Is it time to play that wild card or take a points hit?
Analytical Guide to Fixtures GW4-GW11
So the 2015-16 season has started and many experienced FPL managers have had terrible starts (well based on my own mini-leagues anyway). Chelsea’s form is/was seemingly in decline and with some big hitters like Sanchez and Aguero fit again many managers have already started to panic. Key players like Hazard, Rooney, Sterling, Ivanovic and Walcott are leaving us with captain scores of 4 (and in my GW1 even less!). The only players who seem to be delivering are the City old boys, Man Utd’s new right back and Leicester City’s attackers.
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This Article looks to advise on which teams you should be looking at for your player picks between GW4 and 11 based on their fixtures.
In reviewing this there are a number of questions that need to be answered:
• Is it time to play the H1 wildcard?
• Which teams have the best fixtures?
• Should you get Aguero in now? (and who for?)
• Is Mahrez (or alternative Leicester attacker) worth having?
• What about Sanchez?
• And is having so much invested in Hazard a problem?
If you want the quick answers then the conclusions are:
• Wildcards are worth keeping (but can fix immediate problems).
• Man City’s fixtures are amazing!
• Leicester fixtures continue to be good. A mix of Bournemouth (until GW8) and then Newcastle (GW9 to 11) also offer good budget options.
• You need Aguero from GW4 onwards.
• Mahrez (and some of his colleagues) have form, fixtures and price on his side so get him in.
• Funds permitting you should want at least 2 of Sanchez, Silva, Toure, Kolarov and Kompany
• It’s a calculated risk losing Rooney, Benteke or Hazard.
If you want the theory behind these conclusions then read on otherwise good luck with the next few weeks.
Thanks and please follow me on twitter @fpl_equation and @elldubya1
For this article I have looked at GW4 to GW11 to see which teams have good and bad runs. I have then dug a bit deeper with the traditional top 6 and I have also looked at the budget team options good until GW11 (so don’t be surprised if they keep this run going for a while).
So the fixtures look like this:
My key observations are that:
• Big 6 – Arsenal and Man City have the best fixtures
• Mid table teams – Southampton and Stoke look well placed to get some good results.
• Budget teams – Leicester are still the stand out team. Based on fixtures you could do worse than having Bournemouth (up to GW8) and then Newcastle from (GW 9 on).
Looking at the big 6 team’s fixtures in isolation we can see some big winners and losers in terms of likely FPL points
In Attack:
• City are likely to outscore almost all the other big 6 teams, by almost double. It’s easy to see why, with home fixtures to Watford, West Ham, Newcastle, Bournemouth and Norwich in the next 8 weeks.
• Arsenal continue to pose a good attacking choice, but which of the 7+ options available do you go for. They can’t all do well.
• Liverpool are the team to avoid with away games at Man Utd, Everton, Tottenham and Chelsea.
In Defence:
• City, because of fixtures, are likely to have the best returns.
• Chelsea despite early season form should come good so don’t abandon ship too soon. However this comes with a slight warning that Terry got subbed in GW2 and of course sent off in GW3, Ivanovic has been roasted by Swansea and Man City wingers, Azpilicueta has competition at left back (but can play right back), Cahill is Cahill and John Stones may or may not join.
• Liverpool and Spurs are the ones to avoid.
Reviewing the budget team fixtures in isolation we can see that there is a mixed bag of fortunes.
Leicester’s fixtures continue to be pretty favourable (with games against Bournemouth, Villa, Norwich, Palace and West Brom) so don’t be surprised to see the current run continue. Other options include a mixing it up with Bournemouth (until GW8) and Newcastle (from GW9). That combination gives you home games against Leicester, Sunderland, Watford, Norwich and Stoke.
Things to consider from the budget teams are:
• Leicester are the stand out budget team and have good options in all positions.
• Every budget team has a performing player or a very cheap playing option.
• Cheap options facilitate big hitters.
• All of the budget teams have a few good games in the next 8 weeks.
So to the questions posed at the start of the article:
Should you get Aguero?
The answer is a clear yes! If you can afford him then you need him from GW4 on. If you can get another 2 players from City then get them as well. Based on fixtures and form this will shoot you up your leagues (and take away multiple captain decisions). His price is rising so act quick!
