Is it time to play that wild card or take a points hit?
Analytical Guide to Fixtures GW4-GW11
So the 2015-16 season has started and many experienced FPL managers have had terrible starts (well based on my own mini-leagues anyway). Chelsea’s form is/was seemingly in decline and with some big hitters like Sanchez and Aguero fit again many managers have already started to panic. Key players like Hazard, Rooney, Sterling, Ivanovic and Walcott are leaving us with captain scores of 4 (and in my GW1 even less!). The only players who seem to be delivering are the City old boys, Man Utd’s new right back and Leicester City’s attackers.
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This Article looks to advise on which teams you should be looking at for your player picks between GW4 and 11 based on their fixtures.
In reviewing this there are a number of questions that need to be answered:
• Is it time to play the H1 wildcard?
• Which teams have the best fixtures?
• Should you get Aguero in now? (and who for?)
• Is Mahrez (or alternative Leicester attacker) worth having?
• What about Sanchez?
• And is having so much invested in Hazard a problem?
If you want the quick answers then the conclusions are:
• Wildcards are worth keeping (but can fix immediate problems).
• Man City’s fixtures are amazing!
• Leicester fixtures continue to be good. A mix of Bournemouth (until GW8) and then Newcastle (GW9 to 11) also offer good budget options.
• You need Aguero from GW4 onwards.
• Mahrez (and some of his colleagues) have form, fixtures and price on his side so get him in.
• Funds permitting you should want at least 2 of Sanchez, Silva, Toure, Kolarov and Kompany
• It’s a calculated risk losing Rooney, Benteke or Hazard.
If you want the theory behind these conclusions then read on otherwise good luck with the next few weeks.
Thanks and please follow me on twitter @fpl_equation and @elldubya1
For this article I have looked at GW4 to GW11 to see which teams have good and bad runs. I have then dug a bit deeper with the traditional top 6 and I have also looked at the budget team options good until GW11 (so don’t be surprised if they keep this run going for a while).
So the fixtures look like this:
My key observations are that:
• Big 6 – Arsenal and Man City have the best fixtures
• Mid table teams – Southampton and Stoke look well placed to get some good results.
• Budget teams – Leicester are still the stand out team. Based on fixtures you could do worse than having Bournemouth (up to GW8) and then Newcastle from (GW 9 on).
Looking at the big 6 team’s fixtures in isolation we can see some big winners and losers in terms of likely FPL points
In Attack:
• City are likely to outscore almost all the other big 6 teams, by almost double. It’s easy to see why, with home fixtures to Watford, West Ham, Newcastle, Bournemouth and Norwich in the next 8 weeks.
• Arsenal continue to pose a good attacking choice, but which of the 7+ options available do you go for. They can’t all do well.
• Liverpool are the team to avoid with away games at Man Utd, Everton, Tottenham and Chelsea.
In Defence:
• City, because of fixtures, are likely to have the best returns.
• Chelsea despite early season form should come good so don’t abandon ship too soon. However this comes with a slight warning that Terry got subbed in GW2 and of course sent off in GW3, Ivanovic has been roasted by Swansea and Man City wingers, Azpilicueta has competition at left back (but can play right back), Cahill is Cahill and John Stones may or may not join.
• Liverpool and Spurs are the ones to avoid.
Reviewing the budget team fixtures in isolation we can see that there is a mixed bag of fortunes.
Leicester’s fixtures continue to be pretty favourable (with games against Bournemouth, Villa, Norwich, Palace and West Brom) so don’t be surprised to see the current run continue. Other options include a mixing it up with Bournemouth (until GW8) and Newcastle (from GW9). That combination gives you home games against Leicester, Sunderland, Watford, Norwich and Stoke.
Things to consider from the budget teams are:
• Leicester are the stand out budget team and have good options in all positions.
• Every budget team has a performing player or a very cheap playing option.
• Cheap options facilitate big hitters.
• All of the budget teams have a few good games in the next 8 weeks.
So to the questions posed at the start of the article:
Should you get Aguero?
The answer is a clear yes! If you can afford him then you need him from GW4 on. If you can get another 2 players from City then get them as well. Based on fixtures and form this will shoot you up your leagues (and take away multiple captain decisions). His price is rising so act quick!
Who to dump to get him?
Man Utd’s fixtures start to get worse so you may want to lose Rooney. Aguero will outscore Costa and has better fixtures. Finally Liverpool’s fixtures look pretty ugly so Benteke could also go if sold in combination with an expensive midfielder.
Is Mahrez worth having?
Absolutely and at anything under £6m he is a bargain considering the position he plays and Leicester’s next few fixtures. Albrighton is a midfield alternative at £5.1m if funds are tighter. If you can more easily accommodate a forward then Vardy has started the season well and at £6m is only likely to rise over the coming weeks.
What about Sanchez?
