Is it time to play that wild card or take a points hit?
Analytical Guide to Fixtures GW4-GW11
So the 2015-16 season has started and many experienced FPL managers have had terrible starts (well based on my own mini-leagues anyway). Chelsea’s form is/was seemingly in decline and with some big hitters like Sanchez and Aguero fit again many managers have already started to panic. Key players like Hazard, Rooney, Sterling, Ivanovic and Walcott are leaving us with captain scores of 4 (and in my GW1 even less!). The only players who seem to be delivering are the City old boys, Man Utd’s new right back and Leicester City’s attackers.
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This Article looks to advise on which teams you should be looking at for your player picks between GW4 and 11 based on their fixtures.
In reviewing this there are a number of questions that need to be answered:
• Is it time to play the H1 wildcard?
• Which teams have the best fixtures?
• Should you get Aguero in now? (and who for?)
• Is Mahrez (or alternative Leicester attacker) worth having?
• What about Sanchez?
• And is having so much invested in Hazard a problem?
If you want the quick answers then the conclusions are:
• Wildcards are worth keeping (but can fix immediate problems).
• Man City’s fixtures are amazing!
• Leicester fixtures continue to be good. A mix of Bournemouth (until GW8) and then Newcastle (GW9 to 11) also offer good budget options.
• You need Aguero from GW4 onwards.
• Mahrez (and some of his colleagues) have form, fixtures and price on his side so get him in.
• Funds permitting you should want at least 2 of Sanchez, Silva, Toure, Kolarov and Kompany
• It’s a calculated risk losing Rooney, Benteke or Hazard.
If you want the theory behind these conclusions then read on otherwise good luck with the next few weeks.
Thanks and please follow me on twitter @fpl_equation and @elldubya1
For this article I have looked at GW4 to GW11 to see which teams have good and bad runs. I have then dug a bit deeper with the traditional top 6 and I have also looked at the budget team options good until GW11 (so don’t be surprised if they keep this run going for a while).
So the fixtures look like this:
My key observations are that:
• Big 6 – Arsenal and Man City have the best fixtures
• Mid table teams – Southampton and Stoke look well placed to get some good results.
• Budget teams – Leicester are still the stand out team. Based on fixtures you could do worse than having Bournemouth (up to GW8) and then Newcastle from (GW 9 on).
Looking at the big 6 team’s fixtures in isolation we can see some big winners and losers in terms of likely FPL points
In Attack:
• City are likely to outscore almost all the other big 6 teams, by almost double. It’s easy to see why, with home fixtures to Watford, West Ham, Newcastle, Bournemouth and Norwich in the next 8 weeks.
• Arsenal continue to pose a good attacking choice, but which of the 7+ options available do you go for. They can’t all do well.
• Liverpool are the team to avoid with away games at Man Utd, Everton, Tottenham and Chelsea.
In Defence:
• City, because of fixtures, are likely to have the best returns.
• Chelsea despite early season form should come good so don’t abandon ship too soon. However this comes with a slight warning that Terry got subbed in GW2 and of course sent off in GW3, Ivanovic has been roasted by Swansea and Man City wingers, Azpilicueta has competition at left back (but can play right back), Cahill is Cahill and John Stones may or may not join.
• Liverpool and Spurs are the ones to avoid.
Reviewing the budget team fixtures in isolation we can see that there is a mixed bag of fortunes.
Leicester’s fixtures continue to be pretty favourable (with games against Bournemouth, Villa, Norwich, Palace and West Brom) so don’t be surprised to see the current run continue. Other options include a mixing it up with Bournemouth (until GW8) and Newcastle (from GW9). That combination gives you home games against Leicester, Sunderland, Watford, Norwich and Stoke.
Things to consider from the budget teams are:
• Leicester are the stand out budget team and have good options in all positions.
• Every budget team has a performing player or a very cheap playing option.
• Cheap options facilitate big hitters.
• All of the budget teams have a few good games in the next 8 weeks.
So to the questions posed at the start of the article:
Should you get Aguero?
The answer is a clear yes! If you can afford him then you need him from GW4 on. If you can get another 2 players from City then get them as well. Based on fixtures and form this will shoot you up your leagues (and take away multiple captain decisions). His price is rising so act quick!
Who to dump to get him?