Who to dump to get him?
Man Utd’s fixtures start to get worse so you may want to lose Rooney. Aguero will outscore Costa and has better fixtures. Finally Liverpool’s fixtures look pretty ugly so Benteke could also go if sold in combination with an expensive midfielder.
Is Mahrez worth having?
Absolutely and at anything under £6m he is a bargain considering the position he plays and Leicester’s next few fixtures. Albrighton is a midfield alternative at £5.1m if funds are tighter. If you can more easily accommodate a forward then Vardy has started the season well and at £6m is only likely to rise over the coming weeks.
What about Sanchez?
Arsenal are likely to have the second best attacking points returns and Sanchez is likely to be involved in most of their goals (and is as good as a nailed on starter as any of the Arsenal midfield). The verdict is he is a better than nice to have but not a must have yet. Be prepared to act fast on him as this could change fast.
What do you do with a problem like Hazard?
Finally there is the incredibly difficult decision of Eden Hazard. We all have (or had!) him so if people start selling (they will) his price will drop. His fixtures are not as good as others and we have a lot of money tied up. Last season he started slow. Then smashed it from GW10(ish) until the end of the season. Pedro has arrived so should help the teams attack. It’s a really tricky one but selling (with a view to buying back later in the season) could be the option here, but only if it’s for Toure, Silva or Sanchez.
Based on the GW 4 to 11 fixtures my conclusions are:
• Try not to play your wild card yet. Most managers have had bad starts as well and the top teams are probably only 20-30 points ahead (1 good game week for you to get it back). The wildcard will be worth more to you later in the year!
• Fill your boots with Manchester City players!
• Leicester is still the best budget team option.
• You need Aguero and Mahrez (or similar Leicester attacker).
• You should want at least 2 of Sanchez, Silva, Toure, Kolarov and Kompany
• It’s a calculated risk losing Rooney, Benteke and Hazard.
• Form is temporary, class is permanent. In FPL you need a bit of both.
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Good luck for the next few weeks and if you like what you have read then please follow
And many thanks to the following for the proof read and recommendations –
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Thoughts?
Changed Milner and Hazard for Yaya and Pedro already this week. Happy with that.
Don’t think any more changes are necessary, especially since I’d be taking hits.
But, it’s always good to ask for a second and third opinion!
Only thoughts are straight swaps – e.g. Defoe -> Wilson
0.8 mil in the bank, which helps
Patrick
All looks fine to me. No more transfers needed I would think.
Agreed
I’m not sure whether to play 4 or 3 at the back. If 3, Cedric or Gomez out (Whittaker will definitely be on the bench)
and if 3 at the back, that means Defoe plays
I’m thinking Kolarov, Azpi, Gomez and Cedric at the back
Mahrez, Yaya, Memphis, Pedro
Aguero, Benteke
Hey guys. What’s up?
Yo Raz hows it hanging?
Short shrivelled and to the left?
How’s the points coming?
YES! You know me so well. HAHAHA! Had a decent gameweek and still used my WC.
Saturday I will be flying so I won’t even see how my WC will do that day. HAHA!
My scores! 58 from this week. Happy, to say the least
You?
A paltry 43
Sitting about mid in mini leagues with 116 
You know how to link my team to my 247 profile?
Good job mate. See you don’t have your team linked. Liverpool sort of 0wned Arsenal in the first half last night. You’re a poolman right?
Bentekers was awesome. too bad he didn’t get on the scoresheet. Def. fixture proof and could actually do great against hte bigger teams.
Damn right YNWA. Have been all my life despite living down South. Yea Tekers looked good again but I pissed he missed that goal he shot straight at Cech. How he turned it round the post I’ll never know.
Thoughts on Coutinho? Looking awesome in my eyes.
OAN – How do you link a team?
Think the details are somewhere below here.
Goo to profile/change password. Copy the history page url of your team, from FPL, paste it in website settings.
I like Coutinho, he’s probably their best player with Benteke but I don’t know if he’ll score enough points FPL wise. I have my eyes set on Bentekers, when fit and in form he’s fixture proof, as he showed yesterday. Too bad his aim has been off. Really annoyed by a lot of players whom had their aims off: Benteke/Mane/Depay/Kun. Such big chances missed.
