Analytical Guide to Fixtures GW1 – GW8
This article looks to review the importance of a team’s fixtures and how to use rotation in a slightly different way to the existing tools and opinions available on FPL selection.
The highlights (for the opening 8 GW’s) are:
Attacking
– Arsenal and Man United look the strongest of the big teams
– Southampton and Swansea are good for mid priced teams
– Leicester and Bournemouth are likely to be the best budget teams (and both rotate well with Crystal Palace)
Defending
– Chelsea are the stand out team defensively
– Southampton and West ham are good for mid priced teams
– Leicester and West Brom are the best budget options (and rotate well with West ham and Southampton)
In general
– There are some teams that have very strong fixtures and so don’t need to be rotated (Chelsea and the attacks of Arsenal, Man Utd and Man City)
– There are a few teams I would steer well clear of for the first 8 weeks (Newcastle, Watford, Norwich)
– Always remember that some players can be fixture proof; regardless of the team they play for.
– Always have an Exit/Entry strategy in place as team fixtures change, the bargains become obvious and Aguero becomes fit.
If understanding how I got to these conclusions is of interest then read on… otherwise good luck this year.
The importance of rotation for your FPL team….
with analysis on the opening 8 GW’s of the 2015/16 season.
There are some very good fixture analysers (and opinions) out there in the FPL community. Some of them are very helpful for team planning when used correctly. The one thing I have consistently found is that they place too much reliance on rotating pairs, both home and away, (e.g. Newcastle and Sunderland) and less emphasis on the quality of the opposition. Personally I would rather have Stoke away to Sunderland than Newcastle at home to Everton…
An important omission from this article (one for another day) is the importance of having an entry and exit strategy for all your players. Injuries happen, bargains become available, standout players shine, transfers happen and big game players become fit again. Be mindful on this as long term planning is key to a successful season and all poor teams have a couple of good players… Although 2 wildcards does help.
For the purpose of this analysis (and how I like to pick my team) I have a few criteria I like to follow. These are:
– Always separate a team’s attacking potential from its defensive potential.
– Form, playing style, player’s average ability all factor into a team’s potential.
– Don’t underestimate the positive (and negative) impact of transfers/injuries.
– Playing home and away have an impact as well (but it’s not the most important thing).
– Big Teams can have bad fixtures.
– Small Teams can have good fixtures.
– Every team no matter how bad has a couple of standout players (there is an ‘I’ in some teams).
[divider_1px]
The opening 8 fixtures
I have chosen to look at the opening 8 fixtures for this year’s season, as you have to plan, but beyond 8-10 weeks is too far in FPL. Remember to factor in your weekly transfers as the fixtures shift and with it so do the fortunes of your budget teams. Having a banked transfer always helps and avoids unnecessary point’s hits.
The opening fixtures look like this:
Based on the opening 8 fixtures I would expect the league table to be ordered something like this:
(*Please note that this reflects the teams overall ability and ,as mentioned above, to get a team’s true potential for FPL you need to break them out into attacking potential and defensive potential.)
Focussing on the overall fixtures could lead to some incorrect assumptions around which FPL players to choose. While on face value the above table suggests it is best to steer clear of the bottom 5-6 teams there is definitely value in some of them. Going on just the overall view of the teams we can see the following likelihood of the teams having positive opening results:
When we split out the teams attacking and defensive ability and look to rotate you can find a lot of value in those bottom (budget) teams. The “Pulis affect” at West Brom is one I particularly like for their defence (especially when rotating with Southampton or Palace).
[row][span6]
[/span6]
[span6]
[/span6][/row]
Looking at the top 6 teams we can see that for all of them their attacks are likely to do well. However all, except Chelsea, are likely to have a harder time defensively.
In order to achieve an optimal FPL return it is clear that you need to adopt a balanced approach between players from the big 6, mid table and budget teams. The key to the latter 2 is rotation pairs.
To identify which teams you should pick players from it is important to know, defensively and offensively, who needs to rotate and who will stand on their own.