Arsenal are likely to have the second best attacking points returns and Sanchez is likely to be involved in most of their goals (and is as good as a nailed on starter as any of the Arsenal midfield). The verdict is he is a better than nice to have but not a must have yet. Be prepared to act fast on him as this could change fast.
What do you do with a problem like Hazard?
Finally there is the incredibly difficult decision of Eden Hazard. We all have (or had!) him so if people start selling (they will) his price will drop. His fixtures are not as good as others and we have a lot of money tied up. Last season he started slow. Then smashed it from GW10(ish) until the end of the season. Pedro has arrived so should help the teams attack. It’s a really tricky one but selling (with a view to buying back later in the season) could be the option here, but only if it’s for Toure, Silva or Sanchez.
Based on the GW 4 to 11 fixtures my conclusions are:
• Try not to play your wild card yet. Most managers have had bad starts as well and the top teams are probably only 20-30 points ahead (1 good game week for you to get it back). The wildcard will be worth more to you later in the year!
• Fill your boots with Manchester City players!
• Leicester is still the best budget team option.
• You need Aguero and Mahrez (or similar Leicester attacker).
• You should want at least 2 of Sanchez, Silva, Toure, Kolarov and Kompany
• It’s a calculated risk losing Rooney, Benteke and Hazard.
• Form is temporary, class is permanent. In FPL you need a bit of both.
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Good luck for the next few weeks and if you like what you have read then please follow
And many thanks to the following for the proof read and recommendations –
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Afternoon all,
0FT, nothing in the bank but how do I look for GW4?
Praying Mert recovers from illness to face Newcastle but I suppose I have Francis on the bench if not (dare I say it, Coates too ;))
Anything worth taking a hit for? Do have my WC but don’t think I need it just yet.
The reason I played my WC was the alarming rate the best players were rising, Silva, Yaya, Zab, Sagna, Mahrez, Gomis, Ayew I was worried I wouldn’t be able to afford the team I wanted so I have WC’d.My team value has gone from 99.8 to 100.3 in 2 days haha. Each to their own though, your team looks ok but you have a lot of players losing value, Pelle, Sakho, Sterling, Ozil, Hazard, Mert, Coates are all predicted to drop in the next 2 days, Hazard tonight. That potentially 0.7m less to spend.
Captain, on FFF it says Haz is the only one likely to go down in the next two days. Looking at the NTIs it looks like few of those have the potential to drop this week, which site are you using?
My team value is already £100.4m with Mahrez and Sagna to go up tonight.
Also..I had a think about my WC team and it wouldn’t be too dissimilar to my current team minus the likes of Coates and Sakho. Given the way the game has started with star names not firing I feel it is a little imprudent to activate the wildcard in order to chase the early points scorers as a change in the tide would see the price structures etc. we spent countless hours achieving before the start out the window without a second WC to do anything about it until the very end of December.
Having said that I Wildcarded successfully after GW2 last year so only time will tell!
Any love for Rudy Gestede around here?
20 goals from 39 games for Blackburn last season and has already scored a winner in GW1.
People at FPL must rate him given he cost 0.5 more than the Deeney/Wilson pack.
Their fixtures see them at home 4 of their next 7, including Sunderland, WBA, Stoke and Swansea.
DMC,
Interesting. Didn’t really know who he was to be honest. Do you know why he only played 38minutes against UTD? Those fixtures look tasty though could be a good punt if he’s nailed on.
full time – Cheers mate. Yeah, I think he’s nailed on. He only joined on the 31th July so that should be the main reason why he came off the bench the first two GW. He played 90m on GW3 and I’d be very surprised if he didn’t own the spot for the reminder of the season. I mean, the alternatives are … there are no alternatives!! A bit of a punt of course.
Is haz->Pedro for ft the way to go or nah? or will pedro make haz better and haz will start raking in the points
Guys my team do u think I need to use my wc
Loads of drops coming soon apprently like Coates sakho mane
I don’t want to be behind on these drops
Plus suggestions and changes in my team
Hey Yaco,
I’m in the same boat and have got my wildcard active, couldn’t bear the thought of loosing all that money! I really should have done it last week as lots of price changing recently. If your not happy with your team then wildcard but if you can just tinker with it and hold your wildcard then that’s the best option. Try linking your team.
Looks a lot like the team I had and I did wildcard. Instead of Jenkinson I had Mertesacker though, also had Mane, Cedric, Coates. Was sort of tired of it all and just updated my team to people that shown class. Don’t think you can use wildcard too early as they claim here, it’s a gut thing, you decide you do it.
I waited till yesterday though. Anyway, noticed I can make a super team with my WC.
I will sell Ronney
Shall i get giroud or wilson?
Giroud.
So is Gomez only playing till Flanagan is fit?
Flanagan is pretty shite compared to Gomez. You sure about that?
No not sure, just asking the question because I ain’t got a clue!
Flanagan? Nah, Moreno is likely to feature at some point. Probably in a few games when Gomez is serving his yellow cards suspension! haha