Man Utd’s fixtures start to get worse so you may want to lose Rooney. Aguero will outscore Costa and has better fixtures. Finally Liverpool’s fixtures look pretty ugly so Benteke could also go if sold in combination with an expensive midfielder.
Is Mahrez worth having?
Absolutely and at anything under £6m he is a bargain considering the position he plays and Leicester’s next few fixtures. Albrighton is a midfield alternative at £5.1m if funds are tighter. If you can more easily accommodate a forward then Vardy has started the season well and at £6m is only likely to rise over the coming weeks.
What about Sanchez?
Arsenal are likely to have the second best attacking points returns and Sanchez is likely to be involved in most of their goals (and is as good as a nailed on starter as any of the Arsenal midfield). The verdict is he is a better than nice to have but not a must have yet. Be prepared to act fast on him as this could change fast.
What do you do with a problem like Hazard?
Finally there is the incredibly difficult decision of Eden Hazard. We all have (or had!) him so if people start selling (they will) his price will drop. His fixtures are not as good as others and we have a lot of money tied up. Last season he started slow. Then smashed it from GW10(ish) until the end of the season. Pedro has arrived so should help the teams attack. It’s a really tricky one but selling (with a view to buying back later in the season) could be the option here, but only if it’s for Toure, Silva or Sanchez.
Based on the GW 4 to 11 fixtures my conclusions are:
• Try not to play your wild card yet. Most managers have had bad starts as well and the top teams are probably only 20-30 points ahead (1 good game week for you to get it back). The wildcard will be worth more to you later in the year!
• Fill your boots with Manchester City players!
• Leicester is still the best budget team option.
• You need Aguero and Mahrez (or similar Leicester attacker).
• You should want at least 2 of Sanchez, Silva, Toure, Kolarov and Kompany
• It’s a calculated risk losing Rooney, Benteke and Hazard.
• Form is temporary, class is permanent. In FPL you need a bit of both.
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Good luck for the next few weeks and if you like what you have read then please follow
And many thanks to the following for the proof read and recommendations –
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Evening all,
When we brought you the first of these articles prior to the season kicking off it was quite well received. I’m sure you’ll once more agree that it’s a superb article.
Fabulous analysis Kop. Just what the doctor ordered. Many thanks.
Hey Swiss,
Unfortunately I can’t take any credit for this, you’ve got @elldubya1 to thank.
There should be more posts that start with the word analytical
Managed to miss all the weekends games somehow but the early WC has already been roasted by me, cheers eldubya.
Great read that folks
Thanks
Thanks guys, this is some heady stuff. Lots to dig into for the weekend! One question though, who do I thank for this? Don’t see a name at the bottom like usual.
Hi Red,
You can thank @elldubya1 for this piece of work
Right on, thanks Kop. And thank you @elldubya1 !!
well that’s a thorough read! great effort lads. Can anyone offer some opinion on these two options….
1. Pelle & Depay out. Sanchez & Wilson in
2. Pelle & Payet out. Pedro & Wilson in
I have a feeling the Depay could explode soon, but he’s in a side that is not attacking well. I think you could sell and then come back to him when he starts to get the points.
I’d say that option 1 should be the idea for now. Sanchez has good fixtures. Wilson plays for a team that proved they can score, and relishes offensive play. He’s bound to score more, though perhaps not as prolific as this week.
I’m going for the Sanchez and Pedro option. Taking a risk and losing Hazard.
im nit expecting a hat-trick every week but it seems there’s more chance of him scoring than anyone at Man Utd right now. I really thought/think Depay could pick up big points but like you say it just isn’t happening
Pedro and Wilson is the best option.
Pedro is a better goal scorer than Alexis and will surely get more points this year (probably will be this years top point scorer), I really don’t think there is a better option at this point, Pedro will rip the BPL apart, it’s defences are far too easy for him.
good read.
I have ivanovic and romero .i am not sure what to do with them.
Romero
ivanovic Bellerin, Cedric
Mahrez, Ramsey, hazard, kouyate,hoolahan
aguero, pele
henessey, huth, bojan, mariappa
what do u suggest ?
ivanovic > kompany, Ramsey > silva
No FT left, used it to get mahrez for Mane. his price will definitely rise.
ivanovic > Kompany