Attack rotation need:
No Rotation
– Arsenal, Chelsea, Man City, Man Utd, Tottenham
Low Rotation
– Liverpool, Southampton
Rotate
– Villa, Bournemouth, Palace, Everton, Leicester, Stoke, Swansea, West ham
Avoid (unless stand out bargain is obvious)
– Newcastle, Norwich, Sunderland, Watford, West Brom
Defence rotation need:
No Rotation
– Chelsea
Low Rotation
– Arsenal, Man City, Man Utd, Southampton
Rotate
– Villa, Bournemouth, Palace, Everton, Leicester, Liverpool, Stoke, Swansea, Tottenham, West Brom, West ham
Avoid (unless stand out bargain is obvious)
– Newcastle, Norwich, Sunderland, Watford
So focussing on the teams with a rotation need who do they rotate well with?
Each team with a rotation need has 2-3 good options. Rotate 1 is the best but in all cases the rotation sees a big positive impact. Team type determines if they are a big 6 (1), mid table (2) or budget team (3) so aiming for budget rotations frees up more cash.
Attacking Rotations:
Defensive Rotations:
There are clearly plenty of options available in both attack and defence. Personally I recommend rotating budget teams with a mid-table team or another budget team. For my defence I will be looking at a combined cost of £9-9.5million per pair. For my attackers I will look to rotate based on my available funds once I have 8-9 of the team selected.
[divider_1px]
As a case study we could take newly promoted Bournemouth and look to rotate them with the best budget/Mid table team.
By combining West Hams defence (options at £5.0m) with Bournemouth’s (options at £4.5m) we will be likely to rival that of Man City’s and Arsenal’s £6m defenders. In attack choosing Players such as Bournemouth’s Matt Ritchie (On Pens) and Palace’s Patrick Bamford (championship player of the season) you can fill up 2 attacking slots for less than £12m freeing up cash to get the all important heavy hitters. This might not seem a lot but it’s the difference between Oscar and Hazard in your team. And you get 7-8 good to great fixtures in the next 8 weeks:
[divider_1px]
Conclusion:
There are plenty of options available for team rotations in the opening 8 game weeks. By aiming for budget options you can end up with 1 or 2 extra, and very important, heavy hitters.
In attack I recommend:
– 3-4 players from Man Utd, Arsenal, Chelsea and Man City.
– 1 player from a mid table team (or looks cheap) who has big potential (e.g. -Bolasie/Milner/Tadic/Schneiderlin)
– 3-5 players from mid table and budget teams that rotate well (and ideally take pens or set pieces)
In defence I recommend:
– A nailed on Chelsea defender
– 2 budget keepers who rotate well
– 2 pairs of budget/mid table defenders who rotate well (e.g. Southampton/West Brom and West Ham/Leicester)
Important additions:
– Every team has a stand out player (or two), from defence and attack, who suck up most of their teams points (e.g. Janmaat at Newcastle and Sigurdson at Swansea). These guys can be almost fixture proof as the heavy hitters.
– Plan for injuries, transfers, the fixture landscape changing and spotting the season bargains early. Banked transfers help to react to these.
Following all of this you have a great chance to get a head start on your mini-league rivals.
Good luck for the season and if you like what you have read then please follow –
And many thanks to the following for the proof read and recommendations –
[divider_1px]
RMT please
de Gea
Jones, Fuchs, Koscielny,
Albrighton, Tadic, Schneiderlin, Ramsey, Hazard
Ulloa, Costa
Vorm, Pellè, Yoshida, Dier
Umm, HELL NO! Double MU def coverage? Yoshida might not play, Dier probably/maybe will rotate, Pelle on bench? Ack, Schneiderlin won’t get ya many points, Albrighoton well if he’s a starter I like him. But no. WTF? Vorm on the bench while you have DDG? Dude. So much wrong with this team, I don’t know where to start. Are you trolling?
I smelled troll but I didn’t want to be mean and call him out if he’s actually serious (first time and all) =P
whats a Troll?
Somebody that gets his satisfaction from fooling others, I guess. 😉
This site doesn’t have trolls and you’re obviously not one. You had a few odd choices in your 15, also your bench. I’m guessing you just need some help with your team and that’s excactly what we are here for.
Last 2 years only been able to do the following
2013/14 2175 371325
2014/15 1936 427461
So trying to do better this year
Cool. Well you found the right site, mate.
