,
Plan is to start with him, but we know how fragile his glass legs are, so looking at a back up plan.
Aguero and Cabaye can easily be replaced by Sterling/Silva and Kane/Beneteke/etc miss out on Costa by 0.5m
i thought i said it
Said what Photek?
Pelle