Hi Raz!
How’s it going?
FPL wise, okay. Had a score of ummmmmmmmmmmmmmm 50-4 (Sterling to Depay, lol). Right now on wilcard, don’t know why, was so busy with other stuff I needed to activate it to distract me from that other stuff. So to speak. :p
It works. Anyway, already had a decent team, now perfect though. Bit of a risk before IB but I don’t care.
How we are lining up for next GW.
Might have to wildcard GW5 but let’s see.
Team looks good. If you have a FT, maybe lose Sakho?
+1, maybe get Diouf before he goes up
Used FT on getting Tadic out and brining in Shaqiri.
If Sahko doesn’t play vs Lvpool then got Yoshida to come off the bench.
Team looks good. My wildcard is active right now. Wanted Wanyama/Merte/Hazard/Mane out. Could be a stupid move since I did better than many WC users the past GW. Also, I probably could’ve waited a few more days. Sort of tired of waiting though and my players dropping. Now I’ll just have good players and risers.
Anyway, my point. Good thing you kept your wildcard, might be key for after the next GW. I would prefer cheaper options to Hazard/Ivanovic. Rest looks good and good outscore this weeks favs.
I’m holding on to Eden, I know he will come good eventually, Sterling like-wise.
11.5m is a lot of money when you have Pedro at 9.5m, he was more direct and actually looks like he’ll be stealing a lot of points. I have the same feeling with Depay, dude could’ve scored me plenty of chances/goals in the last game. He needs to get his f-ing aim right. He was on everything again though, corner kicks/free kicks/ set pieces and it wouldn’t surprise me if they put him on penalty kicks, on that note, that’s the only way Rooney can probably still score. HAHAHA!
Fudgy
Looks OK. FT or used up already?
Used unfortunately, had to rid of Tadic!
Hi Guys
Think I need to wildcard have 3 players who don’t play and have had a horrible start to the season.
This is my suggested team..
Any suggestions or improvements?
Mata or depay?
Do I have enough city coverage?
Morrison to weak as my 4th mid?
I have 1.8m in the bank. Can this be utilised?
Appreciate any ideas
Mata or Depay? – Neither. United attack is pretty poor and fixtures are getting tougher.
Do I have enough city coverage? – I would get a mid in there.
Morrison to weak as my 4th mid? – Probably, yes.
I have 1.8m in the bank. Can this be utilized? – Mata -> Silva
Sorry, Morrison is okay once he stays fit.
Hmmm. I prefer just to have Benteke, Liverpool were awesome versus Arsenal yesterday though. Kone still has 4 or 5 hard fixtures, after GW10 he looks a good option (all Everton players do). If Depay only made his chances he would sit on a big haul, like Mane a few weeks ago. Bit annoying, United attacking still not optimal though so I understand why people bet against them and Depay. If they get a class striker though would help. Out of Mata and Depay I would go with Depay because Depay is also on corners/free kicks/direct free kicks now.
I think I would prefer Gomez over Clyne at the moment. Have him in my WC team anyway. Morrison is a good shout at 4.9m, he’s on everything. Though I doubt he’ll be on penalty’s after the last game.
A little help guys. What changers, if any would you make to my team this week?.
Shaw, Depay, Payet and Kone are the ones i’d be looking to move on. Not sure which to move out first though, probably Depay.
NIN – Do you hate Depay? He’s a great player who’s now on set pieces. I think he’ll definitely get an assist or a goal this weekend.
Ant – I would drop Shaw since you already have Romero.
Hello All,
Much better GW for me after using the WC. Got 62 points and looking to push on over the next few GW. I’ve got 1 FT for the below, but I’m considering maybe taking a 4 point hit, need your thoughts on the best way to go about it or if it’s even worth doing? The bits I’m not sure about are:
Double coverage at the back with Aston Villa (got Sunderland at home)
Depay + Sakho out for Wilson + Toure, but would be a 4 point hit
Also experimenting with what formation to play this week as my defense could have a strong week
Thanks for your help
I wouldnt double up on Villa defence so put Darmien back in.
Mark90 – I think your defence is way too expensive. Maybe leave it this week and make a double change next week and get some funds into midfield. Either that or get Yaya in for Depay if you can.