You have a few good players in your team bot you also have a lot of doubts, divide money better and you’ll have a much better team. Ddg might not stay at United, Jones start is not certain. Yoshida start will be a big doubt since Soton want to buy another central defender. You could do Schneiderlin to Wanyama and use that 1m somewhere else.
Personally I would do Costa to Rooney and Pelle to Benteke.
If you do get a 4.5m goalie, I don’t see the point of having Vorm (whom is a second goalie at Spurs, don’t know when Lloris will return.
4.5 should be 5.5.
cheers
I personally do not like the double Southampton cover in attack since they’ll be in the Europa League this year
too much of leicester maybe?
also dier may not be a part of the spurs starting xi at all.
you’ll also need to keep an eye out for yoshida. southampton will defenitely buy another cb.
personally, prefer mane much more over tadic too.
Well back to the drawing board, and start all over again
Any thoughts would be appreciated
de Gea
Jones, Fuchs, Koscielny,
Albrighton, Tadic, Schneiderlin, Ramsey, Hazard
Ulloa, Costa
Vorm, Pellè, Yoshida, Dier
Every time an article comes out, I end up reworking my team lol. What do you guys think of this?
sure about no hazard?
payet might be a risk.
like benteke and kane. i have them too.
chickenB
Remember that Ozil can go ‘missing’ in big games…. I’d opt for Cazorla if I was you.And you’ve chosen three players in midfield who are starting with new teams, Depay, Payet and Sterling…. it could take some time for them to settle.
It’s a gamble alright. Ozil, Payet and Depay have been looking good in preseason though. I might change my mind about Hazard after the Community shield lol
Decent team. I would like to see Cedric in it though, a 5m defender. For me he’s a must.
Not sure about Payet, he’s playing for WHU after all. And their coach, well he sort of sucks. :p
I’d have Hazard over Costa, personally.
Wow… that is an amazing analysis of rotation and the first 8 fixtures. Well done. I did have a headache however by the time I’d finished it. I try to plan some rotation but no where near to that level… keep it simple is my philosophy and take one match at a time
It’s best served in about 4 sittings! Totally get that twinkle. One to read and take bits from and then refer back to for sure.
Quick question. Which mobile apps are a must haves for any self respecting fpl manager?
FFM for those. FPL Manager for you 😉
Sighs. Let’s all pick on the foreign kid. :finger:
You asked for that! Always happy to deliver 😉
I’ve downloaded the fantasy football manager one but the flashing adverts are starting to do my head in a bit now, you can upgrade it I think to be rid of them but you have to pay then.
Crazy people always asking money. :rant:
How much do you want 😉
Some of the you tube adverts are getting a bit ott.
Oddball
Init,
Great analysis, and very detailed. But Newcastle at number 20 for both attack and defense? You really need to get over that Geordie lass who decided to “rotate” you with another 4.5 player!
Init didn’t write it, but he did get rotated. 😉
Think attacking wise the Geordies will do good. Much more possession football will be played. They have terrible fixtures at the start but no way should they be ranked lower than some of those other teams. If master Yoda was here, he would sense a lot of hate. 😉
That sounds like some party right there!
Wasn’t me though mate! That’s not an excuse to the wife either!
elldubya aka Luke who posted earlier is the arthirect. I’m just the bricklayer on this one.
Ha! That did make me chuckle. Is Luke a Sunderland fan by any chance?
No but in seriousness it’s a brilliant in depth analysis and going off statistics from last year and Newcastle’s early fixtures it’s understandable.
What I will say however is that this doesn’t take into consideration the new manager’s tactics (not lumping it upfield to 5ft5″ lone striker Perez), the players coming back from injury last year (aarons, de jong) and the investment made this summer (Wijnaldum, Mitrovic and Mbemba).
Well done though Luke, obviously a great deal of effort has went into this!
Ha ha no I have nothing against Newcastle (argyle fan for what it matters), the model to build this uses fixtures, form, transfer activity, manager (who I think is decent) + a few other bits to predict positive and negative outcomes in each game. From GW9-GW16 things look a lot better for them.
It’s a great article elldubya. It has reinforced some of my ideas but shattered others, so I’m not sure where that leaves me
Thanks for taking the time to put it together.
Haha fair play mate. Good luck this season and hopefully this isn’t